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SPC MD 821
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Mesoscale Discussion 821
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0821
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1037 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AR...FAR ERN OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 281537Z - 281630Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR STRONG TO LOCALLY SVR WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY A
MCS MOVING INTO WRN AR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HRS. A WW IS NOT
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATE LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A LONG-LIVED MCS HAS INTENSIFIED ACROSS SERN/E-CNTRL
OK...WITH STRONG TO LOCALLY SVR WIND GUSTS LIKELY ACCOMPANYING PARTS
OF THE LINE. A MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS IN PLACE DOWNSHEAR FROM
THE MCS...BUT VWP DATA FROM LIT SUGGESTS DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WEAKENS
WITH EWD EXTENT INTO CNTRL AR. THE THREAT FOR SVR WINDS IS NOT
EXPECTED TO EXTEND TOO FAR EAST INTO AR...ALTHOUGH CONVECTION MAY
PERSIST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
..ROGERS/GOSS.. 05/28/2015
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...
LAT...LON 35609365 34549347 33769384 33679447 33899502 34449502
35249505 35729484 35899392 35609365
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Page last modified:
May 28, 2015
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