September, 25 2008

Macro Program 1 – EmbrapaNational Challenge

SCAF - Future Agriculture Scenario Simulation

based on Regionalized Climate Change Projections

Dr. Gregory Jones and

Dr. Jorge Tonietto Visit

Firsts Future Agriculture Scenarios

Model(s)Input Data Simulation & Analysis

Modeling/Simulation Process

Climate Information:

P, T, Water Def.

Agrometorological Crop Database:

• Cycle and phenological phases• Culture Coef. (Kc)• Phenological critical phase• Soil Water Retention• Root Zone• Definition of cutting criteria by culture, in terms of water consumption

Planting Date Definition based on:

Integraion indexes

WRSI = ETR/ETM

Rain excess probability on harvest

Water Deficit

High Temperatures

Low Temperatures

Climate Information:

P, T, Water Def.

Agrometorological Crop Database:

• Cycle and phenological phases• Culture Coef. (Kc)• Phenological critical phase• Soil Water Retention• Root Zone• Definition of cutting criteria by culture, in terms of water consumption

IPCC 2001 IPCC 2007

Planting Date Definition based on:

Integraion indexes

WRSI = ETR/ETM

Rain excess probability on harvest

Water Deficit

High Temperatures

Low Temperatures

Model(s)Input Data Simulation & Analysis

Climate Information:

P (+5%, +10%, +15%),

T (+1°C, +3°C, +5,8°C)

Water Def.

Agrometorological Crop Database:

• Cycle and phenological phases• Culture Coef. (Kc)• Phenological critical phase• Soil Water Retention• Root Zone• Definition of cutting criteria by culture, in terms of water consumption

Modeling/Simulation Process

CoffeeCoffee

Condition

Production1,000 x bags (60 Kg)

TOTAL MINAS GERAIS PARANÁ SÃO PAULO

Atual 26.231 18.660 2.500 5.071+ 1°C 22.262,5 15.174 2.910 4.178,5

Difference -3.968,5 -3.486 +410 -892,5 US$ 94.6 /bag: (US$ 375,420,100/year)

Tabela 1 –Coffee production (60Kg bags) in the states of Minas Gerais, Paraná e SãoPaulo and possible alterations due to elevation in temperature of 1C (15 years). Damagein economy close to US$ 375 million per year.

Current

Actuation FrontierProjectInteractions

Climate Changes – IPCC Scenarios

Environmental Condition Monitoring: - trend evolution - basin water balance - land use change - droughts and floods

- agro & forest burning - desertification

Trend Analysis: T, P, extreme events

Crop / Animal

Pests & Mutualists

Decease & e Symbionts

Soil Sta

nda

rd D

evel

opm

ent

Und

er T

incr

ease

Und

er [

CO

2]

incr

ease

Und

er P

incr

ease

Und

er P

dec

reas

e

Agro/Forest System Modeling(parameterization e simulation)

ProductiveSystems

Products & Residue

Processem.

C/CO2 Eq

Balance Agr

o/F

ores

t S

cena

rios

De

finiti

on

Fou

ndin

g f

orm

C M

arke

t &

Env

ironm

ent

al S

ervi

ces;

Tec

hnol

ogy

Tra

nsfe

r &

Pu

blic

Pol

icy

Mitigation:- product. syst.

change and crop substit.- C stock on Flor./Soil/Agr

- deforestation and burn reduction- altern.

energy and biofuel.

Risk and Sustainability Analysis - Social, Economic & Environment

Met

eorD

BA

gro

gase

sA

gro

ener

gy P

lat.

Adaptation:- new product

systems- biotechnology

-- genetic melioration (T, drought and flood resist. varieties)--genomic

-- nanoseq-- gene prosp.

-- new technol.- new public

policy

Soi

l DB

Program on Climate Change and Tropical Agriculture – New Projects ProposalsProgram on Climate Change and Tropical Agriculture – New Projects Proposals

What has been proposed?

SCAF - Future Agriculture Scenario Simulation

based on Regionalized Climate Change Projections

Execution time: 4 years (2009 – 2012)

Leader: CNPTIA - Giampaolo Queiroz Pellegrino

Team: >100 researchers, ~ 30 different Embrapa units, > 10

other Brazilian research institutions

Field Experiments

Growth Chamber

FACE

Integrating production and

pest/diseases modeling

Simulation process

Forms of disclosure:

uncertainty / probability

Economic Analysis

How can we advance?

Data from Global and

Regional Circulation Models

and "Downscaling“: RegCM3,

Price, ETA; ~ 10 IPCC models;

+ Brazilian Model (20km)

Statistical simulation of the

near future climate scenario

based on historical data. Data

quality.

Temporal scale: daily,

decendial, monthly ...

Stochastic Modeling

Production Modeling

Process Modeling including

physiological processes:

photosynthesis and respiration

Physiological Processes:

Effect of T / fertilization by CO2

Technological Advancement:

Genetics / production

techniques

Input Data Models Simulation/Analysis

Project MP1 - SCAFHypothesis

The main hypothesis on this project is that climate change impacts on the main

Brazilian crops are going to induce new agriculture, forest & livestock future

scenarios. These future scenarios will configure a new production matrix and

geography and will affect national economy, being possible to analyze and

quantify them by using simulation techniques, fed by regional and global climate

change scenarios, and economic analysis methods to reach productive matrix

optimization.

Project MP1 - SCAFTechnical-Scientific Questions

To test this hypothesis, we pose some technical-scientific questions:

1. How to regionalize, or downscale, global climate change projections to increase spatial and temporal

agriculture scenario resolution?

2. Extreme event frequency increase is already detectable over the Brazilian different regions? How to

include this trend on future agriculture scenario simulation?

3. What are the changes on Brazilian crop physiology induced by CO2 concentration and temperature

increase? How to consider these changes on crop modeling and scenarios simulation?

4. How to estimate and consider the technological advancements on crop modeling and scenarios

simulation?

5. Which are the better computational tools and information technology to simulate and publish resultant

scenarios over the web?

6. Based on each future agriculture scenarios which productive matrix will be more likely to happen and

what would be its economic impact on Brazilian economy?

Project MP1 - SCAFGeneral Objective

Assess and quantify the impacts caused by global climate

change on the major economic crop in Brazil, by means of

future agricultural scenarios simulation based on

projections of future regionalized climate scenarios,

indicating strategic guidelines for the new productive

configuration.

Project MP1 - SCAFSpecific Objectives:

- To detect trends of climate change using global and regional circulation models and

stochastic models to determine future climate scenarios.

- To develop projection technology and simulation models to assess the impacts of global

climate change on the main crops of grain, industrial, fruit, fodder and forest in Brazil.

- To quantify the economic impact of likely changes in agricultural scenarios as a function of

the climate change scenarios regionally adapted to Brazilian conditions, defining optimized

crop configuration for sustainable production to face the global climate changes.

- To analyze, develop and operate high-performance computing platform for integration of

climate scenarios and crop models for the simulation of future agricultural scenarios to be

generated

President

(Project Leader)

Vice-President

(Project Vice-Leader)

Internal Community Representatives

(Component Project Leaders)

External Community Representatives

(University, Research, Government)

MANAGER COMMITTEE

CP

7 –

FA

Sc

Pas

ture

/ Fo

dd

er

(Bra

ch. b

riza

nta

, Pan

icu

m, C

ench

rus,

Lu

lium

e f

od

der

cac

tus)

CP

6 –

FA

Sc

Fo

rest

Tre

es(P

inu

s, E

uca

lyp

tus,

Mim

osa

sca

bre

lla A

caci

a m

ern

sii,

Sch

yzo

lob

ium

am

azo

nic

um

, Scl

ero

lob

ium

pan

icu

latu

m ,

Tec

ton

a g

ran

dis

, Hev

ea b

rasi

lien

sis

and

Ara

uca

ria)

CP

5 –

FA

Sc

Fru

its

(pea

ch, a

pp

le, p

ear,

gra

pes

, ban

ana,

man

go

e c

oco

nu

t)

CP

4–F

AS

c In

du

stri

al c

rop

s

(cas

tor

bea

n, c

ott

on

, su

nfl

ow

er,

cass

ava,

sug

arca

ne,

ora

ng

e)

CP

3 –

FA

Sc

Gra

ins

(so

ybea

n, w

hea

t, c

orn

, so

rgh

um

, ric

e &

bea

n)

CP1 – Network management

(Project execution and infra-structure)

CP2 – Trend analysis

CP8 – Economic Analysis of Future Agricultural Scenarios

CP9 – Information Technology for Database and Simulation

Crops been simulated on two other projects:

GOF Embaixada Britânica and Petrobrás

CP – Component Project (Action Plan)

FASc – Future Agricultural Scenarios

Component Projects – Action Plans CP1 - Management: Technical and administrative management; and

strategic management (interaction with University, Research,

Government, Funding Agencies)

CP8 - Economy: organization / management of economic

information; economic analysis of the current productive matrix; and

an economic analysis of future scenarios and expansion trends.

CP9 - Information Technology: Solution for high performance

computing simulation; modeling of BD; and Development of

Simulator.

Activities of Component Projects for Crops

Component Project T e

CO2 i

ncre

ase

expe

rimen

ts

"Em

piric

" M

odel

ing

Gro

wth

Mod

elin

g

Clim

ate

Risk

Si

mul

ation

Char

acte

rizati

on a

nd

Anal

ysis

of F

utur

e Ag

ricul

ture

Sce

nario

s

Qua

ntific

ation

of

Vuln

erab

ility

e

Tech

nolo

gica

l Ad

vanc

es

Gro

wth

and

Dis

ease

M

odel

Inte

grati

on

Oth

er S

peci

fic

Activ

ities

CP3 - Grain * * * * * *CP4 - Industrial + + + * * *CP5 - Fruit + + + * * * +

CP6 - Forest + + + * * * +

CP7 - Fodder + + + * * *

* All crops+ Some crops

Actuation FrontierProjectInteractions

Climate Changes – IPCC Scenarios

Environmental Condition Monitoring: - trend evolution - basin water balance - land use change - droughts and floods

- agro & forest burning - desertification

Trend Analysis: T, P, extreme events

Crop / Animal

Pests & Mutualists

Decease & e Symbionts

Soil Sta

nda

rd D

evel

opm

ent

Und

er T

incr

ease

Und

er [

CO

2]

incr

ease

Und

er P

incr

ease

Und

er P

dec

reas

e

Agro/Forest System Modeling(parameterization e simulation)

ProductiveSystems

Products & Residue

Processem.

C/CO2 Eq

Balance Agr

o/F

ores

t S

cena

rios

De

finiti

on

Fou

ndin

g f

orm

C M

arke

t &

Env

ironm

ent

al S

ervi

ces;

Tec

hnol

ogy

Tra

nsfe

r &

Pu

blic

Pol

icy

Mitigation:- product. syst.

change and crop substit.- C stock on Flor./Soil/Agr

- deforestation and burn reduction- altern.

energy and biofuel.

Risk and Sustainability Analysis - Social, Economic & Environment

Met

eorD

BA

gro

gase

sA

gro

ener

gy P

lat.

Adaptation:- new product

systems- biotechnology

-- genetic melioration (T, drought and flood resist. varieties)--genomic

-- nanoseq-- gene prosp.

-- new technol.- new public

policy

Soi

l DB

Program on Climate Change and Tropical Agriculture – New Projects ProposalsProgram on Climate Change and Tropical Agriculture – New Projects Proposals

Thanks for your attention!