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Engineering. Technology. Management. Tracking the Constant of Change. Risk. Systems Engineering. Economics. History. Management. Legal Aspects. Society. Supply Chain. Logistics. Technical Information. Multidiscipline Design. Product Development. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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04/20/23 1Engineering & Technology Management Group
The Delta Forum 2003Operating within a
Risk Averse Aerospace Environment – Coping with the Unknown
Sponsored by the
AIAA Engineering & Technology Management Group
Session Chair: JoAnne Rocker
Eng
inee
ring
Technology
ManagementTracking the Constant of Change
SystemsEngineering
ManagementHistory
Society Legal Aspects
Economics
LogisticsSupply Chain
Risk
TechnicalInformation
MultidisciplineDesign
ProductDevelopment
04/20/23 2Engineering & Technology Management Group
Eng
inee
ring Technology
ManagementTracking the Constant of Change
ManagementHistory
Society Legal Aspects
LogisticsSupply Chain
SystemsEngineering
Economics
Risk
TechnicalInformation
MultidisciplineDesign
ProductDevelopment
• Introduction – Carolyn Griner, ETM Director• Risk Acceptance and Society at Large
– Tim Howard, Society & Aerospace Technology TC• Balancing Technology Risk and the Return on Investment
– Paul Collopy, Economics TC• Legal Considerations Affecting Risk Acceptance
– Scott Johnson, Legal Aspects TC• Risk Mitigation through Knowledge Management
– Joanne Rocker, Technical Information TC• Risk Mitigation and System Integration
– Peter Rutledge, Systems Engineering TC• Multidisciplinary Design Optimization as a Powerful Risk Mitigation
Tool– Achille Messac, MultiDisciplinary Design TC
• Integrating Risk Management – Richard Raiford, ManagementTC
• Panel Discussion – All Speakers
Overview
04/20/23 3Engineering & Technology Management Group
Eng
inee
ring Technology
ManagementTracking the Constant of Change
ManagementHistory
Society Legal Aspects
LogisticsSupply Chain
SystemsEngineering
Economics
Risk
TechnicalInformation
MultidisciplineDesign
ProductDevelopment
• Our Group’s TCs examine the issues affecting the aerospace industry in the areas of Engineering and Technology Management
– Our disciplines include:• Economics• History• Legal Aspects• Logistics• Management• Multidisciplinary Design Optimization• Product Development• Risk Management• Societal Aspects• Supply Chain Management• Systems Engineering• Technical Information
Introduction
04/20/23 4Engineering & Technology Management Group
Eng
inee
ring Technology
ManagementTracking the Constant of Change
ManagementHistory
Society Legal Aspects
LogisticsSupply Chain
SystemsEngineering
Economics
Risk
TechnicalInformation
MultidisciplineDesign
ProductDevelopment
• Our purpose today is to examine a single issue affecting the aerospace industry, from the several perspectives of the various disciplines within the Group
• This year’s theme addresses the change in how the aerospace industry accepts the risks inherent in our technologies, to develop, integrate, and deliver goods and services in a global marketplace
• Our speakers come from across the industry to address topics in– Risk and Society– Intellectual Property– Investment– Knowledge Management– Systems Engineering– Mutlidisciplinary Design– Aerospace Management
• Our panel at the end will draw together the separate perspectives in response to your questions
Introduction
04/20/23 5Engineering & Technology Management Group
Eng
inee
ring Technology
ManagementTracking the Constant of Change
ManagementHistory
Society Legal Aspects
LogisticsSupply Chain
SystemsEngineering
Economics
Risk
TechnicalInformation
MultidisciplineDesign
ProductDevelopment
Risk Acceptance
And
Society at Large
Tim Howard
Society & Aerospace Technology TC
Topic 1
04/20/23 6Engineering & Technology Management Group
Eng
inee
ring Technology
ManagementTracking the Constant of Change
ManagementHistory
Society Legal Aspects
LogisticsSupply Chain
SystemsEngineering
Economics
Risk
TechnicalInformation
MultidisciplineDesign
ProductDevelopment
Overview
• Historical Perspective of Risk
• Society’s Response to Risk
• Society, Risk and Aerospace
• Aerospace, Risk and Society
Against the Gods; The Remarkable Story of Risk
by Peter L. Bernstein
Against the Gods; The Remarkable Story of Risk
by Peter L. Bernstein
04/20/23 7Engineering & Technology Management Group
Eng
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ring Technology
ManagementTracking the Constant of Change
ManagementHistory
Society Legal Aspects
LogisticsSupply Chain
SystemsEngineering
Economics
Risk
TechnicalInformation
MultidisciplineDesign
ProductDevelopment
Risk
“The word ‘risk’ derives from the early Italian risicare, which means ‘to dare.’
(Bernstein)
“The word ‘risk’ derives from the early Italian risicare, which means ‘to dare.’
(Bernstein)
04/20/23 8Engineering & Technology Management Group
Eng
inee
ring Technology
ManagementTracking the Constant of Change
ManagementHistory
Society Legal Aspects
LogisticsSupply Chain
SystemsEngineering
Economics
Risk
TechnicalInformation
MultidisciplineDesign
ProductDevelopment
A Historical Perspective of Risk
• Before 1200s - Gambling, Arabic numbers & Fibonacci (1, 2, 3, 5, 8)
• The Renaissance
– 1500s – Cardano, gambling & probability
– 1600s – Pascal & Fermat – Probability; Graunt & statistical sampling – London population tables
• 1700s
– Daniel Bernoulli: information quality & utility value
– De Moivre – normal distribution & standard deviation (The Bell Curve)
– Insurance & the coffee houses – Lloyd’s
• 1875 – Galton & Regression to the Mean (sweetpeas)
• 1900s –The Rationality Debate
– Uncertainty & failure of invariance – same problem presented differently results in different choices
04/20/23 9Engineering & Technology Management Group
Eng
inee
ring Technology
ManagementTracking the Constant of Change
ManagementHistory
Society Legal Aspects
LogisticsSupply Chain
SystemsEngineering
Economics
Risk
TechnicalInformation
MultidisciplineDesign
ProductDevelopment
Society’s Response to Risk• Until 1960s, prevailing idea is that
individuals are naturally risk averse• 1960s - Loss aversion more
powerful motivation than risk aversion – we hate to lose, and will take the gamble to avoid a sure loss– Aerospace losses often more
catastrophic, and more sensational than other technology or system losses
• Risk tolerance increases in relation to our attitudes about the future
• Issue presentation key to the acceptance or rejection of risk and hence loss
• Need to identify society’s level of acceptable loss
Version A: $30 to start; Choices are coin flip with heads = wins $9, tails = lose $9; no flip = keep the $30Possible outcomes are $21, $30, $3970% choose to flip coinVersion B: $0 to start;Choices are coin flip with heads = wins $39, tails = wins $21; no flip = given $30 Possible outcomes are $21, $30, $3943% choose to flip coin
Version A: $30 to start; Choices are coin flip with heads = wins $9, tails = lose $9; no flip = keep the $30Possible outcomes are $21, $30, $3970% choose to flip coinVersion B: $0 to start;Choices are coin flip with heads = wins $39, tails = wins $21; no flip = given $30 Possible outcomes are $21, $30, $3943% choose to flip coin
04/20/23 10Engineering & Technology Management Group
Eng
inee
ring Technology
ManagementTracking the Constant of Change
ManagementHistory
Society Legal Aspects
LogisticsSupply Chain
SystemsEngineering
Economics
Risk
TechnicalInformation
MultidisciplineDesign
ProductDevelopment
Society’s Response to Risk
• Society needs risk to grow; historical outlets are exploration and commerce– Exploration & development of old frontiers
driven by commercial needs for new markets• The Phoenicians, Columbus, The British
Empire• 10,000 years of maritime technologies enabled
exploration and commerce• <500 years of risk management to improve
probability of success• Insurance, economic forecasting,
investment strategies
04/20/23 11Engineering & Technology Management Group
Eng
inee
ring Technology
ManagementTracking the Constant of Change
ManagementHistory
Society Legal Aspects
LogisticsSupply Chain
SystemsEngineering
Economics
Risk
TechnicalInformation
MultidisciplineDesign
ProductDevelopment
Society, Risk and Aerospace
• The first century of flight made us the new risk outlet for societal growth– Air travel, cargo movement, satellite systems and
information transport fundamental to the success of the new global economy
– We enable exploration and development • Shackleton, Byrd, & the 19th century frontier• Space is the new frontier for human exploration &
commercial development– 100 years of aerospace technologies available to
support the need to grow– New fields use risk management to improve probability
of success (National defense, air traffic control, space launch)
– We develop new technologies and new applications of existing technologies to provide social growth
04/20/23 12Engineering & Technology Management Group
Eng
inee
ring Technology
ManagementTracking the Constant of Change
ManagementHistory
Society Legal Aspects
LogisticsSupply Chain
SystemsEngineering
Economics
Risk
TechnicalInformation
MultidisciplineDesign
ProductDevelopment
Aerospace, Risk and Society
• Our industry was founded by risk takers; now we operate in a risk-averse mode
– Societal growth stunted, or turned inwards; not the natural process
• We need to place our mean to the right of where we are, and start regressing – we need to take more risks
– Rejuvenate our industry
– Rekindle interest in our profession
– Reclaim technology leadership role
society needs us to play
• IT can only give us a virtual
frontier; we have already delivered the real thing
• We need to embrace our role as the new enabler of societal growth
– It’s time for a fresh deck of cards…
04/20/23 13Engineering & Technology Management Group
Eng
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ring Technology
ManagementTracking the Constant of Change
ManagementHistory
Society Legal Aspects
LogisticsSupply Chain
SystemsEngineering
Economics
Risk
TechnicalInformation
MultidisciplineDesign
ProductDevelopment
Risk
… if we dare… if we dare
04/20/23 14Engineering & Technology Management Group
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ManagementTracking the Constant of Change
ManagementHistory
Society Legal Aspects
LogisticsSupply Chain
SystemsEngineering
Economics
Risk
TechnicalInformation
MultidisciplineDesign
ProductDevelopment
Topic 2
Risk and the Return on Investment
Paul D. Collopy
Economics Technical Committee
04/20/23 15Engineering & Technology Management Group
Eng
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ManagementTracking the Constant of Change
ManagementHistory
Society Legal Aspects
LogisticsSupply Chain
SystemsEngineering
Economics
Risk
TechnicalInformation
MultidisciplineDesign
ProductDevelopment
Two Messages
• Managers: Embrace Risk– Eliminate unnecessary downside risk– Know what you are signing up for– Use strategies like hedging to improve risk+return
• Analysts: Don’t lose sight of the Fundamentals– E[NPV] is the basic metric (return)– Adjust for risk aversion when > 4% Equity
• otherwise never trade E[NPV] for
04/20/23 16Engineering & Technology Management Group
Eng
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ring Technology
ManagementTracking the Constant of Change
ManagementHistory
Society Legal Aspects
LogisticsSupply Chain
SystemsEngineering
Economics
Risk
TechnicalInformation
MultidisciplineDesign
ProductDevelopment
Risk Mitigation
• Great idea, if there is no cost
– in product performance
– in development time
• Risk free development Sunset Industry
• Performance > SoA = Technical Risk
Everybody loves but
04/20/23 17Engineering & Technology Management Group
Eng
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ring Technology
ManagementTracking the Constant of Change
ManagementHistory
Society Legal Aspects
LogisticsSupply Chain
SystemsEngineering
Economics
Risk
TechnicalInformation
MultidisciplineDesign
ProductDevelopment
What is Risk?
Risk = Uncertainty
400 500 600
Risk
Combat Range400 500 600
Combat Range
Low Risk Program
04/20/23 18Engineering & Technology Management Group
Eng
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ring Technology
ManagementTracking the Constant of Change
ManagementHistory
Society Legal Aspects
LogisticsSupply Chain
SystemsEngineering
Economics
Risk
TechnicalInformation
MultidisciplineDesign
ProductDevelopment
Military Aerospace Development
0 5 10 15 20
Years
Con
cept
Stu
dies
Tec
h D
evel
opm
ent
Dem
/ V
al
E &
MD
Pro
duct
ion
Ent
ry in
to S
ervi
ce
Careful Risk Mitigation ensures the system will achieve obsolescence and military irrelevance upon entry into service
04/20/23 19Engineering & Technology Management Group
Eng
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ring Technology
ManagementTracking the Constant of Change
ManagementHistory
Society Legal Aspects
LogisticsSupply Chain
SystemsEngineering
Economics
Risk
TechnicalInformation
MultidisciplineDesign
ProductDevelopment
Venture Star
04/20/23 20Engineering & Technology Management Group
Eng
inee
ring Technology
ManagementTracking the Constant of Change
ManagementHistory
Society Legal Aspects
LogisticsSupply Chain
SystemsEngineering
Economics
Risk
TechnicalInformation
MultidisciplineDesign
ProductDevelopment
Caveats
• Choose your Battles
• Hope for Success / Plan for Failure
• Do not Bet the Company
04/20/23 21Engineering & Technology Management Group
Eng
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ring Technology
ManagementTracking the Constant of Change
ManagementHistory
Society Legal Aspects
LogisticsSupply Chain
SystemsEngineering
Economics
Risk
TechnicalInformation
MultidisciplineDesign
ProductDevelopment
Choose your Battles
• Risks Interact:
• ~ 5 Technical Risks can be managed at once• Use Spiral Development for more ambitious
programs
0 1Average Probability of Failure
Dev
elo
pm
ent
Co
st
or
Sch
edu
le
Diseconomy of Scale
04/20/23 22Engineering & Technology Management Group
Eng
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ring Technology
ManagementTracking the Constant of Change
ManagementHistory
Society Legal Aspects
LogisticsSupply Chain
SystemsEngineering
Economics
Risk
TechnicalInformation
MultidisciplineDesign
ProductDevelopment
Hope for Success / Plan for Failure
• Quote expected performance
• Plan backup designs
– Low risk
• Prepare to take a performance hit
• There is always next time
04/20/23 23Engineering & Technology Management Group
Eng
inee
ring Technology
ManagementTracking the Constant of Change
ManagementHistory
Society Legal Aspects
LogisticsSupply Chain
SystemsEngineering
Economics
Risk
TechnicalInformation
MultidisciplineDesign
ProductDevelopment
Betting the Company
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 20%
% of Equity
Va
lue
/ E
qu
ity
Typical Business Value of Money
Neutra
l Attit
ude to Risk
16 u $ . 0 e
$
.
1 0 16
Risks < 4% equity: value = avg. return
For Risk = 20% eq.business is strongly
risk averse
04/20/23 24Engineering & Technology Management Group
Eng
inee
ring Technology
ManagementTracking the Constant of Change
ManagementHistory
Society Legal Aspects
LogisticsSupply Chain
SystemsEngineering
Economics
Risk
TechnicalInformation
MultidisciplineDesign
ProductDevelopment
Using the Value of Money Curve
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 20%
% of Equity
Va
lue
/ E
qu
ity
p
1 - p- 8%
+ 8%Arbitrary Base Point
Downside
Upside = 3%
Downside=5% Value of deal =
3%p + 5%(1-p)Upside
04/20/23 25Engineering & Technology Management Group
Eng
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ring Technology
ManagementTracking the Constant of Change
ManagementHistory
Society Legal Aspects
LogisticsSupply Chain
SystemsEngineering
Economics
Risk
TechnicalInformation
MultidisciplineDesign
ProductDevelopment
Summary
• Risk has upside and downside
• Risk-free designs condemn the industry to mediocrity
• Good risks need to be managed not mitigated
04/20/23 26Engineering & Technology Management Group
Eng
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ring Technology
ManagementTracking the Constant of Change
ManagementHistory
Society Legal Aspects
LogisticsSupply Chain
SystemsEngineering
Economics
Risk
TechnicalInformation
MultidisciplineDesign
ProductDevelopment
Legal Considerations
Affecting Risk Acceptance
R. Scott Johnson
Legal Aspects of Aerospace TC
McKee, Voorhees & Sease, LLP
Topic 3
04/20/23 27Engineering & Technology Management Group
Eng
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ManagementTracking the Constant of Change
ManagementHistory
Society Legal Aspects
LogisticsSupply Chain
SystemsEngineering
Economics
Risk
TechnicalInformation
MultidisciplineDesign
ProductDevelopment
What is risk?
• Potential for
04/20/23 28Engineering & Technology Management Group
Eng
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ManagementTracking the Constant of Change
ManagementHistory
Society Legal Aspects
LogisticsSupply Chain
SystemsEngineering
Economics
Risk
TechnicalInformation
MultidisciplineDesign
ProductDevelopment
Negligence
• Duty• Breach of Duty• Injury• Causation
04/20/23 29Engineering & Technology Management Group
Eng
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ring Technology
ManagementTracking the Constant of Change
ManagementHistory
Society Legal Aspects
LogisticsSupply Chain
SystemsEngineering
Economics
Risk
TechnicalInformation
MultidisciplineDesign
ProductDevelopment
Negligence
• Duty– Generally: Exercise Reasonable Care
• Breach of Duty• Injury• Causation
04/20/23 30Engineering & Technology Management Group
Eng
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ring Technology
ManagementTracking the Constant of Change
ManagementHistory
Society Legal Aspects
LogisticsSupply Chain
SystemsEngineering
Economics
Risk
TechnicalInformation
MultidisciplineDesign
ProductDevelopment
Negligence
• Duty– Specifics: Statutes, Rules, and Regulations
• Breach of Duty• Injury• Causation
04/20/23 31Engineering & Technology Management Group
Eng
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ManagementTracking the Constant of Change
ManagementHistory
Society Legal Aspects
LogisticsSupply Chain
SystemsEngineering
Economics
Risk
TechnicalInformation
MultidisciplineDesign
ProductDevelopment
Specifics: Statutes, Rules, and Regulations
• Federal Aviation Act of 1958– 49 U.S.C.
• Provides regulatory authority for:– Department of Transportation
• Aviation Economic Regulations or AERs 14 C.F.R. §
200-400– Federal Aviation Administration
• Federal Aviation Regulations or FARs 14 C.F.R. § 1 -
199– National Transportation Safety Board
• 49 C.F.R. § 830, 31, and 45
04/20/23 32Engineering & Technology Management Group
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ManagementTracking the Constant of Change
ManagementHistory
Society Legal Aspects
LogisticsSupply Chain
SystemsEngineering
Economics
Risk
TechnicalInformation
MultidisciplineDesign
ProductDevelopment
Specifics: Statutes, Rules, and Regulations
• State products liability laws– “liability of a manufacturer or seller of a
chattel which is defective and/or unreasonably dangerous and causes” injury.
– William R. Prosser, Handbood of the Law of Torts 641 (4th ed. 1971)
– Three theories of recovery:• Warranty (contract remedy)• Strict liability (tort remedy)• Negligence (tort remedy)
04/20/23 33Engineering & Technology Management Group
Eng
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ring Technology
ManagementTracking the Constant of Change
ManagementHistory
Society Legal Aspects
LogisticsSupply Chain
SystemsEngineering
Economics
Risk
TechnicalInformation
MultidisciplineDesign
ProductDevelopment
Negligence
• Duty• Breach of Duty• Injury• Causation
04/20/23 34Engineering & Technology Management Group
Eng
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ring Technology
ManagementTracking the Constant of Change
ManagementHistory
Society Legal Aspects
LogisticsSupply Chain
SystemsEngineering
Economics
Risk
TechnicalInformation
MultidisciplineDesign
ProductDevelopment
The Bad
• Create broad range of compliance duties• Create investigation bodies
– NTSB determines “probable cause” for all aircraft accidents in the U.S.
• Create Enforcement Procedures– Civil and criminal penalties
04/20/23 35Engineering & Technology Management Group
Eng
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ManagementTracking the Constant of Change
ManagementHistory
Society Legal Aspects
LogisticsSupply Chain
SystemsEngineering
Economics
Risk
TechnicalInformation
MultidisciplineDesign
ProductDevelopment
The Bad
• Other Sources of Liability– Contract provisions– Other Federal and State Statutes and
Regulations• Environmental• Intellectual Property• Employment• Corporate
– International Treaties
04/20/23 36Engineering & Technology Management Group
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ManagementTracking the Constant of Change
ManagementHistory
Society Legal Aspects
LogisticsSupply Chain
SystemsEngineering
Economics
Risk
TechnicalInformation
MultidisciplineDesign
ProductDevelopment
The Good
Statutes can be good?
04/20/23 37Engineering & Technology Management Group
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ManagementTracking the Constant of Change
ManagementHistory
Society Legal Aspects
LogisticsSupply Chain
SystemsEngineering
Economics
Risk
TechnicalInformation
MultidisciplineDesign
ProductDevelopment
The Good
• General Aviation Revitalization Act of 1994 (42 U.S.C. § 40101) – 18 year statute of repose
• prohibits any legal action for any aircraft, engine or part at issue
– Applies to all general aviation aircraft
04/20/23 38Engineering & Technology Management Group
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ManagementTracking the Constant of Change
ManagementHistory
Society Legal Aspects
LogisticsSupply Chain
SystemsEngineering
Economics
Risk
TechnicalInformation
MultidisciplineDesign
ProductDevelopment
The Good
• General Aviation Revitalization Act of 1994 (42 U.S.C. § 40101) - Exceptions– Manufacturer “knowingly misrepresented or
concealed or withheld” from the FAA information relating to:
• The type certification• components• airworthiness
04/20/23 39Engineering & Technology Management Group
Eng
inee
ring Technology
ManagementTracking the Constant of Change
ManagementHistory
Society Legal Aspects
LogisticsSupply Chain
SystemsEngineering
Economics
Risk
TechnicalInformation
MultidisciplineDesign
ProductDevelopment
The Good
• General Aviation Revitalization Act of 1994 (42 U.S.C. § 40101) - Exceptions– claimant was a passenger for purposes of
receiving emergency or medical care
04/20/23 40Engineering & Technology Management Group
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ManagementTracking the Constant of Change
ManagementHistory
Society Legal Aspects
LogisticsSupply Chain
SystemsEngineering
Economics
Risk
TechnicalInformation
MultidisciplineDesign
ProductDevelopment
The Good
• General Aviation Revitalization Act of 1994 (42 U.S.C. § 40101) - Exceptions– suit is brought under the manufacturer’s
written warranties
04/20/23 41Engineering & Technology Management Group
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ManagementTracking the Constant of Change
ManagementHistory
Society Legal Aspects
LogisticsSupply Chain
SystemsEngineering
Economics
Risk
TechnicalInformation
MultidisciplineDesign
ProductDevelopment
The Good
• State statute of limitations• International Treaties
– Warsaw Convention • Other liability limiters
– Sales contract provisions • shift liability away• limit liability
– Insurance agreements• cover yourself
04/20/23 42Engineering & Technology Management Group
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ManagementTracking the Constant of Change
ManagementHistory
Society Legal Aspects
LogisticsSupply Chain
SystemsEngineering
Economics
Risk
TechnicalInformation
MultidisciplineDesign
ProductDevelopment
The Beautiful
• Risk Management Programs– By whom?– Government Initiated
• NTSB or FAA– Insurance Company– In-house
04/20/23 43Engineering & Technology Management Group
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ManagementTracking the Constant of Change
ManagementHistory
Society Legal Aspects
LogisticsSupply Chain
SystemsEngineering
Economics
Risk
TechnicalInformation
MultidisciplineDesign
ProductDevelopment
The Beautiful
• Risk Management Programs– Evaluate loss potential– Use established risk management
techniques– Put a plan in action
04/20/23 44Engineering & Technology Management Group
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ManagementTracking the Constant of Change
ManagementHistory
Society Legal Aspects
LogisticsSupply Chain
SystemsEngineering
Economics
Risk
TechnicalInformation
MultidisciplineDesign
ProductDevelopment
The Beautiful
• Risk Management Programs– Evaluate loss potential
• Total potential loss X % Chance loss will occur
• Account for “all” losses (Economic & Social)
– Use established risk management techniques
– Put a plan in action
04/20/23 45Engineering & Technology Management Group
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ManagementTracking the Constant of Change
ManagementHistory
Society Legal Aspects
LogisticsSupply Chain
SystemsEngineering
Economics
Risk
TechnicalInformation
MultidisciplineDesign
ProductDevelopment
The Beautiful
• Risk Management Programs– Evaluate loss potential– Use established risk management
techniques• Eliminate (Don’t Do It)• Reduce (Rapid Response)• Transfer (Insurance)• Retain (Savings Plan)
– Put a plan in action
04/20/23 46Engineering & Technology Management Group
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ManagementTracking the Constant of Change
ManagementHistory
Society Legal Aspects
LogisticsSupply Chain
SystemsEngineering
Economics
Risk
TechnicalInformation
MultidisciplineDesign
ProductDevelopment
The Beautiful
• Risk Management Programs– Evaluate loss potential– Use established risk management techniques– Put a plan in action
• Identify the risks– Maintain database of accidents,
lawsuits, liability situations• Create contingencies and risk reducing
methods• Example: British Airways BASIS program
04/20/23 47Engineering & Technology Management Group
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ManagementTracking the Constant of Change
ManagementHistory
Society Legal Aspects
LogisticsSupply Chain
SystemsEngineering
Economics
Risk
TechnicalInformation
MultidisciplineDesign
ProductDevelopment
Thank you!
R. Scott JohnsonMcKee, Voorhees & Sease, PLC801 Grand Avenue, Suite 3200Des Moines, Iowa [email protected]
04/20/23 48Engineering & Technology Management Group
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ManagementTracking the Constant of Change
ManagementHistory
Society Legal Aspects
LogisticsSupply Chain
SystemsEngineering
Economics
Risk
TechnicalInformation
MultidisciplineDesign
ProductDevelopment
Risk Mitigation through Knowledge Management
JoAnne Rocker
NASA Scientific and Technical Information Program
Chair, AIAA Technical Information Committee
Topic 4
04/20/23 49Engineering & Technology Management Group
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ManagementTracking the Constant of Change
ManagementHistory
Society Legal Aspects
LogisticsSupply Chain
SystemsEngineering
Economics
Risk
TechnicalInformation
MultidisciplineDesign
ProductDevelopment
Discussion Topics
Risk mitigation
Knowledge management
• Communities of practice
• Lessons Learned
• Portals
Technology and cultural change
Conclusion
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TechnicalInformation
MultidisciplineDesign
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04/20/23 50Engineering & Technology Management Group
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ManagementTracking the Constant of Change
ManagementHistory
Society Legal Aspects
LogisticsSupply Chain
SystemsEngineering
Economics
Risk
TechnicalInformation
MultidisciplineDesign
ProductDevelopment
Risk Management (RM) is an organized, systematic decision-making process that efficiently identifies, analyzes, plans (for the handling of risks), tracks, controls, communicates, and documents risk
Purpose: increase the likelihood of achieving program/project goals
Risk mitigation depends upon risk analysis
Many useful sources of information should be compiled to provide input for risk analysis, for example:
• Test data
• Expert opinions
• Hazard Analyses, Failure Modes and Effects Analyses
• Lessons learned data and historical information from other programs/projects
• Software verification and validation
• Risk data generated in other steps in the process
Eng
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ManagementTracking the Constant of Change
ManagementHistory
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TechnicalInformation
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Risk mitigation is a process involving information analysis from a variety of data sources
Risk Mitigation
Risk Management Procedures and Guidelines, NPG 8000.4
04/20/23 51Engineering & Technology Management Group
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ManagementTracking the Constant of Change
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MultidisciplineDesign
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Knowledge management refers to strategies and structures for maximizing the return on intellectual and information resources
• Tacit form (human education, experience and expertise)
• Explicit forms (documents and data)
Creates new value by improving the efficiency and effectiveness of individual and collaborative efforts to organize and use information resources
Increases innovation and improves decision-making
From: “Defining Knowledge Management”, destinationKM.com,
http://www.destinationkm.com/articles/default.asp?ArticleID=949
Eng
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ManagementTracking the Constant of Change
ManagementHistory
Society Legal Aspects
LogisticsSupply Chain
SystemsEngineering
Economics
Risk
TechnicalInformation
MultidisciplineDesign
ProductDevelopment
Knowledge Management
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• Aerospace is a competitive knowledge-based industry
• Continual learning and re-using information to be competitive, respond to change, stay innovative, and discover new products and processes
• Long-term life cycle for technology development and knowledge can be lost or forgotten if no KM process is in place (KM provides continuity as information is captured, stored, and made available for use)
• Virtual workforce (national and internationally located) need to share resources and information for collaborative work
• Cyclical hiring practices hinders knowledge sharing between experienced employees and new hires
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Knowledge management strategies and structures
• Communities of practice
• Lessons learned databases
• Portals
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From: “Communities for knowledge management,” by Stephen Denning, article found at http://www.stevedenning.com/communities_knowledge_management.html
“Definitions of community of practice vary somewhat, but are usually taken to mean a group of practitioners who share a common interest or passion in an area of competence and are willing to share the experiences of their practice.”
Communities of practice can also be known as:
• Thematic groups (World Bank)
• Learning communities or networks (Hewlett Packard)
• Best practice teams (Chevron)
Communities exist within companies and as well as across company boundaries
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• Strong sense of identity with the group - members often from the same line of work (salespeople, technicians, engineers, webmasters, etc).
• Practice is not captured in formal procedures – people learn how to do the work and are seen as competent or not based on working with others
• Use the same the same tools, methods, techniques
• Express themselves in a common language
• Cross-disciplinary not attached to organizational chart
• Differ from projects or teams
• Groups are self-selecting
• Emphasis sharing knowledge and experiences
Source: Fred Nickols, “Communities of Practice: Definition, Indicators & Identifying Characteristics,” http://home.att.net/~discon/KM/CoPCharacteristics.htm
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“Lessons learned is a narrative account of an actual experience providing an analysis of what happened, what was expected to happen, an understanding of why there were differences, and what was learned.”
Source: Schlumbergerhttp://www.slb.com/oilfield/index.cfm?id=id27859
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Lessons Learned
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http://llis.nasa.gov/llis/plls/index.html
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http://llis.nasa.gov/llis/plls/index.html
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http://llis.nasa.gov/llis/plls/index.html
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http://llis.nasa.gov/llis/plls/index.html
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“A portal is a site featuring a suite of commonly used services, serving as a starting point and frequent gateway to the Web (Web portal) or a niche topic (vertical portal). Web portal services often include a search engine or directory, news, email, stock quotes, maps, forums, chat, shopping, and options for customization.”
From: Marketing Terms.com, http://www.marketingterms.com/dictionary/portal/
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Example: aerospace portal (http://aerade.cranfield.ac.uk/)
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Example: aerospace portal (http://aerade.cranfield.ac.uk/)
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Technology but part of process to implement knowledge management but changing culture is essential to KM success
Source: William Matthews, “Knowledge management's 'worst‘” Federal Computer Week, April 25, 2002, http://www.fcw.com/fcw/articles/2002/0422/web-know-04-25-02.asp
Gartner Inc. conducted a survey on how well organizations utilize knowledge management and found:
• Survey participants scored from high of 78% to low of 2%
• Worst offender was the government with 2%
• Government workers didn’t understand what knowledge management was and how to use it
• Effective knowledge management means information sharing and collaboration and agencies are not used to doing that
French Caldwell, Gartner Research Director, "Knowledge management is a business process that has to be approached with discipline. It is not a technology. You can't buy it in a box."
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No KM technology or tool will be successful without a fundamental paradigm shift in corporate culture
• KM initiatives need acceptance and be seen as a way to do things differently
• Means user training, emphasizing the benefits of the new way of working
• KM is not a one-time investment but rather an ongoing process
• Top level management are the champions of KM initiatives
• Success or failure depends on a company's ability and willingness to make real cultural changes
Source: Henry Newberry, “Knowledge Management and Corporate Culture,” Lotus Advisor Magazine, November 2002, p6, http://businessintelligenceadvisor.com/doc/11262
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Risk Mitigation and knowledge management
• Purpose of managing risk is to increase the likelihood of achieving program/project goals
• Way to mitigate risk is through process of risk analysis which draws upon many different types of data and information sources
• Knowledge management provides the structure for collecting, organizing, and making information available for use (communities of practice, lessons learned, portals)
• Leverages corporate knowledge and creates a collaborative work environment
• Business process - not a technology - that needs top-level support to be effective
Knowledge management should be a business practice in the aerospace industry
• Knowledge-based industry
• Highly specialized technologies and processes making it vital to capture and retain corporate knowledge
• Innovation and knowledge creation are keys to survival in competitive marketplace and knowledge management is about getting the right information to the right people at the right time
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Conclusion
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Topic 5
Risk Management and Systems Engineering
Pete Rutledge, Ph.DOffice of Safety & Mission Assurance
NASA HeadquartersWashington, DC
Systems Engineering Technical Committee
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• Both are concerned about mission success.
• Both deal with uncertainty.
• Both must work the entire life cycle.
• Both need the “Big Picture.”
• Both must deal with all system elements.
• Both are concerned about interfaces and dependencies.
• Both are threatened by complexity and tight coupling.
• Both can help help with trade-offs to optimize cost-effectiveness.
• Both benefit from many of the same tools.
• Both can provide valuable support to decision-makers.
Risk Management & Systems Engineering: Many Common Attributes
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Mission Success: What Can Go Wrong?
“What can go wrong?”• Hardware can fail• Software can contain errors• Humans can make mistakes
There is a lot at stake!• Human life• Hardware• Software• Facilities• Scientific knowledge• Time• Money Mars Climate Orbiter:
•Spacecraft•Science•Program delayed•$250 Million
Challenger:•7 lives•Orbiter•Payload•Fleet grounded•$2 Billion+
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Uncertainty: Probabilities & Consequences
• What can go wrong with
this project?
• How likely is it to go wrong?
• What would be the
consequences if something
does go wrong?
• How soon do we need to act?
• What can be done to prevent
things from going wrong,
or at least reduce the
probability or severity of
the consequences?
• What risk mitigation would be
effective?Risk = Probability X Consequences
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System Life Cycle: From Cradle to Grave
• Risk originates and impacts system in all phases of the system life cycle. – Formulation
• Advanced Studies• Preliminary Analysis• Definition
– Implementation• Design• Development• Operations (including disposal)
• 70-90% of safety-related decisions (good & bad) are made early.
• Early decisions are cheap to make but have big effect on life cycle cost.
• Design process errors are the root cause of many failures.
• Systems Engineering & Risk Management need to begin early for maximum effectiveness.
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The “Big Picture”: All Elements, Interfaces, & Dependencies
All system elements contribute to risk:
• Hardware
• Software
• Human
Systems Engineering & Risk Management must deal with all:
• Elements
• Interfaces
• Dependencies
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Confounding Combinations & Complications
• The Hardware element– Behavior and failure modes are relatively well understood– Modeling and analysis is routine
• The Software element– Systems are increasingly dependent on large, complex codes– Difficult to exhaustively test large, complex code– Often failures trace back to the errors in the requirements– Many models for predicting reliability—but which one to use?
• The Human element– Human error is said to contribute to 70-90% of accidents– Human performance is difficult to model, analyze, and predict
• Interfaces & Dependencies– Confounding combinations of complex and tightly coupled
elements– Demands a Systems Engineering & Risk Management approach
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Complexity & Tight Coupling• Practically limitless,
unforeseeable combinations of failures.
• System “unravelings” with an intelligence of their own; exposing hidden connections, neutralizing redundancies, bypassing firewalls, and exploiting chance circumstances for which no engineer could reasonably plan.
• Cascading failures can accelerate out of control, confounding human operators and denying them a chance for recovery.
• Systems Engineering & Risk Management become essential.
Mouse Trap—a game by Milton-Bradley
Accidents are inevitable -- “normal.”Charles Perrow, Normal Accidents
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Optimizing Cost-Effectiveness: Risk as a Resource
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Tools of the Trades
• Hazard Analysis (PHA, SHA, SSHA, O&SHA)
• Reliability Analysis (for HW, SW, Human; RBD, prediction)
• Fault Tree, Success Tree, Event Tree Analysis
• Cause & Effect Diagrams (“Fishbone” Diagrams)
• Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA)
• Probabilistic Structural Analysis
• Failure Modes & Effects Analysis (FMEA)
• Pareto Analysis
• Monte Carlo simulation
• Cost and schedule analysis
• Data, trend, and statistical analysis
• And more….
Common to both Systems Engineering and Risk Management.
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Systems Engineering & Risk Management for Decision Support
• Given the common attributes just discussed, the Systems Engineering function is ideally suited employ Risk Management methodology to provide valuable support to aerospace engineering decision-makers.
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Dr. Achille MessacMultidisciplinary Design and Optimization LaboratoryMechanical, and Aeronautical Engineering Department
Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute
Multidisciplinary Design Optimization as a Powerful Risk Mitigation Tool
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Presentation Outline
1- Multidisciplinary Design Optimization
What is it?
A bit of history…
2- Aerospace and other MDO Applications
3- Multiobjective reality -- Physical Programming
4- Venturing into the nondeterministic environment of RISK
– The role of MDO
5- Optimization in Conceptual Design
6- Concluding Remark
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MultidisciplineDesign
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to MDO
From 50’s to 70’s, engineering optimization is
- Primarily Uni-disciplinary Aerospace >> Structure – min. mass
- Computationally Challenged
- Of Timid Problem Scope
- Heavily reliant on the defective MO method -- weighted sum
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to MDO -- Cont.
In early to mid eighties
- Computers become faster, and start decreasing in cost
- Optimal Control grows in popularity
- Large Space Structures research grows
- Concurrent Engineering becomes a cherished word
- Bi-disciplinary optimization: Control-Structure (Messac, Hale)
- NASA, Air Force, and JPL initiate MDO, CSI programs
- Government financial resources relatively abundant (human, computer – however slow)
- First Pre-MDO conference is held at Langley (Sobieski – 1984)
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From Early Timid Optimization Applications to MDO -- Cont.
Mid 80’s to Mid 90’s
- Computers are much faster and cheaper
- AIAA MDO TC is born (Transition from Bi- to Multi-disciplinary)
- MDO is still largely Deterministic
- MDO is still implemented in later stages of designNot at Conceptual Design Stage
- MDO is still largely addressing traditional disciplinesAero, Structure, Control – Neglecting Cost, Management, etc.
While…
- MDO’s popularity and use grows many-fold (e.g. GE heating element)
- MDO research enjoys strong international growth
- MA&O Conference grows more and more successful
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From Early Timid Optimization Applications to MDO -- Cont.
Mid 90’s to Present
-MDO is still implemented in later stages of designNot at Conceptual Design Stage-- New Conceptual Design optimization method emerged
(s-Pareto based Conceptual Design – Mattson-Messac)
-Optimization is still often used using the defective weighted sum paradigm
- Computer cost and speed are dramatically reduced
- MDO grows within government AND industry
-MDO begins to address non-traditional disciplinesCost, Management, Manufacturability, Profit, Safety, Risk, etc.
- MDO becomes more appropriately treated as Multiobjective
- MA&O Conference continues to prosper: 2002 Atlanta; Sept. 2004 Near Saratoga Springs NY
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Multidisciplinary Design Optimization (MDO)
CFD Structures
Performance
Aero Loads
Deformations
Mach Number
Str. WeightAero LoadsTOGW Design space discipline 1
Design space discipline 2Design Variables
Performance
MultidisciplinaryOptimal Design
Discipline 1 Optimum
Feasible Design Space
SuboptimalDesign
Conventional Trades
MDO Search
Discipline 2 Optimum
• Effective Integration of Individual Disciplines/Subsystems to Capture the Interactions• Novel Solution Procedures to Enable Improved System Solutions:
- Account for Interdisciplinary Couplings & Integrated Product Team (IPT) settings.
• MDO = { Design Optimization, Design Exploration, Cross-Attribute Optimization, InterDisciplinary Optimization, System Synthesis }
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NVH
FrontalCrash
Offset Crash
Roof Crush
Minimize: Vehicle Weight
Subject to: NVH design targetsFrequencyBending DisplacementTorsion DisplacementFrontal crash design targetsDummy HICDummy Chest GProbability of severe injury
Roof crush design targetsMaximum resistant force
50% Frontal Offset crash design targetsIntrusion
Side Impact design targets
Displacements
Viscous Criterion
Safety
Ford-SGI - Vehicle System MDO Project
HPC/MDO for NVH & Safety on the Origin 3800
Side Impact
Everything influenceseverything else!
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Aerodynamics
Propulsion
Controls
Hydraulics
Avionics
ElectricalsystemFuel
system
Landing gear
• Structural optimizationis at MDO roots
AIRFRAMESTRUCTURE
In Vehicle Everything Couples to Structure
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Car Body Optimization for Noise, Vibration, Harshness, and Crash
• Vehicle Roof Crush is a federally mandated requirement to enhance passenger safety during a rollover event.
• NVH must be constrained for passengers comfort
•Modified NVH Model with a Square Ram to Perform Roof Crush as specified by regulations
• Finite Element Model of 390,000+ dof, 6000+ boundary conditions;
• 20 design variables
• Optimization executed using Response Surface approximations to crash analysis and sensitivity-based approximations to NVH
• Implemented on a computer with 256 processors
• Single processor computer would need 257 days to do this optimization• It was condensed to 1 day on the multiprocessor machine.
Courtesy:Ford Motor Co./R-J. Yang
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Air Borne Laser System Design
BMCBMC44I I • Boeing
•8-10 March
Beam Control SystemBeam Control System• Turret Assembly
•Large Optics•Four Axis gimbals•Transfer optics
• Beam Transfer Assembly•Sensor Suite•Active Mirrors•Illuminators•Electronics•Software/Processors
747F Aircraft - 747F Aircraft - • BoeingBoeing • CDR 29 Feb - 3 Mar
Chemical Oxygen IodineChemical Oxygen IodineLaser (COIL) Laser (COIL) • TRW• 21-23 March
System Level DesignSystem Level Design• Boeing• CDR 25-27 April
12
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ProductDevelopmentSupersonic Business Jet Test Case
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• MDO necessary to protect very small payload margin• Massively computational problem• Candidate MDO method : design data bases for subsystems and disciplines precomputed off-line using multiprocessor computing
Examples of applications that will need all that
Configuration “A” Configuration “B”
Courtesy: NASA LRC/Troutman
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Obtaining an effective objective function is difficult in practice.
Weighted-Sum (WS) method for optimization has its inherent significant drawbacks. It is incapable of capturing a large class of potentially desirable Pareto solutions. It is also the most popular!
Compromise Programming (CP) method can be used to generate a complete set of efficient solutions, but its reliance on meaningless weights is a serious problem. Pareto ...
Etc.
Prevailing Practice
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Obj. Fun. Line
1 1 2 2J w f w f Optimal Solution UsingWeighted-Sum
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1 1 2 2J w f w f Pareto Solutions Using Weighted-Sum
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1 1 2 2J w f w f
Obj. Fun. Line
Weighted-Sum in Non-Convex Pareto Frontiers
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Obj. Fun. Line
1 1 2 2n nJ w f w f
Weighted Compromise Programming for Non-Convex Pareto Frontiers
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Quantify Preference for Each Design Metric
Ex: Mass of Beam
Highly Desirable < 250 (kg)
Desirable 250 - 275
Tolerable 275 - 300
Undesirable 300 - 325
Highly Undesirable 325 - 350
Unacceptable > 350
Physical Programming (cont.)
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Expressing Designer Preference During the Optimization Process
Expressing Designer Preference During the Optimization Process
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Behavior of the PP Class Functionfor Change in Preferences
Behavior of the PP Class Functionfor Change in Preferences
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Numerical Example 1 (of 2)Numerical Example 1 (of 2)
Minimize 25
24
23
22
211 xxxxxf
354
3212 )(01.0
323 xx
xxxf
25.02 54321 xxxxxSubject to
05.06.08.024 254321 xxxxx
1025
24
23
22
21 xxxxx
WS CP PPResults
Behaviors of different objective functions for a convex frontier
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Example 2Example 2
1 1min { ( ), ( )}J f f
sin1 f
72 sin1f
2532.15326.0
WS CP PPResults
Behaviors of different objective functions for a concave frontier
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The Reality of Uncertainty and Risk
1- Non-Deterministic Forum -- SDM
2- Traditional Factor-of-Safety approach is rapidly becoming an anachronistic relic of the past
3- Development of probabilistic design optimization methods
4- New MDO methods emerge to model risk and uncertainty
5- Profit as a design metric gains acceptance
6- Growing recognition that optimization in Conceptual Design is a necessity
7- TC has moves to Engineering & Technology Management Group to explore expanded collaboration
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• Not Primarily a Technical Problem• Critical Issues are: EDUCATION, MANAGEMENT, AND ORGANIZATION “CULTURE”
A Challenge?
INJECTING MDO INTO INDUSTRIAL PRACTICE:
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• The picture is somewhat muddied!Much of good news; yet much to be desired.
• MDO’s power is evident.
•Yet its strongest influence can be felt in this decade if -- its application in a holistic setting comes to pass, and-- key methodological developments take place in collaboration with non-traditional participants
• MDO is a unifying indispensable glue, if we are to effectively design the ultra-safe, profitable, and effective design of the future
• For more information: www.rpi.edu/~messac
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Integrating Risk ManagementThe Integrated Management Framework (IMF)
Systems Engineering Applied to Program Management
Richard Raiford, Chair
AIAA Management Technical Committee
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Integrating Risk ManagementIntegrated Management Framework (IMF)Agenda
• What is IMF?• Where Is IMF Applicable?• What does IMF Look Like When
Implemented?• How Do I Implement IMF on An Existing
Program?
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IMF Is a
Scalable Program InfrastructureScalable Program Infrastructure
That Uses System Engineering Principles To Implement an Executable Program
-----------------
• Proactive Boundary Spanning• Integrated Processes• Controlled Baselines
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The System - An Executable Program
Enterprise
Customer’s Program
Operating Environment
Geo-Political
Political
Operational Capability
Assessments
Apply SE Techniques to Everything Relevant to an
Executable Program
Suppliers
Executable ProgramExecutable Program
Operational System(s)
Product Elements
Project Elements
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Some Fundamental Concepts of IMF
• The System is the Executable Program
• Proactive Boundary Spanning (a.k.a. Integration)
– Boundaries Are a Fact of Life (Organization, Product, Program)
– IPTs Don’t Eliminate Boundaries, They Just Re-Arrange Them
• Top-Down: Event-Based Management
– Manage Progress Toward Key Program Events
• Bottom-Up: Requirements-Based Task Accountability
– Know And Track Requirements
• “Pull” to Continually Identify the Risks
– Somewhere, Someone Knows We Are at Risk of Not Meeting A Req’t
• Control Program Baselines
– Everyone On the Same Page, Marching in Unison to the Same Objective
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IMF – Defined RAARoles of the Program Mgr
**From the AF Critical Process Assessment Tool (CPATS) for PM
Responsibilities of the Program Manager**
(Program Manager)*
Manage the Program
Integrate the Program
Architect the System
(Deputy PM)* (SEIT, PIT, SEMT)*(System
Architect)*
Keep the Program SoldIPTs Consisting of:• Business Mgmt• Planning• Contract Mgmt• Subcontract Mgmt• Materiel• Manufacturing• Engineering• Logistics• Systems Engineering• Security
• Requirements Mgmt• Baseline Mgmt• Performance Mgmt• Risk Mgmt• Analysis and Integration (Boundary
Spanning)• Planning• Integrate Processes and Systems
• Requirements & Functional Analysis and Allocation
• Synthesis• System Analysis
and Control• Verification
The 4 Roles Shown May Be In One Person, or Divided Depending on the Type, Phase,
and Complexity of the Program. In any case, the PM Has Ultimate RAA for All Roles.
4 Roles of the Program Manager
*A Large Program Would Subdivide the Roles
110402
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CharacteristicsStyle
Hierarchy of Program Styles - From Reactive to Proactive
• Program AND Enterprise Mgmt Frequently Involved in Cost, Schedule, and/or Performance Problems that Threaten Viability of the Program;
• Chaos, Frustration, “Finger Pointing”
Crisis Crisis ManagementManagement1
• Mgmt Has Inconsistent Visibility of Performance; Fluid Rating Criteria• Teams Resist Quantitative Metrics; No Controlled Perf. Baseline
• Frequent Problems Due to Failure to Meet Plan Milestones
IssueManagement2
• Mgmt Has Visibility of Status of Program Performance to Current Plan• Issues Related to Predicted Failure to Meet Plan Milestones
• Surprises as Evolving Environment Overtakes Current PlansPerformance Performance ManagementManagementPerformance Management3
• Ongoing Integrated Assessments of Likelihood of Meeting Objectives in Light of Current Status and Projected Environment
• Plans Updated as Required; Streamlined by “Checkbook”RiskRisk
ManagementManagement4
• Ongoing, Integrated Assessments of Evolving Program & Environment; • Entire Organization Understands Current and Potential Customer Needs;• Integrated Strategies Take Advantage of Opportunities
Opportunity Opportunity ManagementManagement5
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Program Styles Are Based On How We Manage
OpportunityOpportunityMgmtMgmt
RiskRiskMgmtMgmt
PerformancePerformanceMgmtMgmt
IssueIssueMgmtMgmt
Crisis MgmtCrisis Mgmt
Performance
Project
Product
No Process to Update Plans as Program Evolves
Static EV Work Pkgs
No Perf. Baselines
No Visibility Architecture
Schedules not Controlled
Scope Undefined by Contractor
No Risk Mgmt
No Planned Approach for Issue Resolution
No Baseline
Rolling Wave EV Work Pkgs
Subjective, Performance Baselines
Unstructured Reporting
Risk System Available But Improperly Used
Baseline Fluid, Incomplete
Sched Controlled; Incomplete Integration
Scope Defined & Controlled; Team & Customer Misunderstandings
Risk Identification & Mitigation Based on Event Look-Ahead
Issue Mgmt In Place
Design Defined & Controlled
Plans Updated & Published - What-If Exercises & “Chkbk”)
Rolling Wave + Mgmt Reserve “Checkbook”
Objective, Event Based Performance Baselines with Improvement Goals
Uniform, Drill-Down, Event Based Architecture
Integrated, Multi-Level, Risk Mgmt Accounts for Evolving Environment
Integrated “What-If” Analysis and Structured Decision Process
Integrated LCC System Optimization Procedures
Customer KnowsContracted Scope
1 2 3 4 5
Product Baseline Integrated Across Product Life Cycle
Objective, Event > Task Based Performance Baselines
Vertical & Horizontal Schedule Integration
Causal Analysis & Tracked Corrective Action
No SE
Some Subsystem SE
Integrated SE Directed by Qualified System Architect
System SE, But No “Enforcement”
Structured, Integrated System SE with Intermediate Work Products
Scope Controlled; System for ‘Negotiation’ with Customer
Unclear RAA Unilateral Charters Integrated Charters Chartered RAA Integrated Across Schedules
OpportunityOpportunityMgmtMgmt
RiskRiskMgmtMgmt
PerformancePerformanceMgmtMgmt
IssueIssueMgmtMgmt
Crisis MgmtCrisis MgmtOpportunityOpportunity
MgmtMgmtRiskRisk
MgmtMgmtPerformancePerformance
MgmtMgmtIssueIssueMgmtMgmt
Crisis MgmtCrisis Mgmt
Performance
Project
Product
No Process to Update Plans as Program Evolves
Static EV Work Pkgs
No Perf. Baselines
No Visibility Architecture
Schedules not Controlled
Scope Undefined by Contractor
No Risk Mgmt
No Planned Approach for Issue Resolution
No Baseline
Rolling Wave EV Work Pkgs
Subjective, Performance Baselines
Unstructured Reporting
Risk System Available But Improperly Used
Baseline Fluid, Incomplete
Sched Controlled; Incomplete Integration
Scope Defined & Controlled; Team & Customer Misunderstandings
Risk Identification & Mitigation Based on Event Look-Ahead
Issue Mgmt In Place
Design Defined & Controlled
Plans Updated & Published - What-If Exercises & “Chkbk”)
Rolling Wave + Mgmt Reserve “Checkbook”
Objective, Event Based Performance Baselines with Improvement Goals
Uniform, Drill-Down, Event Based Architecture
Integrated, Multi-Level, Risk Mgmt Accounts for Evolving Environment
Integrated “What-If” Analysis and Structured Decision Process
Integrated LCC System Optimization Procedures
Customer KnowsContracted Scope
1 2 3 4 5
Product Baseline Integrated Across Product Life Cycle
Objective, Event > Task Based Performance Baselines
Vertical & Horizontal Schedule Integration
Causal Analysis & Tracked Corrective Action
No SE
Some Subsystem SE
Integrated SE Directed by Qualified System Architect
System SE, But No “Enforcement”
Structured, Integrated System SE with Intermediate Work Products
Scope Controlled; System for ‘Negotiation’ with Customer
Unclear RAA Unilateral Charters Integrated Charters Chartered RAA Integrated Across Schedules
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IMF – Four Program BaselinesStructure the Program By Structuring the Information
Enterprise Baseline
ProductProductBaselineBaseline
ProjectProjectBaselineBaseline
PerformancePerformanceBaselineBaseline
What the Company Brings to the Effort
(HR, Financial Systems, People, Skills, Processes, Systems, Etc.)
The Framework for the Program (Contract, SOW,
Schedule, Etc.)
The Reason for the Program’s Existence; The Product Baseline Evolves from “Back of the Envelope” to “10,000 Parts flying at
50,000 Feet”
How Performance to Plan Will Be Measured
(Metrics, Thresholds, Formats, Reporting Frequency, Etc.)
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Program Integration with IMF
Defined RAA for Everyone• Program is a System of Systems• Proactive Boundary Spanning
Integrated Plans & Processes
• Req’ts• Baselines (CM)• Performance• Risk• Integration How What
Who
IMFIMF
1
2
3
Managed Information
Enterprise Baseline
Project Baseline
Product Baseline
Performance Baseline
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- Defined Ownership- No Data Redundancy
IMF - Four Program BaselinesExample Contents
The Baselines . . . Evolve!
Rate of ChangeEnterprise = 0Project = 0/LowProduct = Very High
ProjectProjectBaselineBaseline
ProductProductBaselineBaseline
EnterpriseEnterpriseBaselineBaseline
ProductProductBaselineBaseline
Shop & Assy
Planning
ToolDesign
Specs
Requirements
Analytical Models
Bill of Materials
Design
Test Procedures
Tech Orders
Risk db
Shop & Assy
Planning
ToolDesign
Specs
Requirements
Analytical Models
Bill of Materials
Design
Test Procedures
Tech Orders
Risk db
Contract
WBS
Deliverables
Integrated Mgmt
Plan & Schedule
(IMP / IMS)
Program Mgmt
Plan (PMP)
Tailored Processes &
Procedures
Earned Value Mgmt System
SOW
Risk Mgmt
Plan
Stakeholder Mgmt: Communication,
Conflict, Etc., Plans
Materiel, Suppliers, MRP Systems
Human Resource Systems & Databases
Facilities
Policies, Common ProcessesFinancial/
Accounting Systems
Functions & CoEs
Analytical Tools
ITSystems
Data Mgmt Tools & Systems
Labs,M&S
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IMF – Five Core Processes
• Manage Requirements – Project: Contract, SOW, IMP/IMS, Financials, Suppliers, etc.– Product Life Cycle: (Classical “Systems Engineering”)
• Manage Baselines– Enterprise, Project, Product, and Performance Baselines– Identify, Lock Location, Control Configuration, Audit Compliance
• Manage Performance to Plan– Status (Metrics), Risk, Decision Mgmt, Corrective Action– Drill-Down Integrated with Req’ts, Baseline, and Risk Mgmt Systems
• Manage Risk and Opportunity– Focus on Risk to Meeting Requirements– Multi-Level From Tasks to Major Program Events
• Integrate the Program– Proactive Boundary Spanning Processes, Customer Expectations,
Planning, Communication, Information, Systems and Processes, Functions, Technical, Training, and Closeout
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Integrated Management Framework (IMF)
Where is IMF Applicable?
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IMF and Program Type / PhaseIMF Is Most Powerful When Product Baseline is Evolving
Concept Development /
Technology Demonstration
System Concept
Selection, Down Select
Operational Needs &
Requirements Analysis
System Development
& Demonstration
Production & Deployment
4 5 632
Technology Upgrade & Insertion
Technology Development& Risk Reduction
Sustainment & Disposal
7
Concept Chart
The ‘Area’ of the Program Type / Phase Implies the Degree to Which IMF Will ‘Help’ the Effort
1
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Questionnaires Guide Tailoring IMF to Program
Type & Phase Complexity Infrastructure Maturity
System
Operational Needs & Req’ts Analysis
Concept Selection, Down Select
Concept Development / Demonstration
System Development & Demonstration
Production & Deployment
Sustainment & Disposal
Team Members Co-Located
# of Skill Sets
Length of Program
Other Bus Areas / Sectors on Team
Suppliers on Team
Done Similar Tasks Before
Cost
Priority
# of People
Project Req’ts
Baseline Mgmt
Performance Mgmt
Integration
• Comprehensive Scope Mgmt System
• WBS, IMP, IMS• Schedules Integrated Vertically &
Horizontally & Config. ControlledProduct Req’ts
• Integrated, Traceable System: Req’ts Analysis, Functional Analysis /Allocation, Trades, Decisions, V&V
• Proactive, Customer Mgmt, Planning, Communication, Information, Systems & Processes
Risk Mgmt • Event Based, Look-Ahead System
• Baselines with Rating Criteria• Structured Decision Making• Corrective Action System
• Program & Project Info Structured, Configuration Controlled, Audited, Available When Needed
Program
• Program Described (Road Map, Funding, SOW, Etc)
• Key Personnel In Place / Trained• Qualified System Architect • Defined Enterprise Baseline
Technology
Development
Insertion
Identification
Worked with Same Team Before
Funding Source Internal or External
Worked with Same Customer Before
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Integrated Management Framework (IMF)
What does IMF Look Like When
Implemented?
Examples of Some Key Elements of a Program Under IMF
Manage Requirements
(What are We Supposed to
Do?)
Manage Baselines (BLs) (Config. Mgmt)
(Write It Down)
Evaluate Performance
(How are We Doing?)
Program Integration (Integrated Program Mgmt Plan)• IPT Handbook • Or Communication Plan• Schedule Tree• PIT Assessment Cycle• Program Control Board• Risk / Opportunity Board• Process / System Board• Weekly Program Reviews
System Integration (System Integration Plan)• Analysis/Model ICPs• SEIT Cycle • Config Control Boards• Eng Review Board• Design Reviews
Element Integration• Drawing Tree• Interface Control Plans • SEIT Meetings
• BL Mgmt Plan/Proc• Des, Build, Supt. Plans• JPCB, PCB• Process Control Board• Four Program Baselines
• Config Mgmt Plan• CCB, SRB, ERB• Interface Control
Working Group• Product Baselines
• Designs, Anal & Test Plans & Reports
• Components / Parts, Subsys, SW
• Interfaces, ICDs
• Risk Mgmt Plan/Proc• Risk / Opp. Mgmt Board• Look-Ahead, 90 day & IMP• Risk/Opportunity DB• Issue/Action DB
• Technical Risk Mitigation Plans
• Risk ID Matrices• Simulations• Waterfall Charts
• Make / Buy Decisions• Part Shortage Mgmt
Process Steps
• Identify• Analyze• Plan• Track• Control
• Identify Customer Req’ts• Develop System Req’ts• Develop Product Req’ts• Analyze & Validate Req’ts• Define (Technical) Solution• Verify and Validate Product
• Plan & Identify BLs• Publish• Manage Change• Track Status• Audit Integrity
Core Process
• Req’ts Mgmt Plan/Proc• Quality & Security Plans• Decision Mgmt Process• Supplier Mgmt Plan/Proc• Program Control Board• Process Quality Audits• Contract > SOW > Sched >
Resources > Budget
• ORD; MND• System Specs (Tree)• Specialty Integration
Plan• Req’ts Anal / Func Anal
Integrated Test Plans• “VCRI”• Slate
• EDRM• Element / Subsystem
Specs• Standard Parts• Process Specs• Material Specs• Component Acceptance
Criteria
• Baseline• Collect Data• Integrate• Evaluate• Report
• Performance Mgmt Plan• CPAR Mgmt Process• Wkly Program Review• EVMS, Sched Tracking,
Issues Traffic
• TPM Plan(s) & Process• Config. Change Traffic• Technical Performance
Measurands
• Shortages, Rejects, MRB• IPD: Sched Commitment
Tracking: Part: Design, Buy, Install, etc.
IMF Implementation Matrix
Plans, Processes, DocumentsMeetings, Boards, (Team Interaction)Inputs, Outputs, Tools, etc.
Key:
Manage Risk / Opportunity
(Will we Do It? & Can We Do it
Better?)
Plans, Documents, Mtgs, Boards, Tools, & Work Products (Examples
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Result of Sample Plan for Implementing IMFSituation at End of Month Three
• IPMP and IPT Handbook Published• Availability of Key Personnel Controlled• Regular Meetings Controlled: Agendas, Attendance, Minutes• Baseline Documents Indexed and Configuration Controlled• IMP In Place • Schedule Tree In Place & Schedules Vertically Integrated
– Horizontal Integration Is In Work• Integrating Charters (RAA) In Place• Req’ts Mgmt System – Front End Implemented
– Contract Parsed, Specs Depend on Maturity of Original System• Event Based Performance Mgmt Implemented (Still Subjective)• Decision Mgmt System – Front End Implemented
– Program Control Board In Place– Corrective Action Board Meeting Monthly
• Risk Mgmt System Initiated (Depends on Maturity of Original System)
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TechnicalInformation
MultidisciplineDesign
ProductDevelopmentProgram Information Systems - Example
Project Performance
Baselines
Performance Rpts Repository
Performance Mgmt System Decision Mgmt System
Tech. Performance
BaselinesCorrective Action
System
Corrective Action Repository
Performance Mgmt Info System Interface
Req’ts Mgmt Info System Interface
Req’ts Mgmt System (SLATE)Req’ts
Reports Repository
Design Decision Data Repository
(Trades, Mtgs, Decision Memos, Etc.)
Design Decision Index System
Design Support Data Repository (Specs, Analysis, Test Req’ts & Reports)
Risk Mgmt Information System Interface
Risk Tracking System (eRisk)
Risk Mgmt Reports
Repository
Risk Analysis / Decision Data
Repository
Risk Decision Indexing System
Risk Mgmt Reporting
System
Risk Decision System
Risk Database
PMIS Index & Repository
Program Mgmt Info System Interface
Interfaces to Other Systems
Project Mgmt Info System Interface
Project Mgmt Repository / Index
Schedules
EVMS
Budget
Staffing
Capital
Etc. . . .
Portal
Product Data Mgmt System Interface
Design Data
C/PIOSBuy, Fab,
Build Data
Sup-port
Req’ts Mgmt
System
Test Sys
Configuration (& Change) Control System
Links
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Org/TeamLevel
ProgramLevel
TaskLevel
Metric
Task &Resp
person
Timeline | | | | | |
S R # ofEvents
| | | | | |Timeline
Plan
Actual to PlanOR
Resp Org - - - -- - - -
Product / Event | | | | | |
Resp Sub Org
- - - -- - - -
Event / Accom | | | | | |
IMF - Performance Management Model, Procedures, Guides, & Checklists
• Program Management and Control Plan
• Performance Management Plan
• Define Performance and Reporting Req’ts Procedure
• Performance Management Checklist
• Performance Visibility & Database Mgmt System
• Flowdown of Performance Mgmt Req’ts to Suppliers
• Metrics Selection
• Technical Performance Measurement (TPM) Procedure
• Quantitative Mgmt Measurement Work Instruction
• Performance System and Metrics Audits Work Inst
• Performance Analysis
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TechnicalInformation
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How Do I Build an IMF on an Existing
Program?
Create the IPMP, IPT Handbook, and Supporting Docs from Templates That Include Tutorials and Example Formats
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IMF Tailored & Implemented By Two Documents
• Integrated Program Management Plan (IPMP)• Implements/Tailors IMF for the Program• Objectives, Schedules, Priorities• Mgmt Approaches for Every Area• Policy, Procedures, and Authorities• Replaces Multiple Independent Plans
• IPT Handbook• Foundation for Program Integration• Tells Program Personnel
• How the Program Will Operate• Charters and RAAs• Communication & Issue Resolution• Meetings – Who, What, When, Where
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Society Legal Aspects
LogisticsSupply Chain
SystemsEngineering
Economics
Risk
TechnicalInformation
MultidisciplineDesign
ProductDevelopment
Use Templates to Generate Integrated Program Mgmt Plan and Supporting Procedures
Business Mgmt
Corporate, Sector Shared Services, and
Business Area / Homeroom Processes, Policies, and Guides
Materiel
HR
EL&T
LOQA
Contract
Integrated Program Mgmt Plan
Government Regulations
TailoredProcedureTemplates
RequirementsRequirements
PlansPlans ProceduresProcedures
1. Introduction, Scope, Purpose
2. Executive Summary
3. Program Overview
4. Organization
5. Administration
6. Management Systems
7. Project Req’ts Mgmt
8. System Life Cycle Mgmt
9. Baseline Management
10. Performance Mgmt
11. Risk / Opportunity Mgmt
12. Program Integration
Integrates (Combines) • Program Management Plan• System Engineering Mgmt Plan• Risk Management Plan• Configuration Management Plan• Performance Management Plan
Interactive Templates
IPT Handbook
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ManagementTracking the Constant of Change
ManagementHistory
Society Legal Aspects
LogisticsSupply Chain
SystemsEngineering
Economics
Risk
TechnicalInformation
MultidisciplineDesign
ProductDevelopmentCycle Weekly Program Reviews
Special Topics / Action Items / CalendarCustomer Satisfaction / Top Program Issues and Risks
Strategic Rhythm / Horizontal Integration Strategic Rhythm / Horizontal Integration
Week 1
• Shortages• Staffing• Rework• Audits• Req’ts Volatility
ProcessProcess
Week 2
• Team Reports• Accomplishments• Customer
Satisfaction• TPMs• Changes
ProductProduct
Week 3
• EVMS Data & Indicators
• By Program & by Team
• Performance to IMP/IMS
Cost & ScheduleCost & Schedule
Week 4
• Top Issues & Risk and Associated Closure/ Mitigation Plans
• Corrective Action
Risk / Opp.Risk / Opp.
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ManagementTracking the Constant of Change
ManagementHistory
Society Legal Aspects
LogisticsSupply Chain
SystemsEngineering
Economics
Risk
TechnicalInformation
MultidisciplineDesign
ProductDevelopment
Integrated Management Framework (IMF)Summary
• IMF Is a Scalable Program Infrastructure That Uses System Engineering Principles To Implement an Executable Program
• Features – Proactive Boundary Spanning– Four Baseline Categories– Five Integrated Core Processes
• Implemented by Interactive Creation of– Integrated Program Management Plan– IPT Handbook
Integrating Risk Management is Critical for Success
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ManagementTracking the Constant of Change
ManagementHistory
Society Legal Aspects
LogisticsSupply Chain
SystemsEngineering
Economics
Risk
TechnicalInformation
MultidisciplineDesign
ProductDevelopment
Panel Discussion
All Speakers
Topic 8
04/20/23 130Engineering & Technology Management Group
Eng
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ring Technology
ManagementTracking the Constant of Change
ManagementHistory
Society Legal Aspects
LogisticsSupply Chain
SystemsEngineering
Economics
Risk
TechnicalInformation
MultidisciplineDesign
ProductDevelopment
Join Us Next Year for
The Delta Forum 2004
Designing and Integrating 21st Century Systems
Next Year
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