SELECTION OF WATER QUALITY MONITORING SITES and CSU’s STARMAP

PAGE # PAGE # 11 NWQMCNWQMCDecember 11, 2002December 11, 2002

SELECTION OF WATER QUALITY MONITORING SITES

and

CSU’s STARMAP

byN. Scott Urquhart

Department of StatisticsColorado State University

Director of STARMAP


EPA’s CURRENT GUIDANCE for 305b

States and territories are encouraged to use probabilistic designs for water quality assessments and to include reports of these assessments with their Integrated Reports.

SOURCE: The Total Maximun Load (TMDL) SOURCE: The Total Maximun Load (TMDL) Program, Office of Water, November Program, Office of Water, November

19,19,2001. Memorandum concerning 2001. Memorandum concerning

“2002“2002Integrated Water Quality Monitoring Integrated Water Quality Monitoring

andandAssessment Report Guidance”Assessment Report Guidance”


STARMAP FUNDING

EPA EPA OFFICE OF RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT NOT FUNDED BY OFFICE OF WATER ROUTINE (REQUIRED) DISCLAIMER:

The work reported here today was developed The work reported here today was developed under the STAR Research Assistance Agreement under the STAR Research Assistance Agreement CR-829095 awarded by the U.S. Environmental CR-829095 awarded by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to Colorado State Protection Agency (EPA) to Colorado State University. This presentation has not been formally University. This presentation has not been formally reviewed by EPA. The views expressed here are reviewed by EPA. The views expressed here are solely those of presenter and the STARMAP, the solely those of presenter and the STARMAP, the Program he represents. EPA does not endorse any Program he represents. EPA does not endorse any products or commercial services mentioned in this products or commercial services mentioned in this presentation.presentation.


HOW SHOULD WATER QUALITY MONITORING SITES BE

SELECTED? Depends on Depends on OBJECTIVES OBJECTIVES

Evaluating the effect of a known point source Evaluate quality above and below point sourceEvaluate quality above and below point source

Trying to find unidentified point source Start from known presence of “pollutant”Start from known presence of “pollutant” Work upstream checking concentration of “pollutant”Work upstream checking concentration of “pollutant”

in each branch.in each branch.

Characterizing all waters in some domain Like for Clean Water Act 305b reportingLike for Clean Water Act 305b reporting Select sites randomly Select sites randomly

Increasingly being done by states Endorsed by EPA’s Office of water More generally, variable probability is possible


STATES ARE BEGINNING TO USE PROBABILITY-BASED SITE SELECTION

States adopting EMAP designs

States evaluating EMAP designs

States considering EMAP designs

Courtesy of Steve Paulsen, Courtesy of Steve Paulsen, EPAEPA


QUICK ILLUSTRATION

To investigate flow status of stream To investigate flow status of stream tracestraces

identified as intermittent:identified as intermittent:

Sampling frame: USGS/EPA National Hydrography Dataset (NHD)

100 sites in each state the 12 states in EPA Regions 8, 9, & 10.



Not Supporting

13%

FullySupporting

87%

Traditional Targeted Monitoring

FullySupporting

13%

Not Supporting

87%

Probability Survey

Fully Supporting

75%

Not Supporting

25%

Traditional Targeted Monitoring

Fully Supporting

95%

NotSupporting

5%

Probability Survey

IMPORTANCE OF EMAP-TYPE DESIGNS

Condition of a State’s streams using different designs

STATE B

STATE A


NORTH EAST LAKES STUDIES

EMAP NORTHEAST LAKES PILOTEMAP NORTHEAST LAKES PILOT PROBABILITY SAMPLE OF ALL LAKES IN THE

NORTHEASTERN US SECCHI TRANSPARENCY EVALUATED (AMONG

MANY RESPONSES)

GREAT AMERICAN “DIP-IN” LAKESGREAT AMERICAN “DIP-IN” LAKES 5,000 PARTICIPANTS IN VARIOUS LAKE

MONITORING PROGRAMS (US-WIDE) VOLUNTEERS WERE ASKED TO EVALUATE

SECCHI TRANSPARENCY IN “THEIR” LAKES BETWEEN 7/1/95 AND 7/9/95 (AND AGAIN IN 1996)


NORTH EAST LAKES STUDIES - II

ONE INFORMATION SOURCEONE INFORMATION SOURCE SAMPLE REPRESENTATIVENESS: A MUST

FOR RELIABLE REGIONAL LAKE CONDITION ESTIMATES OF LAKE CONDITION

by S.A. Peterson, N. S. Urquhart, and E. B. Welshby S.A. Peterson, N. S. Urquhart, and E. B. Welsh Environmental Science and Technology Environmental Science and Technology 33:33: 1559 - 1565. 1559 - 1565. (1999) (1999)


SIZE OF NORTH EAST LAKES STUDIES

EMAP NORTHEAST LAKES PILOTEMAP NORTHEAST LAKES PILOT 312 LAKES SAMPLED

GREAT AMERICAN “DIP-IN” LAKESGREAT AMERICAN “DIP-IN” LAKES 422 LAKES REPORTED FOR NORTHEAST

POINT: THESE TWO DATA SETS ARE OF POINT: THESE TWO DATA SETS ARE OF FAIRLY SIMILAR SIZEFAIRLY SIMILAR SIZE





SECCHI DEPTH IN LAKES EVALUATED BY BOTH

EMAP and “DIP-IN”


ESTIMATED CUMULATIVE DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION OF SECCHI

DEPTH, EMAP AND “DIP-IN”


CONCLUSIONS

THE SHORTCOMINGS OF A THE SHORTCOMINGS OF A CONVENIENCE COLLECTION OF SITES CONVENIENCE COLLECTION OF SITES CANNOT BE OVERCOME BY EITHERCANNOT BE OVERCOME BY EITHER ABSENCE OF A PLAN TO “BIAS” THE

SITUATIONS EXAMINED, or LARGE DATA SETS

==> SEVERELY LIMITS THE BREADTH OF ANY==> SEVERELY LIMITS THE BREADTH OF ANY INFERENCES WHICH CAN BE DRAWN INFERENCES WHICH CAN BE DRAWN FROM FROM

RESAMPLING STUDIESRESAMPLING STUDIES BOOTSTRAPPING JACKKNIFING


A PROGRAM IN

STATISTICAL SURVEY DESIGN AND ANALYSIS

FOR AQUATIC RESOURCES

STARMAP: THE PROGRAM AT STARMAP: THE PROGRAM AT

COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITYCOLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY

SPACE-TIME AQUATIC RESOURCES MODELING AND ANALYSIS PROGRAM


SUMMARY OF BACKGROUNDfor

STARMAP Probability-based surveys of aquatic Probability-based surveys of aquatic

resources have a role and will be resources have a role and will be implementedimplemented

Important associated questionsImportant associated questions How should we combine

Probability survey data with Probability survey data with Data from purposefully picked sites?Data from purposefully picked sites?

How can we incorporate remotely sensedinformation (satellite) with ground data?

Role of landscape data (GIS) is? How can we make accurate predictions of water

quality at unvisited sites, using all of above?


STARMAP’S MAJOR OBJECTIVES

TO ADVANCE THE SCIENCE OFTO ADVANCE THE SCIENCE OFSTATISTICS TO ADDRESS SUCHSTATISTICS TO ADDRESS SUCHQUESTIONSQUESTIONS

TECHNIQUES OF HIERARCHICAL SURVEYDESIGN AND ALLIED TECHNIQUES

SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL MODELING BAYESIAN METHODOLOGYBAYESIAN METHODOLOGY

TO DEVELOP AND EXTEND THEOP AND EXTEND THEEXPERTISE ON DESIGN ANDEXPERTISE ON DESIGN ANDANALYSIS TO THE STATES ANDANALYSIS TO THE STATES ANDTRIBESTRIBES


STARMAP’S VISION

PERSPECTIVE: A SEARCHING ANALYSIS OF A REAL,

MODERATELY COMPLEX, DATA SET ALMOST ALWAYS GENERATES QUESTIONS WHOSE ANSWER CALLS FOR AN EXTENSION OF EXISTING STATISTICAL THEORY OR

METHODOLOGY.


STARMAP PROJECTS

COMBINING ENVIRONMENTAL DATACOMBINING ENVIRONMENTAL DATASETS - JENNIFER HOETINGSETS - JENNIFER HOETING

LOCAL ESTIMATION - JAY BREIDTLOCAL ESTIMATION - JAY BREIDT

INDICATOR DEVELOPMENT - DAVEINDICATOR DEVELOPMENT - DAVETHEOBALD (CSU’S Natural THEOBALD (CSU’S Natural

ResourcesResourcesEcology Lab) Ecology Lab)

OUTREACH - SCOTT URQUHARTOUTREACH - SCOTT URQUHART This is why I am here


COORDINATION - EXTERNAL TO CSU/OSUCONTINUED

COLLABORATOR COMMUNITIESCOLLABORATOR COMMUNITIES SUB-STATE REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL AUTHORITIESSUB-STATE REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL AUTHORITIES EPA PERSONNELEPA PERSONNEL

REGIONS 8, 9 & 10 HEADQUARTERS

» OFFICE OF RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT

» OFFICE OF WATER

» TRIBAL SCIENTIFIC COUNCIL EPA LABS

» …..


COORDINATION - EXTERNAL TO CSU/OSUCONTINUED 2

COLLABORATOR COMMUNITIESCOLLABORATOR COMMUNITIES EPA PERSONNELEPA PERSONNEL

… EPA LABS

» WESTERN ECOLOGY LAB - CORVALLIS

» MIDWESTERN ECOLOGY LAB - DULUTH, MN

» EASTERN ECOLOGY LAB

» ECOSYSTEMS RESEARCH DIVISION

» LAS VEGAS LAB - LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY STATE PERSONNEL

» MAINLY AT OSU, SO FAR


A CROSS-PROJECT THRUST

FLOW AND FLOW STATUS FLOW AND FLOW STATUS EPA DIRECTIVES TO STATES ANDEPA DIRECTIVES TO STATES AND

TRIBES TRIBES PROBABILITY SAMPLING

OBSTACLES TO ACCURATEOBSTACLES TO ACCURATEPROBABILITY-BASED SAMPLINGPROBABILITY-BASED SAMPLING


FLOW AND FLOW STATUS

FLOW - AN INDICATOR OF BASE FLOWFLOW - AN INDICATOR OF BASE FLOW QUANTITY QUANTITY

FLOW STATUSFLOW STATUS PERENNIAL NON-PERENNIAL

CLIENT: STATE AND TRIBAL WATERCLIENT: STATE AND TRIBAL WATERQUALITY AGENCIESQUALITY AGENCIES

REPORTING UNDER 305b OF CLEANWATER ACT


A MAJOR PROBLEM FOR PROBABILITY-BASED SAMPLING OF

WATER BODIES PROBABILITY-BASED SELECTION OF SITES

RELIES ON A “FRAME” OR LIST OF POTENTIAL SITES

THE NATIONAL HYDROGRAPHY DATASET (NHD) - BASED ON “BLUE LINES” ON USGS MAPS IS THE ONLY PRACTICALLY AVAILABLE FRAME MATERIALS

MAJOR PROBLEM = FRAME ERRORSMAJOR PROBLEM = FRAME ERRORS


FRAME ERRORSTO BE DOCUMENTED SHORTLY

WATER BODY SIZEWATER BODY SIZE IMPORTANCE OF SIZE WILL BE ADDRESSED

SHORTLY

FLOW STATUS -- re PERENNIALFLOW STATUS -- re PERENNIAL IDENTIFIED AS PERENNIAL, BUT NOT

WASTES EFFORT OF FIELD CREWSWASTES EFFORT OF FIELD CREWS

IDENTIFIED AS NON-PERENNIAL, BUT REALLY IS PERENNIAL

MISSED RESOURCEMISSED RESOURCE INACCURATE ASSESSMENTINACCURATE ASSESSMENT


EMAP-West Stream/river Length(km ± 95% CI)

from Peck, et al (2002) - EMAP symposium

FFrraammee SSoouurrcceeRRFF33 FFrraammee

SSiizzeeEvaluated“Perennial”

EvaluatedNon- perennial

RF3 CodedPerennial

(Perennial Survey)

656,706501,06015,590

128,32812,709

RF3 CodedNon- perennial

(Non- perennial Survey)

1,628,980112,53721,278

1,469,27763,515

Total2,285,686 613,597

26,3781,597,605

64,774







RF3 CodedPerennial

(Perennial Survey)

656,706501,06015,590

128,32812,709



1,628,980112,53721,278

1,469,27763,515

Total2,285,686 613,597

26,3781,597,605

64,774







RF3 CodedPerennial

(Perennial Survey)

656,706501,06015,590

128,32812,709



1,628,980112,53721,278

1,469,27763,515

Total2,285,686 613,597

26,3781,597,605

64,774


THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION

QUESTIONS and/or COMMENTS ARE WELCOME



FUNDING SOURCE

ALL OF THE WORK REPORTED HERE TODAYALL OF THE WORK REPORTED HERE TODAY was was

developed under the STAR Research Assistance Agreement CR-developed under the STAR Research Assistance Agreement CR-829095 awarded by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 829095 awarded by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to Colorado State University, or CR-829096(EPA) to Colorado State University, or CR-829096 awarded to awarded to Oregon State University. These presentations have not been Oregon State University. These presentations have not been formally reviewed by EPA. The views expressed here are solely formally reviewed by EPA. The views expressed here are solely those of authors and the respective Programs. EPA does not those of authors and the respective Programs. EPA does not endorse any products or commercial services mentioned in these endorse any products or commercial services mentioned in these presentations.presentations.


THIS TALK

STARMAPSTARMAP OBJECTIVES AND VISION PROJECTS COORDINATION

A CROSS-PROJECT THRUSTA CROSS-PROJECT THRUST DEVELOP MODELS & METHODS TO

SUPPORT STATE & TRIBAL USE OF PROBABILITY-BASED STATE & TRIBAL USE OF PROBABILITY-BASED

SITE SELECTIONSITE SELECTION


STARMAP’S VISIONCONTINUED

SUCH RESEARCH OPPORTUNITIESWILL BECOME PROBLEMSATTACKED BY

IN ORDER OF COMPLEXITY MASTERS STUDENTS DOCTORAL STUDENTS POST-DOCTORAL FELLOWS AFAFFILIATED FACULTY SUPERVISORS


STARMAP’S VISIONCONTINUED - 2

THE IDENTIFICATION OF THOSEQUESTIONS REQUIRES

A STRONG WORKING RELATIONSHIPBETWEEN

THE STATISTICIAN AND THE (SUBJECT MATTER) SCIENTIST

STARMAP WILL FOSTER SUCHRELATIONSHIPS


STARMAP’S FUNDING ALLOCATION(ALL 12-MONTH BASIS)

DIRECTOR - 0.60 FTEDIRECTOR - 0.60 FTE FACULTY - 0.75 FTEFACULTY - 0.75 FTE GRADUATE STUDENTS - 3 FTE GRADUATE STUDENTS - 3 FTE POST DOCTORAL FELLOWS - 2 FTEPOST DOCTORAL FELLOWS - 2 FTE STAFF 1.00 FTE - 2 YEARS, ONLYSTAFF 1.00 FTE - 2 YEARS, ONLY AMPLE FUNDS FOR COLLABORATIONAMPLE FUNDS FOR COLLABORATION

& PROFESSIONAL TRAVEL& PROFESSIONAL TRAVEL SUBCONTRACTORS ( $185K $120K)SUBCONTRACTORS ( $185K $120K)


COORDINATION

MAJOR RESPONSIBILITY OF BOTHMAJOR RESPONSIBILITY OF BOTHPROGRAM DIRECTORSPROGRAM DIRECTORS

CSU/OSU - EACH DIRECTOR IS FUNDED ON THE OTHERS’ ADMIN BUDGET

INTERCHANGE VISITSINTERCHANGE VISITS EX: STEVENS & GITELMAN AT CSU IN JANUARY THESE JOINT CONFERENCES

FREQUENT E-MAILS & PHONE TALKSFREQUENT E-MAILS & PHONE TALKS

DIRECTORS HAVE VISITEDSUBCONTRACTORS


COORDINATION - AT CSU FREQUENT COMMUNICATIONFREQUENT COMMUNICATION

AMONG ALL PI’SAMONG ALL PI’S SEVERAL JOINT PLANNING MEETINGS

LAST FALL SEMINAR LAST SPRING BACK AND FORTH WITH LANDSCAPE

ECOLOGY INTERACTION WITH AQUATIC

BIOLOGISTS POFF & BLEDSOE AT CSUPOFF & BLEDSOE AT CSU STAR MEETING IN DENVER NEXT WEEKSTAR MEETING IN DENVER NEXT WEEK


COORDINATION - EXTERNAL TO CSU/OSU

COLLABORATOR COMMUNITIESCOLLABORATOR COMMUNITIES ESTUARINE & GREAT LAKES INDICATOR

DEVELOPMENT (EaGLes) ATTEND “ALL HANDS MEETINGS”ATTEND “ALL HANDS MEETINGS”

PRESENT INFORMATION ABOUT OUR PROGRAMS

EMAP - PERSONAL CONTACT SOURCE OF NEW PROBLEMS SOURCE OF NEW PROBLEMS

EX: ACID RAIN REPORT TO CONGRESS - TRENDAT PROBABILITY & “HAND-

PICKED” SITES

» OPPORTUNITIES FOR PROJECTS 1 & 2


COMMENTS ON THE DISTRIBUTION OF WATER BODY SIZES - SO WHAT

FOR “USE” AREA IS IMPORTANTFOR “USE” AREA IS IMPORTANT RECREATION REARING HABITAT - SHRIMP TO GEESE DOMESTIC & INDUSTRIAL WATER

USERS - EVEN VOLUME

FOR PRESERVATION OFFOR PRESERVATION OF“BIOLOGICAL DIVERSITY”“BIOLOGICAL DIVERSITY”NUMBERS ARE VERY IMPORTANTNUMBERS ARE VERY IMPORTANT


COMMENTS ON THE DISTRIBUTION OF WATER BODY SIZES - SO WHAT II

PROBABILITY-BASED SAMPLING HAS TO PROBABILITY-BASED SAMPLING HAS TO BALANCE NUMBER AGAINST SIZEBALANCE NUMBER AGAINST SIZE REGARDLESS OF WATER BODY TYPE THIS PRECLUDES SIMPLE RANDOM

SAMPLING

CONSEQUENCE: VARIABLE CONSEQUENCE: VARIABLE PROBABILITY/VARIABLE DENSITYPROBABILITY/VARIABLE DENSITYSAMPLING HAS TO BE USED SAMPLING HAS TO BE USED


PREREQUISITE FOR ACCURATE SITE SELECTION

AN ACCURATE FRAME SPATIALLY (REGIONAL) CONSISTENCY CRITICAL FOR CREDIBILITY AMONG

WATER RESOURCE MANAGERS

THE NEED:GOOD PREDICTORS OF THE NEED:GOOD PREDICTORS OF WATER BODY SIZE PERENNIAL STATUS


PREDICTION OF WATERBODY SIZE

INITIAL EFFORT - STREAMS - MAHAINITIAL EFFORT - STREAMS - MAHA OVERCOMES LIMITATIONS OF

STRAHLER ORDERSTRAHLER ORDER REGIONAL INCONSISTENCIES DUE TOREGIONAL INCONSISTENCIES DUE TO

VARIABLE DENSITY OF “BLUE LINES”VARIABLE DENSITY OF “BLUE LINES”ON USGS MAPS (SEE MAP ON THE ON USGS MAPS (SEE MAP ON THE

WALL)WALL)

INITIAL EFFORT: GET WATERSHED AREA PREDICTOR CHARACTERISTICS GAUGED FLOW (PERHAPS ONLY “BASE FLOW”)


PREDICTION OF PERENNIAL STATUS

IMMEDIATELY AVAILABLE DATAIMMEDIATELY AVAILABLE DATA EMAP WESTERN PILOT STUDY

SURVEY OF TRACES LABELED “NON-PERENNIAL”SURVEY OF TRACES LABELED “NON-PERENNIAL” 100 PER WESTERN STATE; DATA NOW AT CSU STARMAP NOW COMPILING ASSOCIATED

LANDSCAPE INFORMATION SITE EVALUATION FROM SITES SELECTED ON SITE EVALUATION FROM SITES SELECTED ON

TRACES LABELED “PERENNIAL”TRACES LABELED “PERENNIAL” ON GOING WORK IN EMAP-WEST


PREDICTION OF PERENNIAL STATUS:OTHER POTENTIAL DATA SOURCES

MAIA - ORIGINAL SAMPLINGMAIA - ORIGINAL SAMPLINGINCLUDED ALL TRACES INCLUDED ALL TRACES

REGARDLESS OF PERENNIAL CLASS

OTHER SURVEYSOTHER SURVEYS REGION 7 VARIOUS STATES

OTHER SURVEYS POSSIBLE IFOTHER SURVEYS POSSIBLE IFMETHODOLOGY WORKSMETHODOLOGY WORKS


EXPECTED OUTPUTS

MODELS TO INCORPORATE INTOMODELS TO INCORPORATE INTOSITE SELECTION PROGRAMSSITE SELECTION PROGRAMS

MORE GENERALLY, STATISTICAL MORE GENERALLY, STATISTICAL METHODS TO SUPPORT THOSEMETHODS TO SUPPORT THOSEMODELSMODELS

A RANGE OF GIS TOOLS USEFULA RANGE OF GIS TOOLS USEFULFOR AQUATIC MONITORINGFOR AQUATIC MONITORING

CONTINUEDCONTINUED


EXPECTED OUTPUTS

...... AN EXPERIENCE BASE AN EXPERIENCE BASE

FUTURE GENERATIONS OF ENVIRONMENTAL STATISTICIANS

ORIENTED TOWARD AQUATIC SCIENCESORIENTED TOWARD AQUATIC SCIENCES


QUESTIONS ARE WELCOME


NEXT SPEAKER

JENNIFER HOETING JENNIFER HOETING LEADER OF PROJECT 1 COMBINING ENVIRONMENTAL DATASETS


DISTRIBUTION OF LAKE SIZES IN THE CONTERMINOUS US

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

1 to 5 5 to 10 10 to 50 50 to 500 500 to 5000 >5000

LAKE SIZE CLASS

PR

OP

OR

TIO

N O

F L

AK

ES

(#

)


DISTRIBUTION OF AREA OF LAKES IN THE CONTERMINOUS US BY LAKE SIZE

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

1 to 5 5 to 10 10 to 50 50 to 500 500 to 5000 >5000

LAKE SIZE CLASS

PR

OP

OR

TIO

N O

F L

AK

ES

(A

RE

A)


CONTRAST OF THE DISTRIBUTIONS OF AREA AND NUMBER OF LAKES IN THE CONTERMINOUS

US BY LAKE SIZE

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

1 to 5 5 to 10 10 to 50 50 to 500 500 to 5000 >5000

LAKE SIZE CLASS

PR

OP

OR

TIO

N O

F L

AK

ES


COMMENTS ON THE DISTRIBUTION OF WATER BODY SIZES

INFORMATION PROVIDED APPLIES TO INFORMATION PROVIDED APPLIES TO ALL LAKES IN THE “LOWER 48”ALL LAKES IN THE “LOWER 48” A SIMILAR DISTRIBUTION OCCURS IN

ALL PARTS OF THE US

OTHER KINDS OF WATER BODIESOTHER KINDS OF WATER BODIES SAME KIND OF PATTERN

STREAMS & RIVERSSTREAMS & RIVERS WETLANDSWETLANDS ESTUARIESESTUARIES

Documents

SELECTION OF WATER QUALITY MONITORING SITES and CSU’s STARMAP