SIP101Introduc.ontoAirQualityPlanningNote:thispresenta.oncontainsexcerptsfromamul.-jurisdic.onalorganiza.onal(MJO)projectfundedbytheLakeMichiganAreaDirectorsConsor.um(LADCO),Mid-Atlan.cRegionalAirManagementAssocia.on,Inc.(MARAMA),CentralStatesAirResourceAgenciesAssocia.on(CenSARA)anddevelopedbyZacAdelman,UniversityofNorthCarolinaIns.tuteToday’spresenta.onby:TheresaPella,Execu.veDirector,CenSARAAugust23,2016A&WMARockyMountainStatesSec.on

TheCleanAirActestablishedroles

•  Responsibility:– SeZngna.onalambientairqualitystandards(NAAQS)-EPA

– Designingandexecu.ngstateimplementa.onplans(SIPs)tocomplywiththeNAAQS-states/locals/tribes/EPA

– Assessingandmeasuringprogressofairquality(S/L/T)

– EnforcingSIPs(EPA,S/L/T)

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TheCleanAirAct(CAA)

1970 1980 1990

JUL1970EPAformed

1990CAAAmendments•  Regula.onsfornonaaainmentareas•  Newrequirementsforvehiclesandfuels•  OTR/OTC•  Acidraincapandtrade(TitleIV)•  StratosphericO3•  Strongerenforcementauthority

APR1971NAAQSestablished

1970CAA•  NAAQSauthority•  1975aaainmentdeadline•  SIPguidelines•  Emissionsstandardsforindustryandautomobiles

•  HazardousAirPollutants

1975StatestoaaainNAAQS;95%emissionsreduc.onsfromcars

1977CAAAmendments•  NewSourceReview(NSR)•  Preven.onofSignificantDeteriora.on(PSD)•  ClassIAreas•  ExtendedAaainmentDeadlines•  CASAC

MAY31,19721stSIPsapproved

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Designa.onDefini.ons •  Aaainment

–  Anyareawithmonitor(s)thatmeet(s)apar.cularNAAQS(ex:PM2.5,SO2,Ozone…)

•  AnareacanbeaaainmentforoneNAAQSandnonaaainmentforadifferentone

•  Nonaaainment–  Anyareawithmonitor(s)thatdoes/donotmeetprimaryand/ora

secondaryNAAQS–  Anyareathatcontributestotheambientairqualityinanearbyarea

thatdoesnotmeetprimaryand/orsecondaryNAAQSforthatpollutant

•  Unclassifiable–  Anyareawithinsufficient(orno)airqualitymonitoringdata

•  EPAhashistoricallyused“unclassifiable/aaainment”nomenclature

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Designa.ons

•  Designa.onsbasedonseveralfactors– Monitoringdata– Emissionsdata– Meteorology/airtransportpaaerns– Geography/topography–  Jurisdic.onalboundaries

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StateImplementa.onPlans(SIPs)

SIPsarethevehiclethatcontainstheairqualitydata,technicalanalyses,andcontrolmeasuresandstrategiesdeveloped/adoptedbyaState/TribeandapprovedbyEPAforaaainingandmaintainingtheNa.onalAmbientAirQualityStandards(NAAQS)

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ExamplesofthetypesofSIPRevisions

•  InfrastructureorI-SIP–  transportrequirements(everheardofCAIRorCSAPR?)areusuallysubmiaedasaseparateSIP

•  AaainmentDemonstra.on•  Redesigna.on/MaintenancePlan•  Transporta.onConformity•  GeneralConformity(nolongerrequired)•  NonaaainmentNewSourceReview•  VehicleInspec.on/Maintenance•  StartUp/Shutdown/Maintenance•  RegionalHaze(arewehavingfunyet?)

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CAATitleIPartDNonaaainmentAreaRequirements•  AaainNAAQSwithinaspecifiedperiod•  SubmitaSIPwith:

– Monitoringdata–  Emissionsinventory–  RACT/RACM;BACT/BACM(onewaypermitsareconnectedtoSIPs)

–  Addi.onalcontrolmeasuresifneeded(ex:regula.ons,ordinances,consentdecrees,etc.)

–  Reasonablefurtherprogress(RFP)–  Con.ngencymeasures– Motorvehicleemissionsbudget(MVEB)–  Proofofpublicreviewandcommentprocessandresults

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TypicalNAASIPDevelopmentProcess

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BaselineEmissionsInventory

ControlStrategy

Development

ControlledEmissionsInventory

AirQualityModeling

NAAQSMet?

Drar

Implementa.onRules

PublicCommentPeriod&Hearing

StateAdopts

Rules

ResponsetoComments

SubmitSIPtoEPARegional

Office

No

Yes

DrarStateSIP

FinalStateSIP

Legisla.veReview

ResponsetoComments

Start

NAADesigna.on

Finish

RoadMap•  AirQualityMonitoring

–  MonitoringNetworks–  AirQualityIndex

•  AirPollu.onEmissions–  EmissionsInventories–  EmissionsModeling

•  AirQualityModeling–  Grid-basedanddispersion

modeling•  ControlMeasures

–  Emissionslimit/opera.nghourslimits/technologypushing–  NewSourceReview–  BehavioralChanging(ex:vehicleidling)

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11SLAMS-StateandLocalAirMonitoringSta2ons

MonitorDesignValues

•  DesignvaluesarecalculatedbyEPAeachyearforinforma.onalpurpose,whetherEPAisactuallymakinganofficialdetermina.onornot.– See:hap://www.epa.gov/airtrends/values.html

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WhatisanEmissionsInventory?

•  Currentcomprehensivelis.ngbysourcesofairpollutantemissionsinageographicalareaduringaspecific.meperiod

•  Thebasisfornumerouseffortsincludingtrendsanalysis,regional,andlocalscaleairqualitymodeling,regulatoryimpactassessments,andhumanexposuremodeling

•  Pollutants:–  NAAQSPollutants(CO,NO2,SO2,VOC,Lead,andPar.culates)

–  HazardousAirPollutants(e.g.,Benzene,Acetaldehyde)–  GreenhouseGases(e.g.CO2,CH4,N2O)

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EmissionInventoryCompila.onSteps

•  Planning•  GatheringInforma.on•  Es.ma.ngEmissions•  CompilingtheDatabase•  QA/QC•  DataAugmenta.on•  Documenta.on•  AllowingPublicDataAccess

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Howareemissionscalculated?

•  EmissionsFactor(EF)relatesthequan.tyofapollutantreleasedintotheatmospherewiththeac.vitythatreleasesit

E=AxEF E=Emissions(e.g.tons/year) A=Ac.vity(e.g.#emiZngprocesses/year) EF=EmissionsFactor(e.g.tons/emiZngprocess)

•  Equa.onbecomesmorecomplexwhenAandEFvaryunderdifferentcondi.ons(space,.me,technologydifferences,typesandextentofcontrolmeasuresinplace,etc.)

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HowareemissionsinventoriesusedinSIPmodeling?•  SIPmodelinginventorieshavespecificrequirements:– Geographicallyresolvedemissions(griddedorspecificdimensions)vs.county-levelemissionsfortheNEI

– Hourly.meresolu.on–temporalalloca.onofemissions

–  Pollutantspecies(“modelspecies”)tomeetneedsofAQmodelchemical/physicalalgorithms

– QualityAssurance/QualityControlofdata– Allsources(area/mobile/point/biogenic)arerepresented

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Predic.ngtheFuture

•  Thereisnowaytoverifytheaccuracyofthemodel’sfutureyearpredic.ons

•  Therefore,modelerssimulatehistoricalperiodsw/varyingmeteorologicalscenariosandassessmodelperformance– Maybeepisodesorfullyear(s)

•  Theassump.onis,ifthemodelcanreplicatewhatwasdoneinthepast,andisdoingsofortherightreasons,thenitcanbeusedfordetermina.onsofpredictedfuturechangesinpollutantconcentra.ons

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EmissionsModeling

•  EmissionsModelsaresorwarethates.mateemissions(“process-based”)– Examples:MOVES(onroadmobile),BEIS(biogenics)

•  EmissionsProcessorsaresorwarethatconvertinventoriestotheterms/formatsrequiredbyairqualitymodels– Example:SMOKE

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ModelInputs:Meteorology

•  Meteorology– Modelsneedmanymeteorologicalvariables(gridded,hourly)asinputtosimulateadvec.on,diffusion,deposi.on,chemicaltransforma.on,etc.

•  Windfields•  Temperature•  Moisture•  Ver.caldiffusionorPlanetaryBoundaryLayer(PBL)height

– UsegriddeddatafromameteorologicalmodelsuchasWRF

•  Moreinforma.onavailableat:hap://www.epa.gov/an/scram/metdataindex.htm

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ModelPerformanceEvalua.on

•  Opera.onalEvalua.on:comparepredictedconcentra.onstoobservedconcentra.ons– Sta.s.cs(bias,error,etc.)– Scaaerplots– Timeseriesplots

•  Ifmodelperformanceis“acceptable”thenthemodelingsystemcanbeusedtopredictairqualityinthefuture.

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ExampleModelingDomains

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HoustonSIPModelingDomain(36/12/4km)

OTCSIPModelingDomain(36/12)

FutureYearPredic.onsandControlStrategies

•  Emissionsareprojectedtoafutureyearandthemodelisrunagain(themeteorologyisheldconstant)– Thedifferencebetweenthebaseandfutureyearisthepredictedfutureairqualityimpacts

– Themodelcanberunagainwithalterna.vefutureyearemissionscontrolstrategies

•  Developmentofcontrolstrategiesisonepossibleexternalstakeholderpar.cipa.onpoint

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ControlStrategiesandMeasures

•  EmissionsControlStrategyDevelopmentSteps1.  Determineprioritypollutants2.  Iden.fycontrolmeasures

1.  Quan.fiable2.  Enforceable3.  Excess4.  Permanent

3.  IncorporatecontrolmeasuresintoSIP1.  FuturerevisionstoSIPapprovedmeasuresmustbe

submiaedtoEPAasSIPrevisions4.  Publicpar.cipa.on

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MotorVehicleEmissionsBudgets

•  Somecriteriapollutantaaainmentdemonstra.onSIPsmustincludeemissionsbudgetsforon-roadmobilesources– AppliestoallvehicleswithinanNAA,nottoindividualvehicles

•  Dualpurpose– Aaainmentandmaintenanceplans– Transporta.onconformity

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Con.ngencyMeasures

•  NAASIPsmustprovidefortheimplementa.onofmeasuresifanareafailstoaaaintheNAAQSormakeRFP– Mustequalorexceed3%ofVOCorNOxemissionsbeyondthelevelsneededforaaainmentorRFPgoals

•  Con.ngencymeasuresmustbe“aboveandbeyond”thoseincludedintheaaainmentdemonstra.onandbereadilyimplementedifnecessary

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MaintenancePlans

•  Onceaaainmentisreached,aS/L/Tmustdemonstratehowtheareawillmaintainthatstatusfor10yearsfollowingredesigna.on– A2nd10-yearmaintenanceplanwillbedueabout8yearslater

•  Mustincludecon.ngencymeasuresthatcouldbeimplementedifaviola.onisrecordedatany.meduringthemaintenanceperiod.

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SIPsandSta.onarySourcePermits

•  Thenonaaainmentclassifica.onofanareadetermineshownew/modifiedsourcescanbepermiaed–  Thearea’sprogrammustbe“codified”viaaSIPrevision

•  NewSourceReview(NSR)permiZngprogram–  NonaAainmentNSRpermitsarerequiredfornewmajorsources/

majorsourcemodifica.onsinnonaaainmentareas•  Ozonemoderate•  Ozoneserious•  PM2.5moderate

–  PrevenDonofSignificantDeterioraDon(PSD)permitsarerequiredfornewmajorormajorsourcesmakingmodifica.onsinaaainmentandmaintenanceareas

–  MinorsourceNSRpermitspreventtheconstruc.onofsourcesthatwouldinterferewithaaainmentormaintenanceoftheNAAQSorviolateaNAA’saaainmentplan

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WhathappensifaStatemissesaSIPdeadline?

•  Sanc.ons!–  Discre.onarySanc.ons,CAA110(m)– MandatorySanc.ons,CAA179

•  Sanc.onstriggeredby:–  FindingoffailuretosubmitacompleteSIP–  FindingoffailuretoimplementanyelementofanapprovedSIP

–  DisapprovalofaSIP–  FailuretosubmitaSIPrevisionforwhichEPAhasissuedaSIPcallordisapprovalno.ce

–  DonotapplyforfailuretoaaainaNAAQS

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Sanc.ons

•  Mandatory,CAA§179–  2:1Offsets=Ara.oofatleast2:1emissionsreduc.onswithintheNAAfornewormodifiedmajorfacili.esundergoingNSR;maybestatewideintransportregions

–  Highway=Fundingmoratoriumforallbutexemptprojects(safety,masstransit)

•  Discre.onary,CAA§110(m)–  AppliestoallSIPelements–  Maybeapplied“atany.me”arertrigger,meaningEPAhasthediscre.onaryauthoritytoshortenthe18/24monthclocks

–  Offsetsanc.onsonlyapplytowhereNAA,NSRrequirementsapply

–  Highwaysanc.onsmayapplyanywhere(NAAornon-NAA)

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Whathappensifanareafailsto.melyaaainaNAAQS

•  Areamaygetbumpeduptohigherclassifica.on(ex:frommoderatetoserious)

•  AnewSIPrevisionisrequired•  CAAprovidesforone-yearextensioninsomecases

SIP101-Introduc2ontoAirQualityPlanning:Module1 31

PostSIPSubmiaal

•  EPAhas6monthstodeterminecomplete/incomplete–defaultis“complete”ifnoac.on

•  EPAthenhas18monthstoapprove/disapprove–  Inmean.me,statecanenforcerulesithaspromulgated;EPAcanonlyenforcerulesthatitapprovesaspartofSIP

– Disapproval–statehas2yearstotryagainorEPAmustprepareFIP

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Ci.zenSuits

•  Withsomerestric.ons,CAASec.on304providesthatci.zensmaysueEPAwhentheagencyfailstoperformanactordutyrequiredbytheActandviolatorsofanemissionstandardorpermitrequirement– FirstenvironmentallawintheU.S.toallowforsuchlawsuits

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Appendix

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GeneralInforma.on

•  haps://www.epa.gov/ozone-designa.ons/ozone-designa.ons-guidance-and-data#A

•  haps://www.epa.gov/ozone-pollu.on/state-implementa.on-plan-sip-checklist-guide

SIP101-Introduc2ontoAirQualityPlanning:Module1 35

•  TheWeatherResearchForecast(WRF)modelisusedformostregionalairqualityapplica.onsintheU.S.

www.wrf-model.org– AdvancedcoupledversionofWRFandCMAQarebeingdevelopedandusedintheresearchcommunity

•  Real-.mefeedbackbetweenmetandairqualitymodel

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SIPModelingGuidanceMeteorologicalModelSelec.on

•  SMOKE(SparseMatrixOperatorKernelEmissions)modelingsystem

www.smoke-model.org•  Process-basedmodelsareusedforsomeinventorycomponents– Mobileemissions:MOVES2014– Biogenicemissions:BEIS3orMEGAN

•  EPAEmissionsModelingResourceswww.epa.gov/anchie1/emch/

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SIPModelingGuidanceEmissionsModelSelec.on