Somalia Conflict Analysis Conflict-Sensitive Assistance May 18, 2006

Somalia Conflict Analysis

Conflict-Sensitive Assistance

May 18, 2006

• Increase understanding of conflict sources and dynamics in Somalia:

Inform design of interventions

Enable effective implementation

Enable “do no harm” and potential conflict prevention

Purpose of Study


• Consider potential impact of all strategies and interventions on the conflict environment

avoid contributing to escalation

if possible contribute to de-escalation

• Sometimes trade-off between technical solutions and conflict impact

Conflict Sensitivity


• Bank-led exercise with multi-donor

support (UNDP, SIDA, DFID) • Partnerships with local NGOs from three

regions of Somalia – Somaliland, Puntland and South-Central Somalia

• Advisory group of donors and organizations active on Somalia

• External reviewers



1. Desk study using Conflict Analysis

Framework (CAF) variables adapted to Somali context

2. Analysis of preliminary findings and determination of key issues in each region for fieldwork

3. Fieldwork by teams in each region using different qualitative techniques

4. Regional reports and synthesis report

5. Use of findings for policy/program development



• Armed conflicts in Somalia usually take place along

clan lines, but clan identity is not cause of conflict

• Clan identities shaped by leaders to pursue control of resources and power

• When manipulated, clan identities can create and exacerbate divisions

• Clan groups can serve as destructive or constructive forces, e.g. by moderating traditional conflicts

How can we best provide material and financial aid in this environment?

Clan Identities: findings


Make sure aid does not fuel clan-group competition or

divisions

Support cross-clan activities and institutions

Use aid to help bridge divided groups

Consider role of clan leaders

Consider effects of material and financial aid and benefits on clan dynamics

Clan Identities: pointers


• Struggle for control of the state – i.e. access to

political power and economic resources - has been a continuing source of conflict

• Previous experiences have made Somalis suspicious of government

How can state-building be supported in a way that minimizes chances of conflict?

State and Governance: findings


Be prepared for political struggle around state-

building

Support clan-neutral governance functions

Learn from and build on institutions that work (e.g. non-state actors)

Promote institutions that are inclusive (clans, sub-clans, ethnicity, socioeconomic characteristics)

State and Governance: pointers


• Livestock ban hurt pastoral dominated economy

• Remittances are vital lifeline

• Private sector activity created dynamic sectors

• Qat (khat) consumption and trade

• Control of commercial arteries

• Profit-driven diaspora promotes cross-clan business partnerships

What would be conflict-sensitive economic priorities?

Economic Development: findings


Don’t create an aid dependent Somalia – in

the past increased state fragility and conflict

Consider effects of large-scale projects and high-value investments on lineage-based division – small may be better

Consider ways to build nonpartisan government control of revenue sources

Build on the strengths of local communities and mobilize Somalia’s human resources

Economic Development: pointers


Support economic activities that unite not

divide – sub-sectors have different characteristics

Prioritize the economic backbone of society, but consider ways to strengthen economic diversification

Help develop systems for fair natural resource management

Support employment among young men, and reintegrate militiamen into mainstream economic activities

Economic Development: pointers


Monitor indicators of change – escalation/de-escalation of conflict

Assess potential impact of aid interventions on the conflict situation

Conflict Monitoring


Documents

Somalia Conflict Analysis Conflict-Sensitive Assistance May 18, 2006