sondaje politice2

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Conducting professional surveys


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INTRODUCTION: What are surveys?

ntr-o campanie electoral e foarte important rapiditatea cu care luam decizii.n acest sens, informa ia detaliat, ob inut n timp real, este vital. Considerm sondajul statistic ca fiind principala metod de observare utilizatn sfera politic i sociala.

Opinion surveys are tools increasingly used by businesses, governments, non-governmental organizations and political parties to measure or determine wat largesegments or groups of people tin! about particular issues. "or tose involved in

politics, polls are most useful for identifying several tings. #olitical leaders or parties

use surveysto elp determine or measure$

o wat issues in a society are most important %li!e unemployment, ealt care,education, etc.&'

o wic messengers %li!e particular parties, leaders, etc.& ave most credibility onparticular issues'

o wic audiences are most prepared to listen to tose messengers %li!e yout,women voters, regional populations, etc.&'

o wic messages, language and arguments resonate most wit tose audiences'and

o wic modes of communication reac tose audiences most effectively(

)n oter words, polls can elp political parties target teir message to teir audience inorder to ma*imize te potential for support.

Caution!Surveys are not intended to determine or dictate a partys policy. That is theresponsibility of the party members. Instead, polls are intended to help a partymeasure what people think about certain issues, to decide which of its policies aremost readily understood and accepted by the public, and to determine which requiremore work and explanation.

You must remember that pollin is work! "any people think pollin is easy# write afew questions and ask a few people to respond to them. $owever, pollin that isaccurate must be thorouh, meticulous and contain all the follow%on steps outlined

in this primer. &ven then, one must be careful in interpretin the poll results and


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even more careful in decidin on the course of action to pursue based on thoseresults.ORGANIZAREA ONDAE"ORTATITICE

+ondajele statistice se bazeaz pe concepte, metode i procedee clar definite i se aplic

unei fraciuni mai mari sau mai mici din populaie. Calitatea rezultatelor depinde deformularea corect a problemei, de selectarea unitilor din eantion, de preciziaestimrii parametrilor de interes. fectuarea unui sondaj presupune un lan de lucrricomple*e sistematizate. tapele elaborrii unui sondaj sunt$

+tep/. +tabilirea obiectivelor sondajului+tep0. 1efinirea populaiei.+tep2. +tabilirea metodei de culegere a datelor+tep3. laborarea cestionarului+tep4. 5nceta pilot

+tep6. *tragerea eantionului+tep7. Culegerea i verificarea datelor+tep8. 5naliza statistic a datelor+tep9. laborarea strategiei.

TE# $:+tabilirea obiectivelor sondajului

#rima sarcin este formularea o%ie&tivelor son'a(ului. n general cei care comandsondajul vin doar cu o formulare vag a problemelor care i intereseaz i cu o imagineneclar asupra modului cum vor utiliza rezultatele obinute. n dialogul beneficiar-statistician, sociologului i revine rolul de a i ajuta pe acetia s stabileasc obiectivele.

5ceste probleme vor fi apoi analizate pentru a structura forma de prezentare a rezultatelori pentru a evalua resursele financiare i umane necesare.

ST&' (#Definirea populaiei

The first step in conducting a poll is to understand the demoraphicmakeup of thepopulation being surveyed. If we are to obtain a representative sampleof aparticular population, we need to know what that population looks like.Otherwise we have no way of knowing if the samplechosen is representative

or reflects the larger group/population.

ursele de date la care apelam pentru a cunoste populatia sunt!

Official censuses conducted by government. :enerally, censuses providereliable and detailed information necessary to better understand te structure orcomposition of a given population.

;ere no census data is available, or were tis data are not current %less tanfive years old&, oter sources of information must be identified. 1e obiceiapelm la sondaje efectuate in aceeasi populatie pe teme asemanatoare

Caution!


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n cazul n care n popula ia tint e*ist subgrupuri cu un ob iuni si comportament de vot diferit este esential s cunostem dimensiunea in populatie a acestui grup iamplasarea teritoriala %nationalitate, mineri&.


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ST&' *# +uestionnaire onstruction

Un %un &hestionar este a&ela &are /n'epline4te o%ie&tivele propuse 5step $6

#ai logici pentru a realiza un bun cestionar$

$* #lanificarea a ceea ce se dorete a fi msurat %pornind de la obiective&.0* "ormularea ntrebrilor astfel nc=t s faciliteze obinerea informaiilor.)* +tabilirea lungimii scestionarului . %>uestionnaires sould not be too lengty.

5fter fifteen minutes of ?uestioning, respondents begin to get bored or an*ious tobe on teir way. @is will lead to situations were ?uestions will be given littletougt or left unanswered. )t is always better to ave a sorter, concise,?uestionnaire.&

2* Aotr=rea asupra ordinii i formulrii ntrebrilor i a aranjrii n pagin acestionarului

3* @estarea cestionarului, utiliz=nd un eantion de volum mic, pentru a evitaomisiunile i ambiguitatea

7* Corectarea problemelor %i o nou pretestare, dac este necesar&

+BCC+)B5@D


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TE# 3: An&heta pilot

5nceta pilot este o repetiie general a sondajului propriu-zis ce permite testarea n lumea

real a cestionarelor i a tenicilor de administrare a sondajului.

)nformaii ce pot fi furnizate de anceta pilot sunt$

$* Celtuielile i durata probabil a ancetei.

0* #roporia anticipat de non-rspunsuri. umrul posibil de refuzuri sau denecontactri poate fi estimat i se poate compara eficacitatea diferitelor ci de reducere aacestora. 5stfel se poate opta pentru o anumit metod de culegere a datelor, se pote*clude unele ntrebri sau se poate modifica ordinea lor.

)* n cazul n care nu se cunosc suficiente informaii necesare caracterizriipopulaiei analizate n vederea stabilirii planului de sondaj ce se poate aplica i calculriivolumului eantionului n urma organizrii ancetei pilot se pot opiune informaii despregradul de variabilitate al populaiei i structura acesteia.

2* Cel mai important rol al ancetei pilot l reprezint pretestarea &hestionarului*1up ce a fost elaborat cestionarul trebuie aplicat unui eantion selectat aleator de volumredus de persoane din populaia supus cercetrii. 5stfel se pot detecta deficiene alecestionarului ce nu au fost observate. #ot fi identificate probleme n zona introductiv, nalegerea tipurilor de ntrebri, n formularea i succesiunea ntrebrilor.

ST&' -# ampling and ample i&e

n aceast etap se stabilete planul de sondaj, procedeul de selectie, mrimeaeantionului, estimatorii i precizia lor teoretic.

#e baza informatiilor obtinute la +tep0 I1efinirea popula iei I se va alege planul desondaj i procedeul de selectie.

DE &ine 'epin'e 8,ri8ea esantionului?

$* #ro%a%ilitatea &u &are 9aranta8 reultatele* Dire&t propor ional* 5in 9eneralnu se lu&reaa &u pro%a%ilita i su% ;


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/. Depin'e volu8ul e antionului 'e volu8ul populatiei? 1oar in cazulpopula iilor de dimensiuni mici. )n cazul sondajelor politice, cand ne intereseazaopinia maselor, este important ca e antionul s fie suficient de mare.

0. )n cazul n care ne intereseaza in mod deosebit o subpopulatie %e* somerii,pensionarii, tinerii, etc& este important sa avem grij ca subesantionul

corespuzator sa fie suficient de mare pentru o putea garanta probabilisticrezultatele&

#ro&e'ee 'e e antionare

$* Ran'o8 a8plin9*In a survey, random sampling is of critical importance. 'cestprocedeu acord% fiec%rei unit%i din populaie o probabilitate nenul% #i cunoscut%de a face parte din e#antion. (e&ultatele obinute pe aceast% ba&% pot fi apreciate $ntermeni probabilistici.

0* onrandom Samplin.In acest ca& includerea unit%ilor populaiei $n e#antion sereali&ea&% $n mod con#tient de c%tre o persoan% cu e)perien%. Oric*t de buncunosc%tor ar fi acesta, alegerea diri+at% a unit%ilor considerate repre&entative neva $ndep%rta de caracterul cu adev%rat aleator. a% de e#antionarea aleatoare,cea diri+at% pre&int% de&avanta+ul c% nu e)ist% nici o metod% de a stabili gradul

preci&iei unei estimaii f%cute pe ba&a ei. -u toate acestea $n anumite ca&uri estepreferat% e#antionarea diri+at%, $n special datorita faptului ca este mult mai estemult mai ieftin% dec*t orice selecie aleatoare. el mai cunoscut procedeu estee antionarea pe cote.

)* +i>t sa8plin9* #rocedeele de eantionare mi*t combin principiile eantionrii

dirijate cu cele ale eantionrii aleatoare profit=nd de avantajele fiecrei metode iminimiz=ndu-se dezavantajele.

TE# : Culegerea i verificarea datelor

;en all ?uestionnaires ave been completed, te information gatered isentered into a computer database.:olurile din baza de date reprezint nonrspunsurile pariale.n momentul n care lipsesc valorile unui individ pentru toate ntrebrile din cestionar ncadrmsituaia la nonrspuns total. 1ac numrul de non-rspunsuri este mare rezultatele sondajului vor fiafectate. n consecint, nainte de prelucrarea statistic este necesar sa pregatim baza utiliz=nd8eto'e 'e tratare a nonraspunsurilor.

npornire

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intrebareanr.

Chest

npornire

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Nonrspuns

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Nonrspuns

total


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ST&' /# Statistical 0nalysis

5 number of software pac!ages e*ist tat allow te researcer to produce tables

containing te coded information. 5 basic interpretation$

@reuen&ies* +ummary results for individual ?uestions Cross Ta%ulation* +orting of individuals into appropriate categories of two

variables at te same time Graphi&s

ST&' -# Strateic 0nalysis

"ollowing te statistical analysis is te strategic analysis$ determining wat te answersto te ?uestionnaires mean and say, or interpreting te data. )t is te job of te client tota!e te information and decide on its strategic use. )t may be tat te survey resultssow women are more responsive to te clientKs party tan to oter parties, or tatwomen are more responsive to te clientKs party tan men. @e client must ta!e tatinformation and oter data from te study and consider its use, ideally, to implement a

program of action.

)n te end, te survey sould give te client an idea of te important and meaningfulissues, te language and arguments around tat issue tat ma!e people JrespondK, and

te target groups to wom tey may tal! on tose issues using tat language.+trategic analysis can be a very subjective e*ercise. @wo different parties wit te same

polling data may interpret it differently, and may even more easily apply or act on itdifferently. Bsing te e*ample above of women wo favor one political party overanoter. One party may decide to try to increase its popularity among women, wileanoter may decide tat it will try to address te concerns of te population in general,and not address women specifically.

+trategic analysis must still be conducted in ligt of a partyKs policies and goals. )f apoll sows tat most people want to lower ta*es and yet improve public services, a

party must develop a message or platform tat can respond to te apparentcontradictions, peraps by educating te public during te election campaign byfocusing on one issue or te oter. 5 party can cose to adopt a perception or view eld

by te public tat is revealed in a poll, or it can cose to attempt to cange te publicKsview by modifying its public message.

+trategic analysis is te crucial pase of interpreting data or survey results to betterunderstand Jte answers.K @is draws on more tan simply te results of a survey. @estrategic analysis of data gatered in a survey re?uires in-dept !nowledge of te

political and social conte*t witin wic te party is wor!ing. @is ac?uired political

acumen is te necessary ingredient for ma!ing te most of polling information as itallows for te conte*tualising of results. @is !nowledge also permits te development


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of strategies tat ta!e into account te uni?ue conditions witin any one country. @efact tat a survey finds women more responsive to one party over anoter is useful.

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