Southeast U.S. Rental Housing Overview

2015 CAHEC

Partners Conference

Patrick M. Bowen

Bowen National Research

June 20, 2015

National Trends – Occupancy Rates

• National Apartment Occupancy Rate = ~ 95%, Trending Up

Source: Axiometrics

• Tax Credit Projects ~ 97%+

National Trends – Rent Growth

• 2014 Rent Growth 3.5% to 4.5%

• Tax Credit Rent Growth 2.5% to 3.0%

National Trends – Multifamily Construction

• New Multifamily Starts Increased in Each of Past 5 Years• New Multifamily Starts in 2014 Exceeded Pre-recession Levels

Regional Comparison – Residential Building Permits

• Each of the four regional states had increased building permit activity between 2011 and 2013• North Carolina experienced the greatest increase since 2011• W. Virginia experienced nominal increase over past 5 years

State Building Permits (2010-2014)

05,000

10,00015,00020,00025,000

30,00035,00040,00045,000

50,00055,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Year

Tot

al P

erm

its

North Carolina South Carolina Virginia West Virginia

Regional Comparison – LIHTC Vacancy Rates

State

Surveyed

Units Vacancy

N. Carolina 10,923 1.8%

S. Carolina 5,287 1.1%

Virginia 16,021 2.2%

W. Virginia 1,492 2.2%

Region 33,723 1.9%

Regional Comparison – Median LIHTC Rental Rates @ 60% AMHI

State

Surveyed

Units 1-Br. 2-Br. 3-Br.

N. Carolina 10,923 $538 $627 $736

S. Carolina 5,287 $550 $650 $740

Virginia 16,021 $721 $833 $940

W. Virginia 1,492 $506 $585 $668

Region 33,723 $605 $688 $777

Note: Median Rents for LIHTC projects are generally 15% to 20% below market-rate levels

North Carolina – Residential Building Permits

Source: SOCDS Building Permits Database at http://socds.huduser.org/permits/index.html

North Carolina Building Permits (2005-2014)

5,000

15,000

25,000

35,000

45,000

55,000

65,000

75,000

85,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Year

Tot

al P

erm

its

Single-Family Multi-Family

Housing Unit Building Permits for North Carolina:

Permits 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Multifamily Permits 12,935 17,307 15,438 15,570 8,412 7,842 7,941 18,747 15,974 14,860

Single-Family Permits 84,975 82,710 70,339 39,082 25,388 26,047 24,863 29,945 35,316 35,051

Total Units 97,910100,01

7 85,777 54,652 33,800 33,889 32,804 48,692 51,290 49,911

North Carolina – Renter Household Growth

Projected Low-Income ($10k-$40k) Renter Household Growth by County – 2014 to 2019

North Carolina - LIHTC Vacancy Rates

City Surveyed Units Vacant Vacancy

Asheville 785 0 0.0%

Charlotte 2,921 9 0.3%

Concord 694 3 0.4%

Durham 1,436 69 4.8%

Fayetteville 800 6 0.7%

Greensboro 650 6 0.9%

Greenville 624 31 5.0%

High Point 418 5 1.2%

Kannapolis 220 9 4.1%

Raleigh 1,421 6 0.4%

Wilmington 954 61 5.4%

North Carolina – Median Rents @ 60% AMHI

City

Surveyed

Units 1-Br. 2-Br. 3-Br.

Asheville 785 $484 $546 $659

Charlotte 2,921 $589 $720 $800

Concord 694 $575 $685 $780

Durham 1,436 $671 $790 $911

Fayetteville 800 $461 $515 $582

Greensboro 650 $566 $653 $722

Greenville 624 $470 $546 $595

High Point 418 $506 $615 $725

Kannapolis 220 $560 $685 $758

Raleigh 1,421 $650 $675 $830

Wilmington 954 $534 $617 $707

N. Carolina – 2012-2014 LIHTC Allocations

N. Carolina – 2015 LIHTC Applications

South Carolina – Residential Building Permits

Source: SOCDS Building Permits Database at http://socds.huduser.org/permits/index.html

Housing Unit Building Permits for South Carolina:

Permits 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Multifamily Permits 10,816 9,101 7,814 6,140 2,088 1,333 2,690 3,420 4,478 6,073

Single-Family Permits 43,349 41,680 32,817 19,782 13,445 12,693 12,852 15,290 20,250 21,470

Total Units 54,165 50,781 40,631 25,922 15,533 14,026 15,542 18,710 24,728 27,543

South Carolina Building Permits (2005-2014)

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Year

Tot

al P

erm

its

Single-Family Multi-Family

Projected Low-Income ($10k-$40k) Renter Household Growth by County – 2014-2019

South Carolina – Renter Household Growth

City

Surveyed

Units Vacant Vacancy

Aiken 154 0 0.0%

Charleston 385 0 0.0%

Columbia 1,493 37 2.5%

Greenville 971 9 0.9%

Hartsville 112 0 0.0%

N. Charleston 826 7 0.8%

Rock Hill 531 1 0.2%

Spartanburg 446 5 1.1%

Sumter 369 0 0.0%

South Carolina - LIHTC Vacancy Rates

City

Surveyed

Units 1-Br. 2-Br. 3-Br.

Aiken 154 $400 $485 $565

Charleston 385 $607 $717 $740

Columbia 1,493 $633 $730 $830

Greenville 971 $550 $650 $750

Hartsville 112 $520 $580 $543

N. Charleston 826 $565 $720 $828

Rock Hill 531 $615 $670 $753

Spartanburg 446 $540 $616 $690

Sumter 369 $461 $542 $575

South Carolina – Median Rents @ 60% AMHI

S. Carolina – 2012-2014 LIHTC Allocations

S. Carolina – 2015 LIHTC Applications

Virginia – Residential Building Permits

Source: SOCDS Building Permits Database at http://socds.huduser.org/permits/index.html

Virginia Building Permits (2005-2014)

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Year

Tot

al P

erm

its

Single-Family Multi-Family

Housing Unit Building Permits for Virginia:

Permits 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Multifamily Permits 11,559 8,727 7,418 7,638 5,184 4,843 7,672 9,782 11,049 9,848

Single-Family Permits 49,959 38,977 30,944 19,939 16,268 16,149 15,625 17,496 20,893 18,832

Total Units 61,518 47,704 38,362 27,577 21,452 20,992 23,297 27,278 31,942 28,680

Virginia – Renter Household Growth

Projected Low-Income ($10k-$40k) Renter Household Growth by County – 2014-2019

CitySurveyed

UnitsVacant Vacancy

Alexandria 1,664 3 0.2%

Chesapeake 2,395 48 2.0%

Hampton 1,089 37 3.4%

Newport News 669 32 4.8%

Norfolk 1,811 54 3.0%

Petersburg 774 26 3.4%

Portsmouth 1,474 3 0.2%

Richmond 3,753 127 3.4%

Suffolk 488 0 0.0%

Virginia Beach 1,904 17 0.9%

Virginia - LIHTC Vacancy Rates

Virginia – Median Rents @ 60% AMHI

CitySurveyed

Units1-Br. 2-Br. 3-Br.

Alexandria 1,664 $1,103 $1,340 $1,564

Chesapeake 2,395 $698 $827 $903

Hampton 1,089 $746 $889 $1,005

Newport News 669 $721 $849 $978

Norfolk 1,811 $714 $830 $930

Petersburg 774 $668 $680 $730

Portsmouth 1,474 $714 $793 $913

Richmond 3,753 $625 $795 $910

Suffolk 488 $714 $756 $835

Virginia Beach 1,904 $750 $890 $1,005

Virginia – 2012-2014 LIHTC Allocations

Virginia – 2015 LIHTC Applications

West Virginia – Residential Building Permits

Source: SOCDS Building Permits Database at http://socds.huduser.org/permits/index.html

Housing Unit Building Permits for West Virginia:

Permits 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Multifamily Permits 657 485 877 921 269 599 632 955 658 774

Single-Family Permits 5,483 5,160 3,918 2,560 1,966 1,796 1,588 1,763 1,966 1,933

Total Units 6,140 5,645 4,795 3,481 2,235 2,395 2,220 2,718 2,624 2,707

West Virginia Building Permits (2005-2014)

0500

1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,0005,500

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Year

Tot

al P

erm

its

Single-Family Multi-Family

Projected Low-Income ($10k-$40k) Renter Household Growth by County – 2014-2019

West Virginia – Renter Household Growth

West Virginia - LIHTC Vacancy Rates

CitySurveyed

UnitsVacant Vacancy

Beckley 138 0 0.0%

Charleston 103 0 0.0%

Fairmont 78 0 0.0%

Martinsburg 554 8 1.4%

Morgantown 169 0 0.0%

Parkersburg 141 0 0.0%

Weirton 82 0 0.0%

Wheeling 227 25 11.0%*

*Includes project in initial lease-up, all other properties full

West Virginia – Median Rents @ 60% AMHI

CitySurveyed

Units1-Br. 2-Br. 3-Br.

Beckley 138 $470 $570 $570

Charleston 103 $480 $555 $630

Fairmont 78 -- $618 $677

Martinsburg 554 $597 $745 $875

Morgantown 169 $545 $638 $720

Parkersburg 141 $507 $570 $645

Weirton 82 $473 $513 $595

Wheeling 227 $475 $533 $650

West Virginia – 2012-2014 LIHTC Allocations

Designation Unknown

Contact

Patrick BowenBowen National Research

Phone: 614-833-9300E-mail: patrickb@bowennational.com

Web: www.bowennational.com