Space Weather: Why it matters and what we can do about it

16 May 2011

William J. Burke

Air Force Research Laboratory Space Vehicles Directorate

Boston College Institute for Scientific Research

DMSPC/NOFS

CRESS

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U.S. Space Program: Strategic Perspective

Administration Policy or Treaty

• Eisenhower 1955 - Open Skies Proposal

• Kennedy 1963 - Nuclear Weapons Test Ban Treaty

• Johnson 1967 - Principles Governing the Exploration and Use of Outer Space

• Nixon 1972 - International Liability for Damage Caused by Space Objects

• Carter 1979 - Prohibition of Military or Other Hostile Use of Environment Modification Techniques

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Space Weather Overview

Near-Earth space is the very hostile environment in which we mustconduct very expensive operations for both national security and advancing scientific understanding about our star and the cosmos.

• Comparison with severe terrestrial weather

• Solar sources of space climatology and weather:

– Extreme ultraviolet radiation maintenance of the ionosphere and thermosphere

– Solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field coupling to Earth’s magnetic field

– Energy storage and transport in the magnetosphere

depletions that map to image depletions/enhancements on the bottomside.

– Magnetic storms: a big electric circuit in the sky

• Some space weather impacts from an Air Force perspective

– Lost in space Satellite and debris tracking

– Communications and navigation ionospheric irregularities

– Radiation damage to spacecraft components taking control

Google

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Comparative Meteorologies

• New England Weather

– Hurricane of ‘38

– Blizzard of ‘78

• Comparative Sizes

– Thermonuclear device ~ 1015 Joules = 1 MT

– Solar luminosity 4 x 1026 Joules/s = 400 Billion MT/s

– Solar flux on Earth ~1017 Joules/s = 100 MT/s

– Stormtime power into > 1012 Joules/s = 1 MT/hrupper atmosphere

Solar/space disturbances are just too big to ignore.

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The Visible and Invisible Sun

Simultaneous views contrasting quiescent photosphere at visible wavelengths with turbulent X-ray emissions of the corona.

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Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) observed by LASCO white light coronagraph on SOHO

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SPACE WEATHER EFFECTS:

Solar Wind- Magnetosphere Interactions

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Solar wind:• Speeds: 300 – 1,000 km/s• Densities: 2 – 100 cm-3

• IMF: 2 - 80 nT• Imposed stormtime potentials on magnetosphere up to 250 kV• Imposed field-aligned currents to ionosphere up to several 10s of MA• Power: several tera (1012) Watts

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Satellite Drag Environment

Air Force Space Command tracks about 12,800 objects.

About 10% are active payloads.

Others are inactive payloads, rocket bodies and associated debris.

Over 4000 objects are at altitudes below 700 km where aerodynamic drag is significant.

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Two Major Space Weather Effects

Degradation/loss of signals

C/NOFS

Satellite/debris drag

CHAMP

Actual Position

Predicted PositionProblems

Responses

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Magnetic Storm Effects

Creation of a new radiation belt by a shock wave during the March 1991 magnetic storm

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Never has so much depended on something so small!

Current US policy calls for use of commercial off-the-shelf micro-electronics on all future spacecraft.

Tradeoff: Cost versus reliability/survivability

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Chip in the eye of a needle

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Space Situation Awareness

Compact Environmental Anomaly Sensor (CEASE)

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Mitigation of Space Hazards

• Use available monitors to predict magnetic storms

• Automate situation awareness for satellites

– Radiation environment monitors - CEASE

– Spacecraft discharging

• Control radiation belt fluxes

– Number of energetic particles not large

– Give nature a helping hand: ELF/VLF antennas in space

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High Altitude Nuclear Detonation (HAND)Impacts Multiple Systems

• High-altitude nuclear tests of 1958 and 1962 demonstrated wide-area affects. Significant military system impacts

– Radars: Blackout, absorption, noise, clutter, scintillation

– Communications: Blackout, scintillation fading, noise, connectivity

– Optical Sensors: IR, Visible, UV backgrounds, clutter; radio noise

– Satellites: Trapped radiation; radiation damage to electronics

– Electronics & Power: Electromagnetic pulse; electrical systems damage

STARFISH1.4 MT at 400 km

ORANGE 3.8 MT at 43 km

KINGFISH__ MT at __ km

TEAK3.8 MT at 76.8 km

CHECKMATE__ MT at __ km

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HAND Belt50 kT, 31.3 deg, 75.2 deg, 200km

Nuclear vs Natural Environment (~800km Polar Orbit)

1E+01E+11E+21E+31E+41E+51E+6

1 14 30 365Days

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NuclearNatural

High Altitude Nuclear Detonation produces huge increase in radiation for satellites – all LEO spacecraft fail within months – Devastating to our military intelligence, national security and world economy!

High Altitude Nuclear DetonationWhat is the problem?

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30 KT, 500 km

10 KT, 300 km20 KT150 km

500 KT 125 km

Days into Campaign

Blue satellite attrition curvesSource: AFRL/VSES

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Physics of Pitch-Angle Scattering

ELF/VLF Waves Control Particle Lifetimes

L shell = distance/RE

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Key scientific questions:Wave-particle scattering: Are interactions diffusive or coherent? Can tailored wave forms improve efficiency?

Global wave propagation and amplification: Where does wave power go in the far field? Can waves be amplified through plasma processes?

ELF-VLF wave injection efficiency: Can ground-based antennas radiate VLF efficiently through the ionosphere? Can space-based antennas radiate VLF into the far-field at high power levels?

VLF wave generation

Wave propagation

Wave-particle interaction

Ionosphere

Outer-zone electrons

HAND belt electrons

Radiation Belt Remediation (RBR)Radiation Belt Remediation (RBR)

Mission: Understand the physical methods of remediating an enhanced radiation belt as a result of a HAND using VLFPayoff: LEO space asset lifetimes are extended and the reverts the radiation environment to acceptable levels for spacecraft replenishment following attack

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Thin Film Photovoltaics• 10X more Available Power• Enables 50 – 100kW range• High radiation tolerance and

thermal annealing

Radiation-Belt Remediation• 50-m Boom & Truss used for VLF

transmit & receive antenna• Actively counter effects of Solar Storms

or HAND

System ID & Adaptive Control• 60X decrease in structural dynamics• ACS autonomously corrects for structure changes due to radiation, failure, etc• Enabling technology for future lightweight structures

25-m

16-m

5-m

25-m

6000-km x 12000-km MEO orbit

Cygnus (DSX)Functional Baseline

Goal: Remove Power, Aperture, and MEO as constraints to DoD Space Capability

Transformational Deployed Structures• 25-m Boom• 25-m Truss• Roll-out Solar Array structure

Space Weather Sensor Array• Data for models in critical orbit• Validate Radiation-Belt Remediation• Correlate Structures and PV radiation

effects

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CLUSTER observations of HAARP VLF signals – 26 Jan 03

3.125 kHz

3.375 kHz

“First light” from conjugate point VLF buoy

RBR Phase 1 Results:VLF from HAARPRBR Phase 1 Results:VLF from HAARP

HAARP experiments are crucial to understand VLF injection/amplification in the magnetosphere– a key enabler for an operational mitigation system

HAARP experiments are crucial to understand VLF injection/amplification in the magnetosphere– a key enabler for an operational mitigation system

Initial 2-hop >10 dB amplification – steady amplitude for next several hops!

HAARP ionospheric heating facility

2-hop 4-hop 8-hop6-hop 10-hop

One experiment complete before HAARP down for antenna-build

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Some Conclusions

• U.S. enjoys vast superiority in space operations.

• Sensors and electronics on space-based platforms are

vulnerable to solar-induced hazards.

• Our experience in space is still quite limited.

– Can satellites survive the solar storm of the century?

– Warnings reduce RISK.

– Space weather forecasting is a necessity.

– Engineers must know why anomalies occur.

– Radiation control gives nature a helping hand.

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Backup Pictures

AF Geospace

Radar Clutter Map

SATCOM Outage Map

DMSP Models

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Backup Pictures

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Hazards to Space Systems

Space Particle Hazards

• Radiation degradation and electronics upsets• Surface and internal

charging / discharging

Ionospheric Hazards

• Comm/Nav link degradation and outage• Surveillance clutter• Satellite Drag

Adversary-Induced Hazards

• High energy particles• RF Waves

Direct Solar Hazards

• Radio, optical and X-ray interference• Solar energetic particle

degradation and clutter