Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Sri Lanka: Macroeconomic Developments in
Charts
Third Quarter 2018
Central Bank of Sri LankaEconomic Research Department
IndexReal Sector and Inflation
Real GDP Growth (Annual /Quarterly)
Sectoral GDP Growth
Per Capita GDP
Index of Industrial Production (IIP)
Unemployment
Poverty
CCPI based Inflation
NCPI based Inflation
Producer's Price Index (PPI)
External SectorEarnings from Merchandise Exports
Expenditure from Merchandise Imports
Trade Balance
Tourism: Arrivals and Earnings
Tourism: Monthly Arrivals
Workers’ Remittances
Current Account Balance
Foreign Direct Investment Flows
Balance of Payment
Gross Official Reserves
Exchange Rate Movements
Fiscal SectorGovernment Revenue
Government Expenditure
Public Investment
Budget Deficit
Central Government Debt
Monetary SectorReserve Money Growth and Money Multiplier
Broad Money Growth
Credit to the Private Sector
Net Credit to Government
Credit to Public Corporations
Net Foreign Assets
Policy Interest Rates and Overnight Money Market Rates
Treasury Bill Yields and the Yield Curve
Market Interest Rates
Financial SectorBanking Sector Indicators (i)
Banking Sector Indicators (ii)
Banking Density
Non-Bank Financial Sector Indicators (i)
Non-Bank Financial Sector Indicators (ii)
Stock Market Performance
Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department
Real Sector and Inflation
Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department
Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department
Real GDP GrowthAnnual Real GDP Growth Quarterly Real GDP Growth
Source: Department of Census and Statistics
Note: Data from 2011 are based on the base year 2010 GDP estimates of Department of Census and Statistics Data are based on latest GDP estimates made available on 18 December 2018 by the Department of Census and Statistics
6.0
-1.5
4.0
5.95.4
6.2
7.7
6.8
6.0
3.5
8.08.4
9.1
3.4
5.0 5.04.5
3.3
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Gro
wth
Rat
e (
%)
1.3
2.2
5.1
10.6
3.9
7.1
5.9
3.3
5.9
1.9
4.5
5.4
3.43.0 3.2
3.5 3.4 3.6
2.9
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2014
-Q1
2014
-Q2
2014
-Q3
2014
-Q4
2015
-Q1
2015
-Q2
2015
-Q3
2015
-Q4
2016
-Q1
2016
-Q2
2016
-Q3
2016
-Q4
2017
-Q1
2017
-Q2
2017
-Q3
2017
-Q4
2018
-Q1
2018
-Q2
2018
-Q3
Gro
wth
Rat
e (
%)
Sectoral GDP Growth
7.8
4.32.7
3.84.3
8.85.9
0.4
-4.4 -5.6
1.4
-6.2
-4.4-3.1 -3.0
7.15.6
4.23.3
-10
-5
0
5
10
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Gro
wth
Rat
e (
%)
Agriculture
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
-0.9-1.5
9.0
13.3
-1.4
4.63.6
2.5
13.9
0.72.4
5.6
3.7
5.6 5.34.1
1.22.3 1.9
-5
0
5
10
15
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Gro
wth
Rat
e (
%)
Industry
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
1.4
3.4 2.8
11.6
6.47.5
6.8
3.53.3 3.3
5.7 6.2
4.3
2.7 2.8 3.24.6
4.63.9
0
5
10
15
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Gro
wth
Rat
e (
%)
Services
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department
Note: Data are based on the base year 2010 GDP estimates of Department of Census and StatisticsData are based on latest GDP estimates made available on 18 December 2018 by the Department of Census and Statistics
Source: Department of Census and Statistics
Note: Data from 2011 are based on the base year 2010 GDP estimates of Department of Census and Statistics and updated with latest population dataData are based on latest GDP estimates made available on 18 September 2018 by the Department of Census and Statistics
Per Capita GDP
869 838 874985
1,0631,242
1,4231,614
2,011 2,054
2,744
3,125
3,351
3,609
3,821 3,842 3,857
4,073
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
US
$
Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department
Source: Department of Census and StatisticsCentral Bank of Sri Lanka
Index of Industrial Production (IIP)*
Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department
Source: Department of Census and Statistics
*Based on the Index of Industrial Production (IIP,2015=100)
103.1
102.0
107.8
97.0
102.6
105.2
104.1103.6
101.6
104.7104.3103.3
104.4103.4
110.1
98.3
103.7104.4104.8
109.0
107.7108.0108.6
107.7
108.9
103.9
110.3
97.7
105.7104.8
105.9
109.4
106.9
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
110
112Ja
n-1
6
Feb
-16
Mar
-16
Ap
r-16
May
-16
Jun
-16
Jul-1
6
Au
g-1
6
Se
p-1
6
Oct
-16
No
v-16
De
c-16
Jan
-17
Feb
-17
Mar
-17
Ap
r-17
May
-17
Jun
-17
Jul-1
7
Au
g-1
7
Se
p-1
7
Oct
-17
No
v-17
De
c-17
Jan
-18
Feb
-18
Mar
-18
Ap
r-18
May
-18
Jun
-18
Jul-1
8
Au
g-1
8
Se
p-1
8
%
Unemployment
Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department
Source: Department of Census and Statistics
7.67.9
8.88.4 8.3
7.7
6.5
6.0
5.45.8
4.9
4.24.0
4.4 4.34.7
4.44.2 4.1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Q3
%
Poverty
Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department
Source: Department of Census and Statistics
28.8
22.7
15.2
8.9
6.7
4.1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1995/1996 2002 2006/2007 2009/2010 2012/2013 2016
%
Poverty Headcount Ratio
3.83.9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Se
p-1
5
No
v-15
Jan
-16
Mar
-16
May
-16
Jul-1
6
Se
p-1
6
No
v-16
Jan
-17
Mar
-17
May
-17
Jul-1
7
Se
p-1
7
No
v-17
Jan
-18
Mar
-18
May
-18
Jul-1
8
Se
p-1
8
%
Core (Y-o-Y) Core (Annual Avg.)
CCPI based Inflation*
CCPI based Headline Inflation CCPI based Core Inflation**
Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department
Source: Department of Census and Statistics
4.3
5.4
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Se
p-1
5
No
v-15
Jan
-16
Mar
-16
May
-16
Jul-1
6
Se
p-1
6
No
v-16
Jan
-17
Mar
-17
May
-17
Jul-1
7
Se
p-1
7
No
v-17
Jan
-18
Mar
-18
May
-18
Jul-1
8
Se
p-1
8
%
Headline (Y-o-Y) Headline (Annual Avg.)
*Based on the Colombo Consumer Price Index (CCPI, 2013=100)
**Core Inflation is calculated by excluding volatile Food, energy and transport from the CCPI
NCPI based Inflation*
Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department
Source: Department of Census and Statistics
NCPI based Headline Inflation NCPI based Core Inflation**
0.9
4.0
(2)
0
2
4
6
8
10
Se
p-1
5
No
v-15
Jan
-16
Mar
-16
May
-16
Jul-1
6
Se
p-1
6
No
v-16
Jan
-17
Mar
-17
May
-17
Jul-1
7
Se
p-1
7
No
v-17
Jan
-18
Mar
-18
May
-18
Jul-1
8
Se
p-1
8
%
Headline (Y-o-Y) Headline (Annual Avg.)
3.1
2.4
0
2
4
6
8
Se
p-1
5
No
v-15
Jan
-16
Mar
-16
May
-16
Jul-1
6
Se
p-1
6
No
v-16
Jan
-17
Mar
-17
May
-17
Jul-1
7
Se
p-1
7
No
v-17
Jan
-18
Mar
-18
May
-18
Jul-1
8
Se
p-1
8
%
Core (Y-o-Y) Core (Annual Avg.)
*Based on the National Consumer Price Index (2013=100)
**Core Inflation is calculated by excluding volatile Food, energy and transport from the NCPI
Producer's Price Index (PPI)*
Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department
Source: Department of Census and Statistics
129.1
145.1
121.8
82.580
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
Jan
uar
y
Mar
ch
May
July
Se
pte
mb
er
No
vem
be
r
Jan
uar
y
Mar
ch
May
July
Se
pte
mb
er
No
vem
be
r
Jan
uar
y
Mar
ch
May
July
Se
pte
mb
er
No
vem
be
r
Jan
uar
y
Mar
ch
May
July
Se
pte
mb
er
No
vem
be
r
Jan
uar
y
Mar
ch
May
July
Se
pte
mb
er
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
All Items Agriculture Manufacturing Electricity & Water Supply
*Based on the Producer’s Price Index (PPI,2013 Q4=100)
External Sector
Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department
Earnings from Merchandise Exports
Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department
Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka and Sri Lanka Customs
Merchandise Exports - Monthly Merchandise Exports - Annual
700
750
800
850
900
950
1,000
1,050
1,100
1,150
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
US
$ m
n
2015 2016 2017 2018
5.54.8 4.7
5.15.8
6.36.9
7.68.1
7.1
8.6
10.6
9.810.4
11.110.510.3
11.4
8.9
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Jan
-Se
p
US
$ b
n
Expenditure on Merchandise Imports
Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department
Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka and Sri Lanka Customs
Merchandise Imports - MonthlyMerchandise Imports - Annual
7.36.0 6.1 6.7
8.08.9
10.311.3
14.1
10.2
13.5
20.319.2
18.0
19.418.919.2
21.0
16.9
0
5
10
15
20
25
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Jan
-Se
p
US
$ b
n
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
1,700
1,800
1,900
2,000
2,100
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
US
$ m
n
2015 2016 2017 2018
Trade Balance
-1.8
-1.2-1.4 -1.5
-2.2-2.5
-3.4-3.7
-6.0
-3.1
-4.8
-9.7-9.4
-7.6
-8.3 -8.4-8.9
-9.6
-8.0
-12.0
-10.0
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Jan
-Se
p
US
$ b
n
Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department
Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka
TourismArrivals and Earnings Monthly Arrivals
Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department
Source: SLTDASource: Central Bank of Sri Lanka and Sri Lanka Tourist Development Authority (SLTDA)
70,000
90,000
110,000
130,000
150,000
170,000
190,000
210,000
230,000
250,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Nu
mb
er
2015 2016 2017 2018
252 213 363454 408 429 410 385 342 350
576
8301,039
1,715
2,431
2,981
3,518
3,925
3,212
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Jan
-Se
p
Nu
mb
er
US
$ m
n
Earnings from tourism Tourist arrivals (RHA)
Workers’ Remittances
1,160 1,155 1,287 1,414 1,305
1,968 2,161
2,502
2,918
3,330
4,116
5,145
5,985
6,407
7,018 6,980 7,242 7,164
5,277
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Jan
-Se
p
US
$ m
n
Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department
Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka
Current Account Balance
Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department
Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka
-1.1
-0.2 -0.2-0.1
-0.6 -0.7
-1.5-1.4
-3.9
-0.2
-1.1
-4.6
-4.0
-2.5
-2.0-1.9
-1.7
-2.3-2.2
-5.0
-4.5
-4.0
-3.5
-3.0
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Jan
-Se
p
US
$ b
n
Foreign Direct Investment Inflows
175 82
197 229 223 272
604 734
889
601 516
1,066
1,382 1,437
1,635
1,160 1,078
1,913 1,801
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,50020
00
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Jan
-S
ep
US
$ m
n
Central Bank of Sri LankaEconomic Research Department
Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka, Board of Investment and Colombo Stock Exchange
Balance of Payments
-0.5
0.20.3
0.5
-0.2
0.5
0.2
0.5
-1.4
2.7
0.9
-1.1
0.2
1.0
1.4
-1.5
-0.5
2.1
-0.7
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.020
00
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Jan
-Se
p
US
$ b
n
Overall Balance
Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department
Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka
Gross Official Reserves
Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department
Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
De
c-14
Mar
-15
Jun
-15
Se
p-1
5
De
c-15
Mar
-16
Jun
-16
Se
p-1
6
De
c-16
Mar
-17
Jun
-17
Se
p-1
7
De
c-17
Mar
-18
Jun
-18
Se
p-1
8
Mo
nth
s
US
$ b
n
Gross Official Reserves and Months of Imports
Gross Official Reserves Months of Imports (RHA)
Exchange Rate Movements
Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka
Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department
120125130135140145150155160165170175
Jun
-14
Sep
-14
De
c-1
4M
ar-1
5Ju
n-1
5Se
p-1
5D
ec-
15
Mar
-16
Jun
-16
Sep
-16
De
c-1
6M
ar-1
7Ju
n-1
7Se
p-1
7D
ec-
17
Mar
-18
Jun
-18
Sep
-18
Rs. US Dollar
170
180
190
200
210
220
230
Jun
-14
Sep
-14
De
c-1
4M
ar-1
5Ju
n-1
5Se
p-1
5D
ec-
15
Mar
-16
Jun
-16
Sep
-16
De
c-1
6M
ar-1
7Ju
n-1
7Se
p-1
7D
ec-
17
Mar
-18
Jun
-18
Sep
-18
Rs. Sterling Pound
135
145
155
165
175
185
195
205
Jun
-14
Sep
-14
De
c-1
4M
ar-1
5Ju
n-1
5Se
p-1
5D
ec-
15
Mar
-16
Jun
-16
Sep
-16
De
c-1
6M
ar-1
7Ju
n-1
7Se
p-1
7D
ec-
17
Mar
-18
Jun
-18
Sep
-18
Rs. Euro
1.00
1.10
1.20
1.30
1.40
1.50
1.60
Jun
-14
Sep
-14
De
c-1
4M
ar-1
5Ju
n-1
5Se
p-1
5D
ec-
15
Mar
-16
Jun
-16
Sep
-16
De
c-1
6M
ar-1
7Ju
n-1
7Se
p-1
7D
ec-
17
Mar
-18
Jun
-18
Sep
-18
Rs. Japanese Yen
1.90
2.00
2.10
2.20
2.30
2.40
2.50
Jun
-14
Sep
-14
De
c-1
4M
ar-1
5Ju
n-1
5Se
p-1
5D
ec-
15
Mar
-16
Jun
-16
Sep
-16
De
c-1
6M
ar-1
7Ju
n-1
7Se
p-1
7D
ec-
17
Mar
-18
Jun
-18
Sep
-18
Rs. Indian Rupee
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
Jun
-14
Sep
-14
De
c-1
4M
ar-1
5Ju
n-1
5Se
p-1
5D
ec-
15
Mar
-16
Jun
-16
Sep
-16
De
c-1
6M
ar-1
7Ju
n-1
7Se
p-1
7D
ec-
17
Mar
-18
Jun
-18
Sep
-18
Rs. Australian Dollar
Fiscal Sector
Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department
Government Revenue16.8 16.6 16.6
15.2 14.915.5
16.315.8
14.914.5
12.713.4
12.0 11.911.5
13.3
14.213.8
10.29.8
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1820
00
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2017
Jan
-Se
p
2018
Jan
-Se
p
% o
f G
DP
Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department
Source: Ministry of Finance and Mass Media
Note: Information from 2010 are based on rebased (2010 prices) estimates of GDP published by the Department of Census and StatisticsData (2017) are based on latest GDP estimates made available on 18 December 2018 by the Department of Census and Statistics
Government ExpenditureRecurrent Expenditure
20.2 21.6
20.9
18.4 18.6 18.1
18.6 17.4 16.9
18.2
14.6 14.213.0 12.6 12.8
15.514.8 14.5
11.1 10.9
0
5
10
15
20
25
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2017
Jan
-Se
p
2018
Jan
-Se
p
% o
f G
DP
Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department
Source: Ministry of Finance and Mass Media
6.5
5.9
4.6 4.6 4.2
5.8 5.6
6.1 5.7
6.7
5.35.7
4.9 4.84.6
5.4
4.8 4.8
3.5
3.0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2017
Jan
-Se
p
2018
Jan
-Se
p
% o
f G
DP
Capital and Net Lending
Note: Information from 2010 are based on rebased (2010 prices) estimates of GDP published by the Department of Census and StatisticsData (2017) are based on latest GDP estimates made available on 18 December 2018 by the Department of Census and Statistics
Public Investment
6.4
5.9
4.6
5.04.8
6.36.0
6.4
6.0
6.8
5.65.8
5.1 5.04.7
5.5
5.0 4.9
3.53.2
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2017
Jan
-Se
p
2018
Jan
-Se
p
% o
f G
DP
Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department
Source: Ministry of Finance and Mass Media
Note: Information from 2010 are based on rebased (2010 prices) estimates of GDP published by the Department of Census and StatisticsData (2017) are based on latest GDP estimates made available on 18 December 2018 by the Department of Census and Statistics
Budget Deficit
9.5
10.4
8.5
7.3 7.57.0 7.0 6.9 7.0
9.9
7.0
6.2
5.6 5.45.7
7.6
5.4 5.5
4.3 4.1
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
17
Jan
-Se
p
20
18
Jan
-Se
p
% o
f G
DP
Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department
Source: Ministry of Finance and Mass Media
Note: Information from 2010 are based on rebased (2010 prices) estimates of GDP published by the Department of Census and StatisticsData (2017) are based on latest GDP estimates made available on 18 December 2018 by the Department of Census and Statistics
Note: Information from 2010 are based on rebased (2010 prices) estimates of GDP published by the Department of Census and StatisticsData (2017) are based on latest GDP estimates made available on 18 December 2018 by the Department of Census and Statistics
Central Government Debt
96.9
103.3105.6
102.3 102.3
90.687.9
85.081.4
86.2
71.6 71.168.7
70.8 71.3
77.7 78.8 77.4
0
20
40
60
80
100
12020
00
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
% o
f G
DP
Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department
Source: Ministry of Finance and Mass MediaCentral Bank of Sri Lanka
Monetary Sector
Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department
Reserve Money Growth and Money Multiplier
Reserve Money Growth (Y-O-Y) Money Multiplier
Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department
Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Q3
M1 M2 M2b
19.8
16.5
27.827.1
12.7
17.8
15.5
9.8
13.2
10.2
11.2
5
10
15
20
25
30
De
c-14
Mar
-15
Jun
-15
Se
p-1
5
De
c-15
Mar
-16
Jun
-16
Se
p-1
6
De
c-16
Mar
-17
Jun
-17
Se
p-1
7
De
c-17
Mar
-18
Jun
-18
Se
p-1
8
% Y
-O-Y
Broad Money Growth
13.4
16.8
19.8
16.5
17.3
18.4
21.4 21.3
20.3
16.7
16.8
14.9
13.1
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
De
c-14
Mar
-15
Jun
-15
Se
p-1
5
De
c-15
Mar
-16
Jun
-16
Se
p-1
6
De
c-16
Mar
-17
Jun
-17
Se
p-1
7
De
c-17
Mar
-18
Jun
-18
Se
p-1
8
%
Broad Money (M2b) Growth (Y-O-Y)
Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department
Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka
Credit to the Private Sector
Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department
Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka
29.3
22.2
26.5
(6.6)
34.3 35.2
0.7
28.5
15.4
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
(500)
500
1,500
2,500
3,500
4,500
5,500
De
c-0
5
Se
p-0
6
Jun
-07
Mar
-08
De
c-0
8
Se
p-0
9
Jun
-10
Mar
-11
De
c-11
Se
p-1
2
Jun
-13
Mar
-14
De
c-14
Se
p-1
5
Jun
-16
Mar
-17
De
c-17
Se
p-1
8
%
Rs.
bn
Private Sector Credit Volume Private Sector Credit Growth (RHA)
* Data were revised from April 2014
Net Credit to the Government
Central Bank of Sri LankaEconomic Research Department
Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
2,400
2,600
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
2,400
2,600
De
c-0
5
Se
p-0
6
Jun
-07
Mar
-08
De
c-0
8
Se
p-0
9
Jun
-10
Mar
-11
De
c-11
Se
p-1
2
Jun
-13
Mar
-14
De
c-14
Se
p-1
5
Jun
-16
Mar
-17
De
c-17
Se
p-1
8
Rs.
bn
Rs.
bn
Central Bank Commercial Banks Claim on Government (net)
Credit to Public Corporations
Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department
Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
De
c-0
5
Se
p-0
6
Jun
-07
Mar
-08
De
c-0
8
Se
p-0
9
Jun
-10
Mar
-11
De
c-11
Se
p-1
2
Jun
-13
Mar
-14
De
c-14
Se
p-1
5
Jun
-16
Mar
-17
De
c-17
Se
p-1
8
Rs.
bn
Note: Data were revised from April 2014
Net Foreign Assets (NFA)
Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department
Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka
-1,000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
De
c-0
5
Se
p-0
6
Jun
-07
Mar
-08
De
c-0
8
Se
p-0
9
Jun
-10
Mar
-11
De
c-11
Se
p-1
2
Jun
-13
Mar
-14
De
c-14
Se
p-1
5
Jun
-16
Mar
-17
De
c-17
Se
p-1
8
Rs.
bn
NFA of Central Bank NFA of Commercial Banks NFA of the Banking System
Policy Interest Rates and Overnight Money Market Rates
Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department
Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka
8.40
7.25
8.50
5
6
7
8
9
10
De
c-14
Jan
-15
Mar
-15
May
-15
Jul-1
5
Se
p-1
5
No
v-15
Jan
-16
Mar
-16
May
-16
Jul-1
6
Se
p-1
6
No
v-16
Jan
-17
Mar
-17
May
-17
Jul-1
7
Se
p-1
7
No
v-17
Jan
-18
Mar
-18
May
-18
Jul-1
8
Se
p-1
8
%
Average Weighted Call Money Rate Standing Deposit Facility Rate* Standing Lending Facility Rate **
*Previously known as the Repo Rate** Previously known as the Reverse Repo Rate
Treasury Bill Yields and the Yield Curve
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
De
c-14
Mar
-15
May
-15
Au
g-1
5
Oct
-15
Jan
-16
Mar
-16
Jun
-16
Au
g-1
6
No
v-16
Jan
-17
Ap
r-17
Jun
-17
Au
g-1
7
No
v-17
Jan
-18
Ap
r-18
Jun
-18
Se
p-1
8
%
Treasury Bill Yields (Primary Market)*
91- Day Treasury bill 182- Day Treasury bill
364- Day Treasury bill
Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department
Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
0 5 10 15
%
Secondary Market Yield Curve
End 2015 End 2016 End 2017 2018 Q3
5 Y
ear
10 Y
ear
15 Y
ear
3 Y
ear
7 Y
ear
11 Y
ear
9 Y
ear
13 Y
ear
1 Y
ear
*Yield rates for some weeks are not available due to non-acceptance of bids or not offering of relevant tenors
Market Interest Rates
11.72
8.69
10.84
14.27
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
De
c-14
Mar
-15
Jun
-15
Se
p-1
5
De
c-15
Mar
-16
Jun
-16
Se
p-1
6
De
c-16
Mar
-17
Jun
-17
Se
p-1
7
De
c-17
Mar
-18
Jun
-18
Se
p-1
8
%
Monthly Average Weighted Prime Lending Rate (AWPR) Average Weighted Deposit Rate (AWDR)
Average Weighted Fixed Deposit Rate (AWFDR) Average Weighted Lending Rate (AWLR)
Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department
Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka
Financial Sector
Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department
Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department
Banking Sector Indicators (i)
Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka
Assets and Liabilities of the Banking Sector Non-Performing Loans of the Banking Sector
IIS: Interest In Suspense
3,149 3,427
3,895
4,715
5,541
6,431 6,725
6,946 7,266
3,625 4,170
4,686
5,403
6,296
7,399 7,713 7,943 8,189
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Q1
2018Q2
2018Q3
Rs.
bn
Loans and Advances-Gross (net of IIS) Deposits
116.6 191.0 165.5 152.8 142.3 160.7 201.0 227.6 263.1
3.7
5.6
4.2
3.2
2.6 2.5
3.0 3.33.6
2.2
3.8
2.6
1.7
1.2 1.31.7
1.92.2
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Q1
2019Q2
2018Q3
%
Rs.
bn
Gross NPL Volumes (net of IIS)
Gross NPL Ratio (net of IIS) (RHA)
Net NPL Ratio (net of IIS & specific pro.) (RHA)
Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department
Profitability Indicators Capital Adequacy Ratios
Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka
Banking Sector Indicators (ii)
20.3
16.0 16.6 16.217.3 17.6 17.2
14.814.1
4.1
3.5 3.5 3.6 3.63.5
3.7 3.7 3.6
1.7
1.3 1.41.3 1.4 1.4 1.4
1.2 1.2
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
10
15
20
25
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Q1
2018Q2
2018Q3
%
%
Return on Equity (after tax)Net Interest Margin (RHA)Return on Assets (after tax) (RHA)
2,601 2,942 3,498 4,291 5,059 5,716 6,070 6,202 6,543
14.714.9
14.1
13.012.6
12.4 12.412.8
12.4
16.4
17.6
16.6
15.4 15.615.2
15.716.0
15.7
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Q1
2018Q2
2018Q3
%
Rs.
bn
Risk Weighted Aseets Core CAR (RHA) Total CAR (RHA)
Banking Density by Province*2009 2018 Q3
Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department
*Banking Density by Province is calculated based on the mid-year population estimates published by the Department of Census and Statistics
Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department
Non-Bank Financial Sector Indicators (i)
Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka
LFC: Licensed Finance CompaniesSLC: Specialised Leasing Companies
Total Deposits and Borrowings of the LFC & SLC Sector*
Assets of the LFC & SLC Sector
* Deposits are only mobilized by the LFCs
573.4 684.6 814.6 996.1 1,211.9 1,355.0 1,394.7
6.6
6.9 7.0
7.2
8.0 7.9
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Jun
%
Rs.
bn
Total Assets (Net) Share of the Financial System (RHA)
254.1
337.3
414.1
480.6
530.7
686.7 697.5
177.3 193.1
217.4
314.3
438.7
396.0 416.7
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Jun
Rs.
bn
Total Deposits Total Borrowings
Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department
Non-Bank Financial Sector Indicators (ii)
Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka
Profitability Indicators of the LFC and SLC Sector
Non-Performing Advances
7.37.0
8.38.9
7.9 7.78.2
3.71.9
3.2 2.83.6
3.02.7
15.7
6.4
14.9
10.9
19.8
14.7
12.3
0
5
10
15
20
25
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Jun
%
Net Interest Margin Return on Assets Return on Equity
23.6 37.0 44.1 47.4 53.0 65.9 79.8
5.0
6.76.9
5.7
5.3
5.9
6.8
1.6
2.52.3
1.6
1.2
1.62.0
0
2
4
6
8
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Jun
%
Rs.
bn
Gross NPA (Rs.bn) Gross NPA Ratio (%) (RHA)
Net NPA Ratio (%) (RHA)
Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department
Stock Market PerformanceShare Price Indices and Market Capitalisation Net Foreign Inflows to the Secondary Market
Source: Colombo Stock Exchange
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
Se
p-1
4
Mar
-15
Se
p-1
5
Mar
-16
Se
p-1
6
Mar
-17
Se
p-1
7
Mar
-18
Se
p-1
8
Rs.
bn
Ind
ex
Market Capitalisation (RHA) All Share Price IndexS&P SL 20 Index
304.0
174.2161.9
-37.3
2.3
115.5
-36.3
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Jan
-Se
p
US
$ m
n
The sets of graphs above summarisemacroeconomic and financial market trends inSri Lanka. However, these graphs do notcontain source data. An extensive set of datais available in the CBSL website. Informationfor the third quarter of 2018 is provisional.
Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department
