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Sistemas de inferencia difusos y redes neuronales Bernardo Bastien Emisiones Temperatura

Sistemas de inferencia difusos y redes neuronales...๐‘‘๐‘‡ ๐‘‘๐‘ก = ๐‘‘๐‘„ ๐‘‘๐‘ก,๐‘‡ ๐‘‘๐‘„ ๐‘‘๐‘ก = ๐‘„,๐ธ โˆ†๐‘ธand ๐‘ป ๐‘ธand ๐‘ฌ Low 1 1 Medium 2 2 High 3

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Page 1: Sistemas de inferencia difusos y redes neuronales...๐‘‘๐‘‡ ๐‘‘๐‘ก = ๐‘‘๐‘„ ๐‘‘๐‘ก,๐‘‡ ๐‘‘๐‘„ ๐‘‘๐‘ก = ๐‘„,๐ธ โˆ†๐‘ธand ๐‘ป ๐‘ธand ๐‘ฌ Low 1 1 Medium 2 2 High 3

Sistemas de inferencia difusosy redes neuronales

Bernardo Bastien

Emisiones Temperatura

Page 2: Sistemas de inferencia difusos y redes neuronales...๐‘‘๐‘‡ ๐‘‘๐‘ก = ๐‘‘๐‘„ ๐‘‘๐‘ก,๐‘‡ ๐‘‘๐‘„ ๐‘‘๐‘ก = ๐‘„,๐ธ โˆ†๐‘ธand ๐‘ป ๐‘ธand ๐‘ฌ Low 1 1 Medium 2 2 High 3

Lรณgica difusa

Page 3: Sistemas de inferencia difusos y redes neuronales...๐‘‘๐‘‡ ๐‘‘๐‘ก = ๐‘‘๐‘„ ๐‘‘๐‘ก,๐‘‡ ๐‘‘๐‘„ ๐‘‘๐‘ก = ๐‘„,๐ธ โˆ†๐‘ธand ๐‘ป ๐‘ธand ๐‘ฌ Low 1 1 Medium 2 2 High 3

Pensamos con un mayor grado de significado que de precision

Modelar las partes

Modelar el sistema

Page 4: Sistemas de inferencia difusos y redes neuronales...๐‘‘๐‘‡ ๐‘‘๐‘ก = ๐‘‘๐‘„ ๐‘‘๐‘ก,๐‘‡ ๐‘‘๐‘„ ๐‘‘๐‘ก = ๐‘„,๐ธ โˆ†๐‘ธand ๐‘ป ๐‘ธand ๐‘ฌ Low 1 1 Medium 2 2 High 3
Page 5: Sistemas de inferencia difusos y redes neuronales...๐‘‘๐‘‡ ๐‘‘๐‘ก = ๐‘‘๐‘„ ๐‘‘๐‘ก,๐‘‡ ๐‘‘๐‘„ ๐‘‘๐‘ก = ๐‘„,๐ธ โˆ†๐‘ธand ๐‘ป ๐‘ธand ๐‘ฌ Low 1 1 Medium 2 2 High 3
Page 6: Sistemas de inferencia difusos y redes neuronales...๐‘‘๐‘‡ ๐‘‘๐‘ก = ๐‘‘๐‘„ ๐‘‘๐‘ก,๐‘‡ ๐‘‘๐‘„ ๐‘‘๐‘ก = ๐‘„,๐ธ โˆ†๐‘ธand ๐‘ป ๐‘ธand ๐‘ฌ Low 1 1 Medium 2 2 High 3
Page 7: Sistemas de inferencia difusos y redes neuronales...๐‘‘๐‘‡ ๐‘‘๐‘ก = ๐‘‘๐‘„ ๐‘‘๐‘ก,๐‘‡ ๐‘‘๐‘„ ๐‘‘๐‘ก = ๐‘„,๐ธ โˆ†๐‘ธand ๐‘ป ๐‘ธand ๐‘ฌ Low 1 1 Medium 2 2 High 3

๐‘‘๐‘‡

๐‘‘๐‘ก= ๐‘“

๐‘‘๐‘„

๐‘‘๐‘ก, ๐‘‡

๐‘‘๐‘„

๐‘‘๐‘ก= ๐‘” ๐‘„, ๐ธ

Page 8: Sistemas de inferencia difusos y redes neuronales...๐‘‘๐‘‡ ๐‘‘๐‘ก = ๐‘‘๐‘„ ๐‘‘๐‘ก,๐‘‡ ๐‘‘๐‘„ ๐‘‘๐‘ก = ๐‘„,๐ธ โˆ†๐‘ธand ๐‘ป ๐‘ธand ๐‘ฌ Low 1 1 Medium 2 2 High 3

๐‘‘๐‘‡

๐‘‘๐‘ก= ๐‘“

๐‘‘๐‘„

๐‘‘๐‘ก, ๐‘‡

๐‘‘๐‘„

๐‘‘๐‘ก= ๐‘” ๐‘„, ๐ธ

โˆ†๐‘ธ and ๐‘ป ๐‘ธ and ๐‘ฌ

Low ๐‘“1 ๐‘”1

Medium ๐‘“2 ๐‘”2

High ๐‘“3 ๐‘”3

Page 9: Sistemas de inferencia difusos y redes neuronales...๐‘‘๐‘‡ ๐‘‘๐‘ก = ๐‘‘๐‘„ ๐‘‘๐‘ก,๐‘‡ ๐‘‘๐‘„ ๐‘‘๐‘ก = ๐‘„,๐ธ โˆ†๐‘ธand ๐‘ป ๐‘ธand ๐‘ฌ Low 1 1 Medium 2 2 High 3
Page 10: Sistemas de inferencia difusos y redes neuronales...๐‘‘๐‘‡ ๐‘‘๐‘ก = ๐‘‘๐‘„ ๐‘‘๐‘ก,๐‘‡ ๐‘‘๐‘„ ๐‘‘๐‘ก = ๐‘„,๐ธ โˆ†๐‘ธand ๐‘ป ๐‘ธand ๐‘ฌ Low 1 1 Medium 2 2 High 3

error

ajuste

Datos

Page 11: Sistemas de inferencia difusos y redes neuronales...๐‘‘๐‘‡ ๐‘‘๐‘ก = ๐‘‘๐‘„ ๐‘‘๐‘ก,๐‘‡ ๐‘‘๐‘„ ๐‘‘๐‘ก = ๐‘„,๐ธ โˆ†๐‘ธand ๐‘ป ๐‘ธand ๐‘ฌ Low 1 1 Medium 2 2 High 3

Validaciรณn

Page 12: Sistemas de inferencia difusos y redes neuronales...๐‘‘๐‘‡ ๐‘‘๐‘ก = ๐‘‘๐‘„ ๐‘‘๐‘ก,๐‘‡ ๐‘‘๐‘„ ๐‘‘๐‘ก = ๐‘„,๐ธ โˆ†๐‘ธand ๐‘ป ๐‘ธand ๐‘ฌ Low 1 1 Medium 2 2 High 3

Proyecciones

Page 13: Sistemas de inferencia difusos y redes neuronales...๐‘‘๐‘‡ ๐‘‘๐‘ก = ๐‘‘๐‘„ ๐‘‘๐‘ก,๐‘‡ ๐‘‘๐‘„ ๐‘‘๐‘ก = ๐‘„,๐ธ โˆ†๐‘ธand ๐‘ป ๐‘ธand ๐‘ฌ Low 1 1 Medium 2 2 High 3

Control difuso

Page 14: Sistemas de inferencia difusos y redes neuronales...๐‘‘๐‘‡ ๐‘‘๐‘ก = ๐‘‘๐‘„ ๐‘‘๐‘ก,๐‘‡ ๐‘‘๐‘„ ๐‘‘๐‘ก = ๐‘„,๐ธ โˆ†๐‘ธand ๐‘ป ๐‘ธand ๐‘ฌ Low 1 1 Medium 2 2 High 3

Control de Temperatura

Cercanรญa a temperatura lรญmite

Temperatura respecto al aรฑo anterior

Cambio en las emisiones

Page 15: Sistemas de inferencia difusos y redes neuronales...๐‘‘๐‘‡ ๐‘‘๐‘ก = ๐‘‘๐‘„ ๐‘‘๐‘ก,๐‘‡ ๐‘‘๐‘„ ๐‘‘๐‘ก = ๐‘„,๐ธ โˆ†๐‘ธand ๐‘ป ๐‘ธand ๐‘ฌ Low 1 1 Medium 2 2 High 3

Control de Temperatura

Page 16: Sistemas de inferencia difusos y redes neuronales...๐‘‘๐‘‡ ๐‘‘๐‘ก = ๐‘‘๐‘„ ๐‘‘๐‘ก,๐‘‡ ๐‘‘๐‘„ ๐‘‘๐‘ก = ๐‘„,๐ธ โˆ†๐‘ธand ๐‘ป ๐‘ธand ๐‘ฌ Low 1 1 Medium 2 2 High 3

Experimento Activation temperature: 1ยฐCStabilzation temperature: 2ยฐC

Con escenarios de emisiones bajas obtenemos estabilizaciรณn local y final

La amplitud del cambio en las emisiones es mayor cuando se comienza con escenarios de emisiones mayores

Page 17: Sistemas de inferencia difusos y redes neuronales...๐‘‘๐‘‡ ๐‘‘๐‘ก = ๐‘‘๐‘„ ๐‘‘๐‘ก,๐‘‡ ๐‘‘๐‘„ ๐‘‘๐‘ก = ๐‘„,๐ธ โˆ†๐‘ธand ๐‘ป ๐‘ธand ๐‘ฌ Low 1 1 Medium 2 2 High 3
Page 18: Sistemas de inferencia difusos y redes neuronales...๐‘‘๐‘‡ ๐‘‘๐‘ก = ๐‘‘๐‘„ ๐‘‘๐‘ก,๐‘‡ ๐‘‘๐‘„ ๐‘‘๐‘ก = ๐‘„,๐ธ โˆ†๐‘ธand ๐‘ป ๐‘ธand ๐‘ฌ Low 1 1 Medium 2 2 High 3

No pretendemos utilizar la lรณgica difusa paraabordar la labor de entendimiento del clima,asรญ como lo hacen los modelos de altacomplejidad. Nuestro cometido atiende mรกs ala necesidad de la eficiencia en lamodelaciรณn climรกtica para la toma decisiones

Page 19: Sistemas de inferencia difusos y redes neuronales...๐‘‘๐‘‡ ๐‘‘๐‘ก = ๐‘‘๐‘„ ๐‘‘๐‘ก,๐‘‡ ๐‘‘๐‘„ ๐‘‘๐‘ก = ๐‘„,๐ธ โˆ†๐‘ธand ๐‘ป ๐‘ธand ๐‘ฌ Low 1 1 Medium 2 2 High 3

ยกGracias!

[email protected]

Bernardo Bastien

Programa de Investigaciรณn en CambioClimรกtico, UNAM


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ะ•ะ›ะ•ะšะขะ ะ˜ะงะะž ะŸะžะ‰ะ•ย ยท Jะฐั‡ะธะฐ ะตะปะตะบั‚ั€ะธั‡ะณ ะฟั™ะฐ je ะฒะตะบั‚ั€ัะบะฐ ะฒะตะปะธั‡ะธะฐ: 1. ั˜ะฐั‡ะธะฐ ะฒะตะบั‚ั€ะฐ ๐‘ฌ ั˜ะต ะฒะตั›ะฐ ั‚ะฐ ะณะดะต ััƒ ะตะปะตะบั‚ั€ะธั‡ะต

ะ•ะ›ะ•ะšะขะ ะ˜ะงะะž ะŸะžะ‰ะ•ย ยท Jะฐั‡ะธะฐ ะตะปะตะบั‚ั€ะธั‡ะณ ะฟั™ะฐ je ะฒะตะบั‚ั€ัะบะฐ ะฒะตะปะธั‡ะธะฐ: 1. ั˜ะฐั‡ะธะฐ ะฒะตะบั‚ั€ะฐ ๐‘ฌ ั˜ะต ะฒะตั›ะฐ ั‚ะฐ ะณะดะต ััƒ ะตะปะตะบั‚ั€ะธั‡ะต

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Shipra Agrawal IEOR 8100 (Reinforcement Learning)ย ยท [A. and Goyal COLT 2012, AISTATS 2013, JACM 2017, Kaufmann et al. 2013] Instance-dependent bounds for {0,1} rewards Regret Q๐’๐’(๐‘ป)1+๐œ–

Shipra Agrawal IEOR 8100 (Reinforcement Learning)ย ยท [A. and Goyal COLT 2012, AISTATS 2013, JACM 2017, Kaufmann et al. 2013] Instance-dependent bounds for {0,1} rewards Regret Q๐’๐’(๐‘ป)1+๐œ–

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