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  • ...........7 1 .9 , ....11 .., Saffir Simpson...12 ..13 ..14 .., ......15 .., . ..17 ...18 .19..20 .21Rule 1-2-3.23 2

    27 ...29 email.32 ...34 email.35 NHC..37 500 mb.40 3

    ..47 1..48 2..50 3..52 4..54 5..56 6..58

    ....61 Modern Marine Weather David Burch .85 . .109

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  • , : . . , .

    1 , . 2 e-mail , . , 3 .

    , David Burch Modern MarineWeather. . .

    , nikosmazarakis@yahoo.gr . www.meteomarine.gr .

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    .

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  • Hurricanes Typhoons. . , , , , . .

    Tropical Depression: 33 Knots, ,70%

    Tropical Storm: 34 - 63 Knots, 100 , 70%

    Hurricane: > 64 Knots

    Major Hurricane Super Typhoons: > 96 Knots

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    , , :

  • ( Q,U,X,Y ) , 21 . . , 7 . , . 5 :

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml

    : Hurricanes, Typhoons, Cyclones willy-willies.

    Saffir - Simpson

    1 64-83 Knots

    2 84-95 Knots

    3 96-113 Knots

    4 114-134 Knots

    5 >135 Knots

    , 5 ( Saffir-Simpson), :

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  • 26,5 (Easterly Waves Tropical Waves) .

    :

    1. 26.5 50 .

    2. .

    3. 500 km.

    4.

    5.

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  • 1. .

    2. , ..

    3. .. :

    Max Wind = 16 kts x dP

    dP ..

    4. .. 10 . .. . , ( Fujiwara).

    .

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  • :

    1. .

    2.

    3.

    , (rainbands).

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    .

    .

  • , .

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  • . 10 20 nmi, 4nmi 45 nmi.

    Wilma (: 19/10/2005, : 24/10/2005)

    . 5 30 nmi.

    Katrina (2005)

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  • . 250 nmi km . , . Floyd 300 nmi, Andrew 80 nmi.

    Floyd Andrew.

    T , .. (2005) 3 650 km. Charley (2004) 4 240 km, Andrew .

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  • .. . .. .. .

    .

    .. 5 25 .. 6 10 . 3 , Coriolis .

    .. 30 30 . 10 30 , 30 60 . 50% .. .

    , , 2 8 KT.

    .. ( ) .. ( )

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  • .. 55 , .

    .. . .. .

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    . , (dangerous) (navigable). :

    , , .

    , . .

    , , .

    , ( , . )

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    1 , , , .

    , . , , .

    Rule 1-2-3, , 34 .

  • , 34 KT (8 BF). 34 . .

    Rule 1-2-3 1 70, (US Navy) A Time for All measures. 90 Danger Zone 24 , 34 .

    1 24 100 nmi, 2 24 (48h forecast) 200nmi 3 24 (72h forecast) 300 nmi.

    R u l e 1 - 2 - 3

    1970

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  • , , . NOAA, Lee Chesneau, 34 :

    24h forecast 60 nmi

    48h forecast 120 nmi

    72h forecast 180 nmi

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    Rule 1-2-3

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    2

  • .

    , , , , Tembin.

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  • :

    T 1214 TEMBIN (1214) T Typhoon. TS Tropical Storm STS Severe Tropical Storm 1, Saffir Simpson (. ). 1214 Tembin .

    965 hPa . 1 hPa = 1 mb.

    22.4N 124.5E PSN GOOD (Valid Time). PSN GOOD (PSN = Position) , , , .

    NW SLOWLY: , .

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    MAX WIND 70 KT NEAR CENTERGUST 100 KT near center , , , 70 . Gust .

    EXPECTED MAX WINDS 75 KT NEAR CENTERFOR NEXT 24 HOURSEXPECTED GUST 105 KT 24 ( ), . , 24 , 70 75 .

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    OVER 50 KT WITHIN 45 NM 50 .

    OVER 30 KT WITHIN 150 NM NE-SEMICIRCLE120 NM ELSEWHERE

    , 30 . , :

    S

    SW

    E

    SE

    W

    W E

    , 8 bf 150 NM . 120 .

  • email facsimile , , email , , , . www.meteomarine.gr.

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    , 12 24 . Valid Time 22AUG, 00z( ). 1 12 . . 221200Z . 230000, 24.

  • URLAnalysis 00z http://www.jma.go.jp/jp/g3/images/asia/YYMMDD09.png

    Analysis 06z http://www.jma.go.jp/jp/g3/images/asia/YYMMDD15.png

    Analysis 12z http://www.jma.go.jp/jp/g3/images/asia/YYMMDD21.png

    Analysis 18z http://www.jma.go.jp/jp/g3/images/asia/YYMMDD03.pngForecast 24h, 00z http://www.jma.go.jp/jp/g3/images/24h/YYMMDD09.png

    Forecast 24h, 12z http://www.jma.go.jp/jp/g3/images/24h/YYMMDD21.pngForecast 48h, 00z http://www.jma.go.jp/jp/g3/images/48h/YYMMDD09.pngForecast 48h, 12z http://www.jma.go.jp/jp/g3/images/48h/YYMMDD21.png

    Analysis 500mb, 00z http://www.jma.go.jp/jmh/wmapimgs/sml_00_auas50.pngAnalysis 500mb, 12z http://www.jma.go.jp/jmh/wmapimgs/sml_12_auas50.png

    YY (.. 12), MM (.. 09) DD (.. 22) email 00z 22 2013 url:

    http://www.jma.go.jp/jp/g3/images/asia/13092209.png

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    email . url email www4mail@wm.ictp.trieste.it ( server emails: www4mail@collaborium.org, www4mail@ftp.uni-stuttgart.de,www4mail@kabissa.org, www4mail@web.bellanet.org). email .

    e-mail url :

  • . , OPC, NHC HPC .

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    ILEANA 2012.

    ..

    ..

    Issued Time

    Valid Time

  • email . FTP MAILService. www.meteomarine.gr .

    , FTP Mail Service NOAA, .

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    email

    7 0 W 5 5 W

    W e s tE a s tS y n o p t i c

    T i m e s

    P Y E B 8 6 0 0 z

    0 6 z

    1 2 z

    1 8 z

    M o s t c u r r e n t

    P Y E B 8 7

    P Y E B 8 5

    P Y E B 8 8

    P Y E B 1 1

    P Y E A 8 6

    P Y E A 8 7

    P Y E A 8 5

    P Y E A 8 8

    P Y E A 1 1

    (NOAA) ,

  • U.S./Tropical Surface Analysis (W Half) PYEB11.TIF

    Tropical Surface Analysis (E Half) PYEA11.TIF

    24H Tropical Surface Forecast PYEE10.TIF

    48H Tropical Surface Forecast PYEI10.TIF

    72H Tropical Surface Forecast PYEK10.TIF

    Tropical Cyclone Danger Area PWEK11.TIF

    Tropical Surface Analysis QYFA99.TIF

    U.S./Tropical Surface Analysis PYEB11.TIF

    72 HR Tropical Cyclone Danger Area PWFK12.TIF

    East Pacific Surface Analysis PYFA90.TIF

    U.S./Tropical Surface Analysis PYEB11.TIF

    24HR Tropical Surface Forecast PYFE10.TIF

    48HR Tropical Surface Forecast PYFI10.TIF

    72HR Tropical Surface Forecast PYFK10.TIF

    72 HR Tropical Cyclone Danger Area PWFK11.TIF

    Pacific SST Chart 40N-53N, E of 136W PTBA88.TIF

    Pacific SST Chart 23N-42N, E of 150W PTBA89.TIF

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  • NHC 6 advisories discussions Govdelivery link:

    https://public.govdelivery.com/accounts/USNWS/subscriber/new?preferences=true

    Advisories discussion. e-mail (. )

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  • (advisories) , , .

    advisory . 1 , 2 ( repeat) 3 3 ( extended outlook) 4 5 . advisories Katrina 25 2005 0900z.

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    1o

    2o

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    2o ()

    3o

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    1. , , , 1000 km ( 9.3 ..). 500 mb .

    2. trough 500 mb. .

    , 500 mb, :

    , .

    , , 1000 km 9.3 , .

    , trough , .

    5 0 0 m b

    1

    2

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  • :

    1. 1 , . .

    2. 2,3 4 , , . 30 50 % 500 mb.

    3. 1 :

    (i) ridge 500 mb. ridge, , .

    (ii) 5820 5880 .

    (iii) , 5 , .

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  • Ivy Caroline Northern Marianna Islands. 7/9 , 210 km/h.

    ( I V Y )

    ( 500 mb )

    (trough)

    9.3

    M a - L i C h e n L e e C h e s n e a u

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