Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
QPF verification of LAMI. F. Grazzini, M. S. Tesini, P. Mezzasalma. Forecasting Section ARPA-ServizioIdroMeteorologico Emilia-Romagna [email protected]. Outline. Box verification (Tesini) Weather dependent verification (Mezzasalma). Box verification (0.4°x0.4°) over N-Italy. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Citation preview
QPF verification of LAMI
F. Grazzini, M. S. Tesini, P. Mezzasalma
Forecasting Section ARPA-ServizioIdroMeteorologicoEmilia-Romagnafgrazzini@arpa.emr.it
Outline
Box verification (Tesini)
Weather dependent verification (Mezzasalma)
Only grid-points surrounded by obs are considered
Box verification (0.4°x0.4°) over N-Italy
LamiN OPE (35 lev, Nudging) vs LamiP (OPE+prognostic precipitation)
Soglia 1
Soglia 10
Soglia 5
Soglia 20
MED
Nobs ~ 700 Nobs ~ 80
Nobs ~ 200 Nobs ~ 25
Soglia 1
Soglia 10
Soglia 5
Soglia 20
MED
Nobs ~ 900 Nobs ~ 120
Nobs ~ 300Nobs ~ 25
Soglia 1
Soglia 10
Soglia 5
MED
Nobs ~ 120 Nobs ~ 12
Nobs ~ 40
Weather dependent verification over Emilia-Romagna warning areas
Since Autumn 2003
Average of precipitation over homogeneous areas
Direct feedbacks on the operational interpretation of model output
1
8
7
6
5
4
3 2M. Cimone^
2173 m
Adriaticsea
River Po
Emilia Romagna’s warning areas
Each area contains ~30 LAMI grid points~3000 Km2
Observations vs forecasts (autumn trough spring)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Observations (mm)
For
ecas
ts (
mm
)Area average precipitation over warning areas, mm/24h, 2003-2005
Observations vs forecasts: mountains
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Observations (mm)
For
ecas
ts (
mm
)Area average precipitation over warning areas, mm/24h, 2003-2005
Observations vs forecasts: valley
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Observations (mm)
For
ecas
ts (
mm
)Area average precipitation over warning areas, mm/24h, 2003-2005
strong events with area average precipitation over a warning area > 20 mm/24h
Bias distribution (mm) per wind direction
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
0
45
90
135
180
225
270
315
1
10
12
0
1
17
8
0
Bias distribution (mm) per wind directionMean wind speed > 10 m/s
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
0
45
90
135
180
225
270
315
0
8 (3 low elev. snowfalls)
4
0
0
13
5
0
Precipitation bias with SW wind at 700 hPa > 10 m/s
-62%-62%
-20%-20%
17%17%
33%33%
N.B. Only one year of data
Precipitation bias with NE wind at 700 hPa > 10 m/s
