Simulation Model Concepts

v2

Intent

Illustrate the use of simulation models Subject a draft design to a battery of tests

Illustrate the concept of performance measures Compare outcomes for alternative designs

Lead into a discussion of model scoping Design models to explore specific questions

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100,000 200,000 300,0000

20%

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60%

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llow

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le M

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Harvest Rule Simulated Trajectories

Population Model

Scenario 1

Scenario 2

How to compare the 2 piles of pasta?

Scenario 1

Scenario 2

Pasta Performance Measures

Avg length = 23cmNoodles<10cm=15%Done = soft

Avg length = 26cmNoodles<10cm = 5%Done = Al dente

Fish Performance Measures

Median Spawner AbdSpawners < BM2 = x%Variability in Spawners

“ All models are wrong, but some are useful”

G.P.E Box

Vs.

Developed by

Gottfried Pestal and Tatiana Tunon SOLV Consulting Ltd.www.solv.ca

Incorporating ideas from

Ann-Marie Huang, Mike Staley, Pete Nicklin, Jamie Scroggie, and Rick Stanley

All images via Google image search.