30
Indophil Resources NL ASX Small to Mid Caps Conference Hong Kong 29 October 2009 - Gavan Collery, VP Corporate Affairs 1 www.indophil.com

Shayne Heffernan Issues Strong Buy on Indophil ASX:IRN

Embed Size (px)

DESCRIPTION

Shayne Heffernan Issues Strong Buy on Indophil ASX:IRN

Citation preview

Page 1: Shayne Heffernan Issues Strong Buy on Indophil ASX:IRN

Indophil Resources NLp

ASX Small to Mid Caps Conferencep

Hong Kong29 October 2009

- Gavan Collery, VP Corporate Affairsy, p

1www.indophil.com

Page 2: Shayne Heffernan Issues Strong Buy on Indophil ASX:IRN

Important noticep

This presentation contains certain statements which may constitute "forward-looking statements". Such statements are only predictions and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties which could cause actual values, results, performance or achievements to differ materially from those expressed, implied or projected in any forward-looking statements. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by Indophil Reso rces NL (the Compan ) that the material contained in this presentation ill be achie ed or pro e to be Resources NL (the Company) that the material contained in this presentation will be achieved or prove to be correct. Except for statutory liability which cannot be excluded, each of the Company, its officers, employees and advisers expressly disclaims any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the material contained in this presentation and excludes all liability whatsoever (including in negligence) for any loss or damage which may be suffered by any person as a consequence of any information in this presentation or any error or omission there suffered by any person as a consequence of any information in this presentation or any error or omission there from. The Company accepts no responsibility to update any person regarding any inaccuracy, omission or change in information in this presentation or any other information made available to a person nor any obligation to furnish the person with any further information.

The information in this presentation that relates to mineral resource estimates is based on information compiled by Dr Phillip Hellman, who is a Fellow of the Australian Institute of Geoscientists. Dr Phillip Hellman is a director of Hellman & Schofield Pty Ltd which is engaged by Sagittarius Mines Inc in which Indophil has a 34.23% interest. Dr Hellman has sufficient experience which is relevant to the style of mineralisation and type of deposit

d id ti d t th ti it hi h h i d t ki t lif C t t P d fi d i under consideration and to the activity which he is undertaking to qualify as a Competent Person as defined in the 2004 Edition of the ‘Australasian Code for Reporting of Exploration Results, Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves’. Dr Hellman has consented to the inclusion of specifically-related matters based on his information (2009).

2

* All currencies in Australian dollars unless stated otherwise.

Page 3: Shayne Heffernan Issues Strong Buy on Indophil ASX:IRN

Our message for today . . .g y

• The global supply-demand outlook for copper

• Tampakan’s relevance in the mix

And hat this means for Indophil• And what this means for Indophil shareholdersshareholders

3www.indophil.com

Page 4: Shayne Heffernan Issues Strong Buy on Indophil ASX:IRN

Copper – supply-demandpp pp y

“The longer-term trading of copper will be based more on fundamentals of supply and demand. But there is a u da e ta s o supp y a d de a d ut t e e s acurrency component to the point that people having a

ti i th l f i b li t negative view on the value of currencies believe one way to hedge yourself, somewhat, is to buy commodities. So copper is benefiting from that.”

Aaron Regent, CEO, Barrick Gold Corp

(interview, 14 October 2009)

4www.indophil.com

Page 5: Shayne Heffernan Issues Strong Buy on Indophil ASX:IRN

Copper – future supply-demandpp pp y

“Copper supply continues to be challenged Copper supply continues to be challenged by the lack of new projects, by ageing mines and by operational issues.”

Richard Adkerson, CEO, Freeport-McMoRan

(interview, 12 October 2009)

5www.indophil.com

Page 6: Shayne Heffernan Issues Strong Buy on Indophil ASX:IRN

Copper – future supply-demandpp pp y

“The simple fact is that the industry as a whole is spending more on copper

l ti th b f d i d li i exploration than before and is delivering fewer resources ”fewer resources.

Eric Finlayson Head of Exploration Rio TintoEric Finlayson, Head of Exploration, Rio Tinto

(Metal Bulletin presentation, June 2009)

6www.indophil.com

Page 7: Shayne Heffernan Issues Strong Buy on Indophil ASX:IRN

World Copper Deposits Ranked by Remaining Contained Copper

120

Remaining Contained Copper

80

100

120

n To

nnes

)

60

80

Cop

per (

Mill

io

20

40

Con

tain

ed

0

Sources: Company Annual Reports and Press Releases (IRN)

7

Page 8: Shayne Heffernan Issues Strong Buy on Indophil ASX:IRN

The world needs to find and develop new copper mines

Primary Cu Demand (mtpa)y ( p )

World consumption over the next 24 years will exceed all of the copper

metal ever mined to date

Copper consumption over the last 23 pp pyears accounted for half of all copper

metal ever mined in the world

8

Source: USGS. Forecast assumes 3% pa growth

Page 9: Shayne Heffernan Issues Strong Buy on Indophil ASX:IRN

China needs a secure supply of copper

Primary Cu Demand (mtpa)y ( p )

By 2033 China will be consuming half of the world’s copper

CHINA

half of the world s copper

Rest of the World

9

Source: USGS. Forecast assumes 8% pa growth rate for China to 2015 and 4% pa thereafter

Page 10: Shayne Heffernan Issues Strong Buy on Indophil ASX:IRN

Half of the world’s copper reserves are in South America… and almost half of the demand is in Asia + India (and growing !)

World Reserve Base in 2008 = 1100 Mt Cu

… and almost half of the demand is in Asia + India (and growing !)World Demand in 2008 = 18.1 Mt Cu

2 4%

3

22%4%

6%

2 4% 2

6%

4%

24%

11%

South Korea

Japan

22%

27% 7%5%

3% China

2

4% 2

11%4%

2

2

4%

9%

SE Asia (Other)4%

2

1

3%South America (total) Africa (total)

233% 9% 1

10

Sources: USGS and MinEx Consulting

Page 11: Shayne Heffernan Issues Strong Buy on Indophil ASX:IRN

A supply gap is opening up post 2015

Mtpa of Copper Additional new Greenfield

Cathode Demand

Mtpa of Copper Additional new Greenfield Mines are required by 2015

SUPPLY GAP

Reactivations, Mine Life E t i & E i (70%)

Probable Greenfield Projects

Base Case Mine Production

Extensions & Expansions (70%)

Base Case Mine Production

11

Source: Derived from BHPB Marketing Briefing Sept 2009, based on data from Brook Hunt

Page 12: Shayne Heffernan Issues Strong Buy on Indophil ASX:IRN

Copper prices: 1900-2009

Real Copper Price (June 2009 US$/lb)

12

Sources: USGS, LME and US Dept of Labor

Page 13: Shayne Heffernan Issues Strong Buy on Indophil ASX:IRN

The business cycle remains a fact of life for copper

Real Copper Price (June 2009 US$/lb)The average Recession

Recessions are becoming less frequent

The average Recession lasts 15 months

Prices stabilize / recover when the Recession ends

Grea

t Dep

ress

ion

1930

G

13

Sources: USGS, LME, US Dept of Labor and National Bureau of Economic Research

Page 14: Shayne Heffernan Issues Strong Buy on Indophil ASX:IRN

Tampakan – history

1992 Tampakan discovered by WMC

1997 WMC completes 1st Scoping Study and Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS)

Dec 2001 Columbio FTAA (Tampakan Project) transferred to Indophil( p j ) p

May 2003 Infill and delineation drilling program commences at Tampakan

A il 2005 D t il d $27 PFS t T kApril 2005 Detailed $27m PFS commences at Tampakan

April 2006 Tampakan resource upgrade (1.97Bt @ 0.6% copper)

Sept 2006 Indophil completes 2nd PFS

April 2007 Xstrata Copper exercise option over TampakanApril 2007 Xstrata Copper exercise option over Tampakan

April 2009 Final XPFS completed by Xstrata. Move to Final Feasibility

14

Oct 2009 New resource upgrade announced (2.4Bt @ 0.6% copper)

Page 15: Shayne Heffernan Issues Strong Buy on Indophil ASX:IRN

Indophil - corporate information

ASX listed: code IRN (S&P/ASX 300)( )

Issued shares: 393.13 million

M k t it li ti A$393 HK$2 828 (@ A100 )Market capitalisation: A$393m or HK$2,828m (@ A100cps)

Top 20 shareholders = 69%, top 50 shareholders = 77%*

Cash at hand: Approx A$50 million

Directors:Directors:N/E Chairman - Brian PhillipsCEO/MD - Richard Laufmann N/E Director - Tony RobbinsN/E Director - Kyle Wightman

15

* Xstrata Queensland holds a 19.99% stake in Indophil Resources NL

Page 16: Shayne Heffernan Issues Strong Buy on Indophil ASX:IRN

Indophil – recent share price performance

16

Page 17: Shayne Heffernan Issues Strong Buy on Indophil ASX:IRN

Indophil’s Tampakan holding (34.23%) - status

CAs signed

Data room openedData room opened

Field visits conducted

Process and progress confidential

Comfortable with process and progress

Discussions now at an advanced stageDiscussions now at an advanced stage

17

Page 18: Shayne Heffernan Issues Strong Buy on Indophil ASX:IRN

Leading into 2009 . . . it was a LONG year!19 March 2008 Indophil bids for Lion Selection (lapsed on 7 July)

15 May 2008 Xstrata announced $1.00 per share cash offer for Indophil

20 June 2008 Crosby Consortium (Crosby Capital, the Alsons Corporation and Richard Laufmann –Indophil’s CEO and MD) announced intention to make a $1 28 per share cash offerIndophil s CEO and MD) announced intention to make a $1.28 per share cash offerIndophil’s Independent Directors unanimously recommended the Crosby Consortium offer, in the absence of a superior offer

22 June 2008 Xstrata increased its offer to $1 28 per share matching the Crosby Consortium offer22 June 2008 Xstrata increased its offer to $1.28 per share, matching the Crosby Consortium offer

15 July 2008 Xstrata offer opened (and closed on 29 August 2008)

5 August 2008 Stanhill Resources (the bid vehicle for Crosby Consortium) announced it was assessing an “enhancement” to its offer

22 Sept 2008 Stanhill offer lapsed

29 Sept 2008 Memorandum of Intent signed with Alsons Corporation (on 11 September, Alsons Corporation made an offer to purchase Indophil’s interest in Tampakan) – still in place

18

12 Nov 2008 General Meeting of Indophil Shareholders. One resolution for consideration –Overwhelming Shareholder support received – authority to act granted

Page 19: Shayne Heffernan Issues Strong Buy on Indophil ASX:IRN

Tampakan in focus – location

Maguindanao

C l bi

LakeBuluan

Davao GulfSultan Kudarat

Columbio Matanao

Kiblawan

Columbio

Davao Del Sur

Korondal

Tampakan

TampakanCopper - Gold

Project

Columbio FTAA

Manila

20KMSarangani

SouthCotabato

MINDANAO

Sarangani Bay

MINDANAO

TampakanCopper - Gold

Project General Santos City Province BdysMain roads

19

Page 20: Shayne Heffernan Issues Strong Buy on Indophil ASX:IRN

Tampakan – At a glance (world class)

Major high-sulphidation copper-gold deposit superimposedMajor high sulphidation copper gold deposit superimposed on a pre-existing porphyry copper-gold (Cu-Au) system

Largest undeveloped copper gold deposit in SE Asia AndLargest undeveloped copper-gold deposit in SE Asia. And now one of the best and most realistic new copper developments anywhere in the worldp y

Discovered by WMC Resources in 1992. The subject of an Extended Pre-Feasibility Study (XPFS) by Xstrata:Extended Pre Feasibility Study (XPFS) by Xstrata:

Indicative findings reported 19 Feb 2009;

Finalised and detailed XPFS reported 22 April 2009; andFinalised and detailed XPFS reported 22 April 2009; and

Commitment to Final Feasibility Study, Bechtel appointment 26 June 2009

20

Page 21: Shayne Heffernan Issues Strong Buy on Indophil ASX:IRN

Detailed findings of the XPFS (1)

Confirmation of a world-class large-scale project with aConfirmation of a world class, large scale project with a 2.4 billion tonnes mineral resource base containing 13.5Mt copper and 15.8Moz gold

A Stage One mining and milling rate of 44Mtpa, leading into a Stage Two rate of 66Mtpa after three years. This g p yStage Two rate is more than double the rate proposed in the September 2006 PFS conducted by Indophil

Life of mine average production (first 20 years) of:Life-of-mine average production (first 20 years) of:340,000 tonnes per annum of copper (contained in concentrate);

350,000 ounces per annum of gold on average; and350,000 ounces per annum of gold on average; andSignificant production of molybdenum

21

Page 22: Shayne Heffernan Issues Strong Buy on Indophil ASX:IRN

Detailed findings of the XPFS (2)

Initial capital outlay of US$5.2 billionp y $(inc infrastructure and US$800m contingency)

A milling recovery rate of:60 80% f ld60-80% for gold; 83-90% for copper;Copper concentrate grade of 37-34%;With scope for improvement across the board

A highly-attractive operating strip ratio of 0.75:1 (waste:ore)

A C1 operating cash cost base of less than US46c/lb of copper after gold credits (but still not factoring in molybdenum credits)molybdenum credits)

An NPV (@ US$2.20/lb Cu) of:US$1.2bn (post-tax 10% discount rate)

22

$ (p )US$2.2bn (post-tax 8% discount rate)

Page 23: Shayne Heffernan Issues Strong Buy on Indophil ASX:IRN

Final Feasibility Study (FFS) underway

X t t d t it t FFSXstrata and partners commit to FFS on26 June 2009

Key details:− Cost: US$74m (IRN’s share US$28m)

− Completion date: 2nd quarter 2010p q

− FFS Management: Bechtel as lead engineer

Fi t d ti E l 2016− First production: Early 2016

23

Page 24: Shayne Heffernan Issues Strong Buy on Indophil ASX:IRN

Tampakan Resource Estimate (Oct 2009)

@ 0.3% copper cut-off grade

Mt Cu(%)

Au(g/t)

Cu(Mt)

Au(Moz)

@ 0.3% copper cut off grade

Measured (M) 780 0.71 0.28 5.5 7.0

Indicated (Ind) 890 0.55 0.19 4.9 5.5

Inferred (Inf) 700 0.5 0.2 3.1 3.3

Combined: M+Ind+Inf 2,400 0.6 0.2 13.5 15.8

24

Note: Related ‘Competent Person’ Statement available on ASX and Indophil’s website, 20 Oct 2009. Discrepancies due to rounding as per JORC 2004 guidelines. Price assumptions: Copper US$1.80/lb and gold US$700/oz.

Page 25: Shayne Heffernan Issues Strong Buy on Indophil ASX:IRN

Tampakan Project A potential low cost producer

Current Copper Producers - Cost Performance (C1* after by-product credits)

A potential low cost producer

2.50

1st Quartile 2nd Quartile 3rd Quartile 4th Quartile

b

1.50

osts

-U

S$ /

lb

Tampakan

0.50

C1

Co

0 4,000 8,000 12,000

Cumulative Copper Production - ktpa

25

-0.50

• Negative C1 costs cut at –US$0.50/lb copperSource: Indophil XPFS-TOS and Copyright Brook Hunt 2009 Data

Page 26: Shayne Heffernan Issues Strong Buy on Indophil ASX:IRN

Tampakan Project A highly attractive strip ratio

8

Future Copper Projects Stripping Ratio

A highly attractive strip ratio

8

1st Quartile 2nd Quartile 3rd Quartile 4th Quartile

6

o

4

rippi

ng R

atio

2

St

Tampakan

-0 2 4 6 8 10

Cumulative Production of Copper

26

Cumulative Production of Copper(Mtpa)

Source: CRU | Analysis; Copper: the Long Term Outlook - 2008 Edition and Indophil XPFS-TOS 2009

Page 27: Shayne Heffernan Issues Strong Buy on Indophil ASX:IRN

Tampakan timeline

• FFS completed (target) March 2010

• ECC application Sept 2010ECC application Sept 2010

• CP FPIC March 2011

• PS development Dec 2011

• Resettlement (staged) August 2012

• DMF assumed approved Sept 2012

• Construction program Oct 2012 / Dec 2015Construction program Oct 2012 / Dec 2015

• Commissioning finalised March 2016

27

Page 28: Shayne Heffernan Issues Strong Buy on Indophil ASX:IRN

Conclusions

Tampakan is ‘world class’ – a Tier 1 project:With Xstrata as a partner and project manager

A detailed and completed XPFS, rolling into FFS:for a project that is realistic low-cost and long-lifefor a project that is realistic, low cost and long lifewith an emerging molybdenum credit

With commitment to FFS completion by second quarter 2010With commitment to FFS completion by second quarter 2010

Logical next step: construction and production

At a time when copper demand is forecast to outstrip supply

28

Page 29: Shayne Heffernan Issues Strong Buy on Indophil ASX:IRN

Conclusions ...continued

In a ‘new order’ following the global financial crisis, Indophil controls the destiny of its strategic interest in Tampakan

Indophil’s key responsibility is to all of its shareholders – there is a genuine value to be realised in Indophil’s interest in Tampakan

controls the destiny of its strategic interest in Tampakan

Indophil can leverage the Tampakan asset or trade it for cash (subject to the restrictions contained in the underlying Tampakan contractual documentation)

Surprise, surprise – the world has not ended:What was ‘good value’ is now relatively CHEAPBase metals demand has returned – BIG TIME ! Copper is central to human development

With the comfort of a robust balance sheet, Indophil is well positioned to:p pExtract maximum advantage from its key asset Continue to meet its commitments under the Tampakan agreementsProvide a healthy return to shareholders

29

Provide a healthy return to shareholders

Page 30: Shayne Heffernan Issues Strong Buy on Indophil ASX:IRN

Thank youy

30www.indophil.com