Vorträge/Twenty-five-years-after(1).

Some sociological considerations and

speculations about the effects and

consequences of Communism in Central East

Europe

Max Haller

„Twenty-five-years-after. What has happened to the

Societies in Central and Southeast Europe“

Graz, September 18-20, 2014

Seven theses and a short look forward

1. The Central East European (CEE) countries have been affected quite

differently by Communism

2. The breakdown of the Communist systems in CEE was a revolution „from

below“

3. Nationalism and ethnicity have been and still are central topics of the

former Communist countries

4. The CEE countries are very heterogeneous. The success of their transition

to democracy and market societies is dependent on their past history as

well as present-day democratic and civic development

5. Equality and inequality are issues very important for people in CEE

6. Austria and the CEE countries are closely interconnected. Austria has

benefitted massively from the downfall of the Iron Curtain; Austria and the

CEE countries have been developing quite positively in recent times

7. Have the right lessons been drawn from Communism as an „experiment in

destratification“? The evaluation of the Chinese „third way“

8. Outlook: A plea for more scientific cooperation

2

1.The Central East European (CEE) countries have been affected quite

differently by Communism. The most advanced have been affected negatively,

the less developed have benefited more

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Table 1: Level of economic 1950 1990 2013

Development (GDP per capita, $)

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Strongly above average (8000+) (20000-25000) (40000+)

USA, Japan A, USA, Jap A, G, USA, Jap

Above average (3500-4500) (13000-16000) (20-39000)

A, G, CSFR G, Spain Por, Sp, Gr, Slov

Below average (2000-2500) (5000-6999) (15000-19000)

H, Pol, Spain Cz, Slov, Por Cz, Sk

(3000-4990) (10-15000)

H, Turkey H,Pl,Cro,Rus,Turk

Clearly below average (1600-1990) (1000-3000) (5000-9900)

Bulg, Port Sk, Pol, Bulg,Rom Serb, Bul,Rom,China

(1000-1500) (-990) (3000-4900)

Rom, Turk Alb, Russia Alb

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3

2. The breakdown of the Communist systems in CEE was a

„revolution from below“, enabled by a permissive new leader of

the USSR

- The early uprisings against the Communist system were clearly related to the

level of socio-economic and political development (see following Figure 1)

-European integration has been less decisive for the downbreak of Communism

than the resolute anti-Communism of single political leaders in the West-

- Visit of Western politicians in Moscow 1985: „We will not interfere into your

matters“ (Haller 2009)

--- M. Thatcher as an important model for progressive Soviet leaders, particularly

M. Gorbachev (Lane 1997)

- Uprisings in Poland (1980-90) were supported by millions, 1989 in the German

Democratic Republic, Czechoslovakia and Hungary by hundreds

of thousands of people

4

5

Figure 1:The relation between level of economic development and the

frequency of political riots in west and east Europe in postwar time

(1948-1967)

Source: Max Haller/ Franz Höllinger (1995), “Zentren und Peripherien in Europa”, Historical Social Research, vol. 20, p. 50.

3. Nation and ethnicity have been and still are very important issues in the

CEE region. But the breakdown of the multi-national Communist

states cannot be explained by the „boiler theory“

(Dampfkesseltheorie) but only by democratic elite theory (Eva

Etzioni-Halevy 1993)

- The dissolution and war in Yugoslavia was the result of a continuous

undermining of „socialist democracy“ and federalism by Slobodan Milosevic

(If Gorbachev had been successor of Tito, Yugoslavia might still exist)

- The dissolution of Czechoslovakia was the main result of deliberate

actions by Slovak leader Vladimir Meciar; there was no popular majority for

it

- The by and large peaceful dissolution of the USSR was possible because of

new permissive leaders and elites

- The full recognition and integration of ethnic minorities and an elimination of

their discrimination (e.g. Russians in Baltic states, Roma‘s in many countries)

is a very important issue (as the case of the Ukraine shows). Its solution will

depend on the development of well-established democratic and welfare-state

institutions.

- Socio-economic development and peace in Europe will also depend on an

adequate integration of the post-Soviet states and Russia with the EU (the

„Three Europe‘s“)

4. The East European post-Communist countries are very

heterogeneous. The transition from Communism to Capitalism is no

simple linear process (as proposed by neo-liberal transition theory):

Neither Communism nor Capitalism are monolithic systems, many

actors, institutions and traditions besides of the state play a

significant role

7

The success of the transition to democracy and well-functioning market societies in

the different CEE countries was and is dependent on:

(a) the quality of democratic development since 1989

(b) the prevention of the emergence of deep social splits and

pervasive inequality. Equality is a central concern of the

citizens in all CEE countries

The present-day civic-democratic (and economic) level of development in CEE

clearly reflects historical legacies

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Table 2: The level of perceived corruption in Europe (2013)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Denmark, Sweden 91, 89

Switzerland 85

Germany 78

USA, France 73, 71

Austria 69 Estonia 68

Cyprus, Portugal 63,62

Spain 59 Poland 60

Lithuania, Slovenia 57

Hungary 54

Croatia, Czech Republic 48

Slovakia 47

Italy 43 Romania 43

Serbia 42

Bulgaria 41

Greece 40 China 40

Belarus 29

Russia 28

Ukraine 25

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

-

8

5. Socio-economic equality and inequality are

important issues for people in CEE

-Realization of equality was a central aim of

Communism

- Equality is still considered as a central topic in the

post-Communist CEE countries

- Equality is considered as very important also in

Austria - in spite, or in connection with its „conservative

welfare state“ (Esping-Andersen)?

9

Figure 2: Latent classes of perceptions and attitudes concerning

inequality (Egalitarians/ Meritocrats / Anti-egalitarians)

Source: Haller/ Mach/ Zwicky 1995

10

11

Figure 2: The development of economic inequality (GINI coefficients) in China,

the USSR/Russia and Czechoslovakia/ Czech Republic (ca. 1950-2009) (Source Solt 2009; Haller 2014)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1950-59 1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99 2000-09

USSR/Russia

China

CSSR/Czech R.

Table 3: Changes in economic inequality in East Europe, 1950-2010

(GINI-indices; Solt 2009)

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ca. 1950-65 ca. 1990 2010

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CSSR 18,4

Czech Rep. 20,4 25,5

Slovakia 16,8 23,1

Hungary 25,8 26,8 26,0

Yugoslavia 32,2 29,3

Croatia 23,2 27,5

Slovenia 18,6 24,1

Serbia 35,6 33,7

Bulgaria 25,8 22,7 35,7

Romania 21,3 20,8 32,6

USSR 24,6 25,3

Russian Federation 24,5 45,2

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

12

6. Austria is closely inter-connected with the CEE countries. It has also

benefited stronlgy from the re-integration of CEE.

Austria, Germany and the more advanced CEE countries have been

developing quite positively in recent times due to their „conservative“

(Esping-Andersen) welfare state institutions and practices

- A new survey in Austria: A dramatic misinterpretation by the population? (Figure 4)

------ European countries which have benefitted

------ Economic sectors in Austria which have benefitted

- A (more or less) systematic list of positive and negative factors

connected with the opening of the Iron Curtain for Austria

- Austria, Germany, Czech R. and Slovakia have been able to delimit the increase of

inequality

- a significant increase in the Scandinavian welfare states

- a strong increase in Bulgaria and the Baltic states

Tables:

---- Development of inequality in OECD-countries 1950 – 2010 (Table

---- Social Justice in the European Union, 2013 (Table 4)

13

14

15

Figure 3:

To whom

served the fall

of the Iron

Curtain?

The view of

Austrians

August (2014)

Source:

Der Standard

(Vienna),

6./7.9.2014,p.3))

Aspects in which Austria was affected by the downfall of the Iron

Curtain and the re-integration of Central East Europe (CEE) – a

tentative overview

Positive impacts:

- Massive investments and profits of Austrian banks in CEE

- Massive and profitable investments of Austrian industrial (and agrarian)

enterprises in CEE

- Cheap nursing staff from CEE in Austria

- Cheap service workers in Austrian tourism

- New consumers and tourists from CEE

- A second „period of promoterism“ (Gründerzeit) for Vienna which will grow

to 2 million inhabitants by 2030

- General boost of economic growth

Negative impacts:

- Increase of crime, particularly in Eastern parts of Austria

- Delayed growth of incomes in specific sectors

16

A new rank order of equal and unequal

countries in Europe (Istvan Toth 2013)

-Inequality increased significantly in the Scandinavian welfare

states; Sweden is no more the most equal country in

Europe

- Massive increase of inequality in all post-Soviet countries

and Russia

- Significant increase also in Poland (result of „shock

therapy“?)

- The most equal countries in Europe are not the most

developed post-Communist CEE countries

17

Table 4: Development of inequality in OECD countries, 1950 – 2010 (Source: Istvan G. Toth 2013)

18

GINI coefficient 1980 – 1984 1996 – 2000 2006 – 2010

.35 +

Estonia, Romania,

Portugal

United States

Latvia, Lithuania,

Romania

Portugal, United Kingdom

United States

.30 - .35

Greece, Spain

United States

Bulgaria, Hungary, Latvia,

Lithuania, Romania

Greece, Ireland, Italy

Spain, United Kingdom

Australia, Canada

Korea

Bulgaria, Poland, Estonia,

Greece, Ireland

Italy, Spain

Australia, Canada

Korea

-25 - .30

Denmark, France,

Germany (West), Italy,

Japan, United

Kingdom

Australia, Canada

Poland

Austria, Belgium, France,

Germany

Netherlands, Sweden,

Denmark, Luxembourg

Japan

Hungary

Austria, Belgium,

Denmark, Luxembourg,

Netherlands, Sweden,

Finland

France, Germany

Korea

- .25

Austria, Netherlands,

Sweden

Bulgaria, Czech Republic,

Estonia, Finland,

Hungary, Latvia,

Lithuania, Slovakia

Czech Republic, Finland,

Germany (East), Slovakia,

Slovenia

Czech Republic, Slovakia,

Slovenia

Germany (East)

19

Table 5: An index of social justice in the European Union (August 2014)

(Source: Bertelsmann Foundation; report in Der Standard, 15.9.2014, p.10)

8. Concluding remarks: A plea for more scientific cooperation

between sociologists in Austria and its CEE neighour countries

Present situation

- Advantage of Austrian sociology: It is a member of one of the largest sociological communities

(German speaking area); most communication and cooperation occurs with this community

- Sociologists in CEE: probably most communication and exchanges with English speaking

sociological world

Returns from sociological cooperation in CEE

- More knowledge about neighbour societies and the mutual relations (e.g. migration)

- Large and variegated sets of data (qualitative and quantitative) available for carrying out

theoretically informed and historically-empirically grounded international comparisons

- Easy communication and cooperation (small distances)

Potential forms of cooperation

-Common congresses (like the Sociology Congresses of German speaking sociologists)

- Common research projects

- Common publications (Collections, Journals…)

- Cooperation in university teaching (Courses, degrees, teachers…)

Example: Jount degree in Cultural Sociology, Univ. of Zadar, Graz, Brno, Trento 20

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