Solutions to a hazardous world

Date: 20 Apr 2023 AS Global Challenges Unit 1

Solutions to a hazardous world


Spec

Solutions to a more hazardous world, at all scales need to focus on the underlying issues of risk and vulnerability.

Developing an awareness of, for example, local flood risk, regional poverty and international strategies to tackle a world at risk.


Capacity Building for Capacity Building for Climate Change: A Risk Climate Change: A Risk Management ApproachManagement Approach

Milind KandlikarMilind KandlikarInstitute for Resources, Environment and SustainabilityInstitute for Resources, Environment and Sustainability

University of British ColumbiaUniversity of British Columbia

Ambuj SagarAmbuj SagarJohn F. Kennedy School of GovernmentJohn F. Kennedy School of Government

Harvard UniversityHarvard University


Risks from Climate : Why Risks from Climate : Why should we care? should we care?

Impacts will be felt in all sectors, esp. on natural resources (Water, Agriculture, Impacts will be felt in all sectors, esp. on natural resources (Water, Agriculture, Forests and Coastal zones)Forests and Coastal zones)

The magnitude of impacts is likely to be The magnitude of impacts is likely to be substantialsubstantial, and in some cases, , and in some cases, catastrophiccatastrophic::Climate variability (especially extreme events) will be the

primary driver. 2002 Monsoon failures in India may result in ~1% GDP loss.Recurring floods in Bangladesh (~5% of GDP).Hurricane Mitch (‘99) “set Honduras economic development back 20

years” (~75% of GDP).

Adaptation will involve coping with climate Adaptation will involve coping with climate shiftsshifts and and variabilityvariability in the in the context of several factors thatcontext of several factors that

influence influence vulnerabilityvulnerability..


Magnitude of Weather Impacts

Increasing Vulnerability from Weather Risks

Source: Benito Muller, Presentation at SB16


Climate Vulnerability and Development: Climate Vulnerability and Development: Common Common concernsconcerns

Per-Capita Weather Impacts

Average Mortality per Disaster

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

LHD MHD HHD

Human Development

Dea

ths

per

Eve

nt

Series1

Source: Benito Muller, Presentation at SB16 Source: World Disasters Report 2001


Risks from Climate Variability to the EconomyRisks from Climate Variability to the Economy

Business and increased uncertainty do not mix Business and increased uncertainty do not mix well.well.

Increased climate variability will impact long-Increased climate variability will impact long-run growth since resources will be needed run growth since resources will be needed to hedge against climate related economic to hedge against climate related economic uncertainty.uncertainty.

Impacts:Impacts:Agriculture and Natural ResourcesAgriculture and Natural Resources

Financial sectors (Insurance and Banking)Financial sectors (Insurance and Banking)

Knock-on effect on other sectorsKnock-on effect on other sectors

Total Economic Loss

Average loss per Decade

Insured Loss

Mean Insured Loss per Decade

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

Global Weather Related Losses in US $ Billion


Risks from Climate Change: A Historical Perspective

“The picture’s pretty bleak, gentleman. The world’s climates are changing, the mammals are taking over and we all have a brain about the size of a walnut.”

The task is difficult but humans are more intelligent(and so, we hope, are our political leaders).

Source: Gary Larson


Many different factors can make you more or less vulnerable toclimate variability

Source: Stockholm Environmental Institute


Coping with Climate Variability: A Risk Perspective

S c ie nc e a nd A sse ssm e nt B e fo r e the fa c t:P r e p a r e d ne ss

A fte r the fa c t:R e lie f

C lim a te V a r ia b ilityC o p ing S tr a te g ie s

Science of Climate

Useful knowledge

Broad Sector Studies

Decision making under uncertainty

Climate only one input!

Design of local strategies

Incorporation intopractice

Training & policy shift

Disaster Relief Management

Current Barriers

New Technologies andPolitical ‘will’


Science and Assessments: From Global to Local and Back

Scientific knowledgeScientific knowledge: : data, models, ‘facts’data, models, ‘facts’

Usable knowledge:Usable knowledge:influences “on the ground” decisionsinfluences “on the ground” decisionsprediction, economic valueprediction, economic value

DifficultyDifficulty::Uncertainty increases with decreasing scaleUncertainty increases with decreasing scale

Capacity building challengeCapacity building challenge::

learning to extract useful local info. in the learning to extract useful local info. in the face of face of uncertaintyuncertainty

Not merely an academic exercise, Not merely an academic exercise, continuous interaction continuous interaction with the “real” world. with the “real” world.

Un

cert

ain

ty

Pre

dict

abil

ity

Scale

GlobalLocal Regional


Being prepared for climate change : If adaptation is the answer, what is the question?

Climate is one input among manyClimate is one input among many:: goal is to reduce impact on economy and society goal is to reduce impact on economy and society (human development)(human development)

Multiple stressorsMultiple stressors Increased climate variabilityIncreased climate variability

Change in local vulnerability over time due to other Change in local vulnerability over time due to other factorsfactors

Changes in operating “regimes”Changes in operating “regimes”

Multiple StakeholdersMultiple StakeholdersAdded complexity and coordinationAdded complexity and coordination

Recognition that stakes varyRecognition that stakes vary

The poorest take the biggest hitThe poorest take the biggest hit

Climate

Other Stressors

Policy &Politics


Capacity Building (I): Knowledge Generation and Integration

Knowledge GenerationKnowledge GenerationKnowledge about the climatic system Knowledge about the climatic system (e.g., regional models)

Ability toAbility to convert “raw” scientific data into useful predictive information convert “raw” scientific data into useful predictive information (e.g., probability of rainfall failure)

Knowledge IntegrationKnowledge Integration

Ability to integrate predictive climate information with other sector information Ability to integrate predictive climate information with other sector information and local knowledge. and local knowledge. Easier said than done!

Ability to integrate disparate existing capacities.Ability to integrate disparate existing capacities. Find the experts.

Scientists and analysts to learn region specific needs, and develop/ modify Scientists and analysts to learn region specific needs, and develop/ modify assessments in response. assessments in response. Two-way street.

Public (Bureaucrats, NGOs) and private sector needs to be intimately involved Public (Bureaucrats, NGOs) and private sector needs to be intimately involved so facilitate feedback to analysts. so facilitate feedback to analysts.


Capacity Building (II): Preparedness and Response

Whose capacity?Whose capacity?The entire “system”:The entire “system”:Knowledge generators (Scientists) (Scientists) Mediators (NGOs, bureaucrats, markets) (NGOs, bureaucrats, markets) End users (people, banks, private sector) (people, banks, private sector)Infrastructure (road, rail, telecom)(road, rail, telecom)

What does it require?What does it require?Credible and Appropriate KnowledgeCredible and Appropriate Knowledge

Institutional adjustmentInstitutional adjustment

Financial considerationsFinancial considerations

Linking knowledge to actionLinking knowledge to action..

Top-down and bottom up flowsTop-down and bottom up flows


Capacity Building: Three Capacity Building: Three Core ChallengesCore Challenges

Building Effective Knowledge Generation Building Effective Knowledge Generation SystemsSystems

A system that moves information from top-down to A system that moves information from top-down to bottom up and vice-versa.bottom up and vice-versa.

Is credible with usersIs credible with users

That links with other efforts.That links with other efforts.

Meeting Financial ConsiderationsMeeting Financial ConsiderationsWho pays? Who calls the shots?Who pays? Who calls the shots?

How is the money spent?How is the money spent?

Enabling Institutional TransformationsEnabling Institutional TransformationsBridging existing gaps within and among institutions.Bridging existing gaps within and among institutions.

Making existing institutions more porousMaking existing institutions more porous

Building new institutionsBuilding new institutions

CapacityCapacity

Knowledge systems

InstitutionalTransformation

Financing


Some Lessons from Disaster Mitigation Efforts (Red Cross)

No coherent risk reduction “community”:No coherent risk reduction “community”:

PProfessionals trying to mitigate impacts are fragmented along institutional boundaries.

Risk reductionRisk reduction cannot be viewed as a technical problem with technical cannot be viewed as a technical problem with technical solutions.solutions. It is also a matter of enacting and enforcing laws, building and maintaining accountable institutions, and producing an environment of mutual trust between government and the population.

Community-based approaches lead to more accurate definition of problems and solutions, because they draw on local expertise in living with disasters. Communities at risk must trust those delivering the warnings.

Vulnerability and capacity assessment (VCA) Can provide participants with greater awareness of their own potentialities. “Instead of seeing themselves as victims, people tell themselves that they can influence what happens.” So VCA is a capacity-building tool as well as a diagnostic measure..




The Hyogo Framework for Action P 85 Philip Allan


Global Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction

It was convened on the basis of guidance contained in the resolution of the General Assembly on the ISDR that calls for the adoption by governments of the Hyogo Framework and that recognizes the Global Platform as a successor mechanism to the Inter-Agency Task Force for Disaster Reduction.

National practitioners and other stakeholders have repeatedly expressed the desire to have a mechanism through which they can exchange their experiences in disaster risk reduction and access information on how other countries addressed particular challenges in the implementation of the Hyogo Framework.

The Global Platform has been set up to serve this need, and it is expected to become the main global forum for all parties involved in disaster risk reduction, namely governments, United Nations agencies, international financial institutions, regional bodies, civil society, the private sector, and the scientific and academic communities. The Global Platform provides advocacy for effective action to reduce disaster risks, expands the political space devoted to the issue, and contributes to the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals particularly in respect to poverty reduction and environmental sustainability.

The UN/ISDR is the focal point in the UN System to promote links and synergies between, and the coordination of, disaster reduction activities in the socio-economic, humanitarian and development fields, as well as to support policy integration. It serves as an international information clearinghouse on disaster reduction, developing awareness campaigns and producing articles, journals, and other publications and promotional materials related to disaster reduction. The UN/ISDR headquarters is based in Geneva. It conducts outreach programmes through its regional units in Panama for the Americas, Nairobi for Africa, Cairo for Western Asia & North Africa.


The United Nations General Assembly designated the 1990’s as the

International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR).

Its basic objective was to decrease the loss of life, property destruction and social and economic disruption caused by natural disasters, such as earthquakes, tsunamis, floods, landslides ,volcanic eruptions, droughts, locust infestations, and other disasters of natural origin.

While the IDNDR followed a strictly techno-centric and scientific approach in the beginning, the Yokohama conference in 1994 put socio-economic aspects as component of effectivedisaster prevention into perspective.

It was recognised that social factors, such as cultural tradition, religious values, economic standing, and trust in political accountability are essential in the determination of societal vulnerability.

In order to reduce societal vulnerability, and therewith decrease the consequences of natural disasters, these factors need to be addressed. The ability to address socio-economic factors requires knowledge and understanding of local conditions, which can – in most cases - only be provided by local actors.

A global strategy aiming at reducing the impacts of natural hazards therefore must include the development of national and sub-national mechanisms for disaster risk reduction. Within this context the IDNDR called on the UN-member states to establish National Platforms which would facilitate the adjustment of general disaster risk reduction objectives to national/local conditions, implement the agreed policies and expand the understanding and perception of the importance of disaster risk reduction on national levels.

However, while some countries successfully established national networks many did not. In practice, there remains a pressing need to revitalize and strengthen these national structures.


International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR)

When it drew to an end, the IDNDR was replaced and continued by the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR). The ISDR aims to pursue the initiatives and cooperation agreed on during the IDNDR, and developing new mechanisms as well as pushing for further commitments from policy-makers. The overriding goal is to reduce human, social, economic and environmental losses due to natural hazards (and related technological and environmental disasters). The building of disaster resilient communities is a main objective. The ISDR promotes the following four objectives as tools towards reaching disaster reduction for all:

•Increase public awareness to understand risk, vulnerability and disaster reduction globally

•Obtain commitment from public authorities to implement disaster reduction policies and actions

•Stimulate interdisciplinary and inter-sectoral partnerships, including the expansion of risk reduction networks

•Improve scientific knowledge about disaster reduction

Date: 20 Apr 2023 AS Global Challenges Unit 1 ISDR MissionCatalyze, facilitate and mobilize the commitment and resources of national, regional and international stakeholders of the ISDR System to build the resilience of nations and communities to disasters through the implementation of the Hyogo Framework for Action.

Recognizing that natural hazards can threaten any one of us, the ISDR builds on partnerships and takes a global approach to disaster reduction, seeking to involve every individual and every community towards the goals of reducing the loss of lives, the socio-economic setbacks and the environmental damages caused by natural hazards. In order to achieve these goals, the ISDR promotes four objectives as tools towards reaching disaster reduction for all:

•Increase public awareness to understand risk, vulnerability and disaster reduction globally The more people, regional organizations, governments, non-governmental organizations, United Nations entities, representatives of civil society and others know about risk, vulnerability and how to manage the impacts of natural hazards, the more disaster reduction measures will be implemented in all sectors of society. Prevention begins with information.

•Obtain commitment from public authorities to implement disaster reduction policies and actions The more decision-makers at all levels commit themselves to disaster reduction policies and actions, the sooner communities vulnerable to natural disasters will benefit from applied disaster reduction policies and actions. This requires, in part, a grassroots approach whereby communities at risk are fully informed and participate in risk management initiatives.

•Stimulate interdisciplinary and intersectoral partnerships, including the expansion of risk reduction networks The more entities active in disaster reduction share information on their research and practices, the more useful the global body of knowledge and experience will progress. By sharing a common purpose and through collaborative efforts we can ensure a world that is more resilient to the impact of natural hazards.

•Improve scientific knowledge about disaster reduction The more we know about the causes and consequences of natural hazards and related technological and environmental disasters on societies, the more we are able to be better prepared to reduce risks. Bringing the scientific community and policy makers together allows them to contribute to and complement each other's work.


Decision Making Exercise

Investigate the hazards that face Bangladesh in the future and decide what can be done to help them in the future?

Flooding in Bangladesh

P60-61 Oxford






Capacity Building

Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan

Temperatures are rising on Earth, which is heating up the debate over Global Warming and the Climate Change issues.

To combat global warming, there is need for greater focus on Climate Risk Management (CRM). CRM involves two broader areas, Mitigation and Adaptation.

While mitigation is a must to stabilize climate system and requires global action (by all nations, states/countries), adaptation is needed to cop with the situation which are already exerting pressure on the life & livelihood of the billions around the globe & shall continue in the decades to come.

Adaptation to global climate change needs to be recognized as life saving for millions. Bangladesh is the worst victim of CC impacts and can’t wait but has to act immediately with all out effort.

Capacity building for climate change refers to the development or strengthening of personal skills, expertise, and relevant institutions and organizations to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and/or to reduce vulnerability to climate-related impacts. Capacity building often involves the participation of multiple stakeholders, including host country governments, nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), research institutions, local communities, and international organizations.


Bangladesh Department of the Environmenthttp://www.climatechangecell-bd.org/cc-database.html

Bangladesh Case Study

Bangladesh is globally considered as one of the most vulnerable countries. An overwhelming majority (82.8 percent; World Bank 2006) of its 150 million people live on income averaging less than two dollars a day.

Observed past and present climate trends and variability indicates an increasing trend of about 1 degree C in May and 0.5 degree C in November has been observed during the fourteen year period 1985-1998.

Annual mean rainfall exhibits increasing trends. Observed changes in extreme climatic events revealed from new evidences on recent trends show increasing tendency in the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events over the last century and into the 21st century.

Impacts of these observed changes have been significant on agriculture, particularly on food production and security. Another area critically affected is hydrology and water resources, characterized by water shortages. Our coastal zone is most threatened. Saltwater from the Bay of Bengal has penetrated 100 km or more inland along tributary channels during dry season. Evidences of the impacts of climate related factors on mangroves are the severe destruction of mangroves due to reduction of freshwater flows and salt water intrusion.

Wetlands have been observed to suffer from precipitation decline and droughts in the delta region. The north is affected by floods and riverbank erosion, north and northwestern parts affected by droughts, while the northeast is ravaged by flash floods annually.

In recent years, heat waves and cold spells have claimed hundreds of life. Vector borne diseases particularly dengue has become a health hazard claiming hundreds of lives every year.

Date: 20 Apr 2023 AS Global Challenges Unit 1 Bangladesh Objectives

Development means wellbeing of society, economy and environment. Climate Change, variability and extreme events challenge development gains and future goals. Therefore development must be made climate resilient to assure our wellbeing.

The Climate Change Cell has established a mechanism that facilitates management of long term climate risks and uncertainties as an integral part of national development planning. The Cell also facilitates strengthening the capacity of the professionals, practitioners, policy makers to reduce unacceptable risks and improve preparedness for climate change impacts. The specific objectives of the Climate Change Cell are:

•Establishing an integrated approach to climate change risk management at national and local levels;

•Building the capacity of the Government to coordinate & mainstream climate change issues in development activities;

•Strengthen existing knowledge & information accessibility on impact prediction & adaptation to climate change;

•Awareness-raising, advocacy & coordination to promote adaptation to climate change & risk reduction in development activities.

Date: 20 Apr 2023 AS Global Challenges Unit 1 Grass root awareness in Bangladesh

Extreme weather and events like cyclone, flood, storm surges will intensify, become more frequent and unpredictable. Changes in the temperature and rainfall pattern will be significant, with grave implications on our natural resource base, putting agriculture and related livelihood at risk. Droughts and flash foods, untimely hailstorm, mists will increase and take place more frequently. In addition, changes that take place gradually over years and sometimes decades, such as salinity intrusion, desertification and sea level rise will compound our risks and national development goals, particularly poverty reduction.

As a nation we must face up to this challenge. For Bangladesh, climate change is everyone’s concern. Therefore we must all understand the challenge and act now. Everyone has a stake and therefore a role to play in their respective capacity. Adequate and appropriate understanding of climate challenges begins with accurate information, knowledge and communication.

We need to help people understand that climate change is a serious challenge, but one that we can do something about. We want to communicate a positive vision of what we are collectively trying to achieve. Our goal is that working together this generation will prepare and address climate change challenges.

“Most people in Bangladesh think that climate change is confusing; they can’t see how it relates to them; think won’t affect them personally; is a problem for the future, not now; and can’t be affected by their individual actions, because the problem is so big.”

Documents

Solutions to a hazardous world