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RENTAL HOUSING MARKET TRENDS
When you can’t control the wind, adjust your sails.
Providers of Real Estate Research and Market Feasibility Studies
MultifamilySingle-familyCondominiumsSeniorStudentOffice SpaceRetail SpaceLight IndustrialSelf-Storage Facilities
National Real Estate Research FirmNCAHMA, NH&RA, NCSHA and NAHRO MembersOn-line Apartment Database (50,000)State-of-the-art Demographics and Mapping
12.9%Tucson11.7%Phoenix10.7%Las Vegas9.4%Boise9.2%Denver8.7%Sacramento7.5%Seattle6.9%Oakland6.5%Orange County6.3%Portland6.1%Salt Lake City5.7%Los Angeles5.4%San Jose5.3%San Francisco5.1%San Diego
VacancyCity West Region Vacancy Rates
Sources: Marcus & Millichap, US Census, State Finance Agencies, & VWB Research
11.9%Houston10.7%San Antonio10.7%Austin9.5%Oklahoma City8.8%Dallas
VacancyCity
South Region Vacancy Rates
Sources: Marcus & Millichap, US Census, State Finance Agencies, & VWB Research
9.1%St. Louis8.6%Columbus8.5%Indianapolis8.4%Kansas City8.1%Detroit7.4%Cincinnati7.2%Omaha7.1%Cleveland7.0%Chicago5.1%Milwaukee4.9%Minneapolis4.6%Madison
VacancyCity
Midwest Region Vacancy Rates
Sources: Marcus & Millichap, US Census, State Finance Agencies, & VWB Research
6.8%Boston6.2%Philadelphia4.8%Newark3.7%Manhattan2.7%Brooklyn
Vacancy RateCity
Northeast Region Vacancy Rates
Sources: Marcus & Millichap, US Census, State Finance Agencies, & VWB Research
10.3%Orlando
9.9%Raleigh-Durham
9.7%Tampa
9.1%Newport News
8.5%W. Palm Bch
8.2%Ft. Lauderdale
7.7%Chattanooga
7.2%Louisville
6.9%Norfolk
6.6%Baltimore
6.6%Washington
6.2%Miami4.0%Suffolk
VacancyCity
13.7%Charleston13.7%Savannah13.6%Charlotte13.1%Jacksonville12.6%
Winston-Salem
12.1%Memphis12.0%Spartanburg12.0%Columbia11.9%Gainesville11.7%Atlanta11.2%Tallahassee11.1%Richmond
VacancyCity
Southeast Region Vacancy Rates
Sources: Marcus & Millichap, US Census, State Finance Agencies, & VWB Research
8.20%CONNECTICUT13.70%ILLINOIS7.90%CALIFORNIA14.00%GEORGIA7.50%ALASKA14.80%TENNESSEE7.30%NEBRASKA15.30%S. CAROLINA7.30%WASHINGTON15.30%RHODE ISLAND6.50%WYOMING15.30%FLORIDA6.20%VERMONT15.60%KENTUCKY6.00%OREGON16.60%ARIZONA5.70%NEW YORK17.50%MISSISSIPPI4.40%MASSACHUSETTES18.60%ALABAMA
Vacancy RatesVacancy RatesLowest ApartmentHighest Apartment
Source: US Census Bureau
Vacancy Rates by State (end of 2009)
National Rental Housing TrendsMultifamily apartment vacancy rates appear to have peaked in most marketsLIHTC rentals are generally outperforming market-rate housingThe flow of renters to home ownership has endedThe for-sale bubble burst and corresponding foreclosure crises has led to “bundling”Two-bedroom or larger with 1 bath have higher vacancies
Renters are generally moving down in price and qualityDownward pressure has been greatest on Class A market-rate rentsOverall rent concessions continue, but to a lesser degreeRents will likely take another 2+ years to recover to early 2008 levels
National Rental Housing Trends
Initial LIHTC lease-up rates of 6-8 UPM are more commonInitial market-rate lease-up rates have fallen to 12-18 UPMStabilized occupancy rates are projected around 90% to 93%
National Rental Housing Trends
Small & Midsize towns (< 250k people)College towns Communities with diverse economies with progressive manufacturing bases and skilled service centersCommunities benefitting from BRACUrban areas with barriers to market
Successful Markets
Areas that rely heavily on a single industry/job sector Suburban areas with substantial market-rate rental productCommunities hurt from BRACUrban markets with “tired” and functionally obsolete product
Challenged Markets
Senior CottagesSingle-family Rent to Own Homes(both in-fill and subdivisions)
Conversions (Mills, Schools, Warehouses, etc.)Preservation Projects
Successful Project Types
Senior Cottages
JE Wall Victoria Manor(Riverside, CA)
American House Hazel Park (Hazel Park, MI)
Single-Family Rentals
Valley Homes(Gloverville, SC)
Dayton Homes I-III(Dayton, OH)
Conversion Projects
Alpha Mill Apartments(Charlotte, NC)
The Apartments at American Tobacco
(Durham, NC)
Conversion Projects
Olde School Commons(Garner, NC)
Cleveland School Apts.(Clayton, NC)
Preservation Projects
Woodlawn Apartments
(Aberdeen, NC)
Worley Terrace(Columbus, OH)
April 2010 Unemployment Rates
18-Month Employment Change**Change in number of jobs
18-Month Unemployment Rate Change
Household Growth (Number)
2000-2009
Household Growth (Percent)
2000-2009
Household Growth Age 65+ (Number)
2000-2009
Household Growth Age 65+ (Percent)
2000-2009
INSERT N. CAROLINA LOW-INCOME ($10K-$40K) HOUSEHOLD GROWTH (PERCENT) MAP
Low-income Household Growth (Number)
2009-2014
$0 to $35,000
Low-income Household Growth (Percent)$0 to $35,000
2009-2014
Low-income Household Growth Age 55+ (Number)
$0 to $35,000
2009-2014
Low-income Household Growth Age 55+ (Percent)
$0 to $35,000
2009-2014
North Carolina Foreclosures
Durham 800
Alamance 676Forsyth 1,948
Union 629Mecklenburg 6,722
Gaston 834
Guilford 2,869
Wake 3,179Johnston 452
New Hanover 535
High LowSource: RealtyTrac
9.2%Salisbury9.2%Greenville 8.0%High Pointe6.7%Thomasville6.7%Knightdale6.7%Garner6.6%Shelby6.3%Hickory6.0%Cary5.7%Burlington5.5%Wilson4.7%Wake Forest4.7%Pittsboro4.3%Sanford4.0%Hendersonville3.2%Fayetteville1.6%
Pinehurst/Aberdeen
1.6%Kinston0.9%Rockingham
VacancyCity
13.6%Charlotte12.8%Asheville12.6%Winston-Salem12.1%Wilmington12.0%Morganton12.0%Concord/Kannapolis9.9%Raleigh-Durham9.4%Lexington9.4%Gastonia
VacancyCity
N. Carolina Vacancy Rates
Sources: Carolina Real Data, Marcus & Millichap, NCHFA, & VWB Research
2010 NCHFA FULL APPLICATIONS
Sources: NCHFA & VWB Research
APRIL 2010 UNEMPLOYMENT RATES
18-month Employment Change18-Month Employment Change**Change in number of jobs
18-Month Unemployment Rate Change
HOUSEHOLD GROWTH (NUMBER)
2000-2009
HOUSEHOLD GROWTH (PERCENT)
2000-2009
HOUSEHOLD GROWTH AGE 65+ (NUMBER)
2000-2009
HH growth age 65+ percentHOUSEHOLD GROWTH AGE 65+ (PERCENT)
2000-2009
LOW-INCOME HOUSEHOLD GROWTH (NUMBER)
2009-2014
$0 to $35,000
Low-income growth percentLOW-INCOME HOUSEHOLD GROWTH (PERCENT)
2009-2014
$0 to $35,000
LOW-INCOME HOUSEHOLD GROWTH AGE 55+ (NUMBER)
2009-2014
$0 to $35,000
LOW-INCOME HOUSEHOLD GROWTH AGE 55+ (PERCENT)
2009-2014
$0 to $35,000
South Carolina Foreclosures
High LowSource: RealtyTrac
York 965
Beaufort 1,657Charleston 2,743
Berkeley 989Dorchester 1,070
Horry 1,638
Lexington 1,340
Greenville 2,577
Spartanburg 1,081
Richland 2,076
Pickens 621
13.7%Charleston12.0%Spartanburg12.0%Columbia10.1%Myrtle Beach9.0%Beaufort8.1%Conway6.2%Bluffton5.4%Greenville5.2%Florence5.0%Rock Hill4.6%Easley4.4%Sumter4.2%Orangeburg1.8%Aiken
VacancyCity S. CAROLINA VACANCY RATES
Sources: Carolina Real Data, Marcus & Millichap, SC Housing & VWB Research
2010 SC HOUSING APPLICATIONS
Sources: SC Housing & VWB Research
APRIL 2010 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
18-MONTH EMPLOYMENT CHANGE**Change in number of jobs
18-MONTH UNEMPLOYMENT RATE CHANGE
HOUSEHOLD GROWTH (NUMBER)2000-2009
HOUSEHOLD GROWTH (PERCENT)
2000-2009
HOUSEHOLD GROWTH AGE 65+ (NUMBER)
2000-2009
HOUSEHOLD GROWTH AGE 65+ (PERCENT)
2000-2009
LOW-INCOME HOUSEHOLD GROWTH (NUMBER)
$0 to $35,0002009-2014
LOW-INCOME HOUSEHOLD GROWTH (PERCENT)
$0 to $35,0002009-2014
LOW-INCOME HOUSEHOLD GROWTH AGE 55+ (NUMBER)
$0 to $35,0002009-2014
LOW-INCOME HOUSEHOLD GROWTH AGE 55+ (PERCENT)
$0 to $35,0002009-2014
Virginia Foreclosures
High Low
Chesterfield 1,210
Spotsylvania 1,148
Prince William 4,637
Loudon 2,404
Norfolk 1,207
Chesapeake 1,149Source: RealtyTrac
Frederick 608
11.1%Richmond 10.2%Charlottesville10.0%Hampton9.9%Lexington9.1%Newport News8.5%Waynesboro7.9%Williamsburg7.0%Roanoke6.9%Norfolk6.2%Lynchburg6.1%Virginia Beach6.0%Petersburg5.4%Alexandria4.9%Chesapeake4.1%Fairfax4.0%Suffolk
VacancyCity VIRGINIA VACANCY RATES
Sources: Carolina Real Data, Marcus & Millichap, VHDA & VWB Research
2010 VHDA APPLICATIONS
Sources: VHDA & VWB Research
On-line Research Resources
National Research Websites http://www.hud.gov/apps/section8/index.cfm
http://rdmfhrentals.sc.egov.usda.gov/RDMFHRentals/select_state.jsp?home=YEShttp://lihtc.huduser.org/
http://www.epodunk.com/http://www.realmarketing.com/
www.realtytrac.comwww.marcusmillichap.com
www.reis.comwww.apartmentguide.com
www.forrent.comwww.rent.com
www.apartments.comwww.apartmentfinder.com
http://www.hud.gov/offices/cpd/about/conplan/local/index.cfmwww.gosection8.comwww.walkscore.com
www.vwbresearch.com
North Carolina Specificwww.nchfa.com
http://www.nchousingsearch.org/www.aptindex.comwww.nchousing.org
South Carolina Specificwww.schousing.com
www.schousingsearch.comwww.affordablehousingsc.org
Virginia Resourceswww.vhda.com
www.virginiahousingsearch.comwww.vhda.com/BusinessPartners/GovandNon-Profits/
Pages/Virginia-Housing-Directory.aspx
On-line Research Resources
VWB Research’s Apartment Database
VWB Research’s Capture Rate Calculator
Contact InformationPatrick BowenVWB Research
869 W. Goodale Blvd.Columbus, Ohio 43212
(614) [email protected]
www.vwbresearch.com