Screen 1 of 26 Availability Assessment and Analysis Assessing Availability LEARNING OBJECTIVES Understand standard calculations of national availability

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Availability Assessment and Analysis

Assessing Availability

LEARNING OBJECTIVES

Understand standard calculations of national availability.

Be aware of existing methods for estimating crop production.

Identify methods for calculating household level food stocks.

Be aware of key aspects to consider in planning availability assessments.

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INTRODUCTION

It is the amount of food that is physically present in a country or area through all forms of domestic production, stocks, commercial imports and food aid.

What is food availability?

There are various methods and tools to assess food availability...

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FOOD BALANCE SHEET

It describes all the factors which constitute the total availability of food in a country over a selected twelve month period.

The Food Balance Sheet is a key tool used to look at food availability at a national level.

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FOOD BALANCE SHEET

The Food Balance Sheet incorporates estimates of “losses” into the supply estimate to get availability of food for human consumption.

Not all the available food in a country is available for human

consumption.

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FOOD BALANCE SHEET

The food available for human consumption is compared to the food needed for that consumption (consumption requirements) over the selected period.

FOOD NEEDED

FOOD NEEDED

FOOD AVAILABLE

FOOD AVAILABLE

The Food Gap is the difference between the estimated food available for human consumption and the consumption requirements.

The estimate of a gap is an average across the population.

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FOOD BALANCE SHEET

Most Food Balance Sheets (FBS) are estimated for a 12 month time.

The FBS usually looks into the future and can be updated as further information is available.

FBS sections:

Supply

• Production

• Changes in stocks

Uses

• Human consumption needs

• Losses and seeds

• Animal feeds and processing

Expected Imports

• Expected Commercial

• Food aid received/pledged

Uncovered Food Gap

FOOD BALANCE SHEET

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FOOD BALANCE SHEET

Very few places have the all data needed to estimate a comprehensive FBS including all food commodities, so you may need to focus on just the key staple foods in the country.

On the other hand, accounting for as many staples as possible is important, because just looking at one commodity alone will give a false view of food gaps.

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FOOD BALANCE SHEET

A country may produce all of a given commodity that it needs; in that case, it is said to be “self-reliant”.

However, with external trade as a possibility, there are many other sources of supply.

A policy of self-reliance can be costly for a country if it means producing at any cost to meet the needs.

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A Food Balance Sheet (FBS) can be very useful, but it also has some limitations:

FBS CAN HELP FBS CANNOT HELP

- Governments in understanding the food situation.

- Governments which may use its results to set international trade policies.

- Food aid agencies in assessing the feasibility of local purchases of supplies for distribution within the country or elsewhere in the region.

- The interpretation of overall price movements.

If prices change, the FBS cannot incorporate:

• all the actions that consumers take.

• the changes in import/export.

Since the FBS is usually based on a 12 month period, it cannot take account of:

• seasonality; and

• local differences.

HOW THE FOOD BALANCE SHEET IS USED

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CROP PRODUCTION ESTIMATION PROCEDURES

TOTAL PRODUCTION = AVERAGE YIELD * TOTAL PLANTED AREA

Estimating crop and livestock production may contribute to understanding food availability.This relationship can be used to estimate the

production of a given crop.

Yield is the total amount produced divided by the land area, a measure of land productivity.

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There are different methods to estimate yields:

Extension Agents

Crop Cutting

Regression Analysis


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An advanced method consist in mapping with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and Remote Sensing with satellite imagery from METEOSTAT and other satellites.

• NOAA Agencies focused on these technological advances:

• NASA • FAO/GIEWS


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FAO often conduct Crop and Food Supply Assessment Missions (CFSAM), for which the main responsibility is to derive estimates of production for use in the Food Balance Sheet.

Steps of carrying out a CFSAM:

Identify information and methods already available in the country.

Determine the key agricultural zones within the country.

Assess production in each zone.


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HOUSEHOLD STOCKS ESTIMATION

Availability can also be assessed at household level, estimating what each household has in stock of the main foods.

The assessment can be done at sub-country level.

Since seasonal shifts can be very important, baseline information of a “normal year” is necessary for interpreting current levels of stocks.

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HOUSEHOLD STOCKS ESTIMATION

The methods for assessing household stocks are:

Household surveysProduction minus estimated consumption can be used to estimate projected stocks.

Rapid appraisals

Teams are sent out to talk with community leaders, groups of farmers and local experts.

The combination of the two methods may provide the best information.

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AVAILABILITY AND MARKETS

The existence of food doesn’t imply a good distribution of food through space and time.

Most often the supplies needed are obtained through the market or through relatives who buy supplies elsewhere.

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KEY ASPECTS IN PLANNING AN AVAILABILITY ASSESSMENT

Useful considerations when planning an availability assessment:

RESOURCES AVAILABLE

SKILLS NEEDED

TIME

ACCURACY

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TIME In situation of emergency, people may need food as soon as possible. With a lengthy survey people will have to wait before the decision is made to send in food aid.

Using previous estimates and information will assist you in narrowing down the considerations in an assessment.In developing an information system a longer term

perspective may be critical to your ability to respond quickly.

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ACCURACY • Determining the level of precision is a balancing act.

• A key feature is honesty in reporting.

• A first step is thoroughly documenting your assumptions and the basis for your estimates.

• Often analysts use previous estimates as a basis for projecting values for the coming year.

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SKILLS NEEDED

• Selecting appropriate methods also includes assessing the skills of your statistical unit or agency.

• The various methods using data collection and estimations require many skills.

You need people who can get the information and interpret what they obtain.

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RESOURCES AVAILABLE

• time;• transport for the staff to get to the field;• financial resources to pay travel and other cash expenses;• computers and staff to conduct analysis;• computer software for the analysis.

It is important to assess your resources, such as:

Identify regional resources that may be available and can complement local resources.

Use the Web.

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• Food availability is the amount of food that is physically present in a country or area through all forms of domestic production, stocks, commercial imports and food aid.

• The Food Balance Sheet describes all the factors which constitute the total availability of food in a country and allows us to differentiate between the estimated and the available food (Food Gap).

• Estimating crop and livestock production may contribute to understanding food availability. This usually implies calculating average yields.

• There are different methods to estimate yields.

• Household level availability is important especially for agricultural households and can be assessed through periodic large household surveys and rapid appraisals.

• In planning an availability assessment, you should consider some key aspects related to time, level of accuracy, skills needed and resources available.

SUMMARY

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IF YOU WANT TO KNOW MORE...

Online Resources:

FAO (2002). Food Balance Sheets: History, sources, concepts, and definitions. Paper #5 for the Project on Intensified Monitoring of Food Security in CIS Low Income Food-Deficit Countries. Rome, Food and Agriculture Organization.(http://www.foodsec.org/DL/course/shortcourseFA/en/pdf/5_FBS_concepts.pdf)

FAO (2002). Food Balance Sheets and Food Consumption Surveys: A Comparison of Methodologies and Results. Paper #7 for the Project on Intensified Monitoring of Food Security in CIS Low Income Food-Deficit Countries. Rome: FAO Agricultural and Development Economics Division (ESA).(http://www.foodsec.org/DL/course/shortcourseFA/en/pdf/7_FBS_FCS.pdf)

FAO (2002). Food Balance Sheets: Applications and Uses. Paper #6 for the Project on Intensified Monitoring of Food Security in CIS Low Income Food-Deficit Countries. Rome: FAO Agricultural and Development Economics Division (ESA).(http://www.foodsec.org/DL/course/shortcourseFA/en/pdf/6_FBS_uses.pdf)

Gross, R., H. Schoeneberger, H. Pfeifer, H-J. A. Preuss (2000). The Four Dimensions of Food and Nutrition Security: Definitions and Concepts. Project on Intensified Monitoring of Food Security in CIS Low Income Food-Deficit Countries. Rome: FAO Agricultural and Development Economics Division (ESA).(http://www.foodsec.org/DL/course/shortcourseFA/en/pdf/P-01_RG_Concept.pdf)

Aube, Thierry (2005). Improving the Methodology for Joint FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Missions: Estimating Commercial Imports. Rome, Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), GIEWS. (http://www.fao.org/giews/english/tools/EstimatingCommercialImports.pdf)

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Donovan, Cynthia, Megan McGlinchy, John Staatz and David Tschirley (2005). Emergency Needs Assessments and the Impact of Food Aid on Local Markets. Desk Review prepared for WFP/SENAC. Rome, World Food Programme, Emergency Needs Assessment Branch (ODAN). (http://documents.wfp.org/stellent/groups/public/documents/ena/wfp086537.pdf )

FAO Statistics Division. Website on Supply Utilization Accounts and Food Balance Sheets in the Context of a National Statistical System. (http://www.fao.org/es/ess/suafbs.asp)

FAO (2000). Handbook for defining and setting up of a food security information and famine early warning system (FSIEWS). (ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/003/X8622e/X8622e00.pdf)

Global Information and Early Warning System on Food and Agriculture (GIEWS) (1996). Guidelines for Crop and Food Supply Assessment Missions. Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), GIEWS. (http://www.fao.org/giews/english/tools/CFSAME1996.pdf)

Global Information and Early Warning System on Food and Agriculture (GIEWS) (2006). Crop Prospects and Food Situation in Southern Africa, April 2006. Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), GIEWS. (http://www.fao.org/Giews/english/shortnews/SouthernAfrica24April06.pdf)

Global Information and Early Warning System on Food and Agriculture (GIEWS) (2004). Overview of Methodology on CFSAMs (PowerPoint presentation). Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), GIEWS (http://www.fao.org/giews/english/tools.htm)

WFP. 2005. Market Assessment: Pakistan Earthquake Affected Areas. December. Rome: World Food Programme. (http://documents.wfp.org/stellent/groups/public/documents/ena/wfp084203.pdf)

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WFP. 2005. Guatemala: Market Profile for Emergency Food Security Needs Assessments. Rome: WFP, ODAN Emergency Needs Assessments Branch. (http://documents.wfp.org/stellent/groups/public/documents/ena/wfp086536.pdf)

Fewsnet

FEWSNET, MACO, and ZNFU (2004). Review of the Zambia National Food Balance Sheet. Lusaka, FEWSNET, Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives (MACO), Zambian National Farmers Union (ZNFU), Food Reserve Agency (FRA). (http://www.fews.net/resources/gcontent/pdf/1000429.pdf)

FEWSNET, et al. 2005-2006. Cross Border Study Reports for Southern Africa and for Zambia. (http://www.fews.net)

FEWSNET. 2005. Informal Cross Border Food Trade in Southern Africa. Issue 1. (http://www.fews.net/resources/gcontent/pdf/1000532.pdf)

Terpend, Noëlle (2006). An Assessment of Knowledge about Trade and Markets Related to Food Security in West Africa. Joint FEWS NET and WFP study. Rome: World Food Programme (WFP), Emergency Needs Assessment Branch (ODAN). (http://www.fews.net/resources/gcontent/pdf/1001068.pdf)

Other

Jacobs, Krista, and Daniel A. Sumner. (2002) The Food Balance Sheets of the Food and Agriculture Organization: A Review of Potential Ways to Broaden the Appropriate Uses of the Data. A Review Sponsored by FAO. Davis, California: University of California, Davis. (http://www.agecon.ucdavis.edu/uploads/grad_papers/fbs_review.pdf )

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SADC Food Security Early Warning System (2006). SADC Food Security Update – No. 3.06 (May). Gaborone: SADC Released: Gaborone, Food Security Early Warning System. (http://www.reliefweb.int/library/documents/2006/sadc-southernafrica-15jun.pdf)

Tschirley, David (2006), Local and Regional Food Aid Procurement: An Assessment of Experience in Africa and Elements of Good Donor Practice. by David Tschirley. 2007. MSU IDPW 91, East Lansing, Michigan. (http://aec.msu.edu/fs2/papers/idwp91.pdf)

Vulnerability Assessment Committee. 2005/6. Vulnerability Assessment Committee Reports from Southern Africa. (http://www.sahims.net)

Additional Reading:

WFP and FEWS NET. 2006. Evaluation of the WFP/FEWS NET Informal Cross-Border Trade Monitoring System. Draft Final Report. June. Report for WFP through Acacia Consulting. Lusaka, Zambia: World Food Programme (WFP) and Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET).

Malawi Vulnerability Assessment Committee (2005). Provisional Results of the Harvest Outcome Analysis. Lilongwe, Malawi: Malawi Vulnerability Assessment Committee (VAC), in collaboration with FEWS NET, Save the Children, SADC FANR Vulnerability Assessment Committee and the World Food Programme.

Maxwell, D and Watkins, B. (2003), Humanitarian information systems and emergencies in the Greater Horn of Africa: logical components and logical linkages. Disasters March 2003, 27(1):72-90.

Documents

Screen 1 of 26 Availability Assessment and Analysis Assessing Availability LEARNING OBJECTIVES Understand standard calculations of national availability