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HISTORY OF SHARE KHAN SHAREKHAN LIMITED (SSKI Pvt.Ltd.) was promoted by Mr. Shripal S. Morakhiya and Mr. Shreyas S. Morakhiya in 1922 the name of company was changed from SSKI Investor Services Private Limited to Sharekhan Private Limited on 26 th October 2005. The company became a public limited company on 26 th October, 2005. Accordingly the company’s name changed to share khan limited. Share khan is currently amongst India’s largest broking house. It is member of stock exchange, Mumbai. It is depository participant of the national securities. Depository limited (NSDL) and central depository services (India) limited. Its business includes stock broking, depository services, portfolio management and derivatives. Company’s mission and vision: MISSION To reposition share khan as a technologically superior web enabled brokerage firm with massive offline presence. To highlight its will and ability to be a long term player on account of its pedigree. To project share khan as an authority in the retail stock trading business. VISION

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Page 1: Share Khan Brokerage

HISTORY OF SHARE KHAN

SHAREKHAN LIMITED (SSKI Pvt.Ltd.) was promoted by Mr. Shripal S.

Morakhiya and Mr. Shreyas S. Morakhiya in 1922 the name of company

was changed from SSKI Investor Services Private Limited to Sharekhan

Private Limited on 26th October 2005. The company became a public

limited company on 26th October, 2005. Accordingly the company’s name

changed to share khan limited.

Share khan is currently amongst India’s largest broking house. It is

member of stock exchange, Mumbai. It is depository participant of the

national securities. Depository limited (NSDL) and central depository

services (India) limited. Its business includes stock broking, depository

services, portfolio management and derivatives.

Company’s mission and vision:

MISSION

To reposition share khan as a technologically superior web enabled

brokerage firm with massive offline presence.

To highlight its will and ability to be a long term player on account

of its pedigree.

To project share khan as an authority in the retail stock trading

business.

VISION

The vision of the share khan ltd. Is “To empower the investors to

make better investment decision through quality advice & superior

service.”

Page 2: Share Khan Brokerage

Sharekhan has always believed in collaborating with like-minded

Corporate into forming strategic associations for mutual benefit

relationships" says Jaideep Arora, Director - Sharekhan Limited. Sharekhan

is also about focus. Sharekhan does not claim expertise in too many

things.

Sharekhan's expertise lies in stocks and that's what he talks about with

authority. So when he says that investing in stocks should not be confused

with trading in stocks or a portfolio-based strategy is better than betting

on a single horse, it is something that is spoken with years of focused

learning and experience in the’ stock markets. And these beliefs are

reflected in everything Sharekhan does for us!

Share khan has ability to transfer funds from most banks like ICICI Direct,

HDFC etc., so investor not really needs to open an account with a

particular bank as it can establish link with most modern banks.

The company’s core competency lies in the retail distribution with large

network of branches and sub brokers/ authorized person. Its strength lays

in its investment research capabilities.

PROMOTERS AND DIRECTORS

The shareholder of SSKI investor services Pvt. Ltd. Are Mr. Shripal

Morakhiya, Mr.Shreyas Morakhiya foreign private, equity fund holder and

key employees of the company. The key promoter of the company is

Mr.Shripal Morakhiya who as on March 31,2005 along with his family owns

55.47% of paid up capital of the company.

Page 3: Share Khan Brokerage

DIRECTORS’ NAME

1. Mr. Shripal S. Morakhiya

2. Mr. Shreyas S. Morakhiya

3. Mr. Tarun p. Shah

4. Mr. Shankar vailaya

5. Mr. Jaydeep Arora

6. Mr. Shankar narayan

Area and Branches of sharekhan

Sharekhan, India’s leading stock broker is the retail arm of SSKI, an

organization with over eight decades of stock market experience. With

more than150 share shops in 80 cities, and India’s premium portal,

www.sharekhan.com. We reach out to customer like no one else.

Sharekhan’s branches are in India’s most of cities like Bangalore,

Chennai, jodhpur, Kolkata, Delhi, pune. Rajkot, vadodara, Surat and

Navsari etc.

Page 4: Share Khan Brokerage

Services of Sharekhan

Share khan is one of India's leading financial services companies. Share

khan provides a complete life-cycle of investment solution in Equities,

Derivatives, Commodities, IPO, Mutual Funds, Depository Services,

Portfolio Management Services and Insurance.

Sharekhan also offer personalized wealth management services for High

Net worth individuals. With a physical presence in over 300 cities of India

through more than 800 "Share Shops", and an online presence through

Sharekhan.com, India's premier online destination, Sharekhan reach out

to more than 800,000 trading customers.

There are main four type services provided by sharekhan.

A. PMS

B. Mutual fund

C. Commodities

D. Equity

A. PMS[Portfolio management services]

A Portfolio is bundle or group of securities. Creation of portfolio helps to

reduce risk without sacrificing return.

Portfolio management is a process encompassing many activities aimed

at optimizing the investments of one’s fund.

In this service, sharekhan offers handling portfolio to the clients. The

minimum amount which is required to open an account is Rs. 5,00,000/-

after opening the account all transaction of the client are done by

sharekhan.

Page 5: Share Khan Brokerage

B. Mutual fund

Mutual fund is pool of money that is invested according to common

investment objective by an Asset management company (AMC).There are

3 broad categories of fund in Indian market – Money market, debt, equity.

There are two ways of making money from mutual fund through

Dividend.

Capital appreciation.

C.Commodity

A tangible item that may be bought or sold. Something produced for

commerce, is called Commodity.

Commodities are the things of value of uniform quality. Which are

produced in large quantity by many producer.

A commodity means any product manufactured or grown. There are

different commodities like gold, silver, copper, crude oil, sugar, wheat etc.

one of the characteristics of a commodity good is that its price is

determined as a function of its market as a whole.

The 3 major national commodity exchanges are:

1) National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange Limited(NCDCX)

2) Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd (MCX)

3) National Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd

NCDCX: located in Mumbai, is a public limited company. This is an online

multi-commodity exchange. Transaction of commodities like sugar, wheat,

jeera etc. are done through NCDEX market.

Page 6: Share Khan Brokerage

MCX: MCX is an independent multi commodity exchange, with permanent

recognition from Indian Government. Transactions of commodities like

gold, silver, crude oil etc. are done through MCX market.

NMCEIL - National Multi Commodity Exchange of India Limited is the 1st

de-mutualized, Electronic Multi-Commodity Exchange of India.

D.Equity

Equity means equity or ordinary shares, which represents the ownership

position in a company. In this the trading of shares is done . there are two

main types of stock exchange in which trading of equity is done, i.e NSE

and BSE. Equity consists of 3 parts.

1) Off-line

2) On-line

3) F & O

Off-line Trading: The off line trading is done in both NSEand BSE. Off-

line trading it is the setting where both the parties buyer and seller are

known to each other like internal trading. In process of off-line trading,

directly DP (Depository participant) made entry. i.e. debited to investor

a/c and credited to buyer’s a/c as per the information giver by seller.

On-line Trading: On-line trading is done only in one exchange NSE. In

on-line seller does not know who is going to be buyer. Seller simply

informs to the sub broker to sell some amount of shares. Than sub broker

sells it in ti the market. In on-line trading. DP (Depository participant)

made one entry in investor’s a/c and credited to buyer’s a/c. after being

informed by sub broker there are 2 types of a/c in on-line trading.

Page 7: Share Khan Brokerage

Speed trade account: Speed trade is web trading product ideal for

active traders and jobbers who transact frequently during a day’s

trading session to capitalize on intraday price movement. Speed

trede gives active traders and jobbers are edge with real time

access to the market.

Classic account: sharekhan classic account allows to client to trade

through their website and is suitable for the retail investor who is

risk adverse and hence prefers to invest in stocks or who does not

trade too frequently.

Future & Option: future option is a part of derivatives and derivatives

are underlying in equity. Future and Option. future is an agreement

between two parties to buy and sell an asset at a certain time in the

future at a certain price. While option gives the buyer an option to buy or

sell an underlying asset at a predetermined price on or before specified

data in future.

Other services provided by sharekhan as follow:

Free access to investment advice from sharekhan’s research team.

Daily research report and market review

Pre-market report

Daily trading call based on technical analysis

Personalized advice

Live market information.

Page 8: Share Khan Brokerage

Literature Review

The role of information in pricing of stock is an issue heavily discussed in

areas of finance, economic, and accounting. Few theories were forwarded

including that of fama (1991) in the efficient market theory. Generally it is

known that prices react to the arrival of new information. trading volume

is viewed as the critical price of information which indicates the

movement of prices.

Volatility is one of the best phenomenon without which stock markets will

loose its charm. It is the tendency of fluctuation of market indices over a

period of time; more is the fluctuation, higher is the volatility. The ups and

downs of stock prices is what that adds spice to the market behavior. This

see-sawing effect has its own implications, both good and bad. Good,

because prudent investors taking advantage buy on dips and sell on highs

for profit booking. On the flip side, greater volatility lowers investor’s

confidence in the market prompting them to transfer their investment in

less risky options due to unexpected market behavior.

A statistical measure of the dispersion of returns for a given security or

market index. Volatility can either be measured by using the standard

deviation or variance between returns from that same security or market

index. Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security.

Investopedia explains Volatility

In other words, volatility refers to the amount of uncertainty or risk about

the size of changes in a security's value. A higher volatility means that a

security's value can potentially be spread out over a larger range

of values.

Page 9: Share Khan Brokerage

This means that the price of the security can change dramatically over a

short time period in either direction. A lower volatility means that a

security's value does not fluctuate dramatically, but changes in value at a

steady peace over the period of time.

One measure of the relative volatility of a particular stock to the market is

its beta. A beta approximates the overall volatility of a security's returns

against the returns of a index return.

Having observed the past major events of volatility, one can realize the

root cause as “unanticipated information” breaking out in the market.

When this news stabilizes, volatility vanishes because the uncertainty

related dies out.

There have been number of empirical studies in developed markets that

provide evidence on the relationship between trading volume and stock

returns. Crouch (1970) studied the relationship between daily trading

volume and daily absolute changes of market index and individual stocks

and found positive correlation between them. Rogalski (1978) used

monthly stock data and Epps (1975, 1977) used transactions data and

found a positive contemporaneous correlation between trading volume

and absolute returns.

Traditional literature on the contemporaneous relation between volume

and price showed that there exist a positive relation between volume and

absolute price change price volatility in both equity and future market.

Developed the dispersion of beliefs/expectation as the additional volatility

and additional expected volume associated with noisy information as well

as developing other trading behavior relationships in the future markets.

Page 10: Share Khan Brokerage

-Hars and Airv (1993) and Shalen

(1993)

Volume- volatility relationship has long attracted the attention of many

financial economists, which makes contribution not only to a well

established steam of empirical financial studies but also turn out to be

relevant in a broader historical economic perspective. Reviewed previous

studies on the volatility and trading volume and positive correlation

between volatility and volume.

-Karpoof

(1987)

Page 11: Share Khan Brokerage

RESEARCH

METHODOLOGY

Page 12: Share Khan Brokerage

What is research?

”Research is systematic process of collecting analyzing information in

order to increase our understanding of the phenomena about which we

are concerned or interested”.

“Research is systematic effort to gain new knowledge

Research is a ‘scientific and systematic search for potential information on

a specific topic. It is an art of scientific investigation.

Objectives of study

Each activity in human life is based on certain objective. the principal

objective of preparing this project report on “Volatility in Indian share

market” at sharekhan ltd. The other objectives are as follows:

To know significant correlation between share price and Trading

volume.

To know the fluctuation in share price and use various techniques

and statistical tools for the measurement of risk.

To know the fluctuation in high-low, open-close price and measure

the volatility.

To measure high-low price volatility use new method of chainkin’s

volatility.

Types of research design

There are main three types research design, which are as follows:

1) Exploratory Research Design

Page 13: Share Khan Brokerage

2) Descriptive Research Design

3) Causal Research Design

From above three types of research design select the descriptive research

design for my project work.

Descriptive research design is rigid design. Researcher does not change

the focus of the study. In very rare cases, it can be change. Here are the

researcher is the experienced person.

Data collection

There are main two sources of collecting information which are as follows:

1) Primary Data Collection

2) Secondary Data Collection

Primary Data:

This type of data does not exist anywhere. Researcher collects this data at

very first time and also use first time. This type of data collected through

survey, observation, personal interview etc. these data are used when the

report is to be made for the exploratory research.

Secondary Data:

Secondary data are those data which are already been found by someone

and are already been used for another purpose. This type of data already

exists in somewhere researcher can directly use this data. it is easy to

collect secondary data compared to primary data.

Here, the project is based on “volatility in Indian share market” of

sharekhan ltd. In this research project use the data from the internet &

Page 14: Share Khan Brokerage

books. The data from book were sufficient enough to conduct a project

work. And some part of data was personally collected from the discussion

with the member of sharekhan so project work can be easily done.

Time duration for the project:

1st June to 31st July 2010

8 Weeks

Limitation of the study

1)A student is always studying and thus with her limited available

knowledge and capacity.

2) A precise of anything take time and thus here the time period was

of two months only which is not sufficient to complete project work.

3) The report is based on certain available data only.

Page 15: Share Khan Brokerage

DATA ANALYSIS

AND

Page 16: Share Khan Brokerage

INTERPRETATIO

N

DATA INTERPRETATION

The study is based on the daily stock returns as well as trading volumes

obtained from the national stock exchange. The series of stock returns

computed from daily stock prices of the nifty index for the period of 5

years from April 2005 to March 2010 and take top 10 Company which has

high capitalization to measure volatility.

MEASUREMENT OF VOLATILITY

In simple words volatility means “risk” volatility is measured by standard

deviation, beta, skewness etc. volatility is associated with risk and return.

Return (finance) the financial term for profit or loss derived from an

investment. Return (economics) the benefit distributed to the owner of the

factor of production. A person making an investment expects to get some

return from the investment in the future. but as the future is uncertain, so

Page 17: Share Khan Brokerage

is the future expected return. It is the uncertainty associated with the

returns from an investment that introduces risk in to an investment.

Return=R1−Rt−1

Rt−1

∗100

Volatility and standard deviation

For the more technically-minded, Standard Deviation is “the basic

statistical measure of the dispersion of a population of data observations

around a mean”.

In trading language it’s an indication of price volatility; it measures how

far the closing price is from the average closing price over a set period.

The

greater the difference between the closing prices and the average price,

the higher the standard deviation will be. The closer the closing prices are

to the average price, the lower the standard deviation .the relative rate at

which the price of security moves up and down. Volatility is found by

calculating the annualized standard deviation or daily changes in the

price.

Volatility = standard deviation of closing price [for n periods] /

average closing price [for n periods]

σ=√∑ (X−μ)2

N

The variance and standard deviation measure the extent of variability of

possible returns from the expected return. Several other measure such as

a range ,semi-variance and mean absolute deviation have been used to

indicate measure risk but standard deviation has been the most popularly

accepted measure .the standard deviation or variance however provides a

Page 18: Share Khan Brokerage

measurement of total risk associated with security. Total risk comprises

of two components namely systematic risk and unsystematic risk.

Coefficient of variation: A statistical measure of the dispersion of data

points in a data series around the mean. It is calculated as follows.

The coefficient of variation essentially is a relative comparison of standard

deviation to its mean. In the investing world, the coefficient of variation

allows you to determine how much volatility (risk) you are assuming

in comparison to the amount of return you can expect from your

investment. In simple language, the lower the ratio of standard deviation

to mean return, the better your risk-return trade-off. Sometimes financial

investor use the coefficient of variation as measurement of risk.

Coefficient of variation tell us about the risk of stock that standard

deviation does not tell.

Variance: The variance of a random variable is a measure of its statistical

dispersion, indicating how far from the expected value The variance is the

average of squared deviation about the arithmetic mean for a set of

numbers It describes how far values lie from the mean. In particular, the

variance is one of the moments of a distribution.

σ 2=∑¿¿

In research 10 company’s 5 year data and calculate standard deviation,

variance, Coefficient of variation, cumulative return, and average return

as below.

Reliance Industries - Year 01-04-2005 to 31-03-2010

Page 19: Share Khan Brokerage

Year Averag

e

return

Cumulative

return

Standar

d

deviatio

n

Variance Coefficien

t of

variation

2005-

06

0.00164 0.41071 0.02818 0.00049 13.5058

2006-

07

0.00242 0.60400 0.02294 0.00048 9.04614

2007-

08

0.00233 0.58593 0.02566 0.00065 10.9961

2008-

09

-0.0008 -0.36338 0.03857 0.00148 -43.8415

2009-

10

-0.0002 -0.06127 0.04210 0.00177 -167.666

Average return get from company is 0.1% and cumulative return is

41.07%. Risk and return is associated with each other and

associated total risk is 2.21%. Variance indicates that 0.049% value

is dispersed from mean value in year 2005-06.

Average return get from company is -0.08% and cumulative return

is -36.33% means in this security getting loss not get profit and

total risk is also high 3.8%.variance indicates that 0.14% value is

dispersed from the mean value in year 2008-09.

Average return get from the company is -0.02% and cumulative

return is -6.12%. Cumulative return (loss) is less than year 2008-09

but associated risk is 4.2% which is highest in comparison of all

year.0.17% value is dispersed from mean in year 2009-10. In first 3

year higher the risk higher the return.

Page 20: Share Khan Brokerage

Coefficient of variation can be useful In comparing standard

deviation to its mean. Standard deviation is 13.50%of the mean in

2005-06, -43.84% in 2008-09 and -167.67% in 2008-09 .it is

indicates that more risky year is 2008-09.

Reliance industry’s share price is more fluctuate in year 2008-09

and 2009-10 indicates higher volatility in this two year compare to

all year.

ONGC LTD. - Year 01-04-2005 to 31-03-2010

Year Averag

e

return

Cumulative

return

Standar

d

deviatio

n

Variance Coefficien

t of

variation

2005-

06

0.00172 0.43167 0.01639 0.00026 9.98256

2006-

07

-0.0011 -0.27418 0.02972 0.00088 -26.9967

2007-

08

0.00081 0.20468 0.02781 0.00077 34.1103

2008-

09

-0.0004 -0.36338 0.03052 0.00093 -64.517

2009-

10

0.00168 0.410846 0.02401 0.00057 14.2603

Average return get from the company is 0.17% and cumulative

return is 43.16% associated total risk is 1.6%.variance indicates that

0.02% value is dispersed from mean value in year 2005-06.

As per the coefficient variance indicate that high risk in year 2007-

08 and get 20.46% return and 2.78% risk in this year. so in this year

high risk and volatility.

Page 21: Share Khan Brokerage

As per the standard deviation and variance more fluctuation in

share price in year 2006-07 and 2008-10 and highest standard

deviation in this two year compare to all year.

Coefficient variation is high in year 2006-07 and also total risk is

2.9%.. as per the standard deviation and variance 2008-09 year has

a 3% risk and 0.09% value dispersed from mean. But as per

coefficient of variation indicates 2006-07 has -26.99% risk which is

highest risk compare to all.

As per standard deviation and variance in 2008-09 year high risk but

coefficient indicates that in year 2006-07 high risk means in year

2006-07 and 2008-09 has high volatility.

NTPC LTD. - Year 01-04-2005 to 31-03-2010

Year Averag

e

return

Cumulative

return

Standar

d

deviatio

n

Variance Coefficien

t of

variation

2005-

06

0.0018 0.45695 0.01578 0.00024 8.633476

2006-

07

0.0006 0.16620 0.02057 0.00042 30.8252

2007-

08

0.0015 0.38898 0.03095 0.00095 19.97492

2008-

09

-0.0082 -0.36338 0.02787 0.00077 -31.67599

2009-

10

0.00074 0.18094 0.01803 0.00032 24.31448

Page 22: Share Khan Brokerage

Average return get from the company is 0.18% and cumulative

return is 45.65% associated total risk is 1.6%.variance indicates that

0.024% value is dispersed from mean value in year 2005-06.

In year 2005-06 getting high return and low risk as per the standard

deviation and coefficient variation. It indicates that in this year has

low volatility compared to all year. in year 2006-07 getting low

return and high risk. As per the risk and return year 2006-07 has

high volatility.

As per the standard deviation and variance more fluctuation in

share price in year 2007-08 and 2008-09 and highest standard

deviation in this two year compare to all year.

Coefficient variation is high in year 2008-09 and also total risk is

2.7%. as per the standard deviation and variance 2007-08 year has

a 3.09% risk and 0.09% value dispersed from mean. But as per

coefficient of variation indicates 2008-09 has -31.67% risk which is

highest compare to all.

As per standard deviation and variance in 2007-08 year high risk but

coefficient indicates that in year 2008-09 high risk means in year

2007-08 and 2008-09 has a high volatility.

INFOSYSTCH- Year 01-04-2005 to 31-03-2010

Year Averag

e

return

Cumulative

return

Standar

d

deviatio

n

Variance Coefficien

t of

variation

2005-

06

0.00128 0.321794 0.01648 0.000271 12.81016

2006-

07

-

0.00057

-0.142067 0.037944 0.001439 -66.5046

2007-

08

-

0.00108

-0.271137 0.023112 0.000534 -21.39555

2008- - -0.363388 0.029098 0.000846 -26.69626

Page 23: Share Khan Brokerage

09 0.00109

2009-

10

0.00315 0.7411566 0.022099 0.000488 7.010617

Average return and cumulative return get from the company is

negative in year of 2006-07, 2007-08, 2008-09 means in this 3 year

getting loss from the company. Associated total risk is 3.7%, 2.3%

and 2.9% in respective year.

As per the standard deviation high risk in year 2006-07 and variance

indicates that 0.14% value is dispersed from mean which is high

variation compare to all year.

Coefficient variation indicate that in year 2007-08 has high risk as

per the standard deviation 2006-07 year is risky year but as per the

coefficient of variation 2007-08 year is more risky.

As per standard deviation and variance in 2006-07 year high risk

but coefficient indicates that in year 2007-08 high risk means in

year 2006-07 and 2007-08 has a high volatility. As per the risk and

return 2005-06 year has high volatility.

TATA consultancy - Year 01-04-2005 to 31-03-2010

Year Average

return

Cumulativ

e return

Standard

deviatio

n

Varianc

e

Coefficien

t of

variation

2005-

06

0.001268 0.317112 0.017682 0.000312 13.94020

2006-

07

-0.00070 -0.176581 0.039081

1

0.001527 -55.10894

2007-

08

-0.00141 -0.359226 0.022070 0.000487 -15.42130

2008-

09

-0.00103 -0.25116 0.036023 0.001297 -34.85297

Page 24: Share Khan Brokerage

2009-

10

0.002645 0.645464 0.041365

8

0.001711 15.63719

In this script as per the standard deviation in year 2009-10 has high

risk 4.13%. And also in this year high getting high average return

0.26% and high cumulative return 64.54%. In year 2009-10 Higher

the risk higher the return. Variance indicates that 0.17% value

dispersed from mean which is highest compare to all year.

As per the coefficient variation high risk in year 2007-08 and also in

year 2009-10 but 2007-08 year is more risky year compare to all

year.

As per the risk and return in year 2009-10 has high volatility. And as

per the standard deviation and coefficient variation 2007-08 an

2008-09 year has high volatility.

STATE Bank of India - Year 01-04-2005 to 31-03-2010

Year Averag

e

return

Cumulative

return

Standar

d

deviatio

n

Variance Coefficien

t of

variation

2005-

06

0.00160 0.400898 0.016096 0.000259 10.03752

2006-

07

0.00036 0.0897795 0.022563 0.000509 62.5778

2007-

08

0.00227 0.5718788 0.027643 0.000764 12.1330

2008-

09

-0.0009 -0.242656 0.036641 0.001342 -36.6934

2009-

10

0.00311 0.760963 0.028151 0.000792 9.02654

Page 25: Share Khan Brokerage

As per the standard deviation high risk 3.66% in year 2008-09 and

coefficient variation also indicates high risk -36.69% in this year. So

in this year has high volatility.

In this security gets return in all year except 2008-09.In year 2009-

10 getting high cumulative return 76% and risk 2.81% indicates

higher the risk higher the return. As per the coefficient of variation

and return 2006-07 year is more risky because in this year high risk

and getting low return.

In this script year 2008-09 and 2006-07 has a high volatility.

BHEL - Year 01-04-2005 to 31-03-2010

Year Averag

e

return

Cumulative

return

Standard

deviation

Variance Coefficien

t of

variation

2005-

06

0.00430 1.076128 0.019232 0.000369 4.467921

2006-

07

0.00034 0.085303 0.024965 0.000623 72.87506

2007-

08

0.00083 0.201058 0.042821 0.001833 51.31123

2008-

09

-

0.00064

-0.157702 0.035599 0.001267 -54.8552

2009-

10

0.00215 0.526130 0.023785 0.000565 11.03080

In this script in year 2005-06 has low risk 1.9% as per the standard

deviation and coefficient variation also indicates low risk 4.46% and

get high average return 0.43% and cumulative return 1.07% which

highest compare to all year. It is indicating that 2005-06 best year

and low volatility.

In this security gets return in all year except 2008-09. As per the

risk and return in year 2009-10 has high return and high risk but as

Page 26: Share Khan Brokerage

per the coefficient of variation in year 2006-07 has high risk and

getting low return compare to all year indicates high volatility.

In this script year 2006-07 and 2008-09 has a high volatility.

ITC LTD. - Year 01-04-2005 to 31-03-2010

Year Averag

e

return

Cumulative

return

Standard

deviation

Variance Coefficien

t of

variation

2005-

06

-0.0008 -0.205876 0.061157 0.003740 -74.2654

2006-

07

-

0.00077

-0.193685 0.022296 0.000497 -28.6636

2007-

08

0.00152 0.381850 0.023841 0.000568 15.6718

2008-

09

-0.0001 -0.04321 0.023393 0.000547 -131.533

2009-

10

0.00169 0.412510 0.022255 0.000495 13.1640

In this script high volatility in year 2005-06. In this year total risk is

6.11% which is highest compare to all company , all year and

variance indicates that 0.37% value dispersed from the mean and

also not get profit return is negative in this year.

As per the risk and return in year 2009-10 has high return and low

risk compare to all year and coefficient variation also indicate that

low risk so in this year has low volatility.

In year 2005-06 and 2006-07 has high volatility

BHARTI AIRTEL - Year 01-04-2005 to 31-03-2010

Year Averag Cumulative Standar Variance Coefficien

Page 27: Share Khan Brokerage

e

return

return d

deviatio

n

t of

variation

2005-

06

0.00275 0.689716 0.018806 0.000353 6.81690

2006-

07

0.00272 0.678515 0.022412 0.000502 8.22492

2007-

08

0.00064 0.161144 0.025714 0.000661 40.0535

2008-

09

-0.0006 -0.148661 0.032617 0.001063 -53.3160

2009-

10

-0.0016 -0.396569 0.044244 0.001957 -27.2227

In this script as per the standard deviation and coefficient of

variation high risk is 4.4% and -27.22% in year 2009-10. In year

2009-10 return is also negative and variance indicate that 0.19%

value dispersed from mean. This all things indicate high volatility in

year 2009-10 compare to all year.

As per the standard deviation and coefficient of variation in year

2007-08 indicates high risk and low return so year 2007-08 has high

volatility.

In year 2005-06 has 1.8% total risk and coefficient variation is

6.81% which is lowest compare to all year and indicate low volatility

in year 2005-06. In year 2009-10 has high volatility.

Page 28: Share Khan Brokerage

ICICI BANK - Year 01-04-2005 to 31-03-2010

Year Averag

e

return

Cumulative

return

Standar

d

deviatio

n

Variance Coefficien

t of

variation

2005-

06

0.00169 0.424202 0.020451 0.000418 12.05302

2006-

07

0.00177 0.442664 0.024085 0.000580 13.54820

2007-

08

0.00233 0.010946 0.030199 0.000912 12.93698

2008-

09

-0.0021 -0.528333 0.050262 0.002526 -23.11770

2009-

10

0.00486 1.186629 0.033568 0.001126 6.9025278

In Year 2009-10 average return is 0.48% and cumulative return is

1.18% which is highest compare to all company. And also

associated total risk is 3.3%. as per the coefficient of variation is

6.90% which is lowest compare to all year. in this year high return

low risk and low volatility.

In year 2008-09 standard deviation and coefficient of variation

indicates high risk and low return compare to all year. in year 2008-

09 has a high volatility.

in year 2006-07 cumulative return is high and as per the coefficient

of variation involved high risk and high volatility in this year.

Volatility and Beta

As far as an investor is concerned, the unsystematic risk is no very

important as it can be reduced or eliminated through diversification. it is

Page 29: Share Khan Brokerage

an irrelevant risk. The risk that is relevant in decision making is the

systematic risk because it is undivesifiable. Hence the investor seeks to

measure the systematic risk of security. Systematic risk is the variability

in security returns caused by changes in the economy or the market. All

securities are affected by such changes to some extent, but some

securities exhibit greater variability in response to market changes. Such

securities are said to have higher systematic risk. A higher variability

would indicate higher systematic risk and vice versa.

The systematic risk of security is measured by a statistical measure

called” beta” the input data required for the calculation for beta are the

historical data of returns of the individual security as well as the returns of

a representative stock market index. For the calculation of beta, the

return of individual security is taken as dependent variable, and the return

of the market index is taken as the independent variable. Beta is a score

that measures a market stock’ volatility or risk against the rest of the

market. It is calculating using regression analysis.

“The beta of an asset, β, is a measure of the variability of that asset

relative to the variability of the market as a whole .Beta is an index of the

systematic risk of an asset”.

Risk also implies return. Stocks with a high beta should have a higher

return than the market. If you are accepting more risk you should accept

more reward as beta measures the volatility of a securities return relative

to the market the larger the beta , the more volatile security. A beta of 1.0

indicates a security of average risk a stock with beta greater than 1.0 has

Above average risk. Its returns would be more volatile than the market

returns. A stock with less than 1.0 would have below average risk. A

security can have betas that are positive, negative or zero. It is a historical

measure of systematic risk of systematic risk. In using this beta for

investment decision making, the investor is assuming that the relationship

between the security variability and market variability will continue to

Page 30: Share Khan Brokerage

remain the same in future also. Investor can find the best use of beta ratio

in short term decision making, where price volatility is important.

“Beta shows sensitivity of script to that of index. If positive than moves

with market. And if beta is negative it has inverse relationship.”

10 Company’s calculated beta is as below.

COMPANY NAME YEAR-1

2005-06

YEAR-2

2006-07

YEAR-3

2007-

08

YEAR-4

2008-

09

YEAR-5

2009-

10

Reliance Ind. 1.0980 0.9962 1.1302 1.2544 1.2316

ONGC ltd 1.0436 0.8436 1.0986 0.8547 0.8288

NTPC ltd 0.6079 0.7096 1.1893 0.7908 0.6113

INFOSYSTCH 1.0506 0.9305 0.6167 0.6988 0.6816

TATA

consultancy

1.0642 1.0272 0.6844 0.9020 0.8005

State

Bank(SBIN)

0.9958 0.8863 0.9908 1.1047 1.1573

BHEL 1.0040 1.0857 1.0530 1.0169 0.9296

ITC Ltd. 1.1449 0.9402 0.6715 0.5269 0.6062

BHARTI AIRTEL 0.9808 0.9392 0.7790 0.9560 0.9164

ICICI Bank 1.0805 0.9275 1.1016 1.6388 1.4088

In reliance industries 1% change in to market index brings to 1.09%

change in share price of reliance industries in year 2005-06. 0.99%

change in 2006-07.1.25% change in 2008-09. Compare to all beta

value high risk is in year 2008-09.

Page 31: Share Khan Brokerage

In ONGC LTD 1% change in to market index brings to 1.04% change

in share price of ONGC LTD. in year 2005-06. 0.84% changes in

2006-07, 0.85% changes in 2008-09. Compare to all beta value high

risk is in year 2007-08.

In NTPC LTD 1% change in to market index brings to 0.60% change

in share price of NTPC LTD. in year 2005-06. 0.70% changes in

2006-07, 0.79% changes in 2008-09. Compare to all beta value high

risk is in year 2007-08.

In INFOSYSTCH LTD 1% change in to market index brings to 1.05%

change in share price of INFOSYSTCH in year 2005-06. 0.93%

changes in 2006-07, 0.69% changes in 2008-09. Compare to all beta

value high risk is in year 2005-06.

In ICICI BANK 1% change in to market index brings to 1.08% change

in share price of ICICIBANK in year 2005-06. 0.93% changes in 2006-

07, 1.63% changes in 2008-09. Compare to all beta value high risk

is in year 2008-09.

As per the comparison year wise high value of beta in year 2005-06

compare to all year beta value is near to 1.00 or more than 1.00

except one company NTPC LTD. It indicates that all script has a high

beta and high risk in year 2005-06 so this year is a risky year among

all year and high volatility in this year.

As per the comparison company wise Reliance industries has a high

value of beta to compare all this company. In reliance industries

beta value is more than 1.00 in all year except one year 2006-07. In

year 2006-07 beta value is 0.99 which is almost near to 1.00.

reliance industries security is a risky security compare to all security

and it indicates high volatility in this script. Next risky script is BHEL

(BHARAT heavy electronic limited). BHEL has a high value of beta

compare to all and beta value is more than 1.00 or near to 1.00 in

all 5 year. As per company wise reliance industries and BHEL has a

high risk and high volatility.

Page 32: Share Khan Brokerage

BHARTI AIRTEL and ITC LTD. have beta value is less than 1.00

except one year in both script. It indicates that this script has low

risk compare to all script and low volatility.

Correlation

The correlation is one of the most useful statistics. A correlation is single

number that describes degree of relationship between two variables.

Correlation is a statistical technique that can show weather that how

strongly pairs of variables are related. For example height and weight are

related taller people tend to be heavier than shorter people. The

relationship isn’t perfect. People of the same height vary in weight and

you can think of two people. You know where the shorter one is heavier

than the other taller one. Correlation can tell you just how much of the

variation in people’s weight is elated to their heights. Compute the

correlation value, the formula for correlation are:

r=N ∑xy−(∑x)(∑ y)√¿¿¿

We use the symbol r to stand for the correlation. The main result of

correlation is called the correlation coefficient (or “r”). it ranges from -1.0

to +1.0 the closer the r is to +1.0 or closer the -1.0 the more closely two

variable are related. Means the correlation is negative. We have a

negative relationship. If it’s positive the relationship is positive. if r is close

to 0(zero) means there is no relationship between two variables. If r is

positive it means as that one variable get larger the other gets larger. If r

Page 33: Share Khan Brokerage

is negative it means that as one gets larger the other gets smaller often

called an “Inverse “correlation.

In research 10 company’s 5 year data and calculate correlation between

trading volume and share price is as below.

Company name YEAR-1

2005-06

YEAR-2

2006-07

YEAR-3

2007-

08

YEAR-4

2008-

09

YEAR-5

2009-

10

Reliance Ind. 0.0923 0.0110 -0.0909 -0.0327 -0.0906

ONGC ltd 0.0567 -0.1250 -0.0737 0.0300 0.1525

NTPC ltd 0.2321 0.0498 0.1843 0.0718 -0.0094

INFOSYSTCH 0.0998 0.0249 -0.0767 0.0987 -0.3954

TATA

consultancy

0.0620 -0.0328 -0.0463 0.0507 -0.1499

State

bank(SBIN)

0.0707 0.0382 0.1841 0.0211 0.2477

BHEL 0.3638 -0.0780 0.0455 0.1289 0.1941

ITC Ltd. 0.0402 -0.0414 0.2487 -0.0552 -0.2248

BHARTI AIRTEL 0.2842 0.1356 -0.1103 -0.0738 -0.1251

ICICI Bank 0.3748 0.0664 0.0468 0.0398 0.1233

Page 34: Share Khan Brokerage

In reliance industries year 2005-06, 2006-07 no correlation between

trading volume and share price because correlation value is close to

0. In last 3 year inverse correlation between two variables. If share

price gets larger than trading volume gets smaller and share price

gets smaller than trading volume gets larger.

In ONGC ltd year.2005-06 and 2008-09 no correlation between

trading volume and share price .and inverse relationship rest of the

year.

Considering all year and all company there are no correlation

between trading volume and share price and also many year inverse

correlations between two variables.

This all things indicate that there are not any relationship between

trading volume and share price. Share price does not affect trading

volume. If share price increased or decreased does not change

trading volume and change in trading volume does not affect share

price.

High-Low and Open-Close price volatility

Share price does not remain constant. It changes daily. In stock market

daily price up-down and price increased or decreased at certain level.

More fluctuation in share price indicates high volatility.

High price: This is the highest price paid/received in at least of the

transaction on that day.

Low price: This is the lowest price paid/received in at least on the

transaction of the day.

Open price: At this price the first transaction has been taken place on

that day.

Page 35: Share Khan Brokerage

Close price: At this price the last transaction has been taken place on

that day.

Open close price return is known as “night gain”. Difference between

today’s open price and yesterday close price is open-close price return.

Open-close price difference is because of company’s news. But in open-

close price not high volatility compare to high-low price.

Year 2005-06

Company

Name

High-low

price

return

High-low

Price

step

Open-

close

Price

return

Open-

close

Price

step

Reliance Ind. 6.72330 0.02169 0.20056 0.02589

ONGC ltd 7.92587 0.02269 0.52167 0.01156

NTPC ltd 6.82345 0.01704 0.55632 0.01002

INFOSYSTCH 6.44097 0.01159 0.22710 0.00821

TATA con. 6.87743 0.01969 0.59926 0.00738

State

bank(SBIN)

6.84160 0.01644 0.53199 0.01318

BHEL 8.82096 0.01946 0.43805 0.01048

ITC Ltd. 7.35143 0.01616 -0.21595 0.05961

BHARTI AIRTEL 8.80216 0.02174 0.59955 0.00957

Page 36: Share Khan Brokerage

ICICI Bank 9.20979 0.02250 0.27826 0.014003

Price increase and decrease daily and more fluctuation in share

price increase volatility. As per the company wise comparison in

ICICI bank more fluctuation in high-low price associated risk is 2.2%

and also gets high return but as consider risk and return not high

volatility. In ONGC ltd also risk is 2.2% and gets less return compare

to ICICI indicates high volatility in this script.

As per the high-low price standard deviation ICICI Bank, ONGC ltd.

and reliance industries share price more fluctuate and high

volatility.

As per the open-close price standard deviation ITC ltd. has risk 5.9%

and reliance industries has risk 2.5% indicates high volatility in this

security.

Year 2006-07

Company

Name

High-low

price

return

High-low

Price

step

stdev

Open-

close

Price

return

Open-

close

Price

stdev

Reliance Ind. 7.91232 0.02193 0.45474 0.01107

ONGC ltd 9.70583 0.02387 0.09044 0.02500

NTPC ltd 9.12604 0.03501 0.40112 0.01390

INFOSYSTCH 7.34020 0.01751 0.41422 0.03277

TATA con. 8.58088 0.02081 0.31197 0.03446

State

bank(SBIN)

9.93999 0.02873 0.45555 0.01669

Page 37: Share Khan Brokerage

BHEL 9.75760 0.03222 0.90261 0.01158

ITC Ltd. 9.30032 0.02756 0.66391 0.00941

BHARTI AIRTEL 11.0636 0.03340 0.89617 0.01488

ICICI Bank 10.4219 0.03109 0.76257 0.01849

Comparison of all company BHARTI AIRTEL has risk 3.3% in high-low

price. If know this company’s high low price in advance than get

money 11 times at the end of the year.

As per the open –close price BHEL has low risk 1.1% and get high

return 90.26% indicates low volatility in this security. In this

company If know the open-close price in advance than get money

almost double at the end of the year.

As per the high-low price standard deviation NTPC ltd has high

volatility and as per the open-close price standard deviation TATA

consultancy has high volatility.

Year 2007-08

Company

Name

High-low

price

return

High-low

Price

stdev

Open-

close

Price

return

Open-

close

Price

stdev

Reliance Ind. 9.59766 0.02891 0.59745 0.01492

ONGC ltd 11.4599 0.03125 0.43667 0.01568

NTPC ltd 11.5680 0.03313 0.80379 0.01661

INFOSYSTCH 9.16214 0.02317 0.34656 0.01756

TATA con. 9.64992 0.02882 1.20012 0.01467

Page 38: Share Khan Brokerage

State

Bank(SBIN)

11.3105 0.02885 0.93247 0.01985

BHEL 10.9186 0.02486 0.51516 0.03367

ITC Ltd. 10.3538 0.02570 0.55304 0.01445

BHARTI AIRTEL 11.0571 0.03136 0.41839 0.01620

ICICI Bank 12.0781 0.03159 0.82213 0.02177

As per the high-low price Comparison of all company NTPC ltd has

high risk 3.3% and return is 11.45%. it indicates more volatility in

this script. Consider risk and return in ICICI bank high risk high

return compare to all company.

TCS and SBIN have same risk 2.8% but if as return is concerned

from SBIN get more return. It indicates that in TCS high volatility

compare to SBIN.

As per the open-close price standard deviation BHEL has high risk

and high volatility. Most safety script as per open-close price is TCS

because only 1.4% risk which is lowest compare to all and get

highest return 12% indicates low volatility and high volatility in

ICICI bank.

Year 2008-09

Company

Name

High-low

price

return

High-low

Price

stdev

Open-

close

Price

return

Open-

close

Price

stdev

Reliance Ind. 13.1321 0.03232 0.56742 0.02191

ONGC ltd 13.2624 0.03017 0.30669 0.02125

NTPC ltd 11.1621 0.02574 0.10028 0.01581

Page 39: Share Khan Brokerage

INFOSYSTCH 11.5156 0.02514 0.06292 0.01432

TATA con. 15.0244 0.03943 0.37883 0.02483

State

bank(SBIN)

13.8471 0.02944 0.08346 0.01816

BHEL 13.2735 0.02604 0.32995 0.01549

ITC Ltd. 10.5630 0.02499 0.04683 0.01154

BHARTI AIRTEL 13.7456 0.03360 1.05109 0.02570

ICICI Bank 18.0964 0.03874 0.57199 0.03213

As per the high-low price Comparison of all company ITC has high

risk 3.9% and return is 15.02%. It indicates more volatility in this

script. Consider risk and return in ICICI bank high risk high return

compare to all company.

In many companies have same return 13% but if considering risk

high risk in BHARTI AIRTEL and indicates high volatility.

As per the open-close price standard deviation ICICI has high risk

3.2% and high volatility. From BHARTI AIRTEL gets highest return

and also high risk 2.6% it indicates higher the risk higher the return

less volatility compare to ICICI Bank.

Year 2009-10

Company

Name

High-low

price

return

High-low

Price

stdev

Open-

close

Price

return

Open-

close

Price

stdev

Reliance Ind. 8.61806 0.02061 0.25571 0.03440

ONGC ltd 9.30674 0.02723 0.21739 0.01506

Page 40: Share Khan Brokerage

NTPC ltd 7.35875 0.02103 0.82088 0.00831

INFOSYSTCH 7.71085 0.01981 0.01597 0.01065

TATA con. 9.65965 0.02154 0.11055 0.03746

State

bank(SBIN)

8.94201 0.02386 0.91798 0.01383

BHEL 8.06803 0.02088 0.68785 0.01517

ITC Ltd. 8.45615 0.01969 0.60288 0.00901

BHARTI AIRTEL 10.9892 0.02766 0.20838 0.03593

ICICI Bank 11.0539 0.02900 0.69999 0.01974

As per the high-low price Comparison of all company ICICI has high

risk 2.9% and return is 11.05%. It indicates high volatility in this

script. comparison between BHARTI AIRTEL and ONGC ltd. have

same risk but high volatility in ONGC ltd. because in this get less

return.

many companies have same return but as per the risk is considered

high volatility in SBIN.

As per the open-close price standard deviation TCS has high risk and

high volatility. In SBIN low risk 1.9 % and gets high return means it

is best script for investment for year 2009-10.

CHAINKIN’S VOLATILITY

Developed by Marc Chaikin, the Chaikin Volatility indicator quantifies

volatility as the widening of the range between high and low prices by

comparing the spread between the instrument's high and low prices over

Page 41: Share Khan Brokerage

n-periods. Chaikin's Volatility indicator is created by first calculating an

exponential moving average of the difference between the High and Low

price for each period over n-periods (typically 10 periods) and then by

calculating the percentage change in the exponential moving average

over n-periods (also typically 10 periods).

The chinkin’s volatility function determiners the volatility of financial data

series using the percent change in a moving average of the high verses

low price over a given time.

Parameter

High price of the security for each given day.

Low price of security for each given day.

Moving average period the number of bars of data to include in the

moving average, including current value. A moving average period

of 10 is recommended.

Indicator value

Chaikin’s Volatility indicator is calculated by taking an exponential moving

average of the difference between the high and low prices over the given

period of time (MA Period). A percent change (or rate-of-change) is then

taken for the moving average over the given period (ROC Period). The

percent rate-of-change value is traditionally multiplied by 100 for easier

graphing.

Chaikin quantifies volatility as widening of the range between the high

and the low price of security.

chinki n' svolatility= [Toda y ' sclose−10days EMA ]∗smoothing factor+10days EMA

Page 42: Share Khan Brokerage

Smoothing factor= 21+n

A percent change (rate−of −change )= (H−L )average− (H−L )n perion ago(H−L )n period ago

∗100

To interpret this volatility. One method assumes that market tops are

generally accompanied by increased volatility (as investors get nervous

and indecisive) and that the latter stages of a market bottom are

generally accompanied by decreased volatility (as investors get bored).

Another method (Mr. Chaikin’s) assumes that an increase in the Volatility

indicator over a relatively short time period indicates that a bottom is near

(e.g., a panic sell-off) and that a decrease in volatility over a longer time

period indicates an approaching top (e.g., a mature bull market).

Usage

Chaikin’s Volatility indicator measures the volatility of a security. High

values indicate that prices are changing a large amount during the day.

Low values indicate that prices are staying relatively constant. Note that

both trending and level prices can have high or low volatility.

RELIANCE INDUSTIES

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1 15 29 43 57 71 85 99 113127141155169183197211225239

-50

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

90

110

130

year-1 2005-06 % changeyear-2 2006-07 % changeyear-3 2007-08 % changeyear-4 2008-09 % changeyear-5 2009-10 % change

As per the graph shown in reliance industries 2005-06 and 2009-10

more fluctuation in high-low price in this two company has high

volatility. As per the chainkin’sS volatility it more focus on recent

data’s exponential moving average and calculate % change in high-

low price.

ONGC Ltd.

Page 44: Share Khan Brokerage

1 15 29 43 57 71 85 99 113127141155169183197211225239

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

year-1 2005-06 % changeyear-2 2006-07 % changeyear-3 2007-08 % changeyear-4 2008-09 % changeyear-5 2009-10 % change

As per the graph shown 2005-06 and 2009-10 has high volatility in

this company 2005-06 and 2009-10 high price is near 120 and low

price is near to -40 and many times in 2005-06 prices are more

fluctuate and less fluctuation on 2006-07 indicates low volatility in

2006-07.

NTPC Ltd.

Page 45: Share Khan Brokerage

1 15 29 43 57 71 85 99 113127141155169183197211225239

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

year-1 2005-06 % changeyear-2 2006-07 % changeyear-3 2007-08 % changeyear-4 2008-09 % changeyear-5 2009-10 % change

As per the graph shown in this company more fluctuation in high-

low price in 2005-06, 2006-07 and 2009-10. In all this year prices

are more fluctuate and it indicates high volatility. In many years

volatility % change also in minus 38.39 in 2005-06 and 34.37 in

2009-10.

INFOSYTCH

Page 46: Share Khan Brokerage

1 15 29 43 57 71 85 99 113127141155169183197211225239

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

year-1 2005-06 % changeyear-2 2006-07 % changeyear-3 2007-08 % changeyear-4 2008-09 % changeyear-5 2009-10 % change

As per the graph shown more fluctuation in 2007-08. In this year

high price is near to 100 and many times low price is -20 or above -

20 indicates high volatility in this year. and also in 2005-06 and

2007-08 has more fluctuation in share price indicate high volatility.

TATA CONSULTANCY

Page 47: Share Khan Brokerage

1 15 29 43 57 71 85 99 113127141155169183197211225239

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

year-1 2005-06 % changeyear-2 2006-07 % changeyear-3 2007-08 % changeyear-4 2008-09 % changeyear-5 2009-10 % change

SAs per the graph shown more fluctuation in high low price in 2005-

06 indicates high volatility. In this company in all year have more

fluctuation in high-price indicate high volatility compare to all

company.

STATE BANK OF INDIA

Page 48: Share Khan Brokerage

1 15 29 43 57 71 85 99 113127141155169183197211225239

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

year-1 2005-06 % changeyear-2 2006-07 % changeyear-3 2007-08 % changeyear-4 2008-09 % changeyear-5 2009-10 % change

As per the graph shown in 2005-06 and 2006-07 has more

fluctuation in share price indicate high volatility in this two year

compare to all year. In 2007-08 also more fluctuation but less

volatility compare to first two year.

BHARAT HEAVY ELETRONICS LIMITED

Page 49: Share Khan Brokerage

1 15 29 43 57 71 85 99 113127141155169183197211225239

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

year-1 2005-06 % changeyear-2 2006-07 % changeyear-3 2007-08 % changeyear-4 2008-09 % changeyear-5 2009-10 % change

In year 2005-06 has more fluctuation in high-low price and high

volatility In this year. and compare to all year low volatility in year

2009-10. Market bottom and tops are very high in this year.

ITC LTD.

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year-1 2005-06 % changeyear-2 2006-07 % changeyear-3 2007-08 % changeyear-4 2008-09 % changeyear-5 2009-10 % change

As per the graph shown more fluctuation in high-low price in 2006-07 and 2007-08. Indicates high volatility in this two year compare to all years. And low volatility in year 2008-09.

.

BHARTI AIRTEL

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year-1 2005-06 % changeyear-2 2006-07 % changeyear-3 2007-08 % changeyear-4 2008-09 % changeyear-5 2009-10 % change

As per the graph shown year 2005-06 and 2006-07 has high

volatility. More fluctuation high-low price also gives high return but

also associated risk is high. And compare to all year 2007-08 has

low volatility.

ICICI BANK

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year-1 2005-06 % changeyear-2 2006-07 % changeyear-3 2007-08 % changeyear-4 2008-09 % changeyear-5 2009-10 % change

In ICICI Bank in year 2006-07 has high volatility and also compare to

all year in this script high fluctuation in all year. in this company

more fluctuation in high ;low share price and indicate high volatility.

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FINDINGS

Page 54: Share Khan Brokerage

As per the all 10 company’s data analysis In ITC Ltd. 6.1% risk and

in ICICI bank 5% risk which is highest compare to all company. And

high volatility in this two company.

In NTPC Ltd. 1.5% risk and in ONGC Ltd. 1.6% risk indicates low

volatility in this two security.

As per the year wise comparison in year 2008-09 has high risk also

get negative return in this year in all company.

Systematic risk is measured by Beta value. Beta indicates that

Reliance industries and ICICI bank have high beta value compare to

all script which is near to 1.00 or more than 1.00 in all year so high

volatility in this two security.

As per the correlation between trading volume and share price there

are not any relationship between this two variable. And also in many

years there are inverse relationships between this two variable.

High-low price more fluctuation in year 2008-09 and also gets

highest return from all security in this year. If investor know the

high-low price of particular security in advance than get highest

return from high-low price fluctuation.

Open close price more fluctuation in TATA Consultancy and ICICI

bank indicates high open-close price volatility in this two year.

As per the chainkin’s volatility percentage change is high in ICICI

bank, reliance industries and also high fluctuation in year 2006-07

and in year 2008-09 and year 2007-08 has low volatility.

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CONCLUSION

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The movement of share price and trading volume are influenced by

in the flow of new information into the market. Volatility simply

means ‘risk’. And there are various statistical tools used for the

measurement of volatility. Risk is measured by the standard

deviation and coefficient of variation. Higher the value of standard

deviation indicate higher the risk and volatility. Lower the value of

standard deviation lowers the risk and volatility. standard deviation

or variance however provides a measurement of total risk

associated with security.

In ITC Ltd. Associated risk is 6.1% and in ICICI Bank associated risk

is 5% which is highest compare to all company and indicate high

volatility in this two company compare to all company. And in ONGC

Ltd. and NTPC Ltd. associated risk is less than 3% indicate low

volatility compare to all company.

Systematic risk is measured by beta value and most of the year

beta value is near to 1.00 indicate high risk in the security. In

Reliance industries and ICICI Bank has beta value is more than

1.00 and it is highest compare to all company. In this two company

high volatility. As per the correlation there are not any relationship

between share price and trading volume because in many year

correlation value is near to 0 and many year inverse relationship

between this two variable. Also measure high-low volatility. In ICICI

Bank has high volatility in high-low price.

Chinkin’s volatility indicate high-low price volatility. High –low price

is very important for the intraday transaction. May be close to close

price difference is very low but high-low price difference may be

high. Chaikin’s volatility is important tool for measurement of high-

low price volatility.

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RECOMMANDATION

Here recommend to the investors , they believe in higher the risk

higher the return they should invest in reliance industries. In this

company high volatility but also get high return. In ICICI bank and

ITC ltd. have high volatility comparison to all company so

recommend to the investors not invested money in this company.

For the safety investment and who do not want to take high risk

they can invest their money in low volatile security like ONGC Ltd.

and NTPC Ltd.

Also high volatility in ICICI bank as per the high-low price volatility.

Investor those who want to take high risk they invested they

invested in this company.

Page 59: Share Khan Brokerage

BIBILOGRAPHY

BOOKS

S.Kevin (2008) “security analysis an portfolio management”, 3/ rd

edition, PHI publication, pp(18-29), (54-73).

Ken Black (2008)”Business statistics”,4/th edition, WILEY publication

Ltd, pp(58-61).

WEBSITE

• http://www.tradingsolutions.com/functions/ChaikinsVolatility.html

• http://money.rediff.com/companies/market-capitalisation

• http://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/coefficientofvariation.asp

• http://stocks.about.com/od/evaluatingstocks/a/beta120904.htm

• http://www.sharekhan.com/Services/

• http://www.investopedia.com/terms/v/volatility.asp