Small Sea Changes: Big Infrastructure Impacts

Small Sea Changes: Big Infrastructure Impacts

The Gulf Coast Study

Mike Savonis, US DOTMike Savonis, US DOTNovember 13, 2009November 13, 2009

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Gulf Coast Study Team

United States Department of Transportation (lead agency)

United States Geological Survey (supporting agency)

Cambridge Systematics, Inc.

Texas A&M University

University of New Orleans

Louisiana State University

Transportation Analysis Team• Cambridge Systematics, Inc.

• Texas Transportation Institute

• Wilbur Smith Associates

Federal Advisory CommitteeGulf Coast Study

Vicki ArroyoVicki Arroyo

Director of Policy AnalysisDirector of Policy Analysis

Pew Center on Global Pew Center on Global Climate ChangeClimate Change

Philip B. BedientPhilip B. Bedient

Professor of EngineeringProfessor of Engineering

Rice UniversityRice University

Leigh B. BoskeLeigh B. Boske

Associate Dean Associate Dean

Lyndon B. Johnson School Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairsof Public Affairs

University of TexasUniversity of Texas

Alan ClarkAlan Clark

Director of Transportation Director of Transportation PlanningPlanning

Houston-Galveston Area Houston-Galveston Area CouncilCouncil

Fred DenninFred Dennin

Regional Administrator, Regional Administrator, Region 3Region 3

Federal Railroad Federal Railroad AdministrationAdministration

Paul S. FischbeckPaul S. Fischbeck

Professor of Social and Professor of Social and Decision SciencesDecision Sciences

Carnegie Mellon UniversityCarnegie Mellon University

Anthony JanetosAnthony Janetos

Director, Joint Global Director, Joint Global Change Research InstituteChange Research Institute

Pacific Northwest National Pacific Northwest National Laboratory / University of Laboratory / University of MarylandMaryland

Thomas R. KarlThomas R. Karl

Director, National Climatic Director, National Climatic Data CenterData Center

National Oceanic National Oceanic and Atmospheric and Atmospheric AdministrationAdministration

Robert Lempert Robert Lempert

Senior Scientist Senior Scientist

RAND CorporationRAND Corporation

Gilbert MitchellGilbert Mitchell

Chief, Geodetic Chief, Geodetic Services DivisionServices Division

National Geodetic SurveyNational Geodetic Survey

National Oceanic National Oceanic and Atmospheric and Atmospheric AdministrationAdministration

Chris C. OynesChris C. Oynes

Gulf of MexicoGulf of Mexico

Regional DirectorRegional Director

Minerals Minerals Management ServiceManagement Service

Harold “Skip” Paul, P.E.Harold “Skip” Paul, P.E.

Associate Director Associate Director of Researchof Research

Louisiana Department Louisiana Department of Transportation and of Transportation and DevelopmentDevelopment

Tom PodanyTom Podany

Assistant Chief, PlanningAssistant Chief, Planning

U.S. Army Corps of U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, New Orleans Engineers, New Orleans DistrictDistrict

Burr StewartBurr Stewart

Strategic Strategic Planning ManagerPlanning Manager

Port of SeattlePort of Seattle

Elaine WilkinsonElaine Wilkinson

Executive DirectorExecutive Director

Gulf Regional Planning Gulf Regional Planning CommissionCommission

John ZamursJohn Zamurs

Head, Air Quality SectionHead, Air Quality Section

Environmental Environmental Analysis Division Analysis Division

New York State Department New York State Department of Transportationof Transportation

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Global Climate Change Impacts in the USAuthor Team

Co-Chairs: Tom Karl, NOAA; Jerry Melillo, Marine Biological Laboratory; Tom Peterson, NOAA

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Transportation Timeframes vs. Climate Impacts

00 1010 2020 3030 4040 5050 6060 7070 8080 9090 100100

ProjectProjectConceptConcept

ConstructionConstruction In ServiceIn Service

Engineering and DesignEngineering and Design

AdoptedAdoptedLong-Range PlanLong-Range Plan

YearsYears

Transportation Planning ProcessTransportation Planning Process

Service LifeService Life

Climate ImpactsClimate Impacts

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Results – Gulf Coast StudyTrends in Climate and the Natural Environment

2.14 mm/yr

6.5 mm/yr

9.85 mm/yr

Historical rate of sea level rise relative to the land surface varied among tide gauges across the region

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Year 2050 Low Year 2100 Low

A1FI B1 A1B A2 A1FI B1 A1B A2

Galveston, Texas 83.0 80.9 83.4 83.4 Galveston, Texas 130.7 117.0 124.9 127.0

Grand Isle, Louisiana 107.5 106.0 108.8 106.3 Grand Isle, Louisiana 171.2 159.7 168.7 167.6

Pensacola, Florida 48.0 47.8 48.4 53.7 Pensacola, Florida 83.9 70.1 78.2 75.2

Year 2050 Mid Year 2100 Mid





Year 2050 High Year 2100 High





Land Surface Elevations Subject to Flooding in the Study Area under High, Mid, and Low Sea Level rise Scenarios (Ensemble of 7 GCMs under

Four Emission Scenarios) (SLRRP Model results in centimeters)

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Caveats – Relative SLR and Storm Surge

Analysis of impacts is based on land elevation rather than the height of facilities

Analysis does not consider the presence of possible protective structures (levees, sea walls, etc.)

Given the connectivity of the intermodal system, a small flooded segment may render much of the infrastructure inoperable

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Results – Gulf Coast StudyTrends in Climate and the Natural Environment

Average temperature is likely to increase by 2°- 4° F• More hot days: # of days > 90 °F may increase by 50%

• Extreme daily high temps will also increase

Models show mixed results for changes in average precipitation• Intensity of rainfall events, however, will likely increase

The magnitude of impacts worsen as emissions increase under the IPCC scenarios

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More intense downpours will increase transportation disruptions

Heavy downpours have already increase

• The heaviest 1% of events has increased by 20%

Increased flooding of roadways, rail lines and other transportation facilities is expected from overloaded drainage systems

Changes in silt and debris buildup will affect channel depth at ports and increase dredging costs

More flights are likely to be delayed and/or cancelled

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Sea-level rise will increase the risk of permanent flooding in coastal areas

Relative sea level rise of 4 feet in the Gulf Coast could permanently flood:

24% of interstate miles, 28% of arterial miles, New Orleans Transit More than 2,400 miles of roadway are at risk of permanent flooding

72% of freight / 73% of non-freight facilities at ports

9% of the rail miles operated, 20% of the freight facilities, no passenger stations

3 airports

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Results – Gulf Coast StudyHighways Vulnerable to Relative Sea Level Rise

Source: Cambridge Systematics analysis of U.S. DOT Data.

Baseline (Present Day) 4 Feet of Sea Level Rise

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More intense storms will result in damaging storm surges

Transportation in vulnerable areas are already subject to large hurricanes; damages will increase as intensity increases

Temporary flooding of roads, airports, transit, ports and rail

Damages due to wave action, debris

Increased use of evacuation routes and rescue operations

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Results – Gulf Coast StudyVulnerability Due to…Storm Surge

Transportation infrastructure that is vulnerable to 18 feet of storm surge includes:

51% of interstate miles, 56% of arterial miles, and most transit authorities

98% of port facilities vulnerable to surge and 100% to wind

33% of rail miles operated, 43% of freight facilities

22 airports in the study area at or below 18 feet MSL

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Freight Rail Lines Vulnerable to Storm Surge of 18 feet

Source: Cambridge Systematics analysis of climate projections and Federal Railroad Administration data.

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Hurricane Katrina Damage to Highway 90 at Bay St. Louis, MS

Source: NASA Remote Sensing Tutorial.

Increases in extreme heat will limit some Increases in extreme heat will limit some operations and damage roads and railoperations and damage roads and rail

Changes in maintenance and construction practices

Rise in rail buckling

Impacts to aircraft performance and runway length

Increased use of energy for refrigerated storage

Number of Days Over 100Number of Days Over 100ººFF

Recent Past, 1961-1979

Higher Emissions Scenario, 2080-2099

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Preparing for change…

Robust transportation systems – reliability under a range of conditions

Use of new approaches to decision-making• Scenario planning

• Probabilistic rather than deterministic approach

• Risk assessment approach

Planning horizons (20 years) are not well-suited to the assessment of climate change impacts

Lessons Changes in demand for transportation services

Infrastructure will follow demand

• Flooding of urban and rural settlements

• Agricultural products

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Lessons Rolling adaptive processes, not a quick fix

Risk Assessment

AdaptationResponse

GreaterResilience

GreaterResilience

Appropriate, pre-emptive actions will be less costly. Climate uncertainty makes monitoring essential.

Lessons Planning for retirement

Rebuild or retreat?

• Time & Uncertainty

New Tools

•Risk Management

•Engineering Economy

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For More InformationFor More Information

“The Potential Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Transportation Systems and Infrastructure – The Gulf Coast Study, Phase I”

Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.7Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.7

http://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/saps/sap4-7

““Global Climate Change Impacts in the United Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States”States”

http://www.globalchange.gov/publications/http://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impactsreports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts

Documents

Small Sea Changes: Big Infrastructure Impacts