SEB Commodities Monthly May 2010

8/9/2019 SEB Commodities Monthly May 2010

1/22

May 4, 2010

Commodity Research: Bjarne Schieldrop (Head) [email protected] +47 92 48 92 30, Filip [email protected] +46 8 506 230 47

Commodities Monthly

Industrial metals to ease or dive?=

General Forecast: 0-3 M , 4-6 M , 7-12 M Commodities demand to stay robust due to the global economic

recovery but expect downside price corrections Many options to boost activity again if China tightens too far, thus

avoiding extended commodity price slumps

Ample stocks will prevent the price of most commodities frommoving into exponential territory in the short term

Energy Forecast: 0-3 M , 4-6 M , 7-12 M After early April strength Brent crude traded sideways, ending the

month 5.0% higher at $87.44/b European air traffic paralyzed by volcanic ash from the Icelandic

eruption exerted pressure on jet fuel demand in mid April Despite bearish fundamentals, crude oil upside risk remains in

Q2-10 as the seasonal stock downtrend starts and recoveryoptimism continues to drive funds into derivatives

We expect a return to OPECs USD 70-80/b range in Q3-10

Industrial Metals Forecast: 0-3 M , 4-6 M , 7-12 M Prices increased to within 10% of its 08 record highs in mid-April Chinese efforts to cool the property sector and Goldman Sachs

fraud allegations pressured industrial metal prices in April LME stocks were largely stable although nickel and tin stocks fell Increasing forward selling of industrial metals signalled that the

sector is becoming overvalued

Precious Metals Forecast: 0-3 M , 4-6 M , 7-12 M In April gold was supported by a deteriorating European

sovereign debt situation as the Greek crisis reached a criticalpoint and PIIGS debt was further downgraded

Interest rates in western countries remained low while inflationthreatened in Asia, both factors bullish for gold

Gold prices are unlikely to fall below USD 1100/ozt until a long

term solution to PIIGS debt is found, upside risk is substantial Palladium once again outperformed the sector on strong investor,

jewellery and industrial demandAgriculture Forecast: 0-3 M , 4-6 M , 7-12 M In April agricultural commodity prices increased substantially for

the first time this year Indications of a recovery in demand and a slightly bullish WASDE

report from the USDA supported the main crops (corn, wheat andsoybeans) helping to relieve previous deeply bearish sentimentdue to ample stocks and favourable weather

US planting progressed rapidly but planting is a sensitive period Mixed development in soft commodities; cocoa and cotton

advanced while sugar and coffee fell backArrows indicate the expected direction of the price change during the specific period.

N

UBS Bloomberg CMCI Sector Indices(price indices, weekly closing, January 2009 = 100)=

708090

100110120130

140150

160170180190200

jan-09

feb-09

mar-09

apr-09

maj-09

jun-09

jul-09

aug-09

sep-09

okt-09

nov-09

dec-09

jan-10

feb-10

mar-10

apr-10

maj-10

Industrial Metals

Precious Metals

Energy

Agriculture

Performance overview(MSCI World, UBS Bloomberg CMCI Price Indices)

-12-10

-8-6-4-20246

810

Equities

Commodities

Energy

Industrial

metals

Precious

metals

Agriculture

YTD (%) MoM (%)

Winners & Losers last month(closing prices, %)=

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

Steel,Med.

Sugar

Copper

Zinc

AluminiumTin

Coffe,

Arabica

USNatural

Cotton

WTI

USGasoline

Lead

Nickel

Soybeans

USHeatingOil

Brent

Gold

Corn

Silver

Platinum

Cocoa

Wheat

Palladium

Power,Nordic

Power,Cont.

CO2(EUA)

c

=`~=W=_I=pb_=`=o~==


2/22

SEB Commodity Research

GENERAL=

t= ~~= = ~= =~= ~= ~= ~= = ~== = ~= = ~~= ~= NU== I= `= = ~=

= = = = ~I= = == =~= = =~= =eOJNMK=t=`~==~I=~~=====~I=~=~=~== ~~I= = = ~= ~= ~~=~= = ~= ~= = =~==NMB======^K=eI==`==== = = = = =~=== ~==K=t= ~= = ~= ~= =~I= ~= = =

= = ~= K= f=~I= = = = = ~=I= = = = = ~= ~~I== ~= = ~= ~= K=pI=====~===eOJNMK==a==~====~~=I==fjc==~==~~==== = ~= = = = = JK=q~I= = ~= = = = J=~= = ~= ~= = ===~==K=q=fjc=~==^= ~= = = = = =~=~~==~====~= ~= = ~= = = =K=eI==== =~== = = = = = ~=~=K=t==~=~==fjc= I= = ~= ~= ~= ~= =~=~== =~=NMJnO== NMJnP=~=K==a= ^= = ~= ~= == I= = = = =K=f===~===

= `~= ~= bj= ~= = ~= ~= ~== = lb`a= = ~= ~= = rp= =~~K==^= = = ~= = I= == = = = rp= =~= ~= = = ~= ~= == = = = = RKVB= = ^K=`= = = = = = lmb`=rpa=TMJUML==~K=t=tqf====~==~=======~= = = = ~~= ~I= _=

==~=~==~===rpa=UTKVTLK=e=rp= = = = = ~= = ~=== ~= = = tqf= = = = =

~~I= = ~~= ~= = ~== = = = I=~~= = = = = = ~= ==~===K==q===rp=~~=~=== J~= = ^= = = rp=p= ~= b~= `= Epb F=~=~~==~=~~===~= = ~= I= d~=p~K= q= = ~= = ~= J= == ~= = ~= ~= ===~K= d= ~= ~== = = = = ~==~=~==~=K==

t=b=~=======~=MKRBI=~=b==K=c=~I= = d~=~~= = === =~= K=j~I==d= ~=~~= = ~=~= =~= = = = = = = ~=broLrpa= = ^K= `= ~=~= ~= = = ~=== = ==== ~==~=K==

US Dollar Index

(weekly closing)=

71

73

75

77

79

81

83

85

87

89

91

93

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

`~=W=_I=pb_=`=o~==

N


3/22


ENERGY==

_===~==AUOKTUJUTKVTL== ^= = = = RKMB= = ~=AUTKQQLK=f=~=^=====~=j~=~= ==~==~=

~= = rp= I= KK= =~= = fpj= J~~= ~=kcm= ~~K= m= = = ~= ~~= =~= rp= = ~= = ~=~===~~===^~= = ~= = rp= =K=q=~=~====~===pb`==d~=p~==~=àl=~= ~I= =~= ~= == ~~= ~= ~K= q== = = = = == b~~~= ~= =

~==~===K=^=~= ~= = ~= = ~=~~=~=~=~=~=======K=q=== ~= = = == = ~= ^= ~~= = =b~= = = K= p~===tqf==~==~=~= = = = = ^= ~= =~= = = = = == = ~K= q= = = ==~=EtqfL_==~=~=TKULSKRBF= ~= ~= ~~~=

= = ~= ~~= ~== = = ~K= ^= =~= ~= ~= ~= ~====K==q=~=====~~==~=~=~====^= NQ= = = = f~=b~~~= ~= ~= ~= ~= == = ~= ~= = = =b==~=K=^=~=I=~=NMMIMMM== = ~I= = = ~= OMB=

====~=E==~= NB= = ~= = ~FK= t=b~====~~=I=~======~======~K==f= = ^= = = = l= j~= o=EljoF= = = = f~~=b=^=Efb^F===~====~=~==~= EOMMVW= JTM= L== UQKV= LI= OMNMW= HPM= L= = USKS=LFK=lmb`=~==rp=a~==b=EalbF=

~= = = ~= ~= ~= ==== K=`~== = ~= = ~= ~= = fb =

= ~= Jlmb`= = =OMNM= = = OOM= L= = ROKM= LI= ~=~=~======~==~=~===~==== K=lmb`= ~= = ~=~====RRB==j~=K=RSB== c~K= lbà= ~= = ===~=~=PUKQ===OSUR===c~K= d~= ~= = == =SR===j~==RR===c~==~=====RO===TQ=K==^===albI=rp====== PKS= = = ^= ~= = = =~=~~===~==j~K=a~=

= ~= ~= ~= ~~= I=~= TKO= K= d~= == = I= ~= NKO= I= = ~=~~= = = = = = ~K= _== = ~= = = ~== ~= ~= ~~= ~=~~= =~= = = = ===~K==l~I= =bj=~=~= lbà=~== = ^K= ^= = = fb I=`~= = = = ~= ==

~= MKR= L= = OMNMI= ~= = ~== = = = = ~= = ~=~K= bj= ~= K= f~= = =~= = = ~= = = = =~K= `= ~~= = = ~= ~== = ~= = ~= = ~= == K= fI= = = ~= == ~= = = ~= ==~==K==q==~= ==~===== = = ~= ~= = =

~= ~= I= = ~~= == = ~~= ~= = =====~~=K=^=~= = = = ~~= = ~= =~= = = = == ~= = = ~~= = ==NVPMI===~=====lmb`= = rpa= TMJUML= ~K=eI= = ~= ~~= ~=~= = = = = ~=~= ~= EKK= = == = ~~F= =~~K= c= ~= J~= = =~= ~= = ~= = =f~~= ~= = ~= ~= =

O


4/22


~=PM======~K=q==~= ~= = = ^~= = ~~== = = = ~~= ~~=E=~W=NMJnPFI==~==f~~= = K= q= ~= ~= == = = = = = ~K=

^~= ~= ~= = == = = ~= ~= = ~= ~= =~= ~= ~= = ~K= l=~=== ~===~===== = rpa= TMJUML= ~= ~= JnO==~JnPK=eI===~============= ~~= I= k= p~= =====~~==~==~= = = = = ~== = ~= == = = = b~= ==K=lmb`I=KK=p~=^~~I===

= ~= = = = =~=rpa=VMLK=q=~~==~=~====~~==~=~=== = = = ~= = ~= I= ~=~======~~=~==~=~~=I=KK=~=~=QJR=LK==q= rp= ~~= ~= ~= ~= == =^= = ~= = ~=~=~K= a= ~= ~~= =I= = ~= ~= = ~= = = =

~~=NMJ~=~=~=~=~=~=~==~===~====~K=j= ~JJ~= = = == = = = = = ~~= ~=~=~=~=~========~~=K=t== ~==rp= ~~=~=~= ~=~~= ~= = = ~=====~=K==q~=~~=E^=PMFW= _= ~===~==P==LL=~~=K=^=~====~~==~=

=K=c==~===~=~== = ~= = = = ~= = rpa=VML=~K==

c=

=

q=_~=a=f=~=~=====^= ~=~= = = = =~=~= = = s~= ~= _em= _=~= = ~= E~= = ~~F== ~K= `I= = =~=~=~==~==~~K=

eI= `= = = ~= = == = ~= K= a~= = ~=

==p=^~=~=~=~== = ~K= eI= ~= = =~=~====~====~K=_~=`~=~=a=q~=f== = = ^= ~= = == ~= = = = ~= =

~= ~= ~= = ~=~K=j~= ~= = SMJTM= =~=~======K=^=~= == = =b==^~I= t= ^~= ~= = j= b~= ~===~=~==~K==

Freight Indices(BFX, weekly closing, January 2002 = 100)=

01002003004005006007008009001000

11001200130014001500

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500Baltic Dry Index (left axis)

Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (right axis)

Baltic Clean Tanker Index (right axis)

`~=W=_I=pb_=`=o~==

k=m==

^= ~= = = = I= =~= ~= ~= = = = =I= = ~= ~= ~= K=a=^=====~=~==bro=QRJRMLjtK=^=p=~=~= = = ~= = ~= UTB= =~= ~~K= q= = ~~= == ~= ~= = = ==j~=K=q======~===NVI=~==~=~=~=~=~= = ~= = = = = =

= = ~= ~K= c= ~= ~== k= ~~= = = ~== = = = = ~~=~= ~= = = ~= K=k~I= = = NMMB= = I=======^==p= = = = I= =~~= bro= QSKUTLjt= = ^= E=bro= NMKNRLjt= K= j~F= ~= = ~=p==~~=~~==bro=QQKOOLjt=E=bro=NQKUOLjt=K=j~FK==

a= = = = ~= ~= = = =~= =^= E= ~= = K=j~F= = = ~= = =

P


5/22


~K=c======~=== = ~= `l

O= =~= ~K= c=

~= = = = ^K= `~=E^mfO=voJNNF=~=rpa=OML==~=~===rpa=NMMLK=`l

O===aJNN=Ebr^=

aJNNF=~===~=NUB===

~= I= ~= ~= bro= NRKVMLI== = ~= = ~~= = = ~J~===~=~=~==~====k===~==~== ~= = K= ^= = ^= PMI=nPJNM= = ~= bro= QUKVRLjt= E= bro=TKTRLjt= LF= ~= `~JNN= ~= bro=QTKQRLjt=E=bro=UKPRLjt=LFK==t= = = = ~~= = ~= ========~== ~= ~= = = =

=~==K=_===~=~=`l

O===K=b=

= = = = I= = = Jj~==~===K==

Nordic system price and marginal costfor coal fired power generation(EUR/MWh, daily closing)=

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

jan-08

mar-08

maj-08

jul-08

sep-08

nov-08

jan-09

mar-09

maj-09

jul-09

sep-09

nov-09

jan-10

mar-10

Nord Pool YR11

Marginal cost YR11

`~=W=k=mI=oI=pb_=`=o~=

Q


6/22


CRUDE OIL=

Crude oil price(NYMEX/ICE, $/b, front month, weekly closing)=

102030405060708090

100110120130

140150

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

NYMEX WTI

ICE Brent

=

US crude oil stocks(DOE, mb, weekly data)=

300

310

320

330

340

350

360

370

380

j f m a m j j a s o n d

2005-2009 avg.

2009

2010

OIL PRODUCTS=Gasoline and heating oil prices(NYMEX, /gal, front month, weekly closing)=

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

NYMEX Gasoline

NYMEX Heating oil

=

Gasoline and distillate stocks(DOE, mb, weekly data)=

110

120

130140

150

160

170

180

190

200

210

220

230

240

j f m a m j j a s o n d

Gasoline 2005-2009 avg.

Gasoline 2010

Distillate fuel oil 2004-2008 avg.

Distillate fuel oil 2010

=

POWER=

Nordic power price(Nord Pool, /MWh, front quarter, weekly closing)=

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

=

Continental power price(EEX, /MWh, front quarter, weekly closing)=

20253035404550556065707580859095

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

===

`~=W=_I=pb_=`=o~=

R


7/22


CO2 NATURAL GAS=

EUA price(ECX ICE, /t, Dec. 10, weekly closing)

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

=

US natural gas prices(NYMEX, $/MMBtu, front month, weekly closing)=

0123456789

101112

131415

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

==

FUTURES CURVES=WTI(NYMEX, $/b)=

8384

85

86

87

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

jun-1

0

sep-1

0

dec-1

0

mar-

11

jun-1

1

sep-1

1

dec-1

1

mar-

12

jun-1

2

sep-1

2

dec-1

2

mar-

13

jun-1

3

sep-1

3

dec-1

3

mar-

14

jun-1

4

10-03-31

10-04-23

10-04-30

=

Brent(ICE, $/b)=

8283

84858687888990919293949596

jun-1

0

sep-1

0

dec-1

0

mar-

11

jun-1

1

sep-1

1

dec-1

1

mar-

12

jun-1

2

sep-1

2

dec-1

2

mar-

13

jun-1

3

sep-1

3

dec-1

3

mar-

14

jun-1

4

10-03-31

10-04-23

10-04-30

=

Gasoline(NYMEX, /gal)=

210

215

220

225

230

235

240

245

250

255

ma

j-10

aug-1

0

nov-1

0

feb

-11

ma

j-11

aug-1

1

nov-1

1

feb

-12

ma

j-12

aug-1

2

nov-1

2

feb

-13

ma

j-13

10-03-31

10-04-23

10-04-30

=

US natural gas(NYMEX, $/MMBtu)=

3,5

4,0

4,5

5,0

5,5

6,0

6,5

7,0

7,5

8,0

ma

j-10

sep-1

0

jan-1

1

ma

j-11

sep-1

1

jan-1

2

ma

j-12

sep-1

2

jan-1

3

ma

j-13

sep-1

3

jan-1

4

ma

j-14

sep-1

4

jan-1

5

ma

j-15

sep-1

5

jan-1

6

ma

j-16

10-03-31

10-04-23

10-04-30

===

`~=W=_I=pb_=`=o~=

S


8/22


=INDUSTRIAL METALS==

f=^==r_p=_=`j`f=f~=j~= m= f= = = OKTBK= a= == ~= = = = = = === = =`=~=

~= = ~= ~= == = = ~=~K= eI= = = = = == = d~= p~= ~= ~~=~= = `= = = ~= == =~==~= == ~= ~= = = ~= = ~K=q= = ~= = ~= =b~= = = = =~= = = = = = =~= = I= ~= = ~=K= k= = = =

== EHRKNBFI== = ~=EHPKVBFK=q= ===== =E=JQKTBI==JPKVBI=~=JPKMBI==JNKNBFK=

T

=i= j~= b~= EijbF= =~= = ~~I= = = = == = = = = ~I= =~= ~~= ~= K= q= ~==~====^K=p~=== = ~= ~= ~= = = =~~= ~I= ~= = ~= ~== ~= = ~~= = ~= =K= ^= ~= = =^= ~= ~= = =~~~= = ~= K= Ì=~I= = ~= = ~= = =~~~K==f~= ~= = ~= ~= ~== K= m= ~= ~= ~= = == ~= = ~= ~= = ~~== ~= = = =`=~=~=~=~~===lbà= ~= = eOJNMK= t= = == = ~= ~= ~= =

~==K=f===== ~= = = = = = ~=~= = ~= ~= K= eI=`= ~= = = = = == ~= = ~= ~== = ~= = ~I=~= = ~= == ~= = ~= = =~= = K= f= ~I= = =lbà= ~= = = ~= K= t== = = = = = = ~=~= = ~= ^= = ~~= =

lbà=~=~= ~~= ~==K= f~= ~= = ~=

= = = ~= ==K=^==========K==

^=

=

^= = = rpa= ONOSJOQROL== Î= = = = = ~= rpa=OOPNLK= ijb= = ~= ~= == = = = = ~=~~I= ~= ~= = = I=~= K= f= `~I= ~== ~= = = ~~= = ~== = = = ~= K=eI===~=NRB==~I===~= ~= = K= ^= ~= = ~= =

~~~=E========~~= ~F= ~= = = ~=~= = = ~= = ~=~~K= q= ~= = =~==~==^===~== = = = = K= q~=~~= E^= PMFW=^= = ~==~=OO=~=HLJTB=~~==~K=q== = = ~= = ~= =K= c= ~~= EKK= ~= = == = ~~F= = = ~= = =rpa=OPMMLI======~==~==

~===~=rpa=ONRRJONUML==~=~K==

`=

=

`= = = rpa= TPOUJTVTUL= =Î=====~=rpa=TQMQLK=^= ~= ~= = j~I= ijb= ==~=~~==^K=`~=~~= ~= K= m= ~= ~=OMJ= = = ~= ^= ~= = =~==~=====

~=====~K=j~I== ~== = = ~= = ~=======~K=`= = ~= ~~= == ~= = = ~= == ~K= q= = = ===~===~~~==^K= q~= ~~= E^= PMFW= q== J= E= = = = = rpa=TUMML= F= = = ~= ~= J=K= ^=rpa=TOMMJTPMML= ~= = ~= =K= q= = = = = ~~= =~=~=rpa=TUSMLK=

=


9/22


k=

=

k= = = rpa= OQSVOJOTOQRL= =Î= = = = = ~= rpa=OSORPLK= q= = = = = == = ~~= = ^= =

~= ~~= = ~= K= k=~= = = = = ~=~= I== ~= OPJ= I= = = == ~= = = ~= =K=q=~=~~====~===== = ==~== K=eI= =~= = = ~== ~= = ~~I= ~====EkmfFI===~==~==== I=~==`=kmf=======nNJNMK=q== = = = = ~= =

= ~~~= = ^K= q~=~~=E^=PMFW=q=~=~==~== = ~= = = = ~= =~=~==~=~=~=E~==~F==~=~=======J~=K=p======~==c~L^=PUB=~===rpa= OPRTRLK= m= ~= rpa= OSRMML= ~=~= ~= ~= ~= = = = = = = =~K==

w=

=w===rpa=OOQOJOQUVL==Î== == = ~=rpa= OORVLK= ijb== ~= ~= ~= =~=== Jc~I= ~= ~= ~~==~=~K=q==~=~=~~=~===~== ~= ~= ~K= i= == = = ~= = ~== = ~= = = = =^K=q=~=~=~=I=~~=~== =~=I= KK= = ~=K=q~=~~=E^=PMFW=q==

= ~= = c~L^= ~~= =~= = = ~= ~=K=i= = ~= ~=I=~= ~=~==~=rpa=OQRML===~K==

p=

=

ijb=j~~====rpa=QUMJSMQL==Î=====~=rpa= RMULK= ijb= = = K=^= = j~= ~~I= ~= ==~==~==OMNM==~=

==c~I==~==~=~=~~K= f= = ~= = I= ~= ~=

= = ~= = = = ~I== = ~~= = =K=`====~=~====j~==~===~~======~===~=~= ~= = ~= ~= K= j~I=

f~I= = = = ~= = =I=~===~==NRBK=q=ijb=j~~= = = == = ~==~==^K==

U


10/22


ALUMINIUM=

Aluminium price(LME, $/t, front month, weekly closing)=

1000

1250

1500

1750

2000

2250

2500

2750

3000

3250

3500

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

=

Aluminium stocks(LME/COMEX/SHF, tonnes, weekly data)=

0

1000000

2000000

3000000

4000000

5000000

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

SHFE

COMEX

LME

==

COPPER=Copper price(LME, $/t, front month, weekly closing)=

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

=

Copper stocks(LME/COMEX/SHF, tonnes, weekly data)

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

SHFE

COMEX

LME

NICKEL=

Nickel price(LME, $/t, front month, weekly closing)=

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

55000

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Nickel stocks(LME, tonnes, weekly data)=

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

===

`~=W=_I=pb_=`=o~=

V


11/22


ZINC=

Zinc price(LME, $/t, front month, weekly closing)=

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Zinc stocks(LME/SHF, tonnes, weekly data)=

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

800000

900000

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

SHFE

LME

=

LEAD=Lead price(LME, $/t, front month, weekly closing)=

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Lead stocks(LME, tonnes, weekly data)=

0

25000

50000

75000

100000

125000

150000

175000

200000

225000

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

=

TIN=

Tin price(LME, $/t, front month, weekly closing)=

3000

6000

9000

12000

15000

18000

21000

24000

27000

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

=

Tin stocks(LME, tonnes, weekly data)=

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

===

`~=W=_I=pb_=`=o~=

NM


12/22


STEEL=

Steel price(LME Mediterranean, $/t, front month, weekly closing)=

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

feb

-09

apr-

09

jun-0

9

aug-0

9

okt-09

dec-0

9

feb

-10

apr-

10

=

Steel stocks(LME, tonnes, weekly data)=

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

4000045000

50000

55000

jul-08

sep-0

8

nov-0

8

jan-0

9

mar-

09

ma

j-09

jul-09

sep-0

9

nov-0

9

jan-1

0

mar-

10

=

FUTURES CURVES=Aluminium(LME, $/t)=

2200

2250

2300

2350

2400

2450

2500

2550

2600

2650

ma

j-10

aug-1

0

nov-1

0

feb

-11

ma

j-11

aug-1

1

nov-1

1

feb

-12

ma

j-12

aug-1

2

nov-1

2

feb

-13

ma

j-13

aug-1

3

nov-1

3

feb

-14

ma

j-14

10-03-31

10-04-23

10-04-30

=

Copper(LME, $/t)=

6900

7000

7100

7200

7300

7400

7500

7600

7700

7800

7900

maj-10

aug-10

nov-10

feb-11

maj-11

aug-11

nov-11

feb-12

maj-12

aug-12

nov-12

feb-13

maj-13

aug-13

nov-13

feb-14

maj-14

10-03-31

10-04-23

10-04-30

==

Nickel(LME, $/t)=

23000

23500

24000

24500

2500025500

26000

26500

27000

27500

maj-10

aug-10

nov-10

feb-11

maj-11

aug-11

nov-11

feb-12

maj-12

aug-12

nov-12

feb-13

maj-13

aug-13

nov-13

feb-14

maj-14

10-03-31

10-04-23

10-04-30

=

Zinc(LME, $/t)=

2250

2275

2300

2325

23502375

2400

2425

2450

2475

maj-10

aug-10

nov-10

feb-11

maj-11

aug-11

nov-11

feb-12

maj-12

aug-12

nov-12

feb-13

maj-13

aug-13

nov-13

feb-14

maj-14

10-03-31

10-04-23

10-04-30

===

`~=W=_I=pb_=`=o~

NN


13/22


=PRECIOUS METALS==

f=^= =r_p=_= `j`f= m=j~= m= f= = = SKMBK= _===~= = ==~== ~~= ~~= EHNRKUBF= = =

~=EHSKQBFK=p=EHSKOBF==== = EHSKNBF= = ~= = ~=~===rpa=NNRML===~=~==OMNM=K=f===~=====bro=UVMKUML=~=~K=q=~== = ~= = = b~== = = ~= = =~= ~= ~~= = ~K=d= ~= = = ~= ~= J=~= ~= = d~= p~= ~= ~== = ==m~=C=`KI= =~= ~= = = pmao= = =

E==~==bqcFK=

NO

=q= bro= QR= = ~~= = =d= = = br= ~= fjc= ~= ~=~~==~=^K=q=~=~====~= = ~= ~= = = = =~~= ~= ~= = K= q= ~== ~= ~= = = ~~= ~== = ~= ~= = = = =~I=~==~==~=~=~= ~= = = = = = ~~== =~= = ====~==~~K= f=~I= =d==~=====~== = = = = = K= l= = == = = = = d~= = =~===~==~=~== ~= ~= ~= dK=`I=d====== = = K= q= = ~= = =p~~=C=m=====~= = = = __H= EFI= ==~=~=~===br=~=fjc======~=~=~K=p=~= = = = = = = ~=

b~= ~I= ~~= = c~I=p~= ~= d~K= j~=b~=I==~~I=~=~== ~= ~= ~= ~K= e= = = pmao===~=~=====^=~=NNRV= K= d= ~= ~= ~=~= = ~= ~= ~= = ~=~~K= ^= ~= = d= ~= ~= ====~==~== K= ^= = = d= ~=~= = ~= = ~= ~= ~= == = m~I= p~= ~= ~= = mffdp=

~K= j~= = ~~= =p~~= C= m= ~= m~= =

= = ^J= ~= p~== = = ^ K=q=====br=~=fjc==~==bro=NNM==~==d==~=^K= j~= ~= ~= ~= ~=bro=SMM=~=======mffdp=~== K=d===I=== = ==~~= = ~K= f= ~~=~~===~====== = = ~== ~=~= =~==~I======~==~K==f= ~= = = = = I=~== ~= = ~= ===~I===~I=~=

~= = ~= ~= ~K=a==~==I==~== = ~= = ~= = K=f=~======== = I= = = ~=~~= ~=~= == K= f==rpI==c=~~=~===~====~=~=~K=^==~==== = = nPJNMK= f= ^~I= I== = ~= ~= ~= ~== K=pI= ~= = ~= = =~I= KK= = f~= = = ~=

= ~= = K= b= ~=~=~========= = = ~= = ~== = = = = ~=~= = = = = = ~K=l====~~=~==~== = =~= ~= = = = ~= ~==J=~===~=~= ~= = ~= ~K= q= =~= = = = = = ==~K=eI=====~=~~===~=~==~=

=~=~=~~=K==f= ^I= ~~= = ~~= = ~=~=====bqcI=^~== ~= ~= = ~K=m~~=~===~===~===~== ~= OMJ=~K=o==rp=~~=bqc= ==~= NMB= = ~= ~= = = ~=====~=bqc== ~= K= q= bqc= = ~= =~= ~= = = = b~=bqcK= a= = ~~I= =

~~= ~= ~= = ~= ~=


14/22


~= ~= = ~~I= ~= ~=~~==K==q~= ~~I= = E^= PMFW= q= =~==E~===~====~F= = = = ~= ~= rpa= NOOSL=

= E= = = c= ~= rpa= NNURJNNVML=~=~=~==FK==

Gold and selected currencies vs. USD

-8-7-6-5-4

-3-2-1012345678

GOLD EUR JPY GBP SEK RUB

YTD (%) MoM (%)

`~=W=_I=pb_=`=o~==

NP


15/22


GOLD=

Gold price(COMEX, $/ozt, front month, weekly closing)=

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

=

Gold to oil & gold to LME Index ratios(front month, weekly closing)=

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

21

23

25

27

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

0,5

0,6

0,7Gold to oil ratio (left axis)

Gold to LME Index ratio (right axis)

=

SILVER PLATINUM / PALLADIUM=

Silver price(COMEX, $/ozt, front month, weekly closing)=

2

46

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

=

Platinum and palladium prices(COMEX, $/ozt, front month, weekly closing)=

100

300

500

700

900

1100

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

300

550

800

1050

1300

1550

1800

2050

2300

Palladium (left axis)

Platinum (right axis)

==

FUTURES CURVES=

Gold(COMEX, $/ozt)=

1100

1125

1150

1175

1200

1225

12501275

1300

1325

1350

jun-10

sep-10

dec-10

mar-11

jun-11

sep-11

dec-11

mar-12

jun-12

sep-12

dec-12

mar-13

jun-13

sep-13

dec-13

mar-14

jun-14

sep-14

dec-14

10-03-31

10-04-23

10-04-30

=

Silver(COMEX, $/ozt)

17,25

17,50

17,75

18,00

18,25

18,5018,75

19,00

19,25

19,50

maj-10

aug-10

nov-10

feb-11

maj-11

aug-11

nov-11

feb-12

maj-12

aug-12

nov-12

feb-13

maj-13

aug-13

nov-13

feb-14

maj-14

aug-14

nov-14

10-03-31

10-04-23

10-04-30

===

`~=W=_I=pb_=`=o~=

NQ


16/22


AGRICULTURE=

^~= = = = =^= = = r_p= _= `j`f=^~=m=f==PKOBK=l==~== ~= ~= = = =

EHVKOBF= = = = EHSKOBF= ~=~= EHRKOBFK= r= = I= =~=~~=~~=d~=p~=~=~= = = = = = ~~=~K=q=~=====~== t= ^~= p= ~=a~= b~= Et^pabI=^= VF= == = rp= a~= = ^=Erpa^F= ~= = = ~K=eI= = ~= ~= ~=~= = = = I= ~~=~= = ~= ~= ~= ~~=

K==f~= ~= = = = rp= jI=KK=~=~=~=I=~=J~== ~K= q= = ~= = ~==p=^~=~I=~==~= = = ~= = rp= ~~===~= ~= = I=~=~= ~= = = ~= =~~=~===~=~K=l===~I===~=~=~I== = ~= = = ~= =I==~=~======~~===== ~~= K= b= = rp=~= = ~= ~= I=~= = ~= = = = =~K= a~= ~= = =~= = K= f= = =~~= = ~= ~~= = == ~= = = = ~= ~=~= ~= = = = =K=^===~===~==~= = = = f~= h~~= ~==~====~=~K=q=

= = b~~~= = = ~= =~= ~= = = = ~=K= e~= = = ~=h~~= ~= = NR= = ~=b~~~K=q=~===~===~= = = = = ~= =~==~=~=~=~===~K=^====~==~=~=~~I=~=====~====~K=t=== = ~= ~= = = h~~===~K==

=

p~= = = = = ^K= q=f~= ~= = = = ~= = ~= ==~===~=~=== = = ~= ~= = = ~= b=k=K=j~==_~~=~==~= = ~= = K= eI====~=~=~====MVLNM==~==========~====~===~~=~=OMMV==~~K=t====~===~=nPJNM===_~~= ~= ~= ~= = == ~= ~K= `= = ~===OMMV====bj=~K=Ì=f~I====~=I= ~= = = ~= K= q=

~= = = = ~= = = =~= = ~= ~~= = = =~= = = ~= = ~= K=^== = ~= OMMV=~= = ~== K= p~= I= = = == = = = ~= I=~=~=~=~====== ~= = ~= = = ~= ==~=~===~K==

`=

=

`= = = PQRJPSSL= = Î== = = = ~= PSSLK= t^pab=MVLNM= = = = QKMR= = = =NQQKOM= = ESR= ~= = F= = ==I===~==~J==~=~=K=rp==~===~~=~=~===RMB=~I==~==OOB==~=~~=E^= ORFK= ^= = ~= = rp=~= = = = ~= ~== = = ~K= ^= ~==~~==rp=~=====

= = = = ~= ~K=eI= = ~= = ~= ~==~= ~~== = = = == K= q~= ~~= E^= PMFW=q~= ~= = = ~= ~= PQPJPUNL=~K=k==~L===~==K= ^= = = = ~= = =~=K==

t~=

=

t~= = = QRQJQVVL= = Î=====~=QVOLK=^== =t^pabI= MVLNM= == ~== MKVR= = = NVRKUO= = ENMR= ~= =

NR


17/22


F== =K=rp==~=~= ~= = ~= = QPB=~I= = ~= = = ~= ~~= =OTB= E^= ORFK=t= ~= = =~= ~= = I= ~= ~====~K=^==~=

= ~= = = = = =~= ~= = K= q~= ~~=E^=PMFW=q=~===~===I=~===~==~=^===QRML=~=~K=^=~==~==~=RNPL==~===K==

p~=

=

p~===VPSJNMMQL==^I== = = = ~= VVMLK= p~=MVLNM= t^pab= = = ~= =

=OKOV===~=SOKVS==EUV=~==F= = = = ~= ~=~= ~JK= o= p= ^~==~=~J==rp=~=== = == = ~= ==K=b==~=== ~= ~~= = ~= ~= rp==~==K=f=~I=~=p= ^~= = ~= I= ~= == = = b= k= I= =~=~==~=~=====J~K=q~=~~=

E^=PMFW=_====~=~==VUML=~K=q===== = = = = = ==~======~==~~K=m==VPML=======~==VMMLK=

NS


18/22


=

CORN=

Corn price(CBOT, /bu, front month, weekly closing)=

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Corn ending stocks(USDA, yearly data updated monthly)=

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

mt

days of supply

==

WHEAT=

Wheat price(CBOT, /bu, front month, weekly closing)=

200300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Wheat ending stocks(USDA, yearly data updated monthly)=

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

mt

days of supply

SOYBEANS=

Soybean price(CBOT, /bu, front month, weekly closing)=

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Soybean ending stocks(USDA, yearly data updated monthly)=

20

40

60

80

100

120

00/01

01/02

02/03

03/04

04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

mt

days of supply

==

`~=W=_I=pb_=`=o~I=rpa^=

NT


19/22


=

SUGAR COFFEE=

Sugar price(NYBOT, /lb, front month, weekly closing)=

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

=

Coffee price (Arabica)(NYBOT, /lb, front month, weekly closing)=

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

==

=FUTURES CURVES=

Corn(CBOT, /bu)=

340

360

380

400

420

440

maj-10

aug-10

nov-10

feb-11

maj-11

aug-11

nov-11

feb-12

maj-12

aug-12

nov-12

10-03-31

10-04-23

10-04-30

Wheat(CBOT, /bu)=

425

475

525

575

625

675

maj-10

aug-10

nov-10

feb-11

maj-11

aug-11

nov-11

feb-12

maj-12

10-03-31

10-04-23

10-04-30

=

Soybeans(CBOT, /bu)=

910

920

930

940

950960

970

980

990

1000

1010

1020

maj-10

aug-10

nov-10

feb-11

maj-11

aug-11

nov-11

feb-12

maj-12

aug-12

nov-12

10-03-31

10-04-23

10-04-30

=

Sugar(CBOT, /lb)=

15,00

15,25

15,50

15,7516,00

16,25

16,50

16,75

17,00

17,25

jul-10

okt-10

jan-11

apr-11

jul-11

okt-11

jan-12

apr-12

jul-12

okt-12

jan-13

10-03-31

10-04-23

10-04-30

===

`~=W=_I=pb_=`=o~I=rpa^=

NU


20/22


=

COMMODITY RELATED ECONOMIC INDICATORS==

EUROZONE Current Date Previous Date Next

Industrial production (%, YoY) 4,0 2010-02-28 1,5 2010-01-31 2010-05-12

Industrial production (%, MoM) 0,7 2010-02-28 1,7 2010-01-31 2010-05-12

Capacity utilization (%, sa) 75,5 2010-06-30 72,3 2010-03-31

Manufacturing PMI 57,6 2010-04-30 56,6 2010-03-31 2010-05-03Real GDP (%, YoY) -2,2 2009-12-31 -4,1 2009-09-30 2010-05-12

Real GDP (%, QoQ, sa) 0,0 2009-12-31 0,4 2009-09-30 2010-05-12

CPI (%, YoY) 1,4 2010-03-31 0,9 2010-02-28 2010-05-18

CPI (%, MoM) 0,9 2010-03-31 0,3 2010-02-28 2010-05-18

Consumer confidence -15,0 2010-04-30 -17,3 2010-03-31 2010-05-20

USA

Industrial production (%, YoY) 4,0 2010-03-31 2,2 2010-02-28

Industrial production (%, MoM) 0,1 2010-03-31 0,3 2010-02-28 2010-05-14

Capacity utilization (%) 73,2 2010-03-31 73,0 2010-02-28 2010-05-14

Manufacturing PMI 59,6 2010-03-31 56,5 2010-02-28 2010-05-03

Real GDP (%, YoY) 2,5 2010-03-31 0,1 2009-12-31

Real GDP (%, QoQ, saar) 3,2 2010-03-31 5,6 2009-12-31 2010-05-27

CPI (%, MoM) 2,3 2010-03-31 2,1 2010-02-28 2010-05-19

CPI (%, MoM, sa) 0,1 2010-03-31 0,0 2010-02-28 2010-05-19

OECD Composite Leading Indicator 102,7 2010-02-28 101,8 2010-01-31

Consumer confidence (Michigan) 72,2 2010-04-30 73,6 2010-03-31 2010-05-14

Nonfarm payrolls (net change, sa, 000) 162 2010-03-31 -14 2010-02-28 2010-05-07

JAPAN

Industrial production (%, YoY, nsa) 30,7 2010-03-31 31,3 2010-02-28 2010-05-19

Industrial production (%, MoM, sa) 0,3 2010-03-31 -0,6 2010-02-28 2010-05-19

Capacity utilization (%, sa) 90,1 2010-02-28 90,1 2010-01-31

Manufacturing PMI 53,5 2010-04-30 52,4 2010-03-31

Real GDP (%, YoY, nsa) -1,0 2009-12-31 -5,2 2009-09-30

Real GDP (%, QoQ, sa) 0,9 2009-12-31 -0,1 2009-09-30 2010-05-20

CPI (%, YoY) -1,5 2010-04-30 -1,7 2010-03-31 2010-05-28

CPI (%, MoM) 0,3 2010-03-31 -0,1 2010-02-28


Consumer confidence 41,0 2010-03-31 40,0 2010-02-28 2010-05-18

CHINA

Industrial production (%, YoY) 18,1 2010-03-31 12,8 2010-02-28 2010-05-11

Manufacturing PMI 55,7 2010-04-30 55,1 2010-03-31 2010-06-01

Real GDP (%, YoY) 11,9 2010-03-31 10,7 2009-12-31 2010-07-15

CPI (%, YoY) 2,4 2010-03-31 2,7 2010-02-28 2010-05-11


Consumer confidence 104,2 2010-02-28 104,7 2010-01-31

Bank lending (%, YoY) 29,3 2010-01-31 31,7 2009-12-31

Fixed asset investment (%, YoY) 25,6 2010-03-31 30,1 2009-12-31

OTHER

OECD Area Comp. Leading Indicator 103,6 2010-02-28 102,9 2010-01-31

Global manufacturing PMI 56,7 2010-03-31 55,4 2010-02-28Source: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research=

NV


21/22


=PERFORMANCE==

Monthlyclosing

YTD(%)

1 m(%)

1 q(%)

1 y(%)

5 y(%)

UBS Bloomberg CMCI Index (TR) 1137,45 -3,3 2,3 6,2 29,3 63,3

UBS Bloomberg CMCI Index (ER) 1071,51 -3,3 2,3 6,2 29,1 42,6UBS Bloomberg CMCI Index (PI) 1320,86 -2,5 2,6 6,9 38,0 87,4UBS B. CMCI Energy Index (PI) 1380,90 1,8 5,9 12,6 51,1 57,7

UBS B. CMCI Industrial Metals Index (PI) 1125,81 0,6 -2,7 12,2 64,8 102,8UBS B. CMCI Precious Metals Index (PI) 1727,32 5,8 6,0 10,1 35,8 170,9UBS B. CMCI Agriculture Index (PI) 1269,33 -13,2 3,2 -5,1 4,4 73,2Baltic Dry Index 3354,00 6,8 11,9 17,8 87,8 -12,9

Crude Oil (NYMEX, WTI, $/b) 86,15 5,7 2,9 18,2 68,5 73,3Crude Oil (ICE, Brent, $/b) 87,44 9,1 5,7 22,4 72,1 71,1Aluminum (LME, $/t) 2231,00 -0,3 -3,0 8,6 52,3 22,4Copper (LME, $/t) 7404,00 -1,0 -4,7 10,0 66,9 121,7

Nickel (LME, $/t) 26253,00 38,7 5,1 42,3 125,8 61,6Zinc (LME, $/t) 2259,25 -11,3 -3,9 8,1 60,8 75,0Steel (LME, Far East, $/t) 532,50 26,8 -10,5 25,0 54,3Steel (LME, Mediterranean, $/t) 508,00 24,7 -11,3 23,6 49,9Gold (COMEX, $/ozt) 1180,70 5,6 6,1 9,0 32,5 170,7

Corn (CBOT, /bu) 366,25 -12,5 6,2 2,7 -7,6 78,9Wheat (CBOT, /bu) 491,75 -11,8 9,2 3,7 -6,2 54,6Soybeans (CBOT, /bu) 989,50 -5,7 5,2 8,3 -7,5 59,8

Source: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research

=

MAJOR UPCOMMING COMMODITY EVENTS==

Date Source

Department of Energy, US inventory data Wednesdays, 16:30 CET www.eia.doe.gov

American Petroleum Institute, US inventory data Tuesdays, 22:30 CET www.api.org

CFTC, Commitment of Traders Fridays, 21:30 CET www.cftc.gov

US Department of Agriculture, Crop Progress Mondays, 22.00 CET www.usda.gov

International Energy Agency, Oil Market Report May 12 www.oilmarketreport.com

OPEC, Oil Market ReportMay 11 www.opec.org

Department of Energy, Short Term Energy Outlook May 11 www.eia.doe.gov

US Department of Agriculture, WASDE/WAP May 11 www.usda.gov

International Grains Council, Grain Market Report May 20 www.igc.org.uk

OPEC ordinary meeting, Vienna, Austria October 14 www.opec.org

Source: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research

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CONTACT LIST==

COMMODITIES Position E-mail Phone Mobile

Mikael Nordstrm Global Head [email protected] +46 8 506 230 26 +46 70 293 00 12

RESEARCH

Bjarne Schieldrop Chief Analyst [email protected] +47 22 82 72 53 +47 92 48 92 30

Filip Petersson Strategist [email protected] +46 8 506 230 47 +46 70 996 08 84

SALESArne Boberg Head of Sales [email protected] +46 8 506 230 50 +46 70 699 99 67

Charlotte Aleblad Sales [email protected] +46 8 506 233 91 +46 76 037 91 10

Magnus Wallenbert Sales [email protected] +46 8 506 230 24 +46 76 213 33 40

Katarina Johnsson Sales [email protected] +46 8 506 233 95 +46 73 501 52 02

TRADING

Stefan Fastesson Head of Trading [email protected] +46 8 506 230 13 +46 73 850 13 30

Mats Forsell Trader [email protected] +46 8 506 230 14 +46 70 496 20 82

Mats Hedberg Trader [email protected] +46 8 506 230 15 +46 70 462 29 78

Karin Almgren Broker [email protected] +46 8 506 230 51 +46 73 642 31 76

Christian Ekstrand Quantitative Analyst [email protected] +46 8 506 230 40 +46 70 763 91 95=

TECH. ANALYSIS Position E-mail Phone Mobile

Anders Sderberg Chief Tech. Analyst [email protected] +46 8 506 230 21 +46 70 772 302 1

Dag Mller Tech. Analyst [email protected] +46 8 506 231 29 +46 70 772 312 9

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Documents

SEB Commodities Monthly May 2010