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Ray Nelson Romney Institute of Public Management

Brigham Young University FTA Revenue Estimation Conference

September 2010

•  Severity •  Duration •  Origin •  Employment •  Revenue

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2

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•  State economic characteristics •  Tax portfolio

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4

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60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

NonagriculturalEmployment

Jobs Trend 1stPercen9le Median 99thPercen9le

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•  Severity •  Duration •  Origin •  Employment •  Revenue