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Small and Medium Entrepreneurship in Russia
Sergei Safonov Partner, EY
Roundtable discussion SME financing in ENCA Luxembourg, 12 March 2014
Small and Medium Entrepreneurship in Russia Slide 2
Contents
►The role of SME sector in the Russian economy and the government attention to SME sector development
►The Russian SME sector structure, financing instruments and growth potential
►Financing needs of the SME sector and the role of development institutions – both Russian and international – in financing
markets development
Small and Medium Entrepreneurship in Russia Slide 3
Summary
► Development institutions can make a considerable impact on the Russian SME sector as SME financing markets are still in developing or emerging stage
► The SME sector in Russia has been steadily growing in recent years, both in terms of SME number and turnover
► Despite high growth rates, an international comparison shows strong potential for further growth of SME sector in Russia
► Low availability of banking and nonbanking financing for SMEs is among main constraints for the development of the sector
► SME financing markets demonstrate sustainable growth with emerging markets (factoring and microfinance) showing the highest growth rates
► The Russian government is active in shaping the business environment for SMEs – both through legislative improvements and by providing direct financial support,
e.g. from state-owned SME Bank (VEB Group)
► The government support for SMEs is primarily focused non-trade and non-resource sectors as well as on emerging SME activities across all industries
► SME financing markets attract various players including commercial and development banks – key strength of development banks is funding tenor, while funding
rates at commercial banks are still quite competitive
Small and Medium Entrepreneurship in Russia Slide 4
EU
3743
616
Key components of SME classification in Russia are similar to those used in EU
Revenue (eur mln)
Number of employees
10-25
1.5-10
<1.5
101-250
15-100
<15
10-50
2-10
<2
50-250
10-50
<10
44
Registered SMEs (thousands) Revenue (eur mln)
Number of employees
SME employment (mln)
Micro
Small
Medium
1
2
3
4.6
8.5
3
For the purposes of state support, legal entities, individual entrepreneurs and agricultural producers are considered as small or medium businesses if they meet three criteria,
according to Law 209-FZ:
Russia
SME Segmentation Russian SME statistics
Ownership structure: SME’s stake held by one or several legal entities, which are not small or medium businesses, should not exceed 25%
Workforce: Number of employees should not exceed 250 people
Volume of revenue: Annual turnover should not exceed 25 euro mln.
∑ = 4 403 ∑ = 16.1
Small and Medium Entrepreneurship in Russia Slide 5
84
IE
= 17* per 1000 of
population
= 22% of GDP
= 23% 13.7 13.3 13.4 13.5 13.2
3.0 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.9
16.7 16.4 16.5 16.6 16.1
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
546 487 641 694 685
175 183
112 196 200
721 669
753
890 885
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
SME sector in Russia has been steadily growing both in terms of SME number and turnover
Starting from 2008 the total number of small and medium enterprises has
grown by 7% and reached 4.4 mln.
Turnover of small and medium enterprises has steadily grown during after-
crisis period (starting from 2009) and in 2012 reached EUR 885 bln.
Total employment in Russian SMEs remained stable since 2008 and in
2012 is 16.1 mln. people.
Number of registered SMEs, in thousands
SME turnover, EUR bln
Employment in SME, millions of people
Legal entities (LE)
Individual entrepreneurs (IE)
of total employ-
ment
1.362 1.594 1.669 1.852 2.013
2.742 2.653 2.600 2.490 2.390
4.104 4.248 4.269 4.342 4.403
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Average turnover per SME,
EUR thousand, 2012
340
LE
Average employees per SME, 2012
1.2
IE
6.6
LE
* Number of active SMEs
Small and Medium Entrepreneurship in Russia Slide 6
52 51 51 49 49 49 48 47 47 45 44 44 43 43 42 40 40 40 39 38 37 35 35 32 30 29
25 23
Mal
ta
Esto
nia
Portu
gal
Latv
ia
Italy
Spai
n
Cyp
rus
Gre
ece
Cze
ch R
epub
lic
Den
mar
k
Slov
enia
Hun
gary
Lith
uani
a
Austr
ia
Bulg
aria
Irelan
d
Swed
en
Net
herla
nds
Euro
pe
Ger
man
y
Belg
ium
Finl
and
Poland
Fran
ce UK
Rom
ania
Slov
akia
Russ
ia
88
71 70 70 63 59 59 58 58 54 53
45 42 41 40 40 38 38 37 36 35 35 34 32 27 26 25 17
12
Cze
ch R
epub
lic
Mal
ta
Portu
gal
Gre
ece
Italy
Cyp
rus
Swed
en
Hun
gary
Luxe
mbo
urg
Spai
n
Slov
enia
Belg
ium
Euro
pe
Bulg
aria
Esto
nia
Finl
and
Fran
ce
Net
herla
nds
Poland
Den
mar
k
Austr
ia
Latv
ia
Irelan
d
Lith
uani
a
UK
Ger
man
y
Rom
ania
Russ
ia
Slov
akia
80% 79%
60% 60% 50% 50%
25% 22%
Italy Germany China Brazil USA UK Russia 2015 Russia 2012
Despite recent growth, in international comparison there is still considerable potential for further growth in SME sector in Russia
Employment in SME segment is 1.7 times lower than on average in
EU
Share of SME in GDP
In 2015 SME will produce quarter of Russian GDP which is still
significantly lower than in other developed and developing countries
Employment in SME (% of total employment, 2011*)
Number of active SMEs per 1 000 of population (2011*)
The number of SMEs per unit of population is 2 times lower than
on average in EU
* Russian figures are for 2012
Small and Medium Entrepreneurship in Russia Slide 7
State support to SME sector takes different forms (financial support, special tax regime etc.) with the focus on innovative SMEs
DESCRIPTION LEGISLATION
Sets the framework for state support to small business, objectives, forms and methods of state stimulation and
regulation of small business activity, definition and criteria for enterprises to be considered small-sized companies. 1 ► Law No. 88-FZ on State Support for Small Business in the Russian Federation (adopted in 1995)
Replaced the previous 88-FZ. Introduced the terms “medium entrepreneurship”, “microenterprises” and “infrastructure
for support to SME”. Defined methods of support for various forms of SME. 2 ► Federal Law No. 209-FZ on Developing Small and Medium Scale Entrepreneurship in the Russian
Federation (2008)
Sets measures and directions for improvement of entrepreneurship conditions, in particular through creation of
mechanism of state’s guarantees to secure medium-sized companies investment projects.
1
► President’s Decree No. 956 on “Long-term state economic policy” (2012, May)
Defines objectives and functions of the development bank, in particular states SME support as one of the main
functions. 3 ► Federal Law No. 82-FZ on “Development Bank” (2007)
Sets criterias for mid-sized entities (investment projects) selection for VEB guarantee support.
2
► The Ministry of Economic development - decree No. 143 on “Selection criteria for Russian medium entities and their investment projects” (2013)
► State’s finance program on SME support – Russian Government (2005) Declares the goals such as the increase of the volume of support of the innovative SMEs, medium enterprises, leasing
development, grant support of the beginner entrepreneurs, creation of SME support centers etc.
3
Fede
ral L
aws
Gov
ernm
ent m
easu
res
► State support of SME sector is focused on manufacturing sector with particular emphasis on innovative and technology intensive SMEs ►According to the definition, innovations include modernization and energy efficiency
Small and Medium Entrepreneurship in Russia Slide 8
Leaders of the rating 2014 (top-20)
Country 2013 2014 Improvement
Philippines 138 108 ▲30
Ukraine 137 112 ▲25
Russian Federation 112 92 ▲20
Rwanda 52 32 ▲20
Kosovo 98 86 ▲12
Top-5 economies improving the most*
1. Singapore
2. Hong Kong SAR, China
3. New Zealand
4. United States
5. Denmark
6. Malaysia
7. Korea, Rep.
8. Georgia
9. Norway
10. United Kingdom
11. Australia
12. Finland
13. Iceland
14. Sweden
15. Ireland
16. Taiwan, China
17. Lithuania
18. Thailand
19. Canada
20. Mauritius
Components 2013 2014
Starting a Business 100 88 (▲12)
Dealing with Construction Permits 180 178(▲2)
Getting Electricity 188 117(▲71)
Registering Property 46 17 (▲29)
Getting Credit 105 109 (▼4)
Protecting Investors 113 115 (▼2)
Paying Taxes 63 56 (▲7)
Trading Across Borders 162 157 (▲5)
Enforcing Contracts 10 10 (0)
Resolving Insolvency 53 55 (▼2)
Russian Federation rating components*
The Russian government is actively involved in shaping the business environment to intensify SME development
►Doing business report was chosen by the government as an indicator of SME sector development
►Government measures implemented in 2012-2013 helped Russian Federation to move up 20 positions being amongst the top-5 countries improving the most in the year 2013. The goal set by the
government is to reach top-20 by the year 2018.
► “Getting credit” is one of the key areas for improvement in the medium-term perspective
Source: World Bank Doing Business Report
Small and Medium Entrepreneurship in Russia Slide 9
27%
19%
17%
12%
11%
4%
30%
13%
32%
36%
40%
13%
Bank loan
Borrowings from relatives, friends orother companies
Trade credit
Leasing, factoring
Credit line, overdraft or credit card withoverdraft
Grants or subsidized bank loans RussiaEurope
More than 20% of Russian SMEs outline low availability of finance as a constraint for SME sector development
Key constraints for SME
development
47%
Shortage of qualified personnel
36%
High taxes
22%
Low availability of finance
18%
Decrease in demand
Sources of finance
The most popular source of SME financing,
according to the analysis, is bank loan (27%).
Second and third by popularity are borrowings from
relatives and friends (19%) and trade credit (17%).
Leasing, factoring and credit lines are not popular.
There is substantial unmet demand for financing in
SME sector in Russia.
EU
(also for investment purposes)
Small and Medium Entrepreneurship in Russia Slide 10
81
96
112
171
2010 2011 2012 2015F
The markets of SME financing demonstrate sustainable growth with emerging markets (factoring and microfinance) showing the highest growth rates
0.4 0.5 0.7
2.3
2010 2011 2012 2015F
CAGR + 15% 10.3
13.3 15.4
25.3
2010 2011 2012 2015F
CAGR +18%
SME lending market, EUR bln SME leasing market, EUR bln
1.1 1.8
3.2
12.1
2010 2011 2012 2015F
CAGR + 56%
SME factoring market, EUR bln SME microfinance market, EUR bln
CAGR + 52%
In 2012 the loan portfolio of Russian
banks in the SME segment is RUB4.5
trln (EUR112.4 bln). The growth rate in
2012 (17%) is lower than in 2011 (19%)
and in 2010 (22%).
The SME segment accounts for about 35%
of the total leasing market in Russia. In
2012 the SME share of total leasing market
grew by more than 6%, reflecting the desire
of leasing companies to diversify their
portfolios.
The factoring market is the fastest
growing financial market in Russia. In
2012 its share of GDP grew to 2.3%
(from 1.6% in 2011). The share of the
SME segment in new deals (2012) is
approximately 40%.
In 2012 the total portfolio of
microfinance organizations (MFOs)
was about RUB48 bln (EUR1.2 bln)
with annual growth of 30%. The share
of SME segment in portfolio is 54%
with RUB26 bln (EUR0.65 bln) in
absolute terms.
CAGR +18% CAGR +22%
CAGR +71% CAGR +32%
Small and Medium Entrepreneurship in Russia Slide 11
Actually there are six main groups of players on Russian banking market
State-owned commercial banks – country wide market
dominants headed by Sberbank.
Foreign banks – service and efficiency leaders with average
regional coverage.
Second tier private commercial banks – below average
commercial coverage seeking for product or channel
differentiation.
А
B
C
D
Major banking clusters on Russian market
Large private commercial banks – above average regional
coverage with growing service and efficiency.
E Local players – invisible on country level but may be
leaders in some regions.
F State owned development institutions – specific segments or
products. Price leaders in search of golden mean between
profitability and development.
Banks that are not in top-100 in terms of
assets
Development institution Local niche player
Local universal player Market-dominant multilateral player
Large
Small Large
Client segment coverage
Small
Regional coverage
А
B
C
D
E
F
Sberbank
VTB 24
Gazprombank
Alfa-bank
Ularsib
Russkiy Standart
MDM Bank
Citibank
Raiffeisen
Unicredit
Rosbank
Vnesheconombank
Rosselkhozbank
SME Bank
AHML
Binbank
Ural R&D Bank
RosEvroBank
Probusinessbank
Small and Medium Entrepreneurship in Russia Slide 12
Government and International Development Banks (IDB) are active in the market of SME financing
451
mln eur
1
2
3
Top3 government sources
Planned In 2013
2.3
bln eur
By June 2013
1.8
bln eur
0.5
bln eur
0.1
bln eur
134 bank-partners
140 non-banking organizations
Infrastructure projects
SME Bank
Lending: Provides loans through banks, leasing,
factoring, microfinance companies
Guarantees: 50% of a loan, 2-10 yrs, max 1.8%
per yr
Regional guarantee funds
79 funds assist SME in obtaining financing by
providing guarantees in regions
Federal Budget/
Regional Budget
Subsidies to regional programs for SME
support
475
mln eur
Spent In 2012 1
2
3
Top3 IDB players in Russia
Provides medium-term finance for SMEs, stimulates
entrepreneurship in the regions and supports banks
that grant credits to SMEs
SME financing is provided through a range of
instruments, including debt, credit lines and equity.
RSBF: Provides financing to SME and assists
institutional development of banking sector for
SME lending since 1994 (total EUR6.8 bln.)
Supports SME in Russia with financing and
advisory services
1.7
bln eur
Current investment portfolio in
Russia
900
mln eur
In 2012 invested in Russia
9.7
bln eur
Current investment portfolio in
Russia
2.6
bln eur
In 2012 67 projects worth
1.1
bln eur
2.4
bln eur
Capitalization
Guarantees portfolio
Loans given under guarantees
200
mln eur
Loans to Russian commercial
banks
82.5
mln eur
In 2012 environmental protection,
innovations and modernization
While government pays attention to SME segment, SME supporting policies and laws and funding sources are not unified and synchronous. Which leaves a lot of space for IDBs which are already
consistently expanding their presence in SME financing market.
0.8
bln eur
Small and Medium Entrepreneurship in Russia Slide 13
Most recent Russian government initiative in SME support is to create Federal Guarantee Agency
Commission for Distribution of
Subsidies Regions Regional funds
SME Bank Bank-partners
SMEs
State SME support mechanism through SME Bank (loans and guarantees)
State SME support through federal / regional budgets funds (subsidies, guarantees)
Russian Government Ministry of Economic Development
Ministry of Finance
Vnesheconombank
Federal Guarantee
Agency – to be
Key functions Key figures
Vnesheconombank
(focused approach)
Regional guarantee funds
Ministry of Economic
Development Bank-partners
SME Bank
Federal Guarantee Agency
(wider support approach)
SMEs
Possible positioning of Federal Guarantee Agency
► Guarantees to medium
enterprises
► Guarantees to regional funds
► Global management and control
for regional guarantee fund
system
► Reporting to the Ministry of
Economic Development
Capital size will be EUR
200 m to EUR 1 bn
Will manage ~80 regional
guarantee funds
Agency is expected to be
created in 2014
Current situation
Small and Medium Entrepreneurship in Russia Slide 14
High borrowing costs are cited as the main obstacle for availability of SME financing
48%
22%
2%
1%
2%
11%
14%
20%
22%
6%
3%
10%
34%
5%
High borrowing costs
Inability to provide necessarycollateral or guarantees
Financing is inavailable inprinciple
Decrease of control overcompany
Other
No obstacles
Reject to answer RussiaEurope
Key obstacles for SMEs financing Obstacles from SME’s side Obstacles from Bank’s side
► high interest rates on loans
► inability to provide collateral or
guarantee
► inability to provide necessary package
of documents
► financial position is not sound
► non-transparency of borrower
► shortage of potential borrowers with
sound financial position
► bad quality or absence of collateral
► higher loan reserves
► insufficient economical and legal
literacy of most small entrepreneurs
► shortage of qualified personnel
► insufficient experience in the area of
SME risk management
SME financing
High borrowing costs is the major obstacle for obtaining financing in the
SME segment (48%).The next significant obstacle is the inability to
provide collateral (22%)
Bank loan is the main source of financing but there is a room for growth due to considerable share of financing received from relatives and friends
EU
Small and Medium Entrepreneurship in Russia Slide 15
Key reason for high borrowing costs on SME financing market is high level of non-performing loans
7.6%
8.8% 8.2% 8.4%
6.8%
6.9%
5.2%
4.1% 5.7%
4.2% 3.7% 3.6%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
2009 2010 2011 2012
SME Retail Large
Non-performing loans in different segments
Total
716
Loan portfolios of banks, EUR bln*
411
193
112
2012
SME Retail Large
Small and Medium Entrepreneurship in Russia Slide 16
Local development institutions have about 10 times higher average funding tenor than commercial banks, while funding rates of commercial banks are significantly lower
3
6
9
9
9
9
10
16
47
98
110
Alfa Bank
Unicredit
Uniastrum
Raiffeisen
Vozrojdenie
VTB
Promsvyazbank
Sberbank
SME Bank
VEB
AHML
Average funding rate (“blended”), % Average funding tenor,months
Development institutions
State-owned commercial banks
Private commercial banks
Foreign banks
Development institutions don’t have access to funding sources available to Commercial banks (e.g. deposit portfolio, current accounts), which affects both average funding rate and funding
tenor.
* Rates are based on the average bond coupon rate. Source: cbonds.ru
10.3%
8.2%
7.9%
6.7%
4.6%
4.0%
3.6%
3.5%
3.3%
3.1%
2.9%
SME Bank
AHML
VEB
Uniastrum
Promsvyazbank
Vozrojdenie
Unicredit
Alfa Bank
VTB
Raiffeisen
Sberbank
Small and Medium Entrepreneurship in Russia Slide 17
According to our estimations, about 1 million SMEs currently require external financing
~ 15
Economically active SMEs, thousands
~ 2 000
∑ = ~2 500
~ 450-500
Major SME segments requiring external financing from
institutions, thousands (%)
~150
~600 ~150
~90
~10
∑ = ~750 (~38%)
∑ = ~240 (~50%)
∑ = ~10 (~67%)
2
1
Major industries
Manufacturing,
Agriculture,
Construction
Services,
Manufacturing,
Construction
Trade, Services,
Transport and Communications
Share of non-trade entities, %
65%
50%
69%
Com
petit
ion
and
pene
trat
ion
of b
ank
serv
ices
and
ext
erna
l fin
ancing
∑ = ~1 000
~ 2 000
1 Matured industrial SMEs 2 Emerging / developing SMEs of all sectors
SME segment (turnover, EUR mln)
Mid-sized
(10 – 25)
Small
(1.5 – 10)
Micro
(<1.5)
Small and Medium Entrepreneurship in Russia Slide 18
Client segments
Fina
ncin
g in
stru
men
ts
Each group of SME requiring financial support should be addressed with proper instruments of financing (either long-term or short-term)
Matured industrial SMEs – Boostering long-term financing
KEY DEVELOPMENT OPPORTUNITIES:
Bank lending
Factoring
Microfinance
Shor
t-ter
m
Long
-term
Leasing
1
2
3
4
1 2
Emerging/ developing SME (all sectors) – Providing short-term financing opportunities
1 2
Small and Medium Entrepreneurship in Russia Slide 19
The majority of SME financing markets in Russia is in the developing or emerging stage, and there is potential for EIB to make a considerable impact on the SME sector
Scenario = (1) product + (2) appropriate distribution technology
Impact assessment
(1) Product for ultimate
clients (SMEs)
(2) Distribution technology
Three-level
financing*
Two-level financing** Guarantee Securitiza-
tion
Market maturity
level
Potential market
size
Potential impact
Short term loans n/a Developed Very large Low
Long term loans Developing Very large High
Long term loans to non-
trade segment Emerging Large Very High
Long term loans to
innovative segment n/a Emerging Large Very High
Leasing to SMEs n/a n/a Developing Medium High
Leasing w/o railway and
passenger cars n/a n/a Emerging Medium Very High
Factoring n/a n/a n/a Emerging Small Moderate
Microfinancing n/a n/a Emerging Small Moderate
Equity n/a n/a Developing Large Moderate
Level of technology
complexity and risk
exposure Low Moderate High High
Technology capacity Very High High Low Low
*Three-level financing implies work with local
development institutions (e.g., VEB and its
subsidiary SME Bank) which will supply financing
to commercial banks (2nd level) and after that
commercial banks provide loans to SMEs (3rd
level). This option will give EIB the access to a
broad client network without establishing direct
relations with commercial banks and will
significantly reduce cost and risk. This option,
however, will lead to lower level of control and will
limit the ability for direct SME market impact.
** Two-level financing implies work with Russian
commercial banks (including State-owned,
privately- owned and international banks) which
will provide loans to their ultimate clients (SMEs).
Small and Medium Entrepreneurship in Russia Slide 20
Conclusions
► The development of the SME sector is very important for the Russian economy
► Diversification from the current concentration on large companies and on natural resources
► Creation of new workplaces while one-quarter of the employable population already works in SME sector
► SME sector potentially is a considerable taxpayer – a diversified income base for state budget
► SMEs output demonstrated high growth rates in recent years, about 19% p.a., and is expected to remain double digit in mid-term perspective
► The Russian government is making efforts on providing support to SME sector by improving business environment and financing activities but the system of state
support is still fragmented and not fully transparent
► Many SME financing markets and financing instruments in Russia are in developing or emerging stage, e.g. long-term financing, financing of emerging businesses,
securitization, etc.
► There is potential for development institutions to make a considerable impact on the Russian economy through enhancement of financial services for the SME
sector
Small and Medium Entrepreneurship in Russia Slide 21
Appendix
Small and Medium Entrepreneurship in Russia Slide 22
Decrease of the growth rates, consolidation, and focus on retail sector – are the main trends in Russian banking sector
Expected changes in Russian banking sector:
• In 2013 the volume of total banking assets in Russia is expected to reach
• EUR 1 250 bln (at current exchange rate at year end)
• Market will continue to grow but with decreased growth rates of about 10 - 12%
• Retail banking sector growth rates are expected to slow down
• Market consolidation will continue, the total number of banks will continue to decrease
• A tendency of the growing pressure of the large state-owned banks will preserve
• Privately owned banks will focus mainly on retail, SME and MidCap segments as local LargeCap is predominantly covered
by state-owned banks
• Business scale, capital size and funding
• Innovative and technological business-models
• Network efficiency, right choice of product line and speed of entry in new market segments
Small players without a clear focus will be squeezing out of the market
Market size and growth
Market structure
Future success factors
Small and Medium Entrepreneurship in Russia Slide 23
700 735
845
1,040
1,238
1,693
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2015f
Bank assets growth rate will substantially slowdown, the volume of banking assets will reach 1 693 EUR bln by 2015
Assets, EUR bln.
47%
80%
80%
85%
94%
119%
309%
397%
Kazakhstan
Ukraine
Russia 2012
Russia 2015
Poland
Czech Republic
Germany
France
Comments Assets % of GDP, 2012 г.
Total bank assets in Russia:
• In the next years it is expected that the
current trend of GDP growth rate slowdown
will preserve
• The bank assets to GDP ratio will continue
to grow, however it’s growth rate will
slowdown
• Bank assets to GDP ratio is expected to be
85% by 2015
• Average growth rate of Bank assets in
Russia will amount to 11% by 2015
67.5% 74.7% 73.4% 75.3% 79.9% 85.0%
% of GDP
Sources: EY, Bank of Russia
+5% p.a.
+20% p.a.
+11% p.a.
Small and Medium Entrepreneurship in Russia Slide 24
Bank assets share in banking sector by types, %
For many small banks without distinct positioning a survival question arises
► The structure dynamics of the banking sector indicate that
state-owned banks are strengthening
► In particular it is connected with state-owned banks being
preferred by consumers as their financial services providers
► This trend will increase in case of economic decline
► Foreign bank’s share in Russian banking assets decreased
due to the problems at their domestic markets
► A substantial decrease of Russian small banks share is
observed
Sources: EY, CEE Banking Sector Report
32%
44% 53%
15%
17%
20%
5%
11%
8% 45%
28% 19%
2003 2008 2012
Small and medium privately-
owned banks
Foreign banks
State-owned banks
Large private banks
(top-30)
Comments
137
EUR bln
1 237
EUR bln 700
EUR bln
Small and Medium Entrepreneurship in Russia Slide 25
Forecasted population income increase will assure the growth of retail sector share in credit portfolio
► Traditionally corporate lending significantly exceeded retail lending in Russia
► In the past years a significant growth of retail lending is observed, whereupon credit portfolio
changes gradually approaching the indicators of the developed markets
► A further increase of retail credits share of 33.3% is expected by the end of 2015
363
255
193
138 103
2015f2013e201220112010
Credits to legal entities, EUR bln
Credits to individuals, EUR bln Share of retail loan portfolio in total loan portfolio, %
725
594 523
460 363
2015f2013e201220112010
31.4% 33.0%
% of GDP
33.4% 36.4%
8.9% 9.9%
% of GDP
12.3% 18.2%
28.2% 33.3%
44.3% 50.7%
56.0%
65.8%
Russia 2012 Russia 2015 Czech Republic France Germany Poland
Comments
Sources: EY, CEE Banking Sector Report, European Central Bank
35.2%
15.1%