Upload
others
View
5
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
http://wwa.colorado.edu
Jeff Lukas, Senior Research Associate
CIRES Western Water Assessment
Upper Colorado River Basin Forum
Colorado Mesa University
November 7, 2013
September’s Extreme Weather: How the weather system that flooded Colorado’s
Front Range affected the Upper Colorado River
Basin
http://wwa.colorado.edu
http://wwa.colorado.edu
Acknowledgements
• Klaus Wolter, Kelly Mahoney, and Joe
Barsugli (CIRES/NOAA PSD)
• Nolan Doesken and Wendy Ryan
(Colorado Climate Center, CSU)
• Imtiaz Rangwala, Ben Livneh, and Eric
Gordon (CIRES/WWA)
• Martin Hoerling and George Kiladis
(NOAA PSD)
http://wwa.colorado.edu
NOAA HPC 7-day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
(QPF) issued 6pm 9/8/2013 for 9/9 through 9/15
http://wwa.colorado.edu Upper-air (500mb) pattern – September 11, 2013
L
http://wwa.colorado.edu
Water vapor and atmospheric circulation at 11:15 pm MDT, September 11, 2013. (Satellite image: CIMSS, University of Wisconsin)
L L
http://wwa.colorado.edu
Total atmospheric precipitable water (PW) over Denver on
Sept. 11, 2013, compared to all values from 1948-2012
Denver 1.44”
http://wwa.colorado.edu
Total atmospheric precipitable water (PW) over Grand Jct. on
Sept. 10, 2013, compared to all values from 1948-2012
Max
99th 9/10/2013
Pre
cip
itab
le W
ate
r, in
che
s
Grand Jct. 1.28”
http://wwa.colorado.edu Upper-air (500mb) pattern – September 9, 2013
L
http://wwa.colorado.edu Upper-air (500mb) pattern – September 10, 2013
L
http://wwa.colorado.edu Upper-air (500mb) pattern – September 11, 2013
L
http://wwa.colorado.edu Upper-air (500mb) pattern – September 12, 2013
L
http://wwa.colorado.edu Upper-air (500mb) pattern – September 13, 2013
L
http://wwa.colorado.edu Upper-air (500mb) pattern – September 14, 2013
L
http://wwa.colorado.edu Upper-air (500mb) pattern – September 15, 2013
L
http://wwa.colorado.edu
CoCoRAHS total precipitation from September 9–15, 2013
(Map: Colorado Climate Center, CSU)
Grand Junction
1.7
Denver (Stapleton)
13.3
http://wwa.colorado.edu
Near-surface (850mb) winds, September 12, 2013
http://wwa.colorado.edu
CoCoRAHS total precipitation from September 9–15, 2013
Steamboat Spgs
2.5
Grand Jct
1.7
Durango
3.0 Pagosa Spgs
2.5
Glenwood
1.4
Gunnison
1.6 Norwood
2.0
Dillon
2.0
Cortez
2.0
Aspen 1.8
(Map: Colorado Climate Center, CSU)
http://wwa.colorado.edu
CoCoRAHS total precipitation from September 9–15, 2013 (Map: Colorado Climate Center, CSU)
1”-2”
2”-4”
2”-4”
2”-4”
2”-6”
http://wwa.colorado.edu
SNOTEL precipitation (in.), September 2013 with Sept. 9-16 shaded
0
2
4
6
8
10 Willow Park
0
2
4
6
8
10 Tower
0
2
4
6
8
10 Loveland Basin
0
2
4
6
8
10
Hoosier Pass
3.2” 6.0” 2.4”
5.1”
http://wwa.colorado.edu
0
2
4
6
8
10
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
SNOTEL precipitation (in.), September 2013 with Sept. 9-16 shaded
Columbus Basin
0
2
4
6
8
10
Wolf Creek Summit
Weminuche Creek
0
2
4
6
8
10 McClure Pass
2.1”
6.4” 7.3” 2.3”
http://wwa.colorado.edu
CoCoRAHS
September 2013 precipitation as % of normal (Map: Colorado Climate Center, CSU)
http://wwa.colorado.edu
PRISM monthly Western CO (Div. 2) precipitation, 2000–2013
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
Jan- 2000
Jan- 2001
Jan- 2002
Jan- 2003
Jan- 2004
Jan- 2005
Jan- 2006
Jan- 2007
Jan- 2008
Jan- 2009
Jan- 2010
Jan- 2011
Jan- 2012
Jan- 2013
Pre
cip
itat
ion
, in
che
s
September 2013
4.17”
September 2013: wettest month since April 1999 3rd wettest September on record 13th wettest month on record
http://wwa.colorado.edu
Upper Colorado Basin streamflow percentiles
September 8, 2013 September 15, 2013
http://wwa.colorado.edu
Upper Colorado Basin hydrographs for September 2013
http://wwa.colorado.edu
Upper Colorado Basin hydrographs for September 2013
http://wwa.colorado.edu
Upper Colorado Basin hydrographs for September 2013
http://wwa.colorado.edu
Upper Colorado Basin hydrographs for September 2013
http://wwa.colorado.edu
Upper Colorado Basin hydrographs for September 2013
http://wwa.colorado.edu
Navajo Reservoir contents - September 1st-30th, 2013
Co
nte
nts
(ac
re-f
eet)
September
800,000
850,000
900,000
950,000
1,000,000
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29
Net Gain:
~100,000 AF
http://wwa.colorado.edu
Lake Powell Daily Inflows - September 2013
http://wwa.colorado.edu
Lake Powell change in reservoir level - September 1st-30th
Elev
atio
n, f
eet
September
3587
3588
3589
3590
3591
3592
1 8 15 22 29
Net gain:
~4 feet
~250,000 AF
http://wwa.colorado.edu
US Drought Monitor for Colorado – before and after the rain event
September 17, 2013 September 3, 2013
http://wwa.colorado.edu
VIC simulated soil moisture percentiles – before and after
http://wwa.colorado.edu
How unusual was the September
2013 event for the Western
Slope?
http://wwa.colorado.edu
• Sept. 3-7, 1909
• Sept. 3-4, 1927
• Sept. 18-23, 1941
• Sept. 27-30, 1959
• Sept. 20-24, 1961
• Sept. 4-6, 1970
• Sept. 19-21, 1997
• Sept. 6-10, 2003
Previous September/October multiday
Western Slope precipitation events
• Oct. 10-15, 1894
• Oct. 4-6, 1911
• Oct. 19-20, 1972
• Oct. 10-12, 1986
• Focus of these
events is usually
San Juans
http://wwa.colorado.edu
(Data: NCAR/NCEP and NOAA 20th Century Reanalyses)
Sept. 12-14, 2013 Sep. 4-6, 1970
L L L
Upper-level (500 Mb) pattern, averaged over ~3-day period of
peak of rainfall in two West Slope heavy precip events
http://wwa.colorado.edu
Total atmospheric precipitable water (PW) over Denver from
1948-2012, compared to the measurement for 6pm MDT on
September 11, 2013 (red dot) (Plot adapted from NOAA NWS.)
Climate change?
http://wwa.colorado.edu
Total atmospheric precipitable water (PW) over Denver from
1948-2012, compared to the measurement for 6pm MDT on
September 11, 2013 (red dot) (Plot adapted from NOAA NWS.)
Climate change?
http://wwa.colorado.edu
Summary of the September 2013 event
• Surges of subtropical monsoon-like moisture persisted for ~1 week due to near-stationary upper-level pattern
• Western Slope and UCRB received widespread beneficial precipitation without the severe flooding (except NW NM)
• Event contributed to September 2013 being wettest month for Western Slope since 1999
• Precipitation fell as rain at all elevations: increase in runoff, reservoir levels, and soil moisture
• Similar widespread fall precipitation events on West Slope have occurred every ~10 years
• Not clear how climate change may alter frequency of these events – but each event will likely be wetter