Upload
others
View
12
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Sagar Cements Ltd.
BUY
- 1 of 21 - Friday 01st July, 2016
This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.
ST
OC
K P
OIN
TE
R
Target Price ₹941 CMP ₹680 FY19E EV/EBITDA 6.1x
Index Details Sagar Cements Ltd. (Sagar) is a cement manufacturer with a
dominant presence in South India. We believe that the cement
industry is on an up-turn and expect Sagar to be a key beneficiary.
We are positive on the company given that:
i) The cement industry is on the verge of a turn-around: South India
(which accounts for ~ 70% of Sagar’s revenues) has witnessed a five
year lull in cement demand owing to surplus capacities, subdued
demand and political unrest over the creation of a separate state,
Telangana. However, with the political resolution of Telangana,
limited planned capacity additions in the area and an anticipated
pick-up in construction and irrigation projects, cement demand in
the South is expected to see a revival going forward. We expect key
markets of AP, Karnataka and TN to clock 8% CAGR during FY18-19.
ii) Sagar has recently completed the acquisition of BMM cements
which has a grinding capacity 1 mtpa for Rs 540 crores. It has also
received the approval to acquire a 0.2 mtpa grinding unit of Toshali
Industries for Rs 60 crores. Post these acquisitions, the grinding
capacity of the company will increase to ~4.3 mtpa from 2.75 mtpa.
Inorganic growth at the start of the potential cement up-cycle will
help the company fully capitalize on the demand potential.
Accordingly, we expect revenues to grow at a 3 year CAGR of 16% to
Rs 1178 crore by FY19.
iii) Freight cost as a % of total revenues is expected to decline from
16% in FY16 to ~13% in FY19 owing to: a) BMM Cements is
strategically located such that it can service the Southern markets,
while Sagar’s standalone plant can focus on supplies to Maharashtra
and Orissa. This arrangement has the potential to reduce the lead
distance by ~20% and b) Commencement of the railway siding unit is
expected to help the company save ~ Rs 12 crore annually.
Sensex 27,144
Nifty 8,328
BSE 100 8,486
Industry Cement
Scrip Details
Mkt Cap (₹cr) 1,184
BVPS (₹) 316.1
O/s Shares (Cr) 1.7
Av Vol (Lacs) 0.2
52 Week H/L 719/305
Div Yield (%) 0.4
FVPS (₹) 10.0
Shareholding Pattern
Shareholders %
Promoters 56.93
Public 43.07
Total 100.0
Sagar vs. Sensex
40
140
240
340
440
540
640
740
15000
17000
19000
21000
23000
25000
27000
29000
31000
May-1
5
Ju
n-1
5
Ju
l-15
Au
g-1
5
Sep
-15
Oct-
15
No
v-1
5
Dec-1
5
Jan
-16
Feb
-16
Mar-1
6
Ap
r-16
May-1
6
Ju
n-1
6
Sensex Sagar (RHS)
Key Financials (₹ in Cr)
Y/E Mar Net
Sales EBITDA
Adj PAT
EPS (Rs)
EPS Growth (%)
RONW (%)
ROCE (%)
P/E (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
2016 753 124 46 26.5 -38.5 8.4 9.7 14.7 8.5
2017E 869 147 50 28.8 8.7 8.5 10.7 24.0 10.7
2018E 1,019 192 80 45.7 58.7 12.3 15.1 15.1 7.8
2019E 1,178 230 111 64.1 40.2 15.4 18.4 10.8 6.1
- 2 of 21- Friday 01st July, 2016
This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.
ii) Power cost is expected to decline given that: a) BMM has a 25 MW
captive power plant with a surplus of 15 MW which is sold to AP Genco
b) Coal prices are declining due to increasing emphasis on cleaner
fuels.
iii) With the uptick in demand coupled with lower freight and power
costs, we expect Sagar’s EBITDA margin to expand from 16.5% in FY16
to 19.5% by FY19.
We initiate coverage on Sagar as a BUY with a Price Objective of ₹941,
representing a potential upside of 38% over a period of 18 months. We
have arrived at our target price by assigning an EV/EBITDA multiple of
8x to FY19E EBITDA of Rs 230 crores.
- 3 of 21- Friday 01st July, 2016
This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.
Company Background
Incorporated in 1981, Sagar Cements is a south based cement manufacturer with a
cement capacity of 3 mtpa and a clinker capacity of ~ 2.3 mtpa. It earns ~70% of its
revenues from sales to south India. The company primarily manufacturers the OPC
variety of cement from its plant situated in the Nalgonda district of Telanga and has
a dealership strength of ~1600.
In FY15, it acquired BMM Cements for Rs 540 crores which has a cement capacity
of 1 mtpa and a clinker capacity of 0.7 mtpa. BMM Cements has a 25 MW thermal
captive power plant and a 20 year limestone mining lease. In June 2016, Sagar
received an approval to acquire a 0.2 mtpa grinding unit of Toshali Cements for Rs
60 crores. It further plans to increase the capacity of this unit to 0.3 mtpa at a cost of
Rs 6 crore post acquisitions. Post both these acquisitions, Sagar Cement’s
consolidated capacity will increase ~4.3 mtpa from 2.75 mtpa in FY16.
Sagar Cements– Snapshot
Sagar Cements (Standalone)
FY16 Revenues: Rs 622 crores
Cement:3.0 mtpa
Clinker: 2.3 mtpa
Capacity
Utilization:55%
Capacity Geography Mix Channel Mix Freight Mix
AP & T: 42%
Karnataka:10.5%
TN: 16.8%
Maharashtra: 19%
Orrisa: 9%
Trade: 75%
Non-Trade: 25%
Road: 100%
Source: Sagar Cements, Ventura Research
- 4 of 21- Friday 01st July, 2016
This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.
Key Investment Highlights
Well poised to capture demand revival in the South
Sagar Cements, with a grinding capacity of 4 mn tones (including 1 mn tones post
acquisition of BMM industries) is a dominant player in south India with presence
across all five key states – AP, Telangana, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Karnataka. In
addition, it has also expanded its geographic wings to Maharashtra and Orrisa.
However, it continues to earn nearly~70% of its revenues from the south.
South India has witnessed a five year lull in cement demand owing to surplus
capacities, subdued demand and political unrest over the creation of a separate
state, Telangana. However, with the political resolution of Telangana, limited
planned capacity additions in the area and an anticipated pick-up in construction and
irrigation projects, cement demand in the south is expected to revive going forward.
Diversifying geographic base, but South continues to dominate
70.8%
53.7% 51.0% 54.0%
38.8% 41.7%
7.0%
13.9%14.0% 11.0%
15.1% 10.5%
5.3%
11.8% 13.3% 10.0%
16.1% 16.8%
9.3%11.8% 13.5% 16.0%
20.0% 19.0%
4.1% 3.8% 3.9% 6.0% 7.1% 8.7%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16
AP & T Karnataka TN Maharashtra Orrisa Others
Source: Sagar Cements, Ventura Research
- 5 of 21- Friday 01st July, 2016
This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.
Our industry interactions suggest that while there has been an increase in project
clearances, on-the ground construction activity is yet to pick-up. Barring roads,
which has seen a significant improvement in pace of execution, other infrastructure
projects are yet to take-off. Accordingly, we believe that a real-uptick in cement off-
take will happen from FY18 onwards, when construction of most projects is likely to
be in full swing. Accordingly, we expect cement demand to grow at 6.7% in FY17;
this is primarily attributable to the low base (-1.3% in FY16). We expect an 8%
CAGR from FY18 onwards.
Diversification to faster growing areas a plus
The management has strategically reduced its exposure to Andhra Pradesh from
~71% of total revenues in FY11 to ~40% in FY16. It has expanded its presence in
the Tamil Nadu and Kerala markets which are relatively faster growing, coupled with
an enhanced presence in Maharashtra and Orissa, which are historically lucrative
markets owing to favorable demand-supply dynamics. This strategic shift has
enabled the company to report a 5% revenue CAGR during FY11-16 (standalone)
despite the fact that AP has de-grown at a CAGR of 6% during the same period.
South Industry: Demand likely to revive after a subdued period of 5 years, utilizations to cross 60%
50%
52%
54%
56%
58%
60%
62%
64%
66%
68%
70%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E
in m n tonnes
Capacity Dem and Utilization (RHS)
Source: Ventura Research
FY11-FY15: Capacity CAGR: 6.1% Demand CAGR: 0.9% Average utilization level: 59.3%
FY16-FY18 Estimated: Capacity CAGR: 1.6% Demand CAGR: 7.9% Average utilization level: 63%
- 6 of 21- Friday 01st July, 2016
This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.
Major infra activity lined up in key markets
Source: Ventura Research
Re-alignment of markets augurs well for future prospects
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
AP & T Karnataka TN Maharashtra Orrisa
in mn tonnes
FY11 FY16
Only market to de-grow
Source: Sagar Cements, Ventura Research
- 7 of 21- Friday 01st July, 2016
This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.
Sagar’s plant in Nalgonda, Telangana is within 100 kms of Amravati, the proposed
state capital of Andhra Pradesh. Amravati is expected to witness construction
activities towards enhancement of road and housing infrastructure. With close
proximity to the city, Sagar Cements is expected to emerge as the biggest
beneficiary of the development of the new state capital.
Acquisition of BMM results in multiple synergies
In June 2008, Sagar invested Rs 86 crores in a JV with Vicat SA, France in order to
set up a 5.5 mtpa cement plant in Karnataka. In September 2014, Sagar sold its
entire 47% stake in the JV for Rs 435 crores, thus multiplying its investment by more
than 5x. In August 2015, Sagar completed its acquisition of BMM Cements for Rs
570 crores, funded primarily from the profits booked through the JV.
About BMM:
Capacity: 1 mn ton
Location: Karnataka- Andhra Pradesh Border
Capacity Utilization: 45% in FY16
Power: 25 MW Captive Power Plant
Limestone: 20 years mining lease granted in 2016
South markets to recover from de-growth Orrisa and Maharashtra to maintain growth pace
Error! Not a valid
link.
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16e FY17e FY18e FY19e
AP & T Karnataka TN
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16e FY17e FY18e FY19e
Maharashtra Orrisa
Source: Sagar Cements, Ventura Research
Source: Sagar Cements, Ventura Research
- 8 of 21- Friday 01st July, 2016
This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.
Acquisition of BMM provides multiple synergies for Sagar, as enumerated below:
i) Reduction in freight cost:
BMM, located at the AP-Karnataka border, is well positioned to service the southern
markets of Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and AP, while Sagar’s plant in Nalagoda, can
focus on supplies to Maharashtra and Orissa. This arrangement has the potential to
bring down Sagar’s lead distance from 650-700 kms to 500-550 kms, a reduction of
nearly 20%. Sagar’s freight cost which ranges between Rs 650-700 per tone, is
expected to come down to Rs 550-600 per tone by FY18-19 owing to the anticipated
benefits of reduced lead distance post acquisition of BMM.
BMM – Key Financials
in Rs crs FY14 FY15
Volumes ( in mn tonnes) 0.348 0.158
Realisations (Rs/Tonne) 4110.0 4321.0
Revenues 149.5 115.5
EBITDA -9.7 6.0
PAT -65.7 -23.4
Fixed Asset 396.2 439.9
Source: Ventura Research
Pre-acquisition distribution model – High lead distance as far off markets services
Sagar Cements,
Mattampally
Source: Sagar Cements, Ventura Research
- 9 of 21- Friday 01st July, 2016
This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.
Commencement of captive railway siding to further reduce freight cost:
Sagar has completed the construction of its captive railway siding, at a cost of Rs
123 crores. Currently, 100% of its cement dispatches are via road in the absence of
railway connectivity to its plant. Hence, the railway siding was constructed with the
aim of reducing freight cost, enhancing its presence in far away markets at
competitive rates. The management has indicated that the trial run of the unit has
begun. However, the railway minister is yet to re-classify the freight cost of the
railway siding to industrial rates, as a result of which the company has not yet
derived significant cost savings. The rates are expected to be revised in FY17, post
which, the company is expected to derive savings of ~Rs 12 crores annually,
translating to 150-200 bps expansion in operating margin.
ii) Reduction in power cost:
Unlike Sagar, BMM has a 25 MW captive coal based power plant. With captive
requirements of only 10 MW, BMM has a PPA to sell 15 MW to AP Genco @ Rs
5.4/unit. Sagar is evaluating the options of continuing its contract with AP Genco
Post BMM acquisition– Same markets can now be serviced through a shorter lead distance
Sagar Cements,
Mattampally
BMM, Gudipadu
Source: Sagar Cements, Ventura Research
- 10 of 21- Friday 01st July, 2016
This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.
versus increasing captive consumption. Either way, the company stands to benefit
either through sale of power which compensates for higher cost power purchased or
through the consumption of low cost electricity – as captive power consumption will
cost ~Rs 4/unit as compared to Rs 6.3/unit in case of purchased electricity.
Accordingly, Sagar’s power and fuel cost which stands at ~Rs 1250-1300 per tone is
expected to reduce to ~ Rs 1100 per ton.
Sagar’s power cost per tone reduced from Rs 1220 per tone in FY15 to Rs 1120 per
tone in FY16 owing to:
i) Captive consumption in BMM’s plant, and
ii) Fall in coal prices.
Sagar has a PPA with Singareni coal field for the supply of coal. However, Sagar’s
consumption is skewed towards international coal – domestic: international coal mix
stood at 25:75. According to the management, the quality of the international coal
grade variety is far superior, thereby increasing the price competitiveness of the
same when adjusted on gross calorific value basis. Coal prices have nearly havled
from ~$130/tone to $60/tone from May 2011 to May 2016 as the emphasis, globally,
has shifted to cleaner fuels.
Also, thanks to technology initiatives, the electricity consumption per unit of
production has been on a declining trend adding to the savings in power and fuel
costs.
Coal prices are expected to remain subdued
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
May
-11
Jul-
11
Sep
-11
No
v-11
Jan
-12
Mar
-12
May
-12
Jul-
12
Sep
-12
No
v-12
Jan
-13
Mar
-13
May
-13
Jul-
13
Sep
-13
No
v-13
Jan
-14
Mar
-14
May
-14
Jul-
14
Sep
-14
No
v-14
Jan
-15
Mar
-15
May
-15
Jul-
15
Sep
-15
No
v-15
Jan
-16
Mar
-16
May
-16
in $/Ton
Australian Coal Price
Source: Ventura Research
- 11 of 21- Friday 01st July, 2016
This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.
iii) Reduce tax liability:
BMM reported a net loss of Rs 57 crores and Rs 65 crores in FY13 and FY14
respectively. Sagar can use these accumulated losses to lower its tax liability. In
FY16, Sagar’s tax rate stood at 12% and is expected to remain at 12% in FY17,
before increasing to 28% in FY18-19.
Limestone reserves adequate to support any expansions
Around 1.4 tonnes of limestone is required to manufacture 1 tonne of cement. South
India has abundant limestone reserves, which is also the reason for surplus cement
capacities in that region.
Sagar’s limestone mine is within 4 kms of its plant. The mine has reserves of more
than 1000 mt, which can serve Sagar’s requirements for 100+ years. BMM, too, has
received a 20 year mining lease in 2016, with reserves of 155 mt.
Prior to the grant of the mining lease, the company had to purchase limestone
externally thereby incurring high expenditure. Hence, BMM operated at only 16%
utilization levels in FY15. Even so, Sagar’s (consolidated) raw material expenses
shot up from Rs ~400 per tone to Rs 680 per tone in FY16. As the mining lease is
now obtained for BMM, we expect raw material costs to reduce to Rs 450 per tone
by FY19.
Declining electricity consumption per unit… …power cost per tone also declining
Error! Not a valid link.
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15
in KWH
Electrcity consumption per unit of production
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16
in Rs per tonne
Power Cost per tonne
Source: Sagar Cements, Ventura Research
Source: Sagar Cements, Ventura Research
- 12 of 21- Friday 01st July, 2016
This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.
Well-thought out expansion strategy
We derived great comfort from our interaction with the management. With a hands-
on management approach to the situation on the ground, they have adopted a
strategy to double their capacity every 12 years, timing it with the next up-cycle in
the cement industry. The cement industry, is inherently, cyclical in nature, with
demand growth of ~6% indicting a down-cycle and a demand growth of ~10%,
indicating an up-cycle.
Sagar completed the acquisition of BMM in 2015, at the start of the potential next
up-cycle in the cement sector. This strategy ensures that the company expands and
consolidates its capacity during a down-cycle and maximizes the demand potential
in an up-cycle, thereby ensuring that equity investors are awarded with high RoEs.
Key Risks:
Lower than anticipated rainfall: While the Met department has forecast
above normal monsoons for this year, any deviation will hurt the rural
economy to a great extent. This will adversely impact all underlying sectors,
including cement.
Increase in coal prices: Sagar is entirely dependent on coal for its fuel
requirements. Any increase in coal prices will put pressure on the operating
margins.
Cement cycles since 1990
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
FY
90
FY
91
FY
92
FY
93
FY
94
FY
95
FY
96
FY
97
FY
98
FY
99
FY
00
FY
01
FY
02
FY
03
FY
04
FY
05
FY
06
FY
07
FY
08
FY
09
FY
10
FY
11
FY
12
FY
13
FY
14
FY
15
in mn tonnes
~6% CAGR
~10% CAGR
~6% CAGR
~10% CAGR
~6% CAGR
Source: Sagar Cements, Ventura Research
- 13 of 21- Friday 01st July, 2016
This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.
Financial Performance
In Q4FY16, Sagar reported revenue de-growth of 15% YoY owing to 5% decline in
volumes and 8% decline in realizations. The decline in volume and pricing was on
account of subdued demand conditions. Q4FY16 volumes stood at 0.46 mn tones,
while net realization stood at Rs 4670 per tone. EBITDA margin contracted 600 bps
to 16.8% in Q4FY16 owing to lower realizations, higher employee and operating
costs. The company reported a PAT of Rs 15.2 crores, down 30% YoY owing to
contraction in operating margin.
Quarterly Financial Performance (₹ in crore)
Particulars Q4FY16 Q4FY15 FY15 FY16
Net Sales 153.4 181.3 575.6 753.4
Growth % -15.4 30.9%
Total Expenditure 127.6 139.8 519.2 629.4
EBIDTA 25.8 41.5 56.4 124.0
EBDITA Margin % 16.8 22.9 9.8 16.5
Depreciation 7.5 5.9 21.5 33.7
EBIT (EX OI) 18.3 35.6 34.9 90.4
Other Income 7.93 5.30 366.3 4.1
EBIT 26.2 40.9 401.2 94.5
Margin % 17.1 22.5 69.7 12.5
Interest 8.6 4.9 23.1 41.8
Exceptional items 0.00 0 0.0 0.0
PBT 17.6 36.0 378.1 52.7
Margin % 11.4 19.9 65.7 7.0
Provision for Tax 2.4 14.3 81.4 6.6
PAT 15.2 21.7 296.7 46.1
PAT Margin (%) 9.9 12.0 51.5 6.1
Source: Sagar Cements, Ventura Research
- 14 of 21- Friday 01st July, 2016
This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.
Financial Outlook
Revenues expected to grow at a CAGR of 16%
We expect Sagar’s revenues to grow at a 3 year CAGR of 16% to Rs 1178 crore in
FY19E on the back of a ~12% CAGR in volumes. We expect sales volume to touch
2.8 mn tones and net realization to clock at Rs 4250 per ton by FY19. The steady
volume growth will be driven by:
i) Pick-up in construction activity in the South
ii) Ramp up of production from BMM Cements and
iii) Incremental sales volumes from the recently acquired Toshali cements.
For a long period, the utilization of players in the South remained at sub 50% levels
owing to political disputes. However, with the resolution of the dispute and
anticipated pick-up in key markets, led by creation of a new capital state Amravati (
within 100 kms from Sagar’s plant) , we expect Sagar’s utilization level to increase to
~64% by FY19 from 52% in FY16.
Utilizations to gradually improve… Volumes and realizations to pick up
Error! Not a valid
link.
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E
in mtpa
Capacity Capacity Utilisation (RHS)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E
in Rs per tonnein mtpa
Volumes Net Realisation per tonne
Source: Ventura Research
Source: Ventura Research
- 15 of 21- Friday 01st July, 2016
This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.
Cement prices in Chennai and Bengaluru relatively firm
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Jan
-15
Feb
-15
Mar-
15
Ap
r-15
May-1
5
Ju
n-1
5
Ju
l-15
Au
g-1
5
Sep
-15
Oct-
15
No
v-1
5
Dec-1
5
Jan
-16
Feb
-16
Mar-
16
Ap
r-16
May-1
6
in Rs per bag
Hyderabad Bengaluru Bidar Bellary
Chennai Sholapur Pune Mumbai
Source: Ventura Research Revenues to grow at a 3 year CAGR of 16%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E
Rs crs
Revenues % Growth (RHS)
Source: Ventura Research
- 16 of 21- Friday 01st July, 2016
This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.
EBITDA and PAT to grow at a steady pace
EBITDA is expected to grow at a 3 year CAGR of 23% to Rs 230 crore by FY19 on
the back of savings in freight and power costs as the synergies from BMM’s
acquisition starts to kick in. Accordingly EBITDA margin is expected to expand from
~16.5% in FY16 to ~19.5% by FY19. We expect the company to report a PAT of Rs
111 crores and EPS of Rs 64 in FY19.
EBITDA margin set to expand PAT to grow at a robust pace
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
0
50
100
150
200
250
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E
in Rs crs
EBITDA EBITDA margin (RHS)
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E
in Rs crs
PAT PAT margin (RHS)
Source: Ventura Research
Source: Ventura Research
Debt levels comfortable Return ratios to improve
Error! Not a valid link.
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E
in Rs crs
D/E Interest Coverage (RHS)
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E
RoE RoCE
Source: Ventura Research
Source: Ventura Research
- 17 of 21- Friday 01st July, 2016
This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.
Valuation
We initiate coverage on Sagar Cements as a BUY with a Price Objective of ₹941,
representing a potential upside of 38% over a period of 18 months. We have arrived
at our target price by assigning an EV/EBITDA multiple of 8x to FY19E EBITDA
estimate of Rs 230 crores. We believe Sagar is a good play in the boom of the
cement cycle given its latest acquisitions to enhance capacities and provide synergy
benefits in the form of lower freight and power costs, imminent pick-up in cement
demand in South and strong balance sheet strength. The assigned valuation implies
a EV/Tonne of $64, which is in-line with similar sized peers.
Sagar’s EV/EBITDA multiple trend
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
Ma
y-1
5
Ju
n-1
5
Ju
l-1
5
Au
g-1
5
Se
p-1
5
Oc
t-1
5
No
v-1
5
De
c-1
5
Ja
n-1
6
Fe
b-1
6
Ma
r-1
6
EV 7X 8.5X 10X 11.5X 13X
Source: Ventura Research
- 18 of 21- Friday 01st July, 2016
This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.
Sagar’s Price/Book multiple trend
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Ju
n-1
0
Ju
n-1
1
Ju
n-1
2
Ju
n-1
3
Ju
n-1
4
Ju
n-1
5
Ju
n-1
6
CMP 1X 1.2X 1.4X 1.6X 1.8X
Source: Ventura Research
Peer comparison on operational parameters Company Capacity FY16
in mn tonnes FY15 FY16 FY15 FY16 FY15 FY16 FY15 FY16 FY15 FY16
Sagar Cements 3.8 46% 52% 395 684 633 616 1,226 1,126 329 634
Sanghi Industries 4.1 82% 83% 217 291 1125 1190 1040 892 664 783
Mangalam Cements 3.3 71% 71% 807 970 1092 1068 1100 790 328 149
Deccan Cements 2.3 48% 58% 325 376 871 952 1248 1123 606 870
Saurashtra Cements 2.4 62% NA 256 NA 530 NA 1045 NA 599 NA
Star Ferro & Cement 3.7 68% 71.1% 1052 1314 1118 NA 793 NA 1880 1448
Capcity Utilisation RM per tonne Freight cost per tonne Power & Fuel cost per tonne EBITDA per tonne
Source: Ventura Research
- 19 of 21- Friday 01st July, 2016
This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.
Sagar reasonably priced compared to peers
Saurashtra Cements
Deccan Cements
Star Ferro
Sanghi IndustriesSagar Cements
Mangalam Cements
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600
EV/TTM EBITDA
EBITDA/Ton
Source: Ventura Research
Peer comparison on financial parameters
In Rs CrSales EBITDA PAT
EBITDA
Mgn PAT Mgn EPS
ROE P/E
(x)
EV/Tonne
($)
EV/EBITDA
(x)
Indian Peers
Sagar Cements2015 576 56 297 9.8% 51.5% 43.1 56.9% 6.9 20.3 9.0
2016 753 124 46 16.5% 6.1% 26.5 8.4% 14.7 41.9 8.5
2017E 869 147 50 16.9% 5.8% 28.8 8.5% 24.0 54.1 9.9
2018E 1019 192 80 18.8% 7.8% 45.7 12.3% 15.1 48.6 7.1
Sanghi Industries2015 932.3 157.4 30.6 16.9% 3.3% 1.4 3.2% 40.3 88.4 10.9
2016 776.7 141.0 1.5 18.2% 0.2% 3.2 0.2% 19.2 69.4 13.5
2017E 1198.1 236.0 70.5 19.7% 5.9% 3.2 7.2% 21.4 68.6 8.0
2018E 1309.4 287.0 59.3 21.9% 4.5% 2.7 5.7% 25.4 82.5 7.9
Managlam Cements2015 908.4 77.1 17.9 8.5% 2.0% 8.0 4.2% 39.0 53.3 13.3
2016 833.0 35.0 -20.5 4.2% -2.5% -7.7 -4.3% 0.0 41.4 29.4
2017E 976.0 130.3 51.4 13.4% 5.3% 19.2 9.7% 13.6 45.3 7.7
2018E 1108.6 156.1 74.8 14.1% 6.7% 28.0 12.5% 9.4 45.3 5.8
Star Ferro Cements 2015 1430.0 435.0 83.4 30.4% 5.8% 3.8 12.3% 30.6 215.3 7.4
2016 1712.0 395.0 92.0 23.1% 5.4% 4.2 12.3% 27.8 132.8 8.3
2017E 2115.0 503.9 141.4 23.8% 6.7% 6.4 16.3% 18.1 132.9 6.4
2018E 2586.0 620.5 196.7 24.0% 7.6% 8.9 19.0% 13.0 132.9 5.2
Source: Ventura Research
- 20 of 21- Friday 01st July, 2016
This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.
Financials and Projections
Y/E March, Fig in ` Cr FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E Y/E March, Fig in ` Cr FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E
Profit & Loss Statement Per Share Data (Rs)
Net Sales 753.4 869.4 1019.5 1177.7 Adj. EPS 26.5 28.8 45.7 69.0
% Chg. -19.2 15.4 35.3 35.5 Cash EPS 45.9 53.5 71.0 94.8
Total Expenditure 629.4 722.7 827.4 935.9 DPS 7.5 4.3 11.4 17.2
% Chg. -18.8 14.8 31.5 29.5 Book Value 316.1 339.8 372.1 420.7
EBDITA 124 147 192 242 Capital, Liquidity, Returns Ratio
EBDITA Margin % 16.5 16.9 18.8 20.5 Debt / Equity (x) 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
Other Income 4.1 4.7 5.5 6.4 Current Ratio (x) 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.0
PBDIT 128.1 151.4 197.6 248.1 ROE (%) 8.4 8.5 12.3 16.4
Depreciation 33.7 42.9 44.0 44.8 ROCE (%) 9.7 10.7 15.1 19.4
Interest 41.8 51.6 43.2 36.7 Dividend Yield (%) 1.1 0.6 1.7 2.5
Exceptional items 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Valuation Ratio (x)
PBT 52.7 57.0 110.5 166.6 P/E 14.7 24.0 15.1 10.0
Tax Provisions 6.6 6.8 30.9 46.7 P/BV 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.6
Reported PAT 46.1 50.1 79.5 120.0 EV/Sales 1.4 1.8 1.5 1.2
Minority Interest 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 EV/EBIDTA 8.5 10.7 7.7 5.7
Share of Associate 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Efficiency Ratio (x)
PAT 46.1 50.1 79.5 120.0 Inventory (days) 44 42 40 40
PAT Margin (%) 6.1 5.8 7.8 10.2 Debtors (days) 39 35 35 35
Power/ Sales (%) 29.3 28.5 27.4 26.1 Creditors (days) 64 58 55 55
Balance Sheet Cash Flow Statement
Share Capital 17.4 17.4 17.4 17.4 Profit Before Tax 52.7 57.0 110.5 166.6
Reserves & Surplus 532.2 573.5 629.6 714.2 Depreciation 33.7 42.9 44.0 44.8
Minority Interest Working Capital Changes 127.9 6.2 2.7 5.4
Long Term Borrowings 295.4 295.4 245.4 195.4 Others -58.4 -2.9 15.9 30.8
Deferred Tax Liability 47.4 47.4 47.4 47.0 Operating Cash Flow 155.8 103.1 173.0 247.6
Other Non Current Liabilities 70.1 70.0 70.0 70.0 Capital Expenditure -488.0 -74.8 -31.0 -25.0
Total Liabilities 962 1005 1010 1046 Other Investment Activities 0.0 -2.5 -45.0 -93.0
Gross Block 1139.8 1224.8 1255.8 1280.8 Cash Flow from Investing -488.0 -77.3 -76.0 -118.0
Less: Acc. Depreciation 255.1 297.9 341.9 386.7 Changes in Share Capital 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net Block 884.7 926.9 913.9 894.1 Changes in Borrowings 173.2 0.0 -50.0 -50.0
Capital Work in Progress 15.2 5.0 5.0 5.0 Dividend and Interest 0.0 -15.4 -8.9 -23.4
Other Non Current Assets 95.5 95.4 74.4 74.4 Cash Flow from Financing 173 -15 -59 -73
Net Current Assets -110.0 -105.8 -70.4 -19.5 Net Change in Cash -189.2 10.4 38.2 56.2
Long term Loans & Advances 77.3 86.9 101.9 117.8 Opening Cash Balance 195.8 6.6 17.0 55.1
Total Assets 963 1009 1025 1073 Closing Cash Balance 6.6 17.0 55.1 111.4
- 21 of 21- Friday 01st July, 2016
This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.
Disclosures and Disclaimer Ventura Securities Limited (VSL) is a SEBI registered intermediary offering broking, depository and portfolio management services to clients. VSL is member of BSE, NSE and MCX-SX. VSL is a depository participant of NSDL. VSL states that no disciplinary action whatsoever has been taken by SEBI against it in last five years except administrative warning issued in connection with technical and venial lapses observed while inspection of books of accounts and records. Ventura Commodities Limited, Ventura Guaranty Limited, Ventura Insurance Brokers Limited and Ventura Allied Services Private Limited are associates of VSL. Research Analyst (RA) involved in the preparation of this research report and VSL disclose that neither RA nor VSL nor its associates (i) have any financial interest in the company which is the subject matter of this research report (ii) holds ownership of one percent or more in the securities of subject company (iii) have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this research report (iv) have received any compensation from the subject company in the past twelve months (v) have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company in past twelve months (vi) have received any compensation for investment banking merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company in the past twelve months (vii) have received any compensation for product or services from the subject company in the past twelve months (viii) have received any compensation or other benefits from the subject company or third party in connection with the research report. RA involved in the preparation of this research report discloses that he / she has not served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company. RA involved in the preparation of this research report and VSL discloses that they have not been engaged in the market making activity for the subject company. Our sales people, dealers, traders and other professionals may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies to our clients that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed herein. We may have earlier issued or may issue in future reports on the companies covered herein with recommendations/ information inconsistent or different those made in this report. In reviewing this document, you should be aware that any or all of the foregoing, among other things, may give rise to or potential conflicts of interest. We may rely on information barriers, such as "Chinese Walls" to control the flow of information contained in one or more areas within us, or other areas, units, groups or affiliates of VSL. This report is for information purposes only and this document/material should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, purchase or subscribe to any securities, and neither this document nor anything contained herein shall form the basis of or be relied upon in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. This document does not solicit any action based on the material contained herein. It is for the general information of the clients / prospective clients of VSL. VSL will not treat recipients as clients by virtue of their receiving this report. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of clients / prospective clients. Similarly, this document does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation/circumstances and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this document. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. The appropriateness of a particular investment or strategy will depend on an investor's individual circumstances and objectives. Persons who may receive this document should consider and independently evaluate whether it is suitable for his/ her/their particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional/financial advice. And such person shall be responsible for conducting his/her/their own investigation and analysis of the information contained or referred to in this document and of evaluating the merits and risks involved in the securities forming the subject matter of this document. The projections and forecasts described in this report were based upon a number of estimates and assumptions and are inherently subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies. Projections and forecasts are necessarily speculative in nature, and it can be expected that one or more of the estimates on which the projections and forecasts were based will not materialize or will vary significantly from actual results, and such variances will likely increase over time. All projections and forecasts described in this report have been prepared solely by the authors of this report independently of the Company. These projections and forecasts were not prepared with a view toward compliance with published guidelines or generally accepted accounting principles. No independent accountants have expressed an opinion or any other form of assurance on these projections or forecasts. You should not regard the inclusion of the projections and forecasts described herein as a representation or warranty by VSL, its associates, the authors of this report or any other person that these projections or forecasts or their underlying assumptions will be achieved. For these reasons, you should only consider the projections and forecasts described in this report after carefully evaluating all of the information in this report, including the assumptions underlying such projections and forecasts. The price and value of the investments referred to in this document/material and the income from them may go down as well as up, and investors may realize losses on any investments. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Future returns are not guaranteed and a loss of original capital may occur. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. We do not provide tax advice to our clients, and all investors are strongly advised to consult regarding any potential investment. VSL, the RA involved in the preparation of this research report and its associates accept no liabilities for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report. This report/document has been prepared by VSL, based upon information available to the public and sources, believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty, express or implied is made that it is accurate or complete. VSL has reviewed the report and, in so far as it includes current or historical information, it is believed to be reliable, although its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The opinions expressed in this document/material are subject to change without notice and have no obligation to tell you when opinions or information in this report change. This report or recommendations or information contained herein do/does not constitute or purport to constitute investment advice in publicly accessible media and should not be reproduced, transmitted or published by the recipient. The report is for the use and consumption of the recipient only. This publication may not be distributed to the public used by the public media without the express written consent of VSL. This report or any portion hereof may not be printed, sold or distributed without the written consent of VSL. This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to subscribe for or purchase or deal in any securities and neither this document nor anything contained herein shall form the basis of any contract or commitment whatsoever. This document is strictly confidential and is being furnished to you solely for your information, may not be distributed to the press or other media and may not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. The opinions and projections expressed herein are entirely those of the author and are given as part of the normal research activity of VSL and are given as of this date and are subject to change without notice. Any opinion estimate or projection herein constitutes a view as of the date of this report and there can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such opinions, estimate or projection. This document has not been prepared by or in conjunction with or on behalf of or at the instigation of, or by arrangement with the company or any of its directors or any other person. Information in this document must not be relied upon as having been authorized or approved by the company or its directors or any other person. Any opinions and projections contained herein are entirely those of the authors. None of the company or its directors or any other person accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. The information contained herein is not intended for publication or distribution or circulation in any manner whatsoever and any unauthorized reading, dissemination, distribution or copying of this communication is prohibited unless otherwise expressly authorized. Please ensure that you have read “Risk Disclosure Document for Capital Market and Derivatives Segments” as prescribed by Securities and Exchange Board of India before investing in Securities Market. Ventura Securities Limited
Corporate Office: 8th Floor, ‘B’ Wing, I Think Techno Campus, Pokhran Road no. 02, Off Eastern Express Highway , Thane (West) 400 607.