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Evaluating & Using General Theories in Ecology Ethan P. White (@ ethanwhite ) with Xiao Xiao , Daniel J. McGlinn , & Katherine M. Thibault. General tests of general theory. General theories. General ecological theories explain a broad array of ecological patterns - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Evaluating & Using General Theories in EcologyEthan P. White (@ethanwhite) with Xiao Xiao, Daniel J. McGlinn, & Katherine M. Thibault
15745 sites8802 species4 major taxa50 million individuals
Code: github.com/weecology Data: weecology.org/data Grants: weecology.org/grants Twitter: @ethanwhiteBlog: jabberwocky.weecology.org
MaxEnt models
General tests of general theoryGeneral theories
Using general theories to model diversity
Theory
Diversity Patterns
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• General ecological theories explain a broad array of ecological patterns
• They facilitate research and management at the scale of climate and land use change
• To evaluate general theories rigorously it is necessary to use large amounts of data (to get general results) and multiple predictions (to determine if the theory is right, or just lucky)
• We evaluate the Maximum Entropy Theory of Ecology and use it to model diversity at continental scales.
Use all available data Use all available predictions
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Maximum Entropy models describe the most likely state of a system that satisfies a set on constraints.
Good models for complicated systems without dominant processes (e.g., toddlers and ecology)
This MaxEnt model captures commonness and rarity across the globe and diversity of life.
When pushed to predict multiple patterns the model produces decidedly mixed results.
𝑅 (𝑛 ,𝜀|𝑆0 ,𝑁0 ,𝐸0 , 𝐴0¿
∑𝑛=1
𝑁0
𝑛 ∙ Π (𝑛|𝐴 ,𝑛0 , 𝐴0 )=𝑁 0𝐴𝐴0
Specify a joint distribution
Maximize entropy
Subject to constraints
We practice open science
Predict Rarity
Extrapolate across scales
Model diversity
Environment
Richness & Abundance
Harte et al. (2009)Ecology Letters
Acknowledgements
Poster
HarteLab
CAREERAward
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