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SALMON PANELPANEL LEADER Trond Valderhaug
ANALYST Georg Liasjø
Mike Cusack, Troy Enz, Sebastian Goycoolea,
Patrice Flanagan, Egil Ove Sundheim
THE SALMON PANEL
Trond Valderhaug Georg Liasjø
Mike Cusack Troy Enz Sebastian
Goycoolea
Patrice
Flanagan
Egil Ove
Sundheim
2
Overview• Supply
– Better purchasing environment; supplies are stable, increased in 2015
– Increase in Canadian production; Chile volumes will remain consistent in 2016
– Slight increase in world supply 2-3%; strongest growth is in Canadian side
– A biological situation that needs to be controlled; what kind of efforts are underway to
correct?
• Trade
– Trade ban in Russia has moved Norwegian product to US market
• Wild Capture trends
– Narrative: global currency, comparison by species
• Trends/shift in the market
– Different needs for different guests? What does the guest value the most?
– Millennials’ needs/concerns as a consumer
– Expansion of retail market Value added and convenience emerge as important buying
factors
3
Farmed salmon markets
• Total supply grew 3-4% in 2015
• Growth in Norway, Canada and UK, slight decline in Chile
• Russian embargo on Norwegian/EU salmon maintained
• Continued growth in new markets
• Lower prices (Chile vs. Norway)
• Very low supply growth in 2016
• Strengthening dollar
4
~75% of world salmon supply is farmed
Source: Kontali, AquaBench
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015e
KTO
NN
ES
(WFE)
WILD FARMED TOTAL
Estimated Total World Salmon Supply: Farmed & Wild
5
Atlantic Salmon dominates
farmed supply
Source: Kontali, AquaBench
Estimated Total World Salmon Supply: Farmed
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015e
KTO
NN
ES (
WFE)
ATLANTIC SALMON PACIFIC SALMON TROUT
6
Norway and Chile dominate farmed
Atlantic production
Source: Kontali, AquaBench
Share of World Farmed Atlantic Production, 2015e
Norway
53%
Chile
26%
UK
7%
Canada
6%
Faroes
3%
Australia
2%
Other countries
1%
USA
1% Ireland
1%
7
2015, supply: Slight increase in Norway;
Chile down
Source: Kontali, AquaBench
World Supply of Farmed Atlantic Salmon
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015e
KTO
NN
ES (
WFE)
NORWAY CHILE OTHERS TOTAL HARVEST
8
Total farmed Atlantic supply
grew about 3%
Source: Kontali, AquaBench
3%
-1%
10%
3%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Norway Chile Others World total
KTO
NN
ES (
WFE)
2014 2015e Δ y-o-y kT Δ y-o-y %
Farmed Atlantic Salmon By Region (2015e Vs. 2014)
9
Chilean production likely to
continue decrease
Source: Kontali, AquaBench
Total Salmonids Trout Coho
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
MIL
L. S
MO
LT
KTO
NN
ES (
WFE)
FARMED SALMON, CHILE
SMOLT RELEASE
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
MIL
L. S
MO
LT
KTO
NN
ES (
WFE)
TROUT, CHILE
SMOLT RELEASE (AVG. Y AND Y - 1)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
MIL
L. S
MO
LT
KTO
NN
ES (
WFE)
COHO, CHILE
SMOLT RELEASE (AVG. Y AND Y - 1)
10
Chilean production likely to
continue decrease
Source: Kontali, AquaBench
Chilean Atlantic Salmon Production and Smolt Release
(1 Year Prior)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015e 2016e 2017e
MIL
L. S
MO
LT
KTO
NN
ES (
WFE)
ATLANTIC SALMON, CHILE SMOLT RELEASE (Y - 1)
11
12
Global trade flow of farmed
Atlantic salmon
Source: Kontali, Marine Harvest
August (2014) Russian import ban closed
one of Norway’s largest markets;
ban maintained in 2015
13
Changes in Russian sourcing
Source: Kontali
Atlantic Salmon Consumption, Russia (By Origin)
23 22
25
34
2423
33
47
4038
40
54
3734
37
52
3234
3841
18
28
33
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
KTO
NN
ES
(WFE)
FROM NORWAY FROM CHILE OTHER Q AVERAGE, LTM
14
The EU and the US absorbed the
supply growth
Source: Kontali
Atlantic Salmon Consumption By Market
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
EU USA Russia Japan Greater
China
ASEAN Latin
America
Other
markets
KTO
NN
ES (
WFE)
Q1-Q3, 2013 Q1-Q3, 2014 Q1-Q3, 2015
15
Total US Atlantic imports up 12-13%
in 2015
Source: NOAA
US Farmed Atlantic Salmon Imports By Month
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
KTO
NN
ES (
PR
OD
UC
T W
EIG
HT)
2014 2015
16
Fresh fillet
56%Frozen fillet
21%
Fresh,
whole
21%
Other
2%
Chile
53%
Canada
22%
Norway
14%
Faroe Isl.
4%
UK
4%
Other
3%
US Atlantic salmon market 2015
(January–October, WFE)Share By Country, 2014 and 2015Share By Product, 2014 and 2015
2015 2015
2014 2014
17
Source: NOAA
Chile
58%
Canada
14%
Norway
11%
Faroe Isl.
6%
UK
5%
Other
6%
Fresh fillet
55%
Frozen fillet
16%
Fresh,
whole
27%
Other
2%
Growing imports from most markets
Source: NOAA
US Atlantic Salmon Imports, By Country
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Ja
n-1
4
Fe
b-1
4
Ma
r-1
4
Ap
r-1
4
Ma
y-1
4
Ju
n-1
4
Ju
l-14
Au
g-1
4
Se
p-1
4
Oc
t-14
No
v-1
4
De
c-1
4
Ja
n-1
5
Fe
b-1
5
Ma
r-1
5
Ap
r-1
5
Ma
y-1
5
Ju
n-1
5
Ju
l-15
Au
g-1
5
Se
p-1
5
Oc
t-15
KTO
NN
ES (
PR
OD
UC
T W
EIG
HT)
CANADA CHILE FAROE ISLANDS NORWAY UK OTHERS
18
Monthly Imports: Fresh Fillets
Source: NOAA
US Monthly Imports: Atlantic Fresh Fillets
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
KTO
NN
ES (
PR
OD
UC
T W
EIG
HT)2014 2015
19
Chile dominates fresh fillet imports
Source: NOAA
US Monthly Imports: Fresh Farmed Fillets
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Ja
n-1
4
Fe
b-1
4
Ma
r-1
4
Ap
r-1
4
Ma
y-1
4
Ju
n-1
4
Ju
l-14
Au
g-1
4
Se
p-1
4
Oc
t-14
No
v-1
4
De
c-1
4
Ja
n-1
5
Fe
b-1
5
Ma
r-1
5
Ap
r-1
5
Ma
y-1
5
Ju
n-1
5
Ju
l-15
Au
g-1
5
Se
p-1
5
Oc
t-15
KTO
NN
ES (
PR
OD
UC
T W
EIG
HT)
CHILE NORWAY CANADA OTHER FAROE ISLANDS UK
Chile
76%
Norway
12%
Canada
4%
Other
3%
Faroe
Islands
2%
UK
3%
Share, LTM
20
Monthly Imports: Frozen Fillets
Source: NOAA
US Monthly Imports: Atlantic Frozen Fillets
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
KTO
NN
ES (
PR
OD
UC
T W
EIG
HT)2014 2015
21
Chile & Norway dominate
frozen fillet imports
Source: NOAA
US Atlantic Salmon Imports: Frozen Fillets Share, LTM
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
Ja
n-1
4
Fe
b-1
4
Ma
r-1
4
Ap
r-1
4
Ma
y-1
4
Ju
n-1
4
Ju
l-14
Au
g-1
4
Se
p-1
4
Oc
t-14
No
v-1
4
De
c-1
4
Ja
n-1
5
Fe
b-1
5
Ma
r-1
5
Ap
r-1
5
Ma
y-1
5
Ju
n-1
5
Ju
l-15
Au
g-1
5
Se
p-1
5
Oc
t-15
KTO
NN
ES (
PR
OD
UC
T W
EIG
HT)
CHILE NORWAY OTHER FAROE ISLANDS CANADA UK
Chile
68%
Norway
25%
Other
6%
Faroe
Islands
1%
Canada
0%UK
0%
22
Monthly Imports: Fresh Whole
Source: NOAA
US Monthly Imports: Fresh Atlantic Whole
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
KTO
NN
ES (
PR
OD
UC
T W
EIG
HT)2014 2015
23
Canada dominates fresh whole imports
Source: NOAA
US Atlantic Salmon Imports: Fresh Whole Share, LTM
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Ja
n-1
4
Fe
b-1
4
Ma
r-1
4
Ap
r-1
4
Ma
y-1
4
Ju
n-1
4
Ju
l-14
Au
g-1
4
Se
p-1
4
Oc
t-14
No
v-1
4
De
c-1
4
Ja
n-1
5
Fe
b-1
5
Ma
r-1
5
Ap
r-1
5
Ma
y-1
5
Ju
n-1
5
Ju
l-15
Au
g-1
5
Se
p-1
5
Oc
t-15KTO
NN
ES (
PR
OD
UC
T W
EIG
HT)
CANADA FAROE ISLANDS NORWAY UK CHILE OTHERS
Canada
70%
Faroe
Islands
9%
Norway
10%
UK
8%
Chile
2%
Others
1%
24
Atlantic salmon prices fell in 2015
(as in 2014)
Source: NOAA, Urner Barry
Fresh Farmed Atlantic Salmon Prices
25
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
USD
/lb
Norway, whole fish Canada, whole fish Chile, fresh fillets (D-trim, Miami)
Indexes of foreign currency values
Source: FactSet
26
Indexes Of Exchange Rates (As Of December 2015)
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
Ja
n-1
3
Fe
b-1
3
Ma
r-1
3
Ap
r-1
3
Ma
y-1
3
Ju
n-1
3
Ju
l-13
Au
g-1
3
Se
p-1
3
Oc
t-13
No
v-1
3
De
c-1
3
Ja
n-1
4
Fe
b-1
4
Ma
r-1
4
Ap
r-1
4
Ma
y-1
4
Ju
n-1
4
Ju
l-14
Au
g-1
4
Se
p-1
4
Oc
t-14
No
v-1
4
De
c-1
4
Ja
n-1
5
Fe
b-1
5
Ma
r-1
5
Ap
r-1
5
Ma
y-1
5
Ju
n-1
5
Ju
l-15
Au
g-1
5
Se
p-1
5
Oc
t-15
No
v-1
5
De
c-1
5
USDNOK USDJPY USDCAD USDGBP USDCLP USDEUR
26
Projected 2016-2017 Atlantic supply
growth: ~1%
Source: Kontali, ABG Sundal Collier
World Supply Of Farmed Atlantic Salmon
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Y-O
-Y G
RO
WTH
(P
ER
CEN
T)SUPPLY GROWTH
27
Strong correlation between change in
supply and change in price
Source: Marine Harvest, Kontali
‘15 H1 vs. ‘14 H1
Projected 2016-2017 Atlantic supply
Source: Kontali, ABG Sundal Collier
World Supply Of Farmed Atlantic Salmon
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
KTO
NN
ES (
WFE)
NORWAY CHILE OTHERS TOTAL HARVEST
29
American Supply (Chile + Canada)European Supply (Norway + UK + Faroes)
Salmon Price Norway Salmon Price Chile (US Market)
Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Kontali, Sernapesca, AquaBench, FHL, Urner Barry
Price divergence, Chile vs. Norway
(partly driven by supply)
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
Y-O
-Y G
RO
WTH
(P
ER
CEN
T)
KTO
NN
ES (
WFE)
SUPPLY, EUROPE SUPPLY GROWTH, EUROPE
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Y-O
-Y G
RO
WTH
(P
ER
CEN
T)
KTO
NN
ES (
WFE)
SUPPLY, AMERICA SUPPLY GROWTH, AMERICA
30
19 2225
32
25 2631
3731
26
39 40 40
0
10
20
30
40
50
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
Norway (NOK/kg)
2.8 2.53.1
4.03.7 3.8
4.2
5.14.8
3.4
4.6 4.4
3.6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Chile (USD/lb)
Price divergence explained #1:
Variation in supply growth
Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Kontali, Sernapesca, AquaBench, FHL, Urner Barry
Price, Atlantic Salmon – Norway vs. Chile Difference (Chile – Norway)
In Supply Growth And Price
31
-505
10152025303540455055NOK/kg (gwe)
Diff Chile, Miami Hist. avg. Norway
-10-8-6-4-20246810
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Q1'
06
Q3'
06
Q1'
07
Q3'
07
Q1'
08
Q3'
08
Q1'
09
Q3'
09
Q1'
10
Q3'
10
Q1'
11
Q3'
11
Q1'
12
Q3'
12
Q1'
13
Q3'
13
Q1'
14
Q3'
14
Q1'
15
NOK/kg gweGrowth diff.
Diff Chilean supply growth vs. European supply growth
Price divergence explained #2:
FX matters (strong USD)!
Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Kontali, Sernapesca, AquaBench, FHL, Urner Barry, FactSet
USDNOK Vs. Usdeur
32
Price, Atlantic Salmon – Norway vs. Chile
-505
10152025303540455055NOK/kg (gwe)
Diff Chile, Miami Hist. avg. Norway
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
Ja
n-1
3
Ma
r-1
3
Ma
y-1
3
Ju
l-1
3
Se
p-1
3
No
v-1
3
Ja
n-1
4
Ma
r-1
4
Ma
y-1
4
Ju
l-1
4
Se
p-1
4
No
v-1
4
Ja
n-1
5
Ma
r-1
5
Ma
y-1
5
Ju
l-1
5
Se
p-1
5
No
v-1
5
USDNOK USDEUR
Supply driver, Chile:
Negative operating margins
Source: Multiexport, AquaChile, Australis, Blumar, Camanchaca
0.3
-0.4
-1.3-1.1 -1.2
-1.1
-0.2
0.3
0.9
0.6
0.20.0
-0.2
-1.1 -1.1
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
Q1'12 Q2'12 Q3'12 Q4'12 Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15
Reference price (USD/lbs)
USD/kg
Farming EBIT/kg Reference price (rhs)
EBIT/Kg, Listed Chilean Salmon Producers (Atlantic Salmon Only)
33
III. Wild Salmon Markets
• Alaska 2015 – Second largest salmon harvest on record, only exceeded
by 2013 harvest levels
• Sockeye
• Bristol Bay – Second largest run in the last 20 years and 12% above
forecast
• Fraser River – 248,400 fish harvested in the Fraser River, In-season forecast
decreased sustainably from pre-season forecast
• Pinks– “..The number of pink salmon came closer to the 2013
record year…”
– Prince William Sound pink salmon harvest was largest on
record at 98.3 million fish
34
Global Wild Salmon Supply
Source: Kontali, Canada Dept of Fisheries, ADFG
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E
METR
IC T
ON
S
CHUM COHO PINK SOCKEYE CHINOOK
Estimated Catch of Russian Wild Salmon
Source: Kontali
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
500000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E
METR
IC T
ON
S
CHUM COHO PINK SOCKEYE
Alaska Wild Salmon Harvests
Source: ADFG
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
MT
CHINOOK SOCKEYE COHO PINK CHUM
37
Alaska and BC Sockeye Harvest
Sources: Alaska Department of Fish and Game, Canada Department of Fisheries and Oceans
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
MIL
LIO
NS O
F F
ISH
ALASKA CANADA
38
US Sockeye Salmon Imports
From Canada
Source: National Marine Fisheries
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
2012 2013 2014 2015
MT
FRESH FROZEN CANNED
39
Alaska Sockeye Salmon Production
Source: ADF&G, Alaska Department of Tax and Revenue; Annual Alaska Salmon Production Report
-
50,000,000
100,000,000
150,000,000
200,000,000
250,000,000
300,000,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
PO
UN
DS
HARVEST (IN LBS) FROZEN CANNED BASED ON 44.25 POUNDS/48 TALL FRESH
40
Bristol Bay Sockeye Forecast
Source: ADF&G
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
projected
MIL
LIO
NS O
F F
ISH
TOTAL FORECAST TOTAL HARVEST
41
Sockeye Salmon Wholesale Price
Source: Alaska Department of Revenue
$-
$1.00
$2.00
$3.00
$4.00
$5.00
$6.00
$7.00
$8.00
$9.00
PR
ICE P
ER
LB
USD
FROZEN H&G FROZEN FILLETS FRESH H&G CANNED BASED ON 48 TALL CASE
42
Alaskan Sockeye Canned Production
Source: Alaska Department of Tax and Revenue; Annual Alaska Salmon Production Report
-
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
PO
UN
DS
TALLS HALFS QUARTERS OTHER
43
44
Alaska Pink Salmon Total Harvest
Source: ADFG
-
100,000,000
200,000,000
300,000,000
400,000,000
500,000,000
600,000,000
700,000,000
800,000,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
RO
UN
D P
OU
ND
S
HARVEST
Alaska Pink Salmon Production
Source: State of Alaska Dept of Revenue
-
50,000,000
100,000,000
150,000,000
200,000,000
250,000,000
300,000,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
FIN
ISH
ED
PO
UN
DS
FROZEN FRESH CANNED
45
Pink Salmon Wholesale Prices
Source: Alaska Department of Revenue
$-
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
2011-1 2011-11 2011-111 2012-1 2012-11 2012-111 2013-1 2013-11 2013-111 2014-1 2014-11 2014-111 2015-1 2015-11
PR
ICE
FROZEN H&G CANNED TALLS/CAN
46
42% Order healthier
options
25%Choose freshest,
cooked-to-order
menu items
31% Try new
flavors and
styles of food 34%Avoid sugar-
added
beverages
18% Choose locally
sourced,
seasonal items
18%Explore more
global or
ethnic types
of food 18% Order more
plant-based
foods
Consumers want and
expect healthier
choices when they
are eating out today
Making “good food choices”
outside the home has little to do
with nutritional information and
everything to do with increasingly
nuanced and sophisticated
quality cue.
17% Choose
restaurants that
allow meal
customization/
subs
84%have changed
their dining habits
in past few years
Q6. Compared to a few years ago,
which of these things are you
doing MORE often than before?
Consumers are increasingly
looking for ways to bring their
at-home health aspirations
into the food service realm.
Source: Sustainable Food Service (2014); Base: Total Respondents (n=1554)
47
Guests care first about what is in their food, and then how it came to be
GUEST
IMPORTANCE Tier 1: WHAT’S IN IT? Tier 2: HOW WAS IT MADE?
GUESTS WANT
TO KNOW…
…ABOUT WHAT IS IN THE FOOD THEY
ARE BUYING.
• What ingredients are in your products
• From where you source the ingredients
that contribute to quality and flavor of the
food (e.g., terroir)
…HOW THEIR FOOD CAME TO BE.
• How a company's products are
sourced and manufactured to assure
quality and safety standards
• How you treat the animals that are used
in your products
GUESTS ARE
LOOKING
FOR…
• Inherent positives
• Absence of negatives
• Short ingredient list
• Recognizable ingredients
• Growing methods
• Humane treatment of animals
• Issues of scale
• Production techniques
48
Source: The Hartman Group Insights On Health & Wellness And Sustainability
Consumers increasingly demand fresh, real,
less processed options at food service
• ‘Fresh’ continues to be a most valued quality distinction marker,
whereas descriptors such as ‘locally grown’ and ‘seasonal’ are now
almost as salient as calorie and fat information.
• Menu labels that indicate attributes such as ‘fresh,’ ‘real,’ ‘locally
grown’ and the absence of harmful ingredients (i.e., pesticide or
hormone free) are also most personally relevant to consumers as they
are perceived as quality cues.
TOP 10 MOST IMPORTANT MENU LABELS
• Fresh (55%)
• Pesticide free (37%)
• Real (36%)
• Hormone free (31%)
• Natural (31%)
• No artificial flavors/colors/preservatives (31%)
• MSG free (31%)
• Locally grown produce (31%)
• Less processed (30%)
• Humane treatment of animals (30%)
49
Where consumers reside within the World of Sustainabilitydefines the intensity of their engagement with and decisions made around sustainability topics.
The gap between aspirations and behavior narrows as consumers become more engaged and the scope of their sustainability-driven behaviors grows.
Consumer engagement with
sustainability varies THE CORE is the segment most intensely involved
in sustainability
• Promoting sustainability for the benefit of the greater
good is a defining feature of their values, and it
consistently drives decision making
THE MID-LEVEL represents the majority of
consumers and the greatest opportunity
because of both their size and relatively high
level of interest in sustainability
• Inner Mid-Level (34%) consumers adopt Core attitudes
and behaviors, but more typically make decisions
based on benefits to themselves
• Outer Mid-Level (33%) consumers are occasionally
influenced by sustainability in their purchases when it
intersects with personal benefits
THE PERIPHERY is least involved in sustainability
• Periphery consumers rarely consider sustainability
explicitly in their decision making, but it does play a
role in their value system more generally
17%
67%
16%
50
APPENDIX
USA
Singapore
CanadaJapan
Netherlands
Belgium
Germany
France
UK
Italy
Israel
Spain
South Korea
PortugalRussia
ArgentinaBrazil
MexicoChina/HK/Viet.Thailand
Ukraine
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Kg/capita (WFE)
GDP/capita, USDk (current)
Economics matter; so does the economy
Source: ABG Sundal Collier
Farmed Atlantic Salmon Consumption Per Capita vs. GDP Per Capita
53
KG
/CA
PIT
A (
WFE)
GDP/CAPITA, USDK (CURRENT)
The EU and the US absorbed the supply growth
Source: Kontali
Atlantic Salmon Demand By Country Atlantic Salmon Demand, EU and The US
Atlantic Salmon Demand, Russia, Japan And G. China Atlantic Salmon Demand, ASEAN, L. America And Others
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15
KTO
NN
ES (
WFE)
EU USA RUSSIA JAPAN
GREATER CHINA ASEAN LATIN AMERICA OTHER MARKETS
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
KTO
NN
ES (
WFE)
EU USA
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
KTO
NN
ES (
WFE)
RUSSIA JAPAN GREATER CHINA
0
20
40
60
80
100
KTO
NN
ES (
WFE)
ASEAN LATIN AMERICA OTHER MARKETS
54
Norway exported more to almost
everywhere except Russia, Ukraine,
Finland & greater China
Source: NSEC
Norwegian Salmon Exports, January-November
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
Poland
Russia
UK
Baltics
Netherlands
Germany
Japan
Finland
Portugal
Czech
NOV-15 NOV-14
55
Chile exported more to everywhere
except the EU, Japan and “others”
Source: Kontali
Chilean Salmon Exports, January-October
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200
USA
Brazil
EU
Other Am.
Russia
Other FarEast
Japan
Others
South Korea
China
Other Europe
OCT-15 OCT-14
56
Exports of fresh Chilean products up
Source: NOAA
Chilean Atlantic Salmon Exports, January-October
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
Fresh
Frozen
Fresh fillets
Frozen fillets
Smoked/Salted
Other
2015 2014
57
58
Atlantic salmon prices fell in 2015
(Chilean salmon prices decreased the most)
Source: NOAA
Average US Import Prices, Selected Farmed Atlantic Salmon Products
Fresh Fillets Whole Fresh
Frozen Fillets
0.02.04.06.08.0
10.012.014.0
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Some US retailers expand into new
‘non-antibiotic’ categories
Source: IntraFish
59
