Apr 22, 20231

Science and Technology Infusion PlanScience and Technology Infusion Plan

forforTropical CyclonesTropical Cyclones

Daniel MeléndezDaniel Meléndez

NWS S&T CommitteeNWS S&T CommitteeSeptember 17, 2002September 17, 2002

Apr 22, 20232

OutlineOutline

• Team CompositionTeam Composition

• Vision / BenefitsVision / Benefits

• Goals / TargetsGoals / Targets

• Key Information Gaps Key Information Gaps

• Key SolutionsKey Solutions

• Outstanding R & D NeedsOutstanding R & D Needs

• SummarySummary

Apr 22, 20233

Tropical CyclonesTropical CyclonesTeam CompositionTeam Composition

• Daniel Meléndez (NWS/OST)Daniel Meléndez (NWS/OST)

• Scott Kiser (NWS/OS)Scott Kiser (NWS/OS)

• Richard Knabb (TPC)Richard Knabb (TPC)

• Miles Lawrence (TPC)Miles Lawrence (TPC)

• Xiaofan Li (NESDIS)Xiaofan Li (NESDIS)

• Frank Marks (OAR/HRD)Frank Marks (OAR/HRD)

• Morris Bender (GFDL)Morris Bender (GFDL)

• Scott Braun (NASA/GFDL)Scott Braun (NASA/GFDL)

• Gregg Engel (JTWC)Gregg Engel (JTWC)

• Naomi Surgi (NCEP/EMC)Naomi Surgi (NCEP/EMC)

• Robert Tuleya (NCEP)Robert Tuleya (NCEP)

• Frank Wells (WFO/Guam)Frank Wells (WFO/Guam)

• Hugh Willoughby (OAR/HRD)Hugh Willoughby (OAR/HRD)

Apr 22, 20234

Tropical CyclonesTropical CyclonesVision / BenefitsVision / Benefits

2025 Vision• 48-hr Track Forecast Error of 85 nm• 48-hr Intensity Forecast Error 12 kt

• Save Lives / Enhanced Public Safety• Improved Response Capability of Emergency Managers• Mitigate Property Loss• Economic Impact Increasingly Complex (coastal development….)

Apr 22, 20235

Tropical CyclonesTropical CyclonesGoals/Targets to FY 12Goals/Targets to FY 12

Existing GPRA Existing GPRA Performance MeasurePerformance Measure

FY01 SkillFY01 Skill FY07 GoalFY07 Goal FY12 Target FY12 Target

48-hr Track Error (nm)48-hr Track Error (nm) 125125 128128 9090

Other Performance Other Performance MeasureMeasure

FY01 SkillFY01 Skill FY07 FY07 TargetTarget

FY12 TargetFY12 Target

48-hr Intensity Error (kt)48-hr Intensity Error (kt) 15.915.9 15.415.4 13.913.9

On Track

Low Risk

High Risk

Apr 22, 20236

Hydrologic ServicesHydrologic Services Goals/Targets to FY 12Goals/Targets to FY 12

Existing GPRA (G) or Strategic Existing GPRA (G) or Strategic Plan (S) Performance MeasurePlan (S) Performance Measure

CurrenCurrent Skillt Skill

FY07 FY07 Goal TargetGoal Target

FY12 FY12 Target Target

48-hr Track Error (nm) (G)48-hr Track Error (nm) (G) 125125 128128 120120 9090

48-hr Intensity Error (kt) (S)48-hr Intensity Error (kt) (S) 15.915.9 15.415.4 15.415.4 13.913.9

On Track Low Risk High Risk

Apr 22, 20237

Tropical CyclonesTropical CyclonesKey Information Gaps (not ranked)Key Information Gaps (not ranked)

• Improved Forecasting of Improved Forecasting of Rapidly Changing StormsRapidly Changing Storms

• More Accurate Cyclone More Accurate Cyclone

Track and Intensity ForecastTrack and Intensity Forecast

• Understanding of Model Understanding of Model Guidance UncertaintyGuidance Uncertainty

• More Precise Position of More Precise Position of Circulation CenterCirculation Center

• Higher Resolution Storm Higher Resolution Storm Wind DataWind Data

Apr 22, 20238

GapGap SolutionsSolutions ImpactImpact

More Accurate Cyclone More Accurate Cyclone Track and Intensity Track and Intensity ForecastForecast

• Targeted/Adaptive ObservationsTargeted/Adaptive Observations• NOAA Aircraft Instrumentation NOAA Aircraft Instrumentation

UpgradeUpgrade• Advanced DA of Remote and In-Advanced DA of Remote and In-

Situ Atmosphere and Ocean Situ Atmosphere and Ocean Observations Observations

• Aircraft and WSR-88D Doppler Aircraft and WSR-88D Doppler radar windsradar winds

• EnsemblesEnsembles• Hurricane WRF Hurricane WRF • JHT ResultsJHT Results

• About 12% Increase in About 12% Increase in Numerical Model Numerical Model Intensity Forecast SkillIntensity Forecast Skill

• About 25% in Increase About 25% in Increase in Numerical Model in Numerical Model Track Forecast Skill Track Forecast Skill

Understanding of Understanding of Model Guidance Model Guidance UncertaintyUncertainty

•EnsemblesEnsembles•Statistical GuidanceStatistical Guidance•JHT ResultsJHT Results•TrainingTraining

• Reduced Overwarning Reduced Overwarning of Coastal Hazardsof Coastal Hazards

Tropical CyclonesTropical Cyclones Key S&T SolutionsKey S&T Solutions

Apr 22, 20239

GapGap SolutionSolution ImpactImpactImproved Forecasting Improved Forecasting of Rapidly Changing of Rapidly Changing StormsStorms

• JHT ResultsJHT Results

• Ocean ObservationsOcean Observations

• Hurricane WRF (Improved Hurricane WRF (Improved Physics…)Physics…)

• GPS DropsondeGPS Dropsonde

• SFMRSFMR

• Saved Lives/Enhanced Saved Lives/Enhanced Public SafetyPublic Safety

• Improved Track and Improved Track and Intensity ForecastsIntensity Forecasts

• Improve Other Measures Improve Other Measures (Marine, QPF, Aviation)(Marine, QPF, Aviation)

Higher Resolution Higher Resolution Storm Wind DataStorm Wind Data

• Aircraft radar windsAircraft radar winds

• Aircraft Instrumentation Aircraft Instrumentation Upgrades (Upgrades (e.g., SATCOMM…e.g., SATCOMM…))

• WSR-88D radar winds (done)WSR-88D radar winds (done)

• Improved Intensity and Improved Intensity and Track ForecastsTrack Forecasts

• Improved Storm PhysicsImproved Storm Physics

• Improved Storm-Surge Improved Storm-Surge ForecastForecast

• Improved QPFImproved QPFMore Precise Position More Precise Position of Circulation Centerof Circulation Center

•Satellite/Aircraft Remote Satellite/Aircraft Remote SensingSensing

• Reduced Track ErrorReduced Track Error

Tropical CyclonesTropical Cyclones Key S&T SolutionsKey S&T Solutions

Apr 22, 202310

Tropical Cyclones Tropical Cyclones Key S&T SolutionsKey S&T Solutions

Current Programmatic PhaseCurrent Programmatic Phase

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 1202

Adaptive Obs

*Hurricane WRF

Deployment

OTE

DTE

R&D

Observations

DA/Models

*Advanced DA of Satellite Data*Advanced DA of Satellite Data

*Aircraft Upgrades (SFMR, GPS dropsondes…) Targeted Obs*

*Oceanic DA*Oceanic DA

Enabling Process

*JHT Tech Transfer*JHT Tech Transfer

HWRF 7km

Core Init*GFS Ensembles

*Advanced Data Assimilation Techniques*Advanced Data Assimilation Techniques

*Airborne Upgrade Radar Wind DA*Airborne Upgrade Radar Wind DA

Apr 22, 202311

Tropical CyclonesTropical CyclonesOutstanding R&D NeedsOutstanding R&D Needs

• Rapid Intensity Changing StormsRapid Intensity Changing Storms

• Shear Effects on Track and IntensityShear Effects on Track and Intensity

• Statistical “Guidance-on-Guidance” on Model OutputStatistical “Guidance-on-Guidance” on Model Output

• Improved Data AssimilationImproved Data Assimilation

• Improved Model Physics (microphysics, air-sea fluxes…)Improved Model Physics (microphysics, air-sea fluxes…)

• Model Physics SensitivitiesModel Physics Sensitivities

• Ensemble TechniquesEnsemble Techniques

• Adaptive Observations/TargetingAdaptive Observations/Targeting

• Predictability LimitsPredictability Limits

Apr 22, 202312

Tropical CyclonesTropical Cyclones SummarySummary

R&D NeedsR&D Needs

• Rapid Intensity Changing StormsRapid Intensity Changing Storms• Shear Effects on Track & IntensityShear Effects on Track & Intensity• Statistical “Guidance-on-GuidanceStatistical “Guidance-on-Guidance• Improved Data AssimilationImproved Data Assimilation• Improved Model PhysicsImproved Model Physics• Model Physics SensitivitiesModel Physics Sensitivities• Ensemble TechniquesEnsemble Techniques• Adaptive ObservationsAdaptive Observations• Predictability LimitsPredictability Limits

• Aircraft Instrumentation Upgrades

• Expand Targeted Observations

• Implement Hurricane WRF

• Data Assimilation

• Deploy Advanced Ensemble Techniques

• Expand Adaptive Strategies

• New Satellite Remote Sensing

Inc r

e asi

n g

Perf

orm

ance

Joint Hurricane Testbed

2007 2012 20202002

Vision

• 48-hr Track Forecast Error of 85 nm

• 48-hr Intensity Forecast Error 12 kt

Apr 22, 202313

Tropical CyclonesTropical CyclonesSummarySummary

• Improved track and intensity performances Improved track and intensity performances depend mostly on advances in numerical depend mostly on advances in numerical prediction/data assimilationprediction/data assimilation

• Intensity error performance is virtually “flat” – Intensity error performance is virtually “flat” – awaits significantly improved storm core awaits significantly improved storm core specification and numerical forecasting R & Dspecification and numerical forecasting R & D

Apr 22, 202314

BACKGROUND SLIDESBACKGROUND SLIDES

Tropical CyclonesTropical Cyclones

Apr 22, 202315

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Tropical Prediction Center Performance Measuresyearly-average official 48 hour track forecast error, Atlantic basin

Apr 22, 202316

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)Tropical Prediction Center Performance Measure

yearly-average official 48-hour intensity forecast error, Atlantic basin

Apr 22, 202317

• PublicPublic

• MediaMedia

• Federal, State, Local GovernmentFederal, State, Local Government

• DODDOD

• 53 WRS53 WRS

• State EMA’sState EMA’s

• WMO RA-IVWMO RA-IV

• MarinersMariners

• Private SectorPrivate Sector

Tropical CyclonesTropical CyclonesPrimary Customers/PartnersPrimary Customers/Partners

Apr 22, 202318

Tropical CyclonesTropical CyclonesKey Products/ServicesKey Products/Services

Apr 22, 202319

Tropical CyclonesTropical CyclonesS & T RoadmapS & T Roadmap

• (Insert Spreadsheet)(Insert Spreadsheet)

09-Sep-02

Parameter Accuracy Code: (#) if known, (Range) if can be estimated, (U) Unknown, (NP) Parameter not produced or applicable

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2012

Technology COFS/POM Coupled ocean-atm

Geographical Domain East Coast

East coast/gulf

mexicoGlobal, regional

new regions (Alaska, Hi)

Horizontal Resolution (km) 20 km 40/ 8 reg 20 km

Veritical Domainsfc to ocean

bottomVertical Levels 19Forecast Range 48 h 5-7 days 2 w eeks > 2 w eeksOutput Frequency 24 h 24 hNumber of Runs per Day 1 (00z) 1(00z) ??

Physics impr sea-ice physics

impr. Numerics

tw o-w ay nest

Assimilation ERS-2, GPS altimeter

coupled assimilation

Data volume per run (Mb) Ratio of current computerCost to Complete ($K)O&M Budget/Year ($K)Data Availability

Assimilated at NCEP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Gateway N/ANational Centers N/A

WFOs N/A

ParametersTemperature

SalinitySfc elevation

CurrentsDerived Products

Eta/AVN fog/visibilityAVN sea ice drift

Eta/AVN ice accretion

Technology GFDL GFDL nest GFDL nest GFDL Nest HWRF HWRF HWRFGeographical Domain Atlantic/Gulf Atlantic/Gulf Atlantic/Gulf Atlantic/Gulf Atlantic/Gulf Atlantic/Gulf Atlantic/GulfHorizontal Resolution (km) 18 1/2, 1/6,1/12˚ 1/2, 1/6,1/12˚ 4 km 4 km 4 km 4 kmVeritical Domain Sfc-1mb Sfc-1mb Sfc-1mb Sfc-1mb Sfc-1 mb Sfc-1 mb Sfc-1mb Vertical Levels 42 50 50 60 70 70 70Forecast Range 72 h 72 h 72 h ?? ?? ?? ??Output Frequency 6 h 6 hr 6 hr ?? ?? ?? ??Number of Runs per Day 4 4 4 ?? ?? ?? ??

Physics 3 nest, cloud microphysics

3 nest, 2 ens. Members

4 ens. Mem (2 low res)

2 ens. Mem. 4 ens. Mem. (2 low res)

4 ens. Memb.

Assimilation Hurricane core init

Data volume per run (Mb) Ratio of current computer 0.2 1 2 12 24 48Cost to Complete ($K)O&M Budget/Year ($K)

Hurricane modeling (also global modeling)

GPS

Threshold Metadata for Numerical Prediction (Ocean)

Projected Implementation

Ocean Modeling

Eta fluxes boundary cond, Satellite altimeter, insitu &

MCSST, avhrr SST gulf w all QuikScat, FDDA

2 nest Baroclinic, Coupled ocean-atm

3-D hydrodynamic