Solar• Industry Overview

– Major technologies (3-4)– Manufacturing process & challenges: quality & reliability (3)

– Solar Value Chain (1)– Installations – residential and commercial (1-2)– Future System building and building integration (2-3)

• Industry Funding (3-5) -- follow the money!– Competitive landscape– Industry Growth

• Careers– Business Opportunities– Key players– Career paths (sample job description)– Salaries– Training Opportunities / Education seminars– What you might need

Alternative Energy Industry Overview

Solar PV Technologies

Solar Efficiency

Technological ComparisonTechnology Advantage Disadvantage

c-Si High efficiencyAbundance of material

High cost to manufacture High cost of materials

a-Si Low costAbundant and safe material

Low efficiencyDegrades with temperature increase

CIGS High efficiencyLow costBandgap tunability

Scarcity of IndiumCd is toxicReliability has not been tested

CdTe Low cost Te is scarceCd is toxic

Concentrating solar

High efficiency Low cost

Takes up a lot of roomTransmission of energy over long distances

Solar Cell Construct-Silicon Based

Monocrystalline Si Cell

Amorphous Si Cell

Amorphous Si & Microcrystalline Cell

Silicon Solar Cell Manufacturing Flow

Thin Film Cell Construct• Cadmium Telluride/Cadmium Sulfide Cell• Copper Indium Selenide • Copper Indium Gallium Selenide

Thin Film Solar Cell Manufacturing Process

Resulting Structure

TCO contact

Process Step Technology Used

TCO Deposition, Front and Scribing

Active Layer Deposition

Activation

Scribing and TCO Deposition, Back

Interconnect and Encapsulation

Sputtering and Laser

Co-evaporation or Sputtering or Ink Jet Printing or Electro

deposition

Chemical Bath or PVD (Phys Vapor Dep)

Mechanical and Sputtering

Lamination

Annealing & Sulfurization or RTA

CdS Deposition

Substrate

Substrate

Substrate

Substrate

Substrate

Substrate

Active layer

Sulfurization

CdS layer

Interconnect

TF Silicon CdTe CISConversion efficiency 6-8% 8-11% <8-13%Variants a-Si CdTe Cu/In/S

a-Si/a-Si Cu/In/Sea-Si/uc-Si Cu/In/Ga/Sea/Si/a-SiGe/a-SiGe

Selected manufacturers Unisolar (US) First Solar (USA) Daishowa Shell (Japan)Kaneka (Japan) Avancis (Germany)Mitsubishi (Japan) Wuerth (Germany)Sharp (Japan) Sulfurcell (Germany)Schott (Germany) Miasole (USA)Sanyo (Japan) Global Solar (USA)Sionar (Taiwan) Nanosolar (USA)Evergreen Solar/ESLR (US) Solyndra (USA)HelioSphera (Greece)Flexcell (Switzweland)CSG Solar (Germany)

Process PE-CVD Vapor transport Various

Selected Thin Film Landscape

a-Si/Thin-SiUni-Solar –MIApplied Materials –CAPower Films –IAEnergy PV –NJMV Systems –COXsunX –CAOptiSolar –CASignet Solar –CANano PV –NJMWOE Solar –OHProto Flex –CONew Solar Ventures –NMInnovalight –CANanogram –CASoltaix –CASierra Solar Power –CAEvergreen Solar/ESLR –MASencera –NC AOS SolarAmpulse

CdTeFirst Solar –OHPrimestar Solar –COAVA Solar –COSolar Fields –OHCanrom –NYAscentool –CANuvo Solar Energy –COZia Watt Solar –TXSolexant –CAXunlight 26 Solar –OHSunovia –FLNewCve –GABloo Solar –CA

CIGSGlobal Solar –AZMiasole –CAEnergy PV –NJAscent Solar –COISET –CAITN/ES –CODaystar –NYNanosolar –CAHeliovolt –TXSolo Power –CASolyndra –CARESI –NJLight Solar –NVAmpulse –TNDow Chemicals –MIStion –CA

Thin Film PV Companies in US

• Poly-Si Feedstock 10%• Ingot/Wafer Production 10%• Cell Production 25%• Module Assembly 25%• System Integration, Distribution and Installation 30%

Wafer Based PV Value Chain

• Glass Production 20%• Cell Production (CdTe, CIS) 20%• Module Assembly 25%• System Integration, Distribution and Installation 35%

Thin Film Based PV Value Chain

• Wacker -Germany• Hemlock –USA• LDK - China• Dow Corning - USA• MEMC -USA• REC Silicon -Norway• Tokuyama -Japan• Mitsubishi Materials -Japan• Sumitomo Titanium -Japan

Major Polysilicon Manufacturers

Si Wafer Start Up

• 1366 Technologies -MA • 21-Century Silicon - TX• 6N Silicon - ON• Advent Solar• AE Polysilicon• Blue Square Energy - MD • CaliSolar - CA• Confluence Solar - MO • ET Solar• Gamma Solar

• NorSun • Peak Sun Silicon -OR• RSI Silicon - PA•SBM Solar - CA• Senergen Devices - CA• Silicon Genesis - CA• Solar Notion • Solaicx - CA• Solar Cell Repower - Norway • SpectraWatt - OR• Wriota

Worldwide Solar Module Demand

16

1,6242,499

3,579

6,571

9,420

11,685

13,066

122

325

465

896

1,408

1,902

2,306

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Polysilicon Thin Film

Worldwide solar module demand (MW)Worldwide solar module demand (MW) Crystalline solar is projected to remain over 80% of the market for the foreseeable future

Long-term reliability & track record

Current polysilicon prices are adding significantly to production costs

Innovation and supply will bring the price of polysilicon down

Currently $1.161 per watt on average

Long-term $0.512 per watt We believe the reduction of over 2x

makes crystalline price competitive and expands the market

The key factor dictating success in this market is COST LOW COST WINS

Source: Wall Street research1 Based on 2008 estimated cost of polysilicon of $110/kg and 10.5 grams/watt 2 Based on 2012 estimated cost of polysilicon of $60/kg and 8.5 grams/watt

1,747

2,824

4,044

7,467

10,828

13,587

15,372

CAGR: 4

3.7%

No. Name Technology Country Production (MW)

1 Q-Cells Si Germany 3892 Sharp Si Japan 3633 Suntech Si China 3274 Kyocera Si Japan 2075 First Solar CdTe USA 2076 Motech Si Taiwan 1967 Sanyo Si Japan 1658 SunPower Si USA 1509 Baoding Si China 14310 SolarWorld Si Germany 140

Top 10 PV Companies (2007-2008)

Where are we going with the technology?

Highway signs

The Race to $1/ Watt-Grid Parity

Cell Technology Market Share

Case Study

• Residential Solar installation• 2000 square foot house• 3.5 KW system

Residential Solar System (Pros)

• Reduce cost of electrical power• Opportunity in remodeling, upgrade home value• Doing “my thing” in improving environment

EXAMPLE: 2000 sq ft home: approximately 7600 pound of CO2 averted per year

• Lower energy cost for the future, especially in retirement

• Tax incentives, putting tax money to good use• Possible leasing versus purchasing

Residential Solar System (Cons)• Mobile society, not stay around long enough to reap the benefits• Initial outlay of investment, SLOW ROI, 7 to 8 years to break even

point• Installation, disruption, possible additional structural needs• Solar panel failure, inverter failure• Having to periodically clean PV panels, breakage and hazard• Other problems, roof leaks, wind damage, etc.• Opportunity cost:

– Bathroom remodel plus new heater and insulation (instant ROI if sell home and WITH energy savings

– Add a bedroom plus bathroom (226 sq. ft. at $160 per) AND rent it out for $600/month net: break even ROI: 5 years.

• NEW TECHNOLOGIES: reduced cost of system, longer life, better output, balance DC to AC inverter integrated systems

Choosing a Contractor • If need a new roof: roofer/solar contractor may have an advantage

as it is VERY CLEAR who is responsible if there are roof leaks.• Get 4 quotes, make sure you are looking at the latest offerings• ISSUES: Poor quality invertors, contractor may not install what they

said they would install, undersized DC cables, and may have extra costs to connect to home AC panel/grid thus your ROI is less.

• Make sure quotes use same AC rate increase plan 5% to 9% seen in quotes, in this economy will the rate increase slow down?

• ReGrid Power, NextEnergy, PetersonDeanRoofing, too many to list

Considerations for Purchasing a System

• System size• Installation location• Warranty• Initial cost, payment outlay• Maintenance Costs• Independent system or connected to grid• PPA: if you sell your home, can you afford to get out

of the agreement?• Investment alternatives:

What is real system performance?

• What is advertised performance?• How is performance defined?• How is performance measured?• Solar profile of installation site• Weather, dirt • Shadowing, daily profile• Electrical cable lengths• Efficiency versus temperature • Inverter

Calculation of ROI, Parameters • Demographics of Usage

– Peak power requirements-Are they to be satisfied?– Average power usage

• Cost of system• Tax incentives• Actual cost of system• System operational parameters

– Efficiency– Degradation

• Power generation• Power cost• Electrical bill per today’s pricing,

– Future inflation, – Future usage increase, decrease

• System generated power cost in long term• Savings• Years to crossover point

Considerations for Long Term Operation

• System performance degradation– Solar panel efficiency– Weathering, dirt– Sunlight availability, shadowing,

• Cost of grid available power, inflation• New technology, upgrading of system

– Balancing of modules

How will new technology affect ROI?

• Implementation on current system– Power generation balancing– Anti-weathering coatings– Sunlight reflection onto panels– Solar tracking

• Electrical power storage– Addition of storage capability

Comparative Sample Calculation• Demographics

– Home with 2000 square feet• Partitioned into living quarters for one familyAnd 2 separate master bedrooms for single occupants• No air conditioning• Composite roof• Facing south west, plenty of sunlight, no shading• Plenty of roof space for solar panels

• Comparing Sharp, First Solar, BP Solar and Sunpower PV panel based installations • Simple calc, only used the expected AC savings, expected AC cost increases (at 2%

and 5% per year rate assumptions), panel degradation and net of tax rebate costs used.

• NOTE: Assumes CLEAN dust free sap free panels• CAUTION: Sales person my use 9% AC cost increases per year other inflation rate

items and not take into account panel output degradation to show 2 or 3X the savings.

• GOOD NEWS: up to 7600 pound of CO2 averted per year• These solar systems have 7 to 8 year to reach break even point and $28K to $45K

savings in 18 years (18 years is PPA life and may be the “half life” for the Silcon based panels.)

Comparative ROI Calculation

Panel Type, Supplier Sharp-PPA Sharp First Solar BP Solar SunPower

Model No. ND-198U1F ND-198U1F FS-276 BP175 SP2-210

Cell Technology Std Eff Silicon Std Eff Silicon Thin Film CdS/CdTe

Std Eff Silicon Hi Energy Mono Silicon

Area used on roofSquare Feet

246 246 402 221 214

System Rating CEC AC KWh

2.9 2.9 2.4 2.4 2.9

System Cost $4,194 and $107/mo $24,669 $20,439 $22,939 $28,148

Cost net Rebates $4,194 $14,103 $10,660 $13,566 $16,626

Panel DegradationIn years

80% in 25 yrs 80% in 25 yrs 90% at 10 years, 80% at 25 years

90% at 12 years, 80% at 25 years

80% in 25 years

Degradation used in calculation 0.005 per year 0.005 per year 0.008 per year 0.005 per year 0.005 per year

OTHER MONITORING,

Buy out $13,195 at 5 years, $3,564 at 18 years/end

MONITORING PREPAID RECYCLING, MONITORING

NONE, monitoring system not included

NONE, monitoring system not included

Ave AC Bill Monthly Savings $152 $152 $100 $120 $150

BREAK EVEN POINT 7 Years 7 Years 8 Years 8 Years 8 Years

If 5% AC cost increase per year, savings at year 18

$13,196 $44,576 $28,454 $34,947 $43,843

If 2% AC cost increase per year, savings at year 18

$10,863 $36,692 $24,140 $28,767 $36,089

What you might need

• Licenses• Certifications

– Engineering– Installation

Eff. (%) Module T.coef (%P/°C) Technology c/c-ratio19.3 SunPower 315 -0.38 FZ-Si, ‘point contact’ 78%17.4 Sanyo HIP-205BAE -0.30 CZ-Si, ‘HIT’ 70%15.1 BP7190 -0.5 CZ-Si, ‘PERL’ 61%14.2 Kyocera KC200GT Only for VOC MC-Si 67%14.2 SolarWorld SW 185 Only for VOC CZ-Si 67%13.4 SolarWorld SW 225 Only for VOC MC-Si 64%13.4 Suntech STP 260S -24V/b MC-Si 63%13.3 Sharp ND-216-U1 Not givenMC-Si 63%11.0 WürthSol. 11007/80 -0.36 CIGS 55%10.4 First Solar FS-275 -0.25 CdTe 63%8.5 Sharp NA-901-WP -0.24%/C a-Si/nc-Si 70%6.3 Mitsubishi H. MA100 T2 -0.2 a-Si (1-j) 64%6.3 Uni Solar PVL-136 (-0.21) a-Si (3-j) 52%6.3 Kaneka T-SC Not givena-Si (1-j) 64%

Web Survey of “Best” Commercial PV Modules (2007-2008)

Examples of Thin Film Cells

Q-Cell

Q-CellQ-Cell

Q-Cell

Q-Cell