Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Scenarios of the Demographic Impact of Climate Change in Minnesota
Megan Dayton, Senior DemographerJanuary 22, 2020
Minnesota in 2019
•The total population was estimated to be 5,642,358
•Minnesota's population grew 6.3% between 2010 and 2019, adding about 336,000 residents (net).
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program, Vintage 2019
9.6%
8.9%
6.3%
6.3%
2.1%
1.2%
South
West
Minnesota
United States
Midwest
Northeast
U.S. Population Growth 2010-2019
Population Growth 2010-2018
• Majority of the state’s growth (80%) occurred in the Twin Cities metro
• Hennepin and Ramsey added 153,00 jointly (46% of the state’s growth)
Nature of population projections
Projection – the numerical outcome of a particular set of assumptions regarding the future population• (Births - deaths) + net migrants
• Total population change
• Recent estimates
• Share of national/regional population
• Economic trends, immigration law, climate change, etc.
Different scenario options• Zero and moderate rates of
migration (both currently published)
• Impact of related trends or laws
Natural change is relatively predictable
Sources: Minnesota Department of Health; Census Bureau, Population Estimates
(60,000)
(40,000)
(20,000)
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Births Deaths Natural Change
Migration fuels growth in Minnesota
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program, Vintage 2019
(15,000)
(10,000)
(5,000)
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
International net domestic net net migration
Minnesota’s Projected Population
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau; Minnesota State Demographic Center
Projection Under Current Assumptions
• 5.6 million in 2019 à 6 million by 2029
• Sustained growth to 6.8 million in 2070 requires an additional 20,000 net migrants per year
• Population begins to decline after 2035 in the absence of migration
5.48
6.79
5.49
-
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
Popu
latio
n in
Mill
ions
Year
Estimate Projection Zero-Migration
The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)
SSP1: Sustainability • Optimistic human development with a shift toward sustainability
SSP2: Middle of the Road• Intermediate case between SSP1 and SSP3
SSP3: Regional Rivalry• Less educational investment, lower health, unmitigated emissions, and slow
technological change in the energy sector
SSP4: Inequality • Less educational investment, lower health, unmitigated emissions, and rapid
technological change in the energy sector
SSP5: Fossil-fueled Development• Rapid economic development driven by high investments in human capital
Sources: O’Neill et al. 2013
a
Minnesota’s Population Pathways
7.41 7.19
5.14 6.36
9.63
6.79
0123456789
10
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
Popu
latio
n in
Mill
ions
Year
SSP1 SSP2 SSP3 SSP4 SSP5 Projection Estimate
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau; Hauer, M. doi:10.1038/sdata.2019.5; Minnesota State Demographic Center
Average annual net migration required under each scenario
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau; Hauer, M. doi:10.1038/sdata.2019.5; Minnesota State Demographic Center
-40000
-20000
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
1990-1994
1995-1999
2000-2004
2005-2009
2010-2014
2015-2019
2020-2024
2025-2029
2030-2034
2035-2039
2040-2044
2045-2049
2050-2054
2055-2059
2060-2064
2065-2069
SSP1 SSP2 SSP3 SSP4 SSP5 Projected Actual
Minnesota’s labor force growth is projected to slow furtherover the next 10 years
40,000
54,000
34,000
21,000
7,000 6,000 6,000 9,000
13,000 15,000 15,000
1980-1990
1990-2000
2000-2010
2010-2015
2015-2020
2020-2025
2025-2030
2030-2035
2035-2040
2040-2045
2045-2050
Average Annual Numeric Changein Minnesota’s Labor Force
Source: U.S. Census Bureau (1980—2015); Minnesota State Demographic Center Projections (2015-2045)
Characteristics of recent arrivals to Minnesota
Did not move
Moved within MN
Moved from outside MN
Less than $25,000 42% 53% 60%
$25,000-$49,999 26% 27% 20%
$50,000-$74,999 16% 12% 10%
$75,000-$99,999 7% 4% 4%
$100,000 or more 9% 5% 6%
Compared to everyone else, recent arrivals are:
• More likely to have lower personal income
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2013-2017; IPUMS
Characteristics of recent arrivals to Minnesota
Compared to everyone else, recent arrivals are:
• More likely to have lower personal income
• More likely to be a person of color
Did not move
Moved within MN
Moved from outside MN
White 82% 73% 64%
POC/I 18% 27% 36%
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2013-2017; IPUMS
Characteristics of recent arrivals to Minnesota
Compared to everyone else, recent arrivals are:
• More likely to have lower personal income
• More likely to be a person of color
• More likely to be a renter
Did not move
Moved within MN
Moved from outside MN
Owned the home 75% 28% 20%
Renter 22% 53% 58%
N/A 3% 19% 22%
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2013-2017; IPUMS
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey
Recent Census Data Release
$73,608
$36,849
$50,240
$80,943
$35,148
$- $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000 $90,000
White Black Latin(x) Asian Am. Indian
Median Household Income by Race (2018 dollars) Minnesota, 2010-2018
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
What do all these numbers mean?
• Population projections show us a future scenario given current assumptions. Large-scale disruptive events—like climate change—are sure to alter expectations.
• Expect big, ongoing change in social and government institutions and policies. The new normal is still unfolding before us.
•More cultural, racial, religious, language diversity ahead. Diversity fuels population and economic growth and challenges us to continuously re-align to new circumstances.
• Economic disparities have a strong hold in Minnesota—especially along racial lines. The social, economic, and geographic determinants of health are coming into greater focus everyday.
