SBEP 2333 - Tutorial 2 - Cohort Survival Technique[1]

7/28/2019 SBEP 2333 - Tutorial 2 - Cohort Survival Technique[1]

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Urban Landuse,Infrastructures,Amenities, etc

UrbanPlanning

Population


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Introduction:

Population projections are thefundamental criteria of planning

activities such producing land use,

transportation , housing,

environmental and facilities plan of

future. (Wang.X. & Hofe.R.v., 2007)

Definition of Cohort:

Cohort means group or batch of

something (usually people) that share same

characteristics (age, gender, education level,

economic status etc.).

Different group of people will have different

spefication of requirements for urban expenses

budgeting, housing, educations, infrastructures and

public amenities (which are the main business ofurban planning)


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Example of Cohort Graph and Population Growth

Demographic cohort in Greece Three type of growth pattern

Japan Population Changes over Time Malaysia Working Group Cohort


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Number of Population by Gender and Age Group Malaysia, 2000 and 2010

Source: Statistic Deparment of Malaysia, 2011


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Components ofCohort Survival

Model

ExistingPopulation

Migration

Rate

(In, Out)

MortalityRate

(Death)

FertilityRate

(Birth)

COHORT SURVIVAL/COMPONENT MODEL

A technique used to project future population, and study demography pattern of

a region, based on previous population data, trends and parameters.

Demography origanate from ancient Greek word meaning description of people.

Demographic study focus on population size, location, density, distribution,

movement and characteristics.


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-60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

('000)

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-3435-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

>75

Age Structure 2000

Male

Female

Below is the population cohort of Johor Bahru District on year 2000, based on 5 year

interval and gender.

Based on the 2000 population cohort (called as the base year cohort), project population

of Johor Bahru for the year 2005, by using Cohort Model.

AgeMale Population (MP)

in year base 2000

Female Population (FP)

in base year 2000

0-4 65,153 60,191

5-9 61,739 57,939

10-14 51,381 47,211

15-19 53,394 49,226

20-24 64,621 59,497

25-29 62,532 27,995

30-34 54,754 50,061

35-39 48,068 43,079

40-44 38,440 35,608

45-49 28,197 27972

50-54 20,046 19782

55-59 10631 11548

60-64 10062 10002

65-69 6270 6241

70-74 4179 4118

75 and above 4202 4254

Total 583,669 514,724

Total Population 1,098,393Source: Johor Bahru District Local Plan, 2003


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AgeMale Population (MP)

in year base 2000

Female Population (FP)

in base year 2000

0-4 65,153 60,191

5-9 61,739 57,939

10-14 51,381 47,211

15-19 53,394 49,226

20-24 64,621 59,497

25-29 62,532 27,995

30-34 54,754 50,061

35-39 48,068 43,079

40-44 38,440 35,608

45-49 28,197 27972

50-54 20,046 19782

55-59 10631 11548

60-64 10062 10002

65-69 6270 6241

70-74 4179 4118

75 and above 4202 4254

Total 583,669 514,724

Total Population 1,098,393 Projected Population

Fertility Rate

Male/FemaleSurvival Rate

Migrant

Data/Information Required to Run Cohort Model


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FORMULA TO CALCULATE SURVIVAL RATE

Sx Survival rate of cohortxon year t

Pxt-1Population of cohortxon year t-1 (previous year)

PxtPopulation of cohortxon year t(studied year)

STEP 1 : Acquire Survival Rate

1. Calculate survival rate for each age cohort

for both male and female.

2. Except 0-10 years cohort, the Survival

Rate decrease when age increase.

3. Different region will have different

survival rate. For example survival ratebetween :

i. a poor country such Sudan,

ii. a rich country such Britian,

iii. a developing country such China,

iv. and, a warring country such

Palestine.

4. Survival rate for each age and gender

cohort usually are provided in a region

population census report by statistic

department.

5. For this exercise, the survival rate are

provided as in the following table

AgeMale survival

ratesFemale survival

rates

0-4 0.99479 0.992879

5-9 0.995531 0.996572

10-14 0.995339 0.996803

15-19 0.993107 0.996576

20-24 0.991573 0.994889

25-29 0.990588 0.993757

30-34 0.987926 0.9911535-39 0.982144 0.987182

40-44 0.971451 0.982565

45-49 0.955657 0.97499

50-54 0.930231 0.956477

55-59 0.893816 0.93254

60-64 0.830124 0.888117

65-69 0.758008 0.831622

70-74 0.558637 0.675795

75 and above 0.279319 0.337898


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STEP 2 : Arrange Data in Excel

1. The male, and female population for base

year are arrange along with male and

female survival rate in Excel Table.

2. Column in red are essential data needed

to run cohort model.

STEP 3 : Project Population

and Age Shift Concept

1. By applying the formula below, project the

population of each cohort based on their

survival/mortality rate. For instance:

Where:

S Survival rate of cohortPxt

Population of cohortxon year t

The Age Shift Concept


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STEP 3 : Project Population

and Age Shift Concept

1. By applying the formula below, project the

population of each cohort based on their

survival/mortality rate. For instance:

Where:

S Survival rate of cohort

PxtPopulation of cohortxon year t

In Excel

1. The above formula should be apply by

multiplying the above formula and the age

shift concept.

2. For the projected year, population for the

last cohort is the total projected

population for the last and second last

cohort.


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STEP 5: Male and Female Baby

1. Below are the fertility rate of each cohort considered as fertile period for female in Johor Bahru

District. By using fertility rate of 2000 (based year female population) , we could calculate

population of 0-4 cohort for 2005.

2. By utilizing the ratio of male and female population in base year, we could calculate the number of

children age 0-4 years old during the projected year by gender.

3. Below is the formula to calculate ratio between male and female population:

Where:

PxtPopulation ofxcohort on time tAge

Age specific

fertility rates

or birth rates

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19 0.039752

20-24 0.187693

25-29 0.248447

30-34 0.20773

35-39 0.143431

40-44 0.059273

45-49 0.006755

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75 and above


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Based on the given set of data, survival

rate, and birth rate, in the tutorial,project the population of Johor Bahru

District (JB) until year 2015 by using the

projected population in year 2005 as the

base year, and answer the following

questions:

(10 carry marks)

* Make your answer and report straight forward and ascomprehensive as possible, in Englisih. Submit on the

following week.

QUESTIONS

1. What is the total projected population of JB at year2015 and number of houses needed for JB if a single

family consist of 4.3 peoples?

2. Describe and explain the population cohort

shape/growth of Johor Bahru District on year 2015, is

it the same with 2005?

3. By utilizing the projected population cohort in year

2015, how many primary school should be provided if

each primary school able to accommodate 1000

pupils? If you unable to deter, explain why and

suggest improvement on this cohort model so you

could use it to calculate future demand for school

amenities.

4. State the formula to calculate population growth rate

(refer census report), and calculate the average

annual growth rate of JB for 2005-2010, 2010-2015.


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Book

Wang, X. & Hofe, R.V. ,(2007) Research Methods in Urban and Regional Planning. Springer Berlin Heidelberg,

New York. ISBN 978-3-540-49657-1.

Excel

Maria Langer (1999) Excel 2000 for Windows; Visual Quick Start Guide, Peachpit Press (HF 5548.4 M523 L36

1999 c.1) 15

Palani Murugappan (2002) EXCEL; Functions for the daily serve, Venton publishing (HF 5548.4. M523 P36

2002 c.1)

Website

Japan Population Distribution based on Age. Obtained on 12 March 2012.

http://japanfocus.org/-Glenda_S_-Roberts/3450

Population Changes and Trend. Obtained on 12 March 2012.

http://www.prb.org/Educators/TeachersGuides/HumanPopulation/Change.aspx

Greece Demography. Obtained on 12 March 2012.

http://ecology90.wordpress.com/2010/11/29/social-and-demographical-changes-among-societies/

THANK YOU
http://japanfocus.org/-Glenda_S_-Roberts/3450http://www.prb.org/Educators/TeachersGuides/HumanPopulation/Change.aspxhttp://ecology90.wordpress.com/2010/11/29/social-and-demographical-changes-among-societies/http://ecology90.wordpress.com/2010/11/29/social-and-demographical-changes-among-societies/http://ecology90.wordpress.com/2010/11/29/social-and-demographical-changes-among-societies/http://ecology90.wordpress.com/2010/11/29/social-and-demographical-changes-among-societies/http://ecology90.wordpress.com/2010/11/29/social-and-demographical-changes-among-societies/http://ecology90.wordpress.com/2010/11/29/social-and-demographical-changes-among-societies/http://ecology90.wordpress.com/2010/11/29/social-and-demographical-changes-among-societies/http://ecology90.wordpress.com/2010/11/29/social-and-demographical-changes-among-societies/http://ecology90.wordpress.com/2010/11/29/social-and-demographical-changes-among-societies/http://ecology90.wordpress.com/2010/11/29/social-and-demographical-changes-among-societies/http://ecology90.wordpress.com/2010/11/29/social-and-demographical-changes-among-societies/http://ecology90.wordpress.com/2010/11/29/social-and-demographical-changes-among-societies/http://www.prb.org/Educators/TeachersGuides/HumanPopulation/Change.aspxhttp://japanfocus.org/-Glenda_S_-Roberts/3450http://japanfocus.org/-Glenda_S_-Roberts/3450http://japanfocus.org/-Glenda_S_-Roberts/3450http://japanfocus.org/-Glenda_S_-Roberts/3450http://japanfocus.org/-Glenda_S_-Roberts/3450http://japanfocus.org/-Glenda_S_-Roberts/3450

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SBEP 2333 - Tutorial 2 - Cohort Survival Technique[1]