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1 Seth Fischer Oasis Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation June 12, 2014 – Hong Kong Not for Distribution or Dissemination

Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation · Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation June 12, 2014 – Hong Kong ... CV volume 265,373 373,842

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Page 1: Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation · Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation June 12, 2014 – Hong Kong ... CV volume 265,373 373,842

1

Seth FischerOasis

Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation

June 12, 2014 – Hong Kong

Not for Distribution or Dissemination

Page 2: Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation · Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation June 12, 2014 – Hong Kong ... CV volume 265,373 373,842

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This presentation is for informational purposes only. Nothing in this document or anyinformation herein should be construed as an offer, invitation, marketing of services orproducts, advertisement, inducement, or representation of any kind, nor as investmentadvice or a recommendation to buy or sell any investment products or to make any type ofinvestment, or as an opinion on the merits or otherwise of any particular investment orinvestment strategy. Any examples of strategies or trade ideas are intended for illustrativepurposes only and are not indicative of the historical or future strategy or performance orthe chances of success of any particular strategy.

Page 3: Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation · Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation June 12, 2014 – Hong Kong ... CV volume 265,373 373,842

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What was the BEST TRADE of the financial crisis?

Page 4: Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation · Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation June 12, 2014 – Hong Kong ... CV volume 265,373 373,842

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Page 5: Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation · Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation June 12, 2014 – Hong Kong ... CV volume 265,373 373,842

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Page 6: Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation · Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation June 12, 2014 – Hong Kong ... CV volume 265,373 373,842

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Page 7: Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation · Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation June 12, 2014 – Hong Kong ... CV volume 265,373 373,842

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Page 8: Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation · Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation June 12, 2014 – Hong Kong ... CV volume 265,373 373,842

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Page 9: Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation · Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation June 12, 2014 – Hong Kong ... CV volume 265,373 373,842

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Jaguar Land RoverUSD MM FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014Wholesale volume 167,300 193,982 243,621 314,433 372,062 429,861% yoy growth 16% 26% 29% 18% 16%

Revenue 9,832 15,793 21,619 23,676 32,956% yoy growth 51% 37% 17% 23%

EBITDA (393) 589 2,403 3,243 3,509 5,768% margin 6% 15% 15% 15% 18%% yoy growth 282% 35% 15% 45%

Cumulative EBITDA 15,119Source: Company filings; Tata Motors has March fiscal year end

Page 10: Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation · Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation June 12, 2014 – Hong Kong ... CV volume 265,373 373,842

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Jaguar Land Rover InvestmentUSD MMInitial investment in 2008 2,500FY 2014 adjusted EBITDA 4,326Multiply by: Exit Multiple 4.5xTerminal value 19,467Add: Cash & Equivalents 5,880Less: Total Debt 3,417Exit equity value 21,931Cash-on-Cash Multiple 8.8xImplied IRR 44%Note: Adjusted EBITDA reflects adjustment for capitalized R&D expenses

Page 11: Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation · Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation June 12, 2014 – Hong Kong ... CV volume 265,373 373,842

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Jaguar Land Rover FY 2014 EBITDA: USD 5.8Bn

Page 12: Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation · Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation June 12, 2014 – Hong Kong ... CV volume 265,373 373,842

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Jaguar XJ

Page 13: Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation · Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation June 12, 2014 – Hong Kong ... CV volume 265,373 373,842

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Jaguar F-Type

Page 14: Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation · Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation June 12, 2014 – Hong Kong ... CV volume 265,373 373,842

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Range Rover Sport

Page 15: Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation · Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation June 12, 2014 – Hong Kong ... CV volume 265,373 373,842

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Range Rover won “Luxury Car of the Year”

Page 16: Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation · Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation June 12, 2014 – Hong Kong ... CV volume 265,373 373,842

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0%

4%

4%

17%

4%

3%

1%

16%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

FY 2013-2015E Revenue CAGR FY 2013-2015E EBITDA CAGR

Source: Bloomberg, Tata Motors has March fiscal year end

Page 17: Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation · Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation June 12, 2014 – Hong Kong ... CV volume 265,373 373,842

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Jaguar XE

Page 18: Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation · Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation June 12, 2014 – Hong Kong ... CV volume 265,373 373,842

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Land Rover Discovery Sport

Page 19: Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation · Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation June 12, 2014 – Hong Kong ... CV volume 265,373 373,842

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First wheel: Jaguar Land RoverSecond wheel: ChinaThird wheel: Fourth wheel:

Page 20: Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation · Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation June 12, 2014 – Hong Kong ... CV volume 265,373 373,842

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“You’re just printing cash in this market if you’re good”

Page 21: Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation · Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation June 12, 2014 – Hong Kong ... CV volume 265,373 373,842

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23%

20%

19%

17%

5%

17%

FY 2012

20%

21%

15%

24%

5%15%

FY 2014

Page 22: Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation · Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation June 12, 2014 – Hong Kong ... CV volume 265,373 373,842

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104,000

392,000

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

Cars Sold in China Last Fiscal Year

Page 23: Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation · Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation June 12, 2014 – Hong Kong ... CV volume 265,373 373,842

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120

450

0

100

200

300

400

500

Number of Dealerships in China

Page 24: Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation · Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation June 12, 2014 – Hong Kong ... CV volume 265,373 373,842

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April 2014 JLR reported 72% yoy growth in retail volume in China

Page 25: Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation · Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation June 12, 2014 – Hong Kong ... CV volume 265,373 373,842

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May 2014 JLR reported 53% yoy growth in retail volume in China

Page 26: Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation · Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation June 12, 2014 – Hong Kong ... CV volume 265,373 373,842

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Page 27: Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation · Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation June 12, 2014 – Hong Kong ... CV volume 265,373 373,842

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“Apart from booming car sales, multinational car companies also collect technology and brand royalties

from their China joint ventures, and make additional money from selling components to them.”

Page 28: Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation · Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation June 12, 2014 – Hong Kong ... CV volume 265,373 373,842

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Baidu Search Index (2011-2014 YTD)

Jaguar Land Rover

Page 29: Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation · Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation June 12, 2014 – Hong Kong ... CV volume 265,373 373,842

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80%

20%

6% 1.5%0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

US Brazil China India

Car Penetration Comparison

Page 30: Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation · Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation June 12, 2014 – Hong Kong ... CV volume 265,373 373,842

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Page 31: Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation · Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation June 12, 2014 – Hong Kong ... CV volume 265,373 373,842

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India BusinessUSD MM FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014CV volume 265,373 373,842 458,288 530,204 536,232 377,909% yoy growth 41% 23% 16% 1% -30%

PV volume 207,512 260,020 320,252 333,044 224,265 141,186% yoy growth 25% 23% 4% -33% -37%

Revenue 5,126 7,910 10,464 10,648 8,290 5,812% yoy growth 39% 32% 15% -18% -23%

EBITDA 350 929 1,068 865 395 (82)% margin 7% 12% 10% 8% 5% -1%% yoy growth 138% 15% -8% -52% NM

Source: Company filings; Tata Motors has March fiscal year end

Page 32: Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation · Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation June 12, 2014 – Hong Kong ... CV volume 265,373 373,842

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India GDP Slow Down

1,239 1,224 1,365

1,711 1,873 1,842

0

400

800

1,200

1,600

2,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

USD BN

Page 33: Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation · Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation June 12, 2014 – Hong Kong ... CV volume 265,373 373,842

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60% market share in the Indian CV segment

Page 34: Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation · Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation June 12, 2014 – Hong Kong ... CV volume 265,373 373,842

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Macro and Micro Fixes

Page 35: Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation · Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation June 12, 2014 – Hong Kong ... CV volume 265,373 373,842

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“Infrastructure development has to focus on highways, railways, port, power, etc. We will revive the National Highway Development Programme, which was so successfully started by the NDA government led by Atal Bihari Vajpayee. It is unfortunate that very good beginning made by the NDA government was not continued by the UPA in right earnest. We will bring back the focus by connecting the country through a network of good quality highways.”

- Prime Minister Narendra ModiMay 6, 2014

Page 36: Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation · Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation June 12, 2014 – Hong Kong ... CV volume 265,373 373,842

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Domestic CV growth to turn positive in 1Q FY 2015

Page 37: Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation · Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation June 12, 2014 – Hong Kong ... CV volume 265,373 373,842

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First wheel: Jaguar Land RoverSecond wheel: ChinaThird wheel: Domestic CV businessFourth wheel: Domestic PV business

Page 38: Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation · Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation June 12, 2014 – Hong Kong ... CV volume 265,373 373,842

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80%

20%

6% 1.5%0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

US Brazil China India

Car Penetration Comparison

Page 39: Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation · Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation June 12, 2014 – Hong Kong ... CV volume 265,373 373,842

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Page 40: Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation · Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation June 12, 2014 – Hong Kong ... CV volume 265,373 373,842

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“India is more urban than it admits. This has big implications, not least for business, which has much money to make if it can anticipate the needs – from

toiletries to CARS – of the new aspirant class.”

Page 41: Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation · Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation June 12, 2014 – Hong Kong ... CV volume 265,373 373,842

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Tata Nano: The People’s Car

Page 42: Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation · Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation June 12, 2014 – Hong Kong ... CV volume 265,373 373,842

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Smart City Cars

Page 43: Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation · Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation June 12, 2014 – Hong Kong ... CV volume 265,373 373,842

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Page 44: Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation · Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation June 12, 2014 – Hong Kong ... CV volume 265,373 373,842

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Public Comparables P / E EV / EBITDA(x) FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2014 FY 2015Ford Motor 12.7 9.2 4.3 3.4BMW 10.7 10.7 4.0 4.6Volkswagen 7.5 7.0 4.1 3.5Average 10.3 9.0 4.1 3.8

(x) FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2015 FY 2016Tata Motors Ordinary Shares 8.4 7.2 3.7 3.2% discount to global peers -18% -19% -10% -17%

Tata Motors DVRs 5.5 4.7 2.4 2.1% discount to global peers -47% -48% -42% -46%

Source: Bloomberg, Tata Motors has March fiscal year end

Page 45: Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation · Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation June 12, 2014 – Hong Kong ... CV volume 265,373 373,842

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DVRs are trading at a further 35% discount

Page 46: Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation · Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation June 12, 2014 – Hong Kong ... CV volume 265,373 373,842

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IND Bn FY 2015 FY 2016JLR Adjusted EBITDA 400 450Multiply by: Target Multiple 4.5x 4.5x

JLR Enterprise Value 1,800 2,025Domestic Business EBITDA 40 40Multiply by: Target Multiple 8.0x 8.0x

Domestic Business Enterprise Value 320 320Add: Value for Other Subs 80 80

Total Enterprise Value 2,200 2,425Add: Cash & Equivalents 317 317Less: Total Debt & Minority Interest 556 556

Total Equity Value 1,961 2,186Divide by: Total Shares Outstanding 3,190 3,190

Imply Value Per Share 615 685% to Current Ordinary Shares 38% 54%% to Current DVRs 67% 86%

Note: JLR Adjusted EBITDA reflects adjustment for capitalized R&D expenses

Page 47: Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation · Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation June 12, 2014 – Hong Kong ... CV volume 265,373 373,842

Thank you!

47

Page 48: Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation · Sohn Conference Hong Kong presented by Karen Leung Foundation June 12, 2014 – Hong Kong ... CV volume 265,373 373,842

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Disclaimer

Important Disclaimer: This presentation is for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing in this document or any information hereinshould be construed as an offer, invitation, marketing of services or products, advertisement, inducement, or representation of any kind, nor asinvestment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any investment products or to make any type of investment, or as an opinion on the merits orotherwise of any particular investment or investment strategy. Any examples of strategies or trade ideas are intended for illustrative purposes onlyand are not indicative of the historical or future strategy or performance or the chances of success of any particular strategy.

This is neither an offer to sell nor a solicitation of an offer to purchase any security. Such offer or solicitation may only be made pursuant to thecurrent offering memorandum of a fund that will be provided only to qualified offerees. Any investment decision with respect to a fund should bebased upon the information contained in the offering memorandum of such fund. Access to information for Oasis funds is limited to investors whoare qualified as an Accredited Investor and Qualified Eligible Person under the U.S. federal securities laws and as a “professional investor” withinthe meaning provided in the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Ordinance, and who are otherwise deemed to be sophisticated in financial mattersand deemed capable of evaluating the investment strategy and risks of the relevant Oasis fund(s).

No advertisement, invitation or document relating to any shares issued by any private fund managed or advised by Oasis may be in the possessionof any person for the purpose of issue (in each case whether in Hong Kong or elsewhere), which is directed at, or the contents of which are likely tobe accessed or read by, the public in Hong Kong (except if permitted to do so under the laws of Hong Kong) other than with respect to shareswhich are or are intended to be disposed of only to persons outside Hong Kong, or only to “professional investors” within the meaning of the HKSFO and any rules made pursuant to the HK SFO.

This presentation and any statements made in connection with the presentation are the presenter’s opinions, which have been based upon publiclyavailable facts, information, and analysis, and are not statements of fact. To the best of the presenter’s ability and belief, all information containedherein is accurate and reliable and does not omit to state material facts necessary to make the statements herein not misleading, and has beenobtained from public sources that the presenter believes to be accurate and reliable, and who are not insiders or “connected persons” of any publiccompany referenced herein. With respect to any public company referred to herein, there may be non-public information in the possession of thepublic companies or insiders thereof that has not been publicly disclosed by those companies. Therefore, all information contained herein ispresented “as is,” without warranty of any kind – whether express or implied, and the presenter makes no representations, express or implied, as tothe accuracy, timeliness, or completeness of any such information or with regard to the results to be obtained from its use. Any investmentinvolves substantial risks, including complete loss of capital. Any forecasts or estimates are for illustrative purpose only and should not be takenas limitations of the maximum possible loss or gain. Information contained in this presentation may include forward looking statements,expectations, and projections. You should assume these types of statements, expectations, and projections may turn out to be incorrect forreasons beyond the presenter’s control.