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Space Research Institute, Moscow, Russia, L.B.Vanina-Dart ([email protected]) Tropical cyclones (TCs) are the “ocean–atmosphere” system natural instability events. The landing TCs are mostly dangerous for people. In this paper author analyzed the strongest well-known hurricanes, which damaged coast populations of different countries for the last 10 years. In the base of this paper author put search of dependencies between the ionospheric and atmospheric parameters ( from satellite and ground both ) during TC action in prediction purpose. The landing hurricanes influence to ionosphere

Space Research Institute, Moscow, Russia, L.B.Vanina-Dart ([email protected]) Tropical cyclones (TCs) are the “ocean–atmosphere” system natural instability

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Page 1: Space Research Institute, Moscow, Russia, L.B.Vanina-Dart (vandart@seeingear.org) Tropical cyclones (TCs) are the “ocean–atmosphere” system natural instability

Space Research Institute, Moscow, Russia,L.B.Vanina-Dart ([email protected])Tropical cyclones (TCs) are the “ocean–atmosphere” system natural instability

events. The landing TCs are mostly dangerous for people. In this paper author

analyzed the strongest well-known hurricanes, which damaged coast

populations of different countries for the last 10 years. In the base of this paper author put search of dependencies between the ionospheric and atmospheric parameters

( from satellite and ground both ) during TC action in prediction purpose.

The landing hurricanes influence

to ionosphere

Page 2: Space Research Institute, Moscow, Russia, L.B.Vanina-Dart (vandart@seeingear.org) Tropical cyclones (TCs) are the “ocean–atmosphere” system natural instability

It is known that the whole spectrum of powerful dynamical phenomena is originated in the tropical zone of the atmosphere.

The most intense of these phenomena are TCs, which are possible potential sources of the influence from “below”.

Catastrophic atmospheric vortices, which originate near the equator, and develop in the tropical zone of the Earth’s

atmosphere, present a peculiar mechanism of effective heat effluence under such atmospheric conditions,

when the action of ordinary mechanisms (the main mechanisms are turbulent convection and global circulation) becomes

evidently insufficient.

Thus, the catastrophic atmospheric vortex systems play an important (and Thus, the catastrophic atmospheric vortex systems play an important (and possibly determining) rolepossibly determining) role

in the formation of the temperature regime of the Earth in the formation of the temperature regime of the Earth (the greenhouse effect)(the greenhouse effect),,

removing excess heat and preventing from strong overheating of the removing excess heat and preventing from strong overheating of the atmosphere (of its tropical part)atmosphere (of its tropical part)

and the surface ocean layer in the tropical zone and the surface ocean layer in the tropical zone.

Page 3: Space Research Institute, Moscow, Russia, L.B.Vanina-Dart (vandart@seeingear.org) Tropical cyclones (TCs) are the “ocean–atmosphere” system natural instability

“Being a product of ionization of various

neutral gas components, the Earth’s

ionosphere rapidly enough (for example, at

heights

of the Е layer, the characteristic time of a

reaction to changes in the ionization rate by

auroral discrete type electrons is a few

seconds) reacts to changes

in space radiation and also in the composition

of the neutral atmosphere.”

L.B. Vanina-Dart, A.A. Romanov, E.A. Sharkov, Influence of a tropical cyclone

on the upper ionosphere according to tomography sounding data over

Sakhalin Island in November 2007// 2011, Geomagnetism and Aeronomy,

December 2011, Volume 51,Issue 6, p. 774-782

Page 4: Space Research Institute, Moscow, Russia, L.B.Vanina-Dart (vandart@seeingear.org) Tropical cyclones (TCs) are the “ocean–atmosphere” system natural instability

There are some possible ways of TC-ionosphere interactions: There are some possible ways of TC-ionosphere interactions:

1. TCs would affect conditions in the ionosphere through both the atmospheric GWs 1. TCs would affect conditions in the ionosphere through both the atmospheric GWs from their strong convective towers and the associated synoptic-scale motions in the from their strong convective towers and the associated synoptic-scale motions in the

stratosphere and ionosphere. (G.J.Bell,1981). stratosphere and ionosphere. (G.J.Bell,1981). 22. An effect of external electric currents on the global atmosphere-. An effect of external electric currents on the global atmosphere-

ionosphere el. circuit may be one of possible mechanisms of interaction between ionosphere el. circuit may be one of possible mechanisms of interaction between atmospheric and ionospheric components. External currents with a horizontal scale atmospheric and ionospheric components. External currents with a horizontal scale of about one hundred of kms may be related to the vertical large - scale convection of about one hundred of kms may be related to the vertical large - scale convection of the cloudy atmosphere in the zone of a TC and to the charge separation in this of the cloudy atmosphere in the zone of a TC and to the charge separation in this

region. The electric field disturbance arisesregion. The electric field disturbance arises due to perturbation in the atmosphere – ionosphere electric circuit due to perturbation in the atmosphere – ionosphere electric circuit

generated by the upward transport of charged water drops and aerosolsgenerated by the upward transport of charged water drops and aerosols in TC convection zone (Isaev et al, 2006). in TC convection zone (Isaev et al, 2006).

3.3.GWs generated at tropospheric altitudes propagate to the F-region. GWs generated GWs generated at tropospheric altitudes propagate to the F-region. GWs generated from storms break near 100 km and produce secondary waves that continue to from storms break near 100 km and produce secondary waves that continue to

propagate upward GWs modulate the E-region plasma producing polarization fields propagate upward GWs modulate the E-region plasma producing polarization fields that map to F-region altitudes. Strong convection cells produce a wide spectrum of that map to F-region altitudes. Strong convection cells produce a wide spectrum of

GWs. GWs increase in amplitude with increasing altitude and may become unstable. GWs. GWs increase in amplitude with increasing altitude and may become unstable. Only waves propagating at the certain angles and with the correct amplitude can Only waves propagating at the certain angles and with the correct amplitude can

reach thermospheric altitudes. Once in the thermosphere, only those waves oriented reach thermospheric altitudes. Once in the thermosphere, only those waves oriented to the magnetic field in a particular manner may produce ionospheric disturbances to the magnetic field in a particular manner may produce ionospheric disturbances

(dr.Rebecca Bishop, PSL/SSAL, 30 March 2012) (dr.Rebecca Bishop, PSL/SSAL, 30 March 2012)

Page 5: Space Research Institute, Moscow, Russia, L.B.Vanina-Dart (vandart@seeingear.org) Tropical cyclones (TCs) are the “ocean–atmosphere” system natural instability

Effects of typhoon Matsa on ionospheric TEC.Tian Mao, JingSong Wang, GuangLin Yang, Tao Yu, JinSong Ping, YuCheng Suo

Chinese Science Bulletin March 2010, Volume 55, Issue 8, pp 712-717 Date: 29 Aug 2009

“The effects of typhoon Matsa on the ionosphere are studied by using GPS-TEC data observed at about 50 GPS stations. It is shown that the ionosphere has already influenced and TEC tends to increase before the landing of Matsa, and the difference of TEC from its monthly median over the typhoon area is about 5 TECU. With the landing of Matsa, both the magnitude and the area of increased TEC decrease. One day after the landing of Matsa, TEC reaches its minimum and is lower than the monthly median. In comparison of TEC along the typhoon’s path with that along three reference paths far from the typhoon, it is found that typhoon’s impact on TEC can be fully distinguished. The evolution of TEC variation has the same tendency as reported typhoon-induced foF2.”

Page 6: Space Research Institute, Moscow, Russia, L.B.Vanina-Dart (vandart@seeingear.org) Tropical cyclones (TCs) are the “ocean–atmosphere” system natural instability

The strongest well-known hurricanes, which damaged coast populations of different countries for the last 10 years (W.Pacific).Year Name Date Wind Cat 2002 Typhoon RUSA 22 AUG-01 SEP 115 4 2003 Super Typhoon MAEMI 05-13 SEP 150 5 2003 Super Typhoon IMBUDO 16-24 JUL 130 42004 Super Typhoon TOKAGE 12-20 OCT 120 52004 Typhoon RANANIM 07-13 AUG 90 22005 Super Typhoon HAITANG 11-19 JUL 140 5 2006 Super Typhoon SAOMAI 04-10 AUG 140 5…...

Typhoon Morakot in August 2009 The typhoon triggered record rainfall in

Taiwan – resulting in widespread damage, flooding and mudslides, with the estimated loss of more than 600 lives. This summer,

the country was more prepared when Typhoon Nanmadol hit Taiwan: 8,000 were instantly evacuated and 22,000

military personnel were on standby.

Super Typhoon Haiyan, one of the most powerful storms ever recorded on Earth, struck the Philippines Nov. 8, 2013, it tore a wide swath of destruction across large parts of the island nation.

Page 7: Space Research Institute, Moscow, Russia, L.B.Vanina-Dart (vandart@seeingear.org) Tropical cyclones (TCs) are the “ocean–atmosphere” system natural instability

2010–11 Australian region cyclone seasonSeason summary map

First system formed 28 October 2010

Last system dissipated 20 April 2011

Strongest storm Yasi – 929 hPa (mbar), 205 km/h (125 mph) (10-minute sustained) Tropical lows 28

Tropical cyclones 10

Severe tropical cyclones 5 Total fatalities 3 total

Total damage $3.64 billion (2011 USD)

Page 8: Space Research Institute, Moscow, Russia, L.B.Vanina-Dart (vandart@seeingear.org) Tropical cyclones (TCs) are the “ocean–atmosphere” system natural instability

Strongest storm Yasi – 929 hPa (mbar), 205 km/h

- 19.70S, 146.90E

- 34 0S, 150.70E

- 27.50S, 152.90E

C yclone Yasi m ade landfall between Inn isfail and Cardwell at around m idnight local tim e (1400 G M T W ednesday). The eye of the storm was reported to be 35km (22 m iles) in w idth, w ith a front stretching across 650km (400 m iles)

Page 9: Space Research Institute, Moscow, Russia, L.B.Vanina-Dart (vandart@seeingear.org) Tropical cyclones (TCs) are the “ocean–atmosphere” system natural instability

01/12 01/19 02/06 02/08 02/09

02/14 02/15 02/17 02/18

02/19 02/20 02/21 03/05 03/06

Page 10: Space Research Institute, Moscow, Russia, L.B.Vanina-Dart (vandart@seeingear.org) Tropical cyclones (TCs) are the “ocean–atmosphere” system natural instability

2013–14 Australian region cyclone season

Season summary map

First system formed 20 November 2013

Last system dissipated 5 May 2014

Strongest storm Ita – 930 hPa

(mbar), 215 km/h (130 mph)

(10-minute sustained)

Tropical lows 24

Tropical cyclones 10

Severe tropical cyclones 5

Total fatalities 22 total

Total damage $957.8 million

(2014 USD)

Page 11: Space Research Institute, Moscow, Russia, L.B.Vanina-Dart (vandart@seeingear.org) Tropical cyclones (TCs) are the “ocean–atmosphere” system natural instability

Strongest storm Ita – 930 hPa (mbar),

215 km/h

MTSAT Wind

Shear (kts) →

Page 12: Space Research Institute, Moscow, Russia, L.B.Vanina-Dart (vandart@seeingear.org) Tropical cyclones (TCs) are the “ocean–atmosphere” system natural instability

-270S, 1530E

Page 13: Space Research Institute, Moscow, Russia, L.B.Vanina-Dart (vandart@seeingear.org) Tropical cyclones (TCs) are the “ocean–atmosphere” system natural instability

- 19.70S, 146.90E

-27.50S, 152.90E

-12.50S, 1310E

Data F10.7

2014-04-01-1532014-04-02-1552014-04-03-1532014-04-04-1572014-04-05-1422014-04-06-1412014-04-07-1402014-04-08-1322014-04-09-1312014-04-10-1372014-04-11-1382014-04-12-1372014-04-13-1382014-04-14-1512014-04-15-1632014-04-16-185

2014-04-16-1852014-04-17-1802014-04-18-1742014-04-19-1712014-04-20-1642014-04-21-1602014-04-22-1462014-04-23-1382014-04-24-1322014-04-25-1262014-04-26-1222014-04-27-1202014-04-28-1232014-04-29-1222014-04-30-126

Page 14: Space Research Institute, Moscow, Russia, L.B.Vanina-Dart (vandart@seeingear.org) Tropical cyclones (TCs) are the “ocean–atmosphere” system natural instability
Page 15: Space Research Institute, Moscow, Russia, L.B.Vanina-Dart (vandart@seeingear.org) Tropical cyclones (TCs) are the “ocean–atmosphere” system natural instability

Hainan (HA419) 19.4 109.0

G uangzhou (G U421) 23.1 113.4

O kinawa (O K426) 26.3 127.8

Yam agawa (YG 431) 31.2 130.6

Je ju (JJ433) 33.5 126.5

I-Cheon (IC437) 37.14 127.5

Kokubunji CRL_Type10 (TO 536) 35.7 139.5

Page 16: Space Research Institute, Moscow, Russia, L.B.Vanina-Dart (vandart@seeingear.org) Tropical cyclones (TCs) are the “ocean–atmosphere” system natural instability
Page 17: Space Research Institute, Moscow, Russia, L.B.Vanina-Dart (vandart@seeingear.org) Tropical cyclones (TCs) are the “ocean–atmosphere” system natural instability
Page 18: Space Research Institute, Moscow, Russia, L.B.Vanina-Dart (vandart@seeingear.org) Tropical cyclones (TCs) are the “ocean–atmosphere” system natural instability

Relationships between meteorological and ionospheric phenomena come about through vertical

motions in the ionosphere induced by underlying large scale weather systems or from gravity waves which originate from the surface or upper troposphere.

The amplitude of gravity waves (GWs) of certain frequencies increases exponentially a with height

because of the decreasing density. The growth factor is given, if by the square root of the ratio of the

atmospheric density at source and at the height of interest. A displacement at the earth's surface of a few centimeters can originate an atmospheric GW which

will grow in amplitude to several kilometers at ionospheric levels. Growth factors of 104 to 105 are

typical. The layers of constant electron density move up and down with oscillatory motions similar to the

acoustic pressure wave itself.

Page 19: Space Research Institute, Moscow, Russia, L.B.Vanina-Dart (vandart@seeingear.org) Tropical cyclones (TCs) are the “ocean–atmosphere” system natural instability

Conclusion

“Relationships between meteorological and ionospheric phenomena come about through vertical motions in the ionosphere induced by underlying large scale weather systems or from gravity waves which originate from the

surface or upper troposphere. “