Session II , III and IV Impacts Modeling

Chaired by Harasawa (NIES)

1. Brief Introduction of Impact Study :Harasawa2. Impacts on South Asia : Prof. Lal3. Progress of AIM/Impact Models

- Takahashi- Profs Sun, Li You- Jung- Hijioka- Masutomi

4. Disscution

Brief Introduction of Impacts Study in Impacts GroupHideo Harasawa

Central Env. Council (Int’l Strategy)

S-3 Low Carbon Society 2050 (MoEP)

S-4 Strategic Impacts Research (MoE P)

IPCC/GEO/Avoiding Dangerous CC

Global Warming Initiative, NHK, PR

Impact Map, Function

Impacts Detection BookIntegrated Impacts Monitoring

Special TV Program (19 & 20 Feb.)

Adaptation Adaptation Strategy Plan

Impacts and Adaptation (B-52)

Ch.17 Adaptation

NIES next Research Plan

Extreme events Impacts

Extreme Events and Impacts (B-12)

Ch.10 Asia

NIES next Research Plan

Stabilization and Impacts/Risk

2℃、475ppm,５０％GHG cut in 2050

←+ burden sharing

Next IPCC Scenario,GEO4

Impact Ref.、Temp. and Impacts

New GW Research Prog.

Scenario NIES, MoE, IR3S

Data : Climate Model, etc.

Projects

Subject

Impact/Policy

Agri. Impact

Heat Stress

Water Impact

・2℃ stabilization: GHG <475ppm• Global GHG emission in 2050<50% of 1990•60-80％ cut in Japan ( UK 60％, Germeny 80％, France75％

Greenhouse gases:CO2,CH4,

N2O, CFCs, etc.

BaU GHG-475ppm GHG-500ppm GHG-550ppm GHG-650ppm

0

5

10

15

20

25

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

年

温室

効果

ガス

排出

量 (二

酸化

炭素

換算

：G

tC/年

)

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.019

9020

0020

1020

2020

3020

4020

5020

6020

7020

8020

9021

0021

1021

2021

3021

4021

50年

気温

上昇

(199

0年=0

.6℃

)

Global Temp. Global GHG Emission

GHG475ppm

GHG: （Greenhouse gases） 50% cut

475

650550500

BaU

650550500

BaU

GHG475ppm

Longterm Stabilization Target: Temperature and GHG Emission

・ Dangerous Level of GW

・ Stabilization Path and its Impacts

・ Total Impacts under Scenarios

Impacts Models, Scenario Analysis in

AssessmentCapacityPolicy Formulation

Low Carbon 2050（S-2）

IPCC

UNFCCC

Kyoto Protocol

Emission・Social/Economic Scenarios Database

Opt. Emission Pathway

Climate Change DB

Vulnerability Maps

Impact Funcitons

Adaptation DB

①Basic Analysis・ Definition of Dangerous Climate Risk・ Equity (Regions and Generations)・ Uncertainty (Precautionary Principle)

（Other 6 Groups) （Adaptation）

③Integrated Model (AIM/Impact-policy)AIM Model Dev.（B-54 etc.）

GW InitiativeExtreme events and Impacts (B-12）

Climate Model（B-1, B-12 etc.）

Link

s to

oth

er re

sear

ch

Adaptation Infomation

Function, Map

６ sectors

S-4 Research on Dangerous Climate Risk and Emission Pathway

②Global Impacts

IPCC ３rd LA MeetingMerida (Mexico)

• 2006.1.16～19+20（CLA）• TSU、CLA、LA、ＲE、Bureau、

250persons• Topics

★Response to Review Comments on FOD★Major Findings, SPM, TS

• Japanese Participants– T. Oki（Ch.3：Water ：LA）– S. Nisioka（Ch.10：Asia：RE)– H. Harasawa（Ch.10：Asia：CLA）– Y. Honda（Ch. 10：Asia：LA）– N. Mimura（Ch. 16：SI：CLA）– K. Takahasi（Ch. 17：Adaptation：

LA）

Chichen Itza

Opening

Merida

Chichen Itza

Cancun :2005.10.21, Hurricane Wilama(#21, Level 4)

Mexico Yucatan Peninsula

IPCC WG2 Discussion • Emerging Impacts of Global Warming in the

World (Detection of impacts)• Compilation of Impacts Data and Knowledge for

Stabilization and Major Vulnerability Issues• Extreme Events and Global Warming (Europe

Heatwave, Hurricane Katrina)• Large Scale Extreme Events • Acidification of Ocean• Adaptation and Mitigation• Global Warming and Sustainable Development

Ember diagram (example)

(Hare, B., 2006)

Temperature and Impacts Table

Change of 0.7° - 1.0° C (i.e., 0.1° – 0.4° C additional warming)

Global Increased ecosystem disturbance by pests and disease, especially in Boreal forests, Australia and California [84] (Gitay et al., 2001; Hare, 2003)

Europe Increased overwinter survival in resident and wintering birds and northward expansion in ranges of butterflies [81,82] (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005b).

Africa Increase in drought in Sahel could lead to loss of local flora and fauna [83] {ECF, 2004, unknown}. Reduction in extent of Karoo, the richest floral area in the world and declines in range sizes for some animal species in South Africa [87] (Rutherford et al., 1999).

Australia Coral reefs at high risk [85] (Hoegh-Guldberg, 1999a). Reduction in extent of Queensland’s World Heritage Rainforest with loss of habitat and range declines in the Golden Bowerbird [86,89] (Hilbert et al., 2001; Hilbert et al., 2003). Risk of extinction of vulnerable species in SW Australia Dryandra forest [88] (Pouliquen-Young and Newman, 1999).

Small Island States

Coral reefs at high risk in Caribbean and Indian Ocean [85] (Hoegh-Guldberg, 1999a).

Change of 1.0° – 1.5° C

Global 82% of coral reefs bleached [90] (Hoegh-Guldberg, 1999a). 10% of global ecosystems are transformed losing between 2 and 47% of their extents; only 53% of the wooded tundra remains stable [91] (Leemans and Eickhout, 2003).

Australia 50% loss of highland rainforest with range losses of endemic species and some risk of extinction of Golden Bowerbird [92] (Hilbert et al., 2001; Hilbert et al., 2003; Williams et al., 2003). Greater than 50% loss of Kakadu wetlands [94] (Hare, 2005).

Small Island States

Potential extinction of coral reefs in the Indian Ocean [93] (Sheppard, 2003).

Change of 1.0° – 2.0° C

Global Risks for many ecosystems [95] (Leemans and Eickhout, 2003). Australia Many eucalypts at risk from range shifts [96] (Hughes et al., 1996). Significant loss

of alpine zone [98] (Busby, 1988). Extinction risks for frogs and mammals in Queensland rainforest [100] (Williams et al., 2003).

North America Large impacts to salmonid fishes [97] {, impacts on ecosystems} (Keleher and Rahel, 1996).

Africa Severe loss of extent of Karoo [99] (Rutherford et al., 1999). Antarctic Threats to key mollusk species [101] (Peck et al., 2004). Arctic Severe damage to Arctic ecosystems [103] (Hassol, 2004). 60% loss of lemmings

with concomitant ecosystem impacts on predators [104] (Kerr and Packer, 1998).

Source: NIES/CCSR/JAMSTEC

Future Temperature change（1950-2100）

TemperatireIncrease(℃）

Precipitation Change(％）

Future Precipitation change（1950-2100）

Source: NIES/CCSR/JAMSTEC

NHK Special TV Program“Climate in

Crisis”18(Sat) 21:00-19(Sun) 21:00-

Impacts of Heat Wave; Excess death （1990’s vs. 2090’s）

1990’s

2090’s

10-4 10-3 10-2 10-1 100

(Person/km2) By Takahashi and Prof. Honda

Pro

blem

Fra

min

g

Soc

ial N

eeds

to P

robl

em S

olut

ion

Sci

ence

-STS

“Clim

ate

Cha

nge

as a

Res

earc

h Fi

eld”

Cre

atio

n of

Sus

tain

abilit

y Sc

ienc

e an

d te

chno

logy

Exis

ting

Scie

nce

Dis

cipl

ines

New

Kno

wle

dge

Stru

ctur

ing

Implementation Process

Assessment

Imagination

Recognition

Concept

Burden Sharing in International Policy

Policy Assessment in View of Sustainable Development

Identification of Problems and Gaps

Desirable Social Vision / Scenarios

International Negotiation

Technology Program

Impact/Risk Recognition

Vision / Scenarios

International Negotiation, Technology Selection in COP

Alternative Policy Measures in Asian Countries for Sustainable Society

Problems in Asian Countries for Sustainable Society

Future possible Scenarios for Sustainable Society

Policy Response to Problems Theory of New Science

Initiative for Policy Formation and Environmental Sustainability (IPFES)

Integrated Research System For Sustainability Science (IR3S)

Figure 1. Mission and Role of Proposed Initiative by NIES in IR3S～Dialogue between “Problem Framing and Creation of New Science”～

WS in Individual Field

Process Study Linking Science and Policy

Dialogue between Problems and Science to Create Sustainability Science

Environment Economic Development

Global Warming

Poverty/PopulationNatural Resources Human SocietyEnergy

Exi

stin

g E

nviro

nmen

tal P

robl

ems

Universities / Research InstitutesJoint WS

Problems

Future Development and Application of AIM/Impacts

・AIM/Impact - Global Model

Advanced Model: Water Resources, Health, Food

New Model: Land Use

・AIM/Impact [Country]

AIM/Impact-Korea, China, India

・AIM/Impact[Policy]

Stablization, Temp, Emission Pathway

Beyond Kyoto Strategy

・Adaptation

・Model Application:

Sustainable Society Vision and Scenario

Integration of Impacts model to Climate Model

Thank You

Activity in FY2005

AIM/Ecosystem[Global]

AIM/Ecosystem[Country]

AIM/Impact[Policy]

Impact SDB

APEIS-IEA(-2006.3)

Development

Next AIM(2006.4-)

Impact TD(2006.4-)

Application

Present AIM(-2006.3)

Application

ProjectModel

RevisionApplicationDevelopment

Revision

Activity in FY2005 and Future Direction of AIM/Impact Activity in FY2005 and Future Direction of AIM/Impact Climate policy and sustainable development policy will be assessed.

Dangerous level of climate change in Japan and Asia will be assessed.

AIM/Impact[Process]

RevisionApplicationDevelopment

Application

Extreme Event(2004.4-)

Application

AIM/Impact[Country]

RevisionApplication

RevisionApplication

Development RevisionApplication

RevisionApplication

Development

Application

RevisionApplication

RevisionApplication

Impact is assessed considering extreme climate event and climate variability.

Climate DB