Sagar Cements Ltd - National Stock Exchange of India Cement Fair Value Rs 202 CMP Rs 133 November 01, 2011 Sagar Cements Ltd’s (Sagar’s) Q2FY12 revenues and margins exceeded CRISIL

© CRISIL Limited. All Rights Reserved.

Enhancing investment decisions

Q2FY12 Result Update

Sagar Cements Ltd


Explanation of CRISIL Fundamental and Valuation (CFV) matrix

The CFV Matrix (CRISIL Fundamental and Valuation Matrix) addresses the two important analysis of an investment making process –

Analysis of Fundamentals (addressed through Fundamental Grade) and Analysis of Returns (Valuation Grade) The fundamental

grade is assigned on a five-point scale from grade 5 (indicating Excellent fundamentals) to grade 1 (Poor fundamentals) The

valuation grade is assigned on a five-point scale from grade 5 (indicating strong upside from the current market price (CMP)) to

grade 1 (strong downside from the CMP).

CRISIL Fundamental Grade

Assessment CRISIL Valuation Grade

Assessment

5/5 Excellent fundamentals 5/5 Strong upside (>25% from CMP)

4/5 Superior fundamentals 4/5 Upside (10-25% from CMP)

3/5 Good fundamentals 3/5 Align (+-10% from CMP)

2/5 Moderate fundamentals 2/5 Downside (- 10-25% from CMP)

1/5 Poor fundamentals 1/5 Strong downside (<-25% from CMP)

Analyst Disclosure

Each member of the team involved in the preparation of the grading report, hereby affirms that there exists no conflict of interest

that can bias the grading recommendation of the company. Additional Disclosure

This report has been sponsored by NSE - Investor Protection Fund Trust (NSEIPFT). Disclaimer:

This Exchange-commissioned Report (Report) is based on data publicly available or from sources considered reliable by CRISIL

(Data). However, CRISIL does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of the Data / Report and is not responsible for

any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of Data / Report. The Data / Report are subject to change without

any prior notice. Opinions expressed herein are our current opinions as on the date of this Report. Nothing in this Report constitutes

investment, legal, accounting or tax advice or any solicitation, whatsoever. The Report is not a recommendation to buy / sell or hold

any securities of the Company. CRISIL especially states that it has no financial liability, whatsoever, to the subscribers / users of this

Report. This Report is for the personal information only of the authorized recipient in India only. This Report should not be

reproduced or redistributed or communicated directly or indirectly in any form to any other person – especially outside India or

published or copied in whole or in part, for any purpose.

© CRISIL Limited. All Rights Reserved. CRISIL RESEARCH | 1

Sagar Cements Ltd Results exceed expectation - realisations remain strong

Fundamental Grade 2/5 (Moderate fundamentals)

Valuation Grade 5/5 (CMP has strong upside) Industry Cement

Fair Value Rs 202 CMP Rs 133

November 01, 2011

Sagar Cements Ltd’s (Sagar’s) Q2FY12 revenues and margins exceeded CRISIL Research’s expectations. The outperformance was on account of firm realisations against our expectation of a decline. Production discipline by cement players supported realisations in the southern markets. We have revised our earnings estimates upwards. We expect cement prices in the southern region to be under pressure given the oversupply situation and tapering demand. Consequently, we maintain our fundamental grade of 2/5. Q2FY12 result analysis

• Sagar’s Q2FY12 revenues increased by 94% y-o-y, driven by 31% growth

in volumes and 62% growth in average realisations. The growth was

primarily on account of a lower base as turmoil in Andhra Pradesh had

affected the performance in Q2FY11. However, revenues dipped by 3.0%

q-o-q due to the lean season.

• EBITDA margin was 14.6% against a loss in Q2FY11. However, margin

dipped sharply q-o-q from 23.5% in Q1FY12 primarily on account of an

increase in fuel cost (more imported coal due to labour strike at Singareni

collieries) and transportation cost (due to higher sales outside Andhra

Pradesh and increase in diesel prices). EBITDA per tonne was Rs 604

compared to a loss in Q2FY11 and Rs 987 in Q1FY12.

• The company had received incentives under the Andhra Pradesh Industrial

Policy in Q2FY11, which were missing this quarter. Hence, other income

declined from Rs 102 mn in Q2FY11 to Rs 1.0 mn in Q2FY12.

• Adjusted PAT was Rs 59 mn against a loss of Rs 53 in Q2FY11. PAT also

dropped by 68% q-o-q due to margin contraction. Earnings estimates – revised upwards

We have raised our average realisation estimate by 12.0% for FY12 and by 10.9% for FY13. We expect cement prices to moderate in H2FY12, hence our realisation assumption of Rs 4,112 for FY12 is lower than the average realisation of Rs 4,611 for H1FY12 and Rs 4,561 for Q2FY12. Consequently, our PAT is revised upwards by 25% in FY12 and 13% in FY13. Valuations: Current market price has strong upside

We continue to value Sagar based on the sum-of-the-parts method. We have used EV/tonne multiple for the core business and EV/EBITDA multiple for its investment in the Sagar-Vicat JV. We maintain our fair value of Rs 202 and the valuation grade of 5/5.

KEY FORECAST

(Rs mn) FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E

Operating income 2,701 4,305 4,245 5,920 6,414

EBITDA 653 905 730 1,045 1,048

Adj PAT 189 202 174 302 299

Adj EPS-Rs 12.6 13.5 11.6 17.4 17.2

EPS growth (%) (49.2) 6.7 (13.7) 49.5 (0.9)

Dividend yield (%) 12.1 2.3 1.7 1.7 1.7

RoCE (%) 11.4 13.7 9.9 15.2 13.9

RoE (%) 11.8 9.6 7.9 12.6 11.2

PE (x) 2.6 9.9 11.5 7.7 7.7

P/BV (x) 0.2 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8

EV/EBITDA (x) 4.4 4.7 6.0 4.7 4.3

NM: Not meaningful; CMP: Current market price

Source: Company, CRISIL Research estimate

CFV MATRIX

KEY STOCK STATISTICS NIFTY 5258

NSE ticker SAGCEM

Face value (Rs per share) 10

Shares outstanding (mn) 17.4

Market cap (Rs mn)/(US$ mn) 2,319/47

Enterprise value (Rs mn) /(US$ mn) 4,690/95

52-week range (Rs) (H/L) 160/108

Beta 1.04

Free float (%) 41.6

Avg daily volumes (30-days) 1,337

Avg daily value (30-days) (Rs mn) 0.2

SHAREHOLDING PATTERN

PERFORMANCE VIS-À-VIS MARKET

Returns

1-m 3-m 6-m 12-m

SAGAR 0% -5% -9% -4%

NIFTY 6% -5% -9% -14%

ANALYTICAL CONTACT Chetan Majithia (Head) [email protected]

Onkar Kulkarni [email protected]

Vishal Rampuria [email protected]

Client servicing desk

+91 22 3342 3561 [email protected]

1 2 3 4 5

1

2

3

4

5

Valuation Grade

Fu

nd

am

en

tal G

rad

e

Poor Fundamentals

ExcellentFundamentals

Str

on

gD

ow

nsi

de

Str

on

gU

psi

de

44.2% 44.2% 40.6%51.6%

0.0%7.5% 7.8%

8.3%

6.8%

48.3% 48.0% 51.1%41.6%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Dec-10 March-11 Jun-11 Sep-11

Promoter FII DII Others


Sagar Cements Ltd

Q2FY12 Result Summary (Rs mn) Q2FY12 Q1FY12 Q2FY11 q-o-q (%) y-o-y (%) H1FY12 H1FY11 y-o-y (%)

Operating income 1,673 1,725 864 (3.0) 93.6 3,398 2,169 56.7 Raw materials cost 139 121 197 14.6 (29.4) 261 417 (37.5) (Increase) / Decrease in Stock in Trade 35 75 (112) 52.9 N.M 110 (107) (203.4) Raw materials cost (% of net sales) 10% 11% 10% (96) bps 59 bps 11% 14% (342) bps Power & fuel cost 453 368 380 23.0 19.2 821 765 7.4 Other expenses 751 701 410 7.1 82.9 1,452 937 54.9 Employee cost 50 54 37 (7.0) 35.4 104 77 35.4 EBITDA 245 406 (48) (39.6) NM 650 79 721.0 EBITDA margin 14.6% 23.5% -5.6% (887) bps NM 19.1% 3.7% 1,549 bps Depreciation 65 63 70 3.0 (7.2) 129 137 (6) EBIT 180 342 (119) (47.5) NM 522 (58) NM Interest and finance charges 87 87 71 (0.3) 22.9 174 140 24 Operating PBT 93 255 (189) (63.6) NM 348 (198) NM Other Income 1.0 1.7 102 (39.1) (99.0) 2.7 114.3 (98) PBT 94 257 (87) (63.5) NM 350 (84) NM Tax 35 75 (34) (53.6) NM 110 (36) (405) PAT 59 182 (53) (67.5) NM 241 (48) NM Adj PAT 59 182 (53) (67.5) NM 241 (48) NM Adj PAT margin 3.5% 10.5% -6.1% (701) bps 965 bps 7.1% -2.2% NM No of equity shares (mn) 17.4 14.1 15.0 23.3 15.9 17.4 15.0 16 Adj EPS (Rs) 3.4 12.9 (3.5) (73.7) NM 13.9 (3.2) NM

Source: Company, CRISIL Research

Volumes dip q-o-q marginally due to seasonality Fuel and freight costs impacted EBITDA per tonne

Source: Company, CRISIL Research Source: Company, CRISIL Research

Net sales and EBITDA margins Cement prices remain robust*

Source: Company, CRISIL Research Source: CRISIL Research *Hyderabad prices

287 421 386 309 303 416 411 406

2,913 2,837

3,251

2,822

3,818 4,238

4,659 4,561

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

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-09

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1

(Rs / tonne)('000 tonne)

Sales volumes Sales Realisations (RHS)

83239 330

-156

465

952 987

604

(400)

(200)

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(Rs /tonne)

1,3

84

1,2

81

895

1,2

36

1,3

04

864

1,1

26

1,6

82

1,7

25

1,6

73

26% 25%

3%

8% 10%

-6%

13%

24% 24%

15%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

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15%

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30%

0

250

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1,000

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1,750

2,000

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Dec-

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-10

Jun-

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-11

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(Rs mn)

Net Sales EBITDA Margin (RHS)

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100

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350

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-10

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-10

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Jun-1

1

Aug

-11

Oct

-11

(Rs / bag)


Sagar Cements Ltd

Share price movement Fair value movement since initiation

-indexed to 100

Source: NSE, CRISIL Research Source: NSE, CRISIL Research

0

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Jan-

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Sagar NIFTY

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Aug-1

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('000)(Rs)

Traded Traded Quantity (RHS) CRISIL Fair Value Sagar


Sagar Cements Ltd

KEY DEVELOPMENTS

Fuel cost up due to labour strike at Singareni collieries

The labour strike at Singareni collieries in support of the Telangana state has

impacted coal supplies to Sagar. As a result, the company had to import more

to meet its coal requirement. The percentage of imported coal in the total

consumption went up from ~50% in previous quarters to ~90% in this quarter.

Hence, the average fuel cost increased from Rs 707 per tonne to Rs 951 per

tonne in Q2FY12.

The management expects the supply issues to continue at least over the next

quarter and, hence, the cost of coal is expected to remain high as the company

imports more.

Higher sales outside Andhra Pradesh increased freight costs

Sagar’s dispatches outside Andhra Pradesh have increased by ~3x y-o-y and

17% q-o-q, which has resulted in increase in average transportation distance.

This and an increase in diesel prices have resulted in increase in freight cost by

56% to Rs 689 per tonne in Q2FY12.

Sales mix

(Rs mn) Q2FY12 Q1FY12 Q2FY11 q-o-q (%) y-o-y (%)

Andhra Pradesh 212 246 246 -14% -14%

as % of total 52% 60% 80%

Outside Andhra Pradesh 194 165 63 17% 210%

as % of total 48% 40% 20%

Total 406 411 308 -1% 32%

Source: Company, CRISIL Research

Other developments

Increase in promoter shareholding: As expected, the promoter shareholding

has increased from 40.6% to 51.6% after the completion of Amareshwari

Cements Ltd merger with the company.

Sagar-Vicat JV on track for completion: The management has reiterated

that phase I (2.75 mn tonne capacity) of the cement plant is on track for

commissioning by mid-2012.

Railway line to be on line by August 2012: The railway line at the

company’s existing plant is expected to be on line by June-August 2012.


Sagar Cements Ltd

EARNINGS ESTIMATES REVISED UPWARDS

We have revised our realisation estimate by 12% for FY12 to Rs 4,112 per

tonne. We expect realisation for FY13 to remain flat at Rs 4,112 per tonne

(earlier assumed at Rs 3,709 per tonne). The average realisation for the

company was Rs 4,611 per tonne in H1FY12. We expect sluggish demand and

oversupply in the southern region to correct cement prices in H2FY12.

Consequently, our FY12 realisation estimate is lower than H1FY12 realisation.

We have moderated our margins by 25 bps for FY12 due to increase in fuel and

transportation costs. The upward revision in realisation has resulted in

expansion of PAT margin by 57 bps in FY12 and 32 bps in FY13.

FY12E FY13E

Particulars Unit Old New % change Old New % change

Operating income (Rs mn) 5,335 5,920 11.0% 6,096 6,414 5.2%

EBITDA (Rs mn) 955 1,045 9.4% 994 1,048 5.4%

EBITDA margin % 17.9 17.7 -25bps 16.3 16.3 2bps

PAT (Rs mn) 242 302 25.0% 265 299 12.9%

PAT margin % 4.5 5.1 57bps 4.4 4.7 32bps

EPS Rs 13.9 17.4 25.0% 15.2 17.2 12.9%

Source: CRISIL Research


Sagar Cements Ltd

VALUATION

We continue to value Sagar based on the sum-of-the-parts method by using

EV/tonne of Rs 1,720 for the core business and its investments in Sagar-Vicat

JV at 6x EV/EBITDA. The core business is valued at Rs 143 per share and the

Vicat JV at Rs 59 per share. We maintain the fair value of Rs 202 per share.

One-year forward EV/tonne band One-year forward EV/EBITDA band


EV/EBITDA movement P/E movement


CRISIL IER reports released on Sagar Cements Ltd

Date Nature of report

Fundamental

grade Fair value

Valuation

grade

CMP

(on the date of report)

1-Dec-10 Initiating coverage* 2/5 Rs 202 5/5 Rs 125

25-Feb-11 Q3FY11 result update 2/5 Rs 202 5/5 Rs 135

09-Jun-11 Q4FY11 result update 2/5 Rs 202 5/5 Rs 137

18-Jul-11 Q1FY12 result update 2/5 Rs 202 5/5 Rs 135

01-Nov-11 Q2FY12 result update 2/5 Rs 202 5/5 Rs 133

* For detailed initiating coverage report please visit: www.ier.co.in

CRISIL Independent Equity Research reports are also available on Bloomberg (CRI <go>) and Thomson Reuters.

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EV 1500x 2000x 2500x 3000x

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+1 std dev

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1yr Fwd PE (x) Median PE

+1 std dev

-1 std dev


Sagar Cements Ltd

FINANCIALS

Note: All ratios are computed on Adj PAT

Source: Company, CRISIL Research estimate

Income statement

(Rs mn) FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E (Rs mn) FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E

Operating income 2,701 4,305 4,245 5,920 6,414 Liabilities

EBITDA 653 905 730 1,045 1,048 Equity share capital 150 150 150 174 174

EBITDA margin 24.2% 21.0% 17.2% 17.7% 16.3% Reserves 1,888 2,038 2,098 2,382 2,635

Depreciation 207 287 276 287 292 Minorities - - - - -

EBIT 447 618 454 758 755 Net worth 2,038 2,188 2,248 2,556 2,808

Interest 164 301 311 311 329 Convertible debt 10 10 10 10 10

Operating PBT 283 317 143 448 427 Other debt 2,510 2,296 2,388 2,788 2,688

Other income 4 3 84 3 20 Total debt 2,520 2,306 2,398 2,798 2,698

Exceptional inc/(exp) 6 0 (0) - - Deferred tax liability (net) 159 271 347 347 347

PBT 293 321 226 451 447 Total liabilities 4,717 4,765 4,993 5,701 5,854

Tax provision 98 119 52 149 147 Assets

Minority interest - - - - - Net fixed assets 3,822 3,782 3,376 3,189 2,997

PAT (Reported) 195 202 174 302 299 Capital WIP 183 103 61 61 61

Less: Exceptionals 6 0 (0) - - Total fixed assets 4,005 3,885 3,437 3,250 3,058

Adjusted PAT 189 202 174 302 299 Investments 150 381 860 1,360 1,360

Current assets

Ratios Inventory 430 493 558 664 720

FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E Sundry debtors 249 418 429 510 552

Growth Loans and advances 468 387 621 739 801

Operating income (%) 20.9 59.4 (1.4) 39.5 8.3 Cash & bank balance 115 31 33 250 539

EBITDA (%) 1.6 38.5 (19.3) 43.1 0.3 Marketable securities - - - - -

Adj PAT (%) (42.9) 6.7 (13.7) 73.3 (0.9) Total current assets 1,261 1,330 1,641 2,163 2,612

Adj EPS (%) (49.2) 6.7 (13.7) 49.5 (0.9) Total current liabilities 700 831 945 1,073 1,176

Net current assets 562 499 696 1,091 1,435

Profitability Intangibles/Misc. expenditure - - - - -

EBITDA margin (%) 24.2 21.0 17.2 17.7 16.3 Total assets 4,717 4,765 4,993 5,701 5,854

Adj PAT Margin (%) 7.0 4.7 4.1 5.1 4.7

RoE (%) 11.8 9.6 7.9 12.6 11.2 Cash flow

RoCE (%) 11.4 13.7 9.9 15.2 13.9 (Rs mn) FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E

RoIC (%) 9.6 12.1 14.5 16.4 17.6 Pre-tax profit 287 321 227 451 447

Total tax paid (13) (7) 24 (149) (147)

Valuations Depreciation 207 287 276 287 292

Price-earnings (x) 2.6 9.9 11.5 7.7 7.7 Working capital changes (354) (21) (195) (177) (56)

Price-book (x) 0.2 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 Net cash from operations 127 580 331 412 536

EV/EBITDA (x) 4.4 4.7 6.0 4.7 4.3 Cash from investments

EV/Sales (x) 1.1 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.7 Capital expenditure (1,050) (167) 172 (100) (100)

Dividend payout ratio (%) 30.2 23.2 20.0 13.3 13.5 Investments and others (150) (231) (479) (500) -

Dividend yield (%) 12.1 2.4 1.7 1.7 1.7 Net cash from investments (1,200) (398) (307) (600) (100)

Cash from financing

B/S ratios Equity raised/(repaid) 198 - (1,050) 24 -

Inventory days 88 66 82 68 66 Debt raised/(repaid) 431 (214) 92 400 (100)

Creditors days 109 81 93 76 75 Dividend (incl. tax) (59) (47) (41) (47) (47)

Debtor days 38 34 29 29 28 Others (incl extraordinaries) 548 (5) 977 29 (0)

Working capital days 36 39 49 46 49 Net cash from financing 1,117 (265) (22) 406 (147)

Gross asset turnover (x) 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.2 1 Change in cash position 44 (84) 2 218 289

Net asset turnover (x) 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.8 2 Closing cash 115 31 33 250 539

Sales/operating assets (x) 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.8 2.0

Current ratio (x) 1.8 1.6 1.7 2.0 2.2 Quarterly financials

Debt-equity (x) 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 (Rs mn) Q2FY11 Q3FY11 Q4FY11 Q1FY12 Q2FY12

Net debt/equity (x) 1.2 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.8 Net Sales 864 1,126 1,682 1,725 1,673

Interest coverage 2.7 2.1 1.5 2.4 2.3 Change (q-o-q) -33.7% 30.3% 49.3% 2.5% -3.0%

EBITDA (48) 141 396 406 245

Per share Change (q-o-q) NM NM 180.9% 2.4% -39.6%

FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E EBITDA margin -5.6% 12.5% 23.5% 23.5% 14.6%

Adj EPS (Rs) 12.6 13.5 11.6 17.4 17.2 PAT (53) 31 193 182 59

CEPS 26.4 32.6 30.0 33.9 34.0 Adj PAT (53) 31 193 182 59

Book value 135.8 145.9 149.9 147.0 161.5 Change (q-o-q) NM NM 520.8% -5.6% -67.5%

Dividend (Rs) 3.9 3.1 2.3 2.3 2.3 Adj PAT margin -6.1% 2.8% 11.5% 10.5% 3.5%

Actual o/s shares (mn) 15.0 15.0 15.0 17.4 17.4 Adj EPS (3.0) 1.8 11.1 12.9 3.4

Balance Sheet


CRISIL Research Team

Senior Director

Mukesh Agarwal +91 (22) 3342 3035 [email protected]

Analytical Contacts Tarun Bhatia Director, Capital Markets +91 (22) 3342 3226 [email protected]

Prasad Koparkar Head, Industry & Customised Research +91 (22) 3342 3137 [email protected]

Chetan Majithia Head, Equities +91 (22) 3342 4148 [email protected]

Jiju Vidyadharan Head, Funds & Fixed Income Research +91 (22) 3342 8091 [email protected]

Ajay D'Souza Head, Industry Research +91 (22) 3342 3567 [email protected]

Ajay Srinivasan Head, Industry Research +91 (22) 3342 3530 [email protected]

Sridhar C Head, Industry Research +91 (22) 3342 3546 [email protected]

Manoj Mohta Head, Customised Research +91 (22) 3342 3554 [email protected]

Sudhir Nair Head, Customised Research +91 (22) 3342 3526 [email protected]

Business Development

Vinaya Dongre Head, Industry & Customised Research +91 (22) 33428025 [email protected]

Ashish Sethi Head, Capital Markets +91 (22) 33428023 [email protected]

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CRISIL is a global analytical company providing ratings, research, and risk and policy advisory services. We are

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Ahmedabad / Mumbai Vishal Shah - Manager, Business Development Email : [email protected] I Phone : 9820598908 Bengaluru Gayathri Ananth – Senior Manager, Business Development Email : [email protected] I Phone : 9886498175 Chennai / Hyderabad Kaliprasad Ponnuru - Manager, Business Development Email : [email protected] I Phone : 9642004668

Delhi Arjun Gopalkrishnan - Manager, Business Development Email :[email protected] I Phone : 9833364422 Kolkata Priyanka Agarwal - Manager, Business Development Email : [email protected] I Phone : 9903060685 Mumbai / Pune Vivek Tandon - Manager, Business Development Email : [email protected] I Phone : 9903060685

Ashish Sethi – Head, Business Development Email : [email protected] I Phone : 9920807575

Regional Contacts:

To know more about CRISIL IER, please contact our team members:

Sagar Sawarkar – Senior Manager, Business Development Email : [email protected] I Phone : 9821638322
