SFFES- Ecological Sensitivity Workshop CWHvm1 Eastside / Mainland (15% of District)

SFFES- Ecological Sensitivity Workshop

CWHvm1 Eastside / Mainland

(15% of District)

CWHvm1- East, Call Inlet

CWHvm1- East, Call Inlet - Current BEC

Bookend climate scenarios

CWHvm1- East, Call Inlet– PCM-B1 2050

CWHvm1- East, Call Inlet – PCM-B1 2050

CWHxm1 temp

Precip is notrepresentative

CWHvm1- East, Call Inlet – HAD-A1FI 2050

CWHvm1- East – HAD-A1F1 2050

CDFmmtemp

CWHvh(+)Precip

CWHvm1- East – HAD-A1F1 2050

Summer heat: moisture index

Between CWHvm1 and CWHmm1

CONSIDER CWHvm1- East STAND / ECOSYSTEMS – In a changing climate

CWHvm1- East STAND / ECOSYSTEMS- 2050(PCM & HAD)

SUMMARY OF DISCUSSION:

Vulnerability ClassesLow – Stands will suffer minor losses due to climate

change.Mod – likely will suffer significant but manageable

losses and or secondary risks (fire etc.)High – likely will suffer major losses or incur high

secondary risks, but catastrophic losses unlikely.Very High – likelihood for catastrophic losses are high.

Opportunity ClassesNil – No opportunity to enhance growth.Minor – Minor growth enhancement likely.Significant – significant growth enhancement

likely.

Species Vuln. Class

Opp. Class

Reasoning (e.g. drought stress/

Hw Low-Mod Nil Still OK – may lose vigor on 03 south facing sites.

SIBEC – could look at where these might occur.

Lots of stand data on these 2nd growth stands – Karel Klinka did lots of site index work – across range of site series.

Cw Low – some minor losses

Nil Somewhat the same as Hw

CWHvm1- East STAND / ECOSYSTEMS- 2050(PCM & HAD)

SUMMARY OF DISCUSSION:Species Vuln. Class Opp.

ClassReasoning (e.g. drought stress/

Ba Mod-High Will not be as happy in dm or xm conditions – will be restricted to cooler slopes and moister sites. Even plant little Ba here today.

Sawfly problems up Philips Arm (also White, Eve, Adams drainages – Shoen Lake – TFL 39) – climate change may reduce these problems (warmer drier – may have few problems)

Fd Low to Nil Minor - Nil Should be coming into a climate regime that Fd will do well in – this will favour Fd.

Dr Low Minor No issues – will still be moist – should be good

Yc ??? ??? Hard to say – not much there

CWHvm1- East Ecol. Suitable Regen – Now and Future

MESIC SITE DISCUSSION : 1. What are the vulnerabilities and why? (drought / insects /

disease?) 2. What are the opportunities – where / when?3. What are the outstanding questions?

% of orig area Ba Bg Bl Bp Cw Fd Hm Hw Lw Pl Pw Py Se Ss Sx Yc Act Dr Ep Mb Qg Ra

Present CWHvm1 (ha) 209,400 26 9,16 7,35 b 7,25 a b

CWHmm1 74 10 b 7,a b

CWHvm1 26 26 9,16 7,35 b 7,25 a b

CWHdm 67 24 31 b 7,42 a 18 a b b

CWHxm1 14 24 31


Green Primary Footnotes in cells - see listYellow Secondary Orange Tertiary

Preliminary Sensitivity InterpretationCWHvm1 - Eastside/Mainland - This area shifts towards the CWHmm1 climate where Ba falls out, Fd becomes more suited and Cw and Hw less so.

Footnotes7 restricted to nutrient-medium sites9 restricted to southerly aspects

10 restricted to northerly aspects

16 restricted to southern portion of biogeoclimatic unit in region18 restricted to eastern portion of biogeoclimatic unit in region24 suitable (as a major species) in wetter portion of BEC unit25 suitable on sites lacking salal26 suitable minor species on salal-dominated sites31 risk of white pine blister rust35 risk of weevil damage42 restricted to fresh soil moisture regimesa productive, reliable, and feasible regeneration optionb limited in productivity, reliability and/or feasibility

MESIC SITES

PCM-B1 2050

HAD-A1F1 2050

Ba Bg Bl Bp Cw Fd Hm Hw Lw Pl Pw Py Se Ss Sx Yc Act Dr Ep Mb Qg Ra



CWHvm1 26 26 9,16 7,35 b 7,25 a b

CWHdm 67 24 31 b 7,42 a 18 a b b

CWHxm1 14 24 31



Preliminary Sensitivity Interpretation




CWHvm1- East Regeneration Vulnerabilities & Opportunities

Added Comments:• Fd – major opportunities for regen and growth. • On sites here zonal to xeric – Pw will do well.• On receiving sites Cw will still do OK

• Cw should likely be at least secondary• Hw regen here is prolific except on brushy sites• Hw on rich sites now –form is terrible fluted butt logs

• With considerable moisture – Hw should still be OK – just avoid rich sites.

• Likely decomposition to change soil fertility – likely not lots in next 40-80 years – could check this out – lots of research now.

• Dr – careful where it is managed with outflows – but generally in this part of the mainland sites – don’t get these right now – it would have to change - problem – not the major inlets here. Likely not a huge issue

Mesic Sites




CWHvm1 26 26 9,16 7,35 b 7,25 a b

CWHdm 67 24 31 b 7,42 a 18 a b b

CWHxm1 14 24 31







CWHvm1- East Regeneration Vulnerabilities & Opportunities

Added Comments:• Dr = desirable to maintain on the landscape – diversity and improve site

productivity on this moist warm sites.• Ba – will be challenged – less summer moisture.

• North aspects might be OK if it is mixed with Cw (which would be favoured).

• Hybrid or native cottonwood – not poplar with foresters – need enough for a business.• If we experience a great deal of change – may be a short rotation

species (along with Dr) to allow for flexibility.• Diversity on the landscape – probably best to keep it to where it

naturally occurs on the landscape.• Bitter cherry – short term species – lasts for 50 years. Comes in dense with

banked seed but not a big competitor – may make its way into the vm1 as conditions change.

Mesic Sites




CWHvm1 26 26 9,16 7,35 b 7,25 a b

CWHdm 67 24 31 b 7,42 a 18 a b b

CWHxm1 14 24 31







PEEK FURTHER INTO THE FUTURE

CWHvm1- East, Call Inlet – PCM-B1 2080

CWHvm1

CWHdm

CWHdm

Dominant Subzone Climate

% of the CWHvm1

CWHdm 78%

CWHmm1 18%


CWHvm1- East, Call Inlet – HAD-A1F1 2080

CWHxm-hot

CW

Hxm

1

CW

Hxm

-hot

CWHdm-hot

CW

Hxm

1

CWHxm-hot

CW

Hdm


% of the CWHvm1

CWHxm-hot 26.2%

CWHdm-hot 24.6%

CWHxm1 16%

CWHdm 13%

CWHmm 11%


CWHvm1- East, Call Inlet – HAD-A1F1 2080

mean annual temperature 7.8 11.5 3.7 mean warmest month temperature 15.4 19.9 4.5 mean coldest month temperature 1.4 4.0 2.6 extreme minimum temperature (18.0) (11.8) 6.2 Continentality (MWMT - MCMT) 13.9 15.9 14.0%frost free period 165.7 286.0 72.6%number of frost free days 273.8 343.0 25.3%degree-days above 18 degrees C 20.4 224.0 203.6degree-days below 0 degrees C 67.2 10.6 -56.6mean annual precipitation 3,359.1 2,773.0 -17.4%mean annual summer precipitation 669.9 469.0 -30.0%precipitation as snow 286.0 73.0 -74.5%Summer heat:moisture index 24.5 46.3 89.1%Annual heat:moisture index 5.8 8.3 43.6%

ANNUAL CLIMATE VARIABLES Now 2080 change

Estimate based on CWHxm-hot and CWHdm-hot


% of the CWHvm1

CWHxm-hot 26.2%

CWHdm-hot 24.6%

CWHxm1 16%

CWHdm 13%

CWHmm 11%

Documents

SFFES- Ecological Sensitivity Workshop CWHvm1 Eastside / Mainland (15% of District)