21
Sagar Cements Ltd. BUY - 1 of 21 - Friday 01 st July, 2016 This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page. STOCK POINTER Target Price 941 CMP 680 FY19E EV/EBITDA 6.1x Index Details Sagar Cements Ltd. (Sagar) is a cement manufacturer with a dominant presence in South India. We believe that the cement industry is on an up-turn and expect Sagar to be a key beneficiary. We are positive on the company given that: i) The cement industry is on the verge of a turn-around: South India (which accounts for ~ 70% of Sagar’s revenues) has witnessed a five year lull in cement demand owing to surplus capacities, subdued demand and political unrest over the creation of a separate state, Telangana. However, with the political resolution of Telangana, limited planned capacity additions in the area and an anticipated pick-up in construction and irrigation projects, cement demand in the South is expected to see a revival going forward. We expect key markets of AP, Karnataka and TN to clock 8% CAGR during FY18-19. ii) Sagar has recently completed the acquisition of BMM cements which has a grinding capacity 1 mtpa for Rs 540 crores. It has also received the approval to acquire a 0.2 mtpa grinding unit of Toshali Industries for Rs 60 crores. Post these acquisitions, the grinding capacity of the company will increase to ~4.3 mtpa from 2.75 mtpa. Inorganic growth at the start of the potential cement up-cycle will help the company fully capitalize on the demand potential. Accordingly, we expect revenues to grow at a 3 year CAGR of 16% to Rs 1178 crore by FY19. iii) Freight cost as a % of total revenues is expected to decline from 16% in FY16 to ~13% in FY19 owing to: a) BMM Cements is strategically located such that it can service the Southern markets, while Sagar’s standalone plant can focus on supplies to Maharashtra and Orissa. This arrangement has the potential to reduce the lead distance by ~20% and b) Commencement of the railway siding unit is expected to help the company save ~ Rs 12 crore annually. Sensex 27,144 Nifty 8,328 BSE 100 8,486 Industry Cement Scrip Details Mkt Cap (cr) 1,184 BVPS () 316.1 O/s Shares (Cr) 1.7 Av Vol (Lacs) 0.2 52 Week H/L 719/305 Div Yield (%) 0.4 FVPS () 10.0 Shareholding Pattern Shareholders % Promoters 56.93 Public 43.07 Total 100.0 Sagar vs. Sensex 40 140 240 340 440 540 640 740 15000 17000 19000 21000 23000 25000 27000 29000 31000 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Sensex Sagar (RHS) Key Financials (₹ in Cr) Y/E Mar Net Sales EBITDA Adj PAT EPS (Rs) EPS Growth (%) RONW (%) ROCE (%) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) 2016 753 124 46 26.5 -38.5 8.4 9.7 14.7 8.5 2017E 869 147 50 28.8 8.7 8.5 10.7 24.0 10.7 2018E 1,019 192 80 45.7 58.7 12.3 15.1 15.1 7.8 2019E 1,178 230 111 64.1 40.2 15.4 18.4 10.8 6.1

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Page 1: Sagar Cements Ltd. - Moneycontrol.com

Sagar Cements Ltd.

BUY

- 1 of 21 - Friday 01st July, 2016

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

ST

OC

K P

OIN

TE

R

Target Price ₹941 CMP ₹680 FY19E EV/EBITDA 6.1x

Index Details Sagar Cements Ltd. (Sagar) is a cement manufacturer with a

dominant presence in South India. We believe that the cement

industry is on an up-turn and expect Sagar to be a key beneficiary.

We are positive on the company given that:

i) The cement industry is on the verge of a turn-around: South India

(which accounts for ~ 70% of Sagar’s revenues) has witnessed a five

year lull in cement demand owing to surplus capacities, subdued

demand and political unrest over the creation of a separate state,

Telangana. However, with the political resolution of Telangana,

limited planned capacity additions in the area and an anticipated

pick-up in construction and irrigation projects, cement demand in

the South is expected to see a revival going forward. We expect key

markets of AP, Karnataka and TN to clock 8% CAGR during FY18-19.

ii) Sagar has recently completed the acquisition of BMM cements

which has a grinding capacity 1 mtpa for Rs 540 crores. It has also

received the approval to acquire a 0.2 mtpa grinding unit of Toshali

Industries for Rs 60 crores. Post these acquisitions, the grinding

capacity of the company will increase to ~4.3 mtpa from 2.75 mtpa.

Inorganic growth at the start of the potential cement up-cycle will

help the company fully capitalize on the demand potential.

Accordingly, we expect revenues to grow at a 3 year CAGR of 16% to

Rs 1178 crore by FY19.

iii) Freight cost as a % of total revenues is expected to decline from

16% in FY16 to ~13% in FY19 owing to: a) BMM Cements is

strategically located such that it can service the Southern markets,

while Sagar’s standalone plant can focus on supplies to Maharashtra

and Orissa. This arrangement has the potential to reduce the lead

distance by ~20% and b) Commencement of the railway siding unit is

expected to help the company save ~ Rs 12 crore annually.

Sensex 27,144

Nifty 8,328

BSE 100 8,486

Industry Cement

Scrip Details

Mkt Cap (₹cr) 1,184

BVPS (₹) 316.1

O/s Shares (Cr) 1.7

Av Vol (Lacs) 0.2

52 Week H/L 719/305

Div Yield (%) 0.4

FVPS (₹) 10.0

Shareholding Pattern

Shareholders %

Promoters 56.93

Public 43.07

Total 100.0

Sagar vs. Sensex

40

140

240

340

440

540

640

740

15000

17000

19000

21000

23000

25000

27000

29000

31000

May-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-15

Au

g-1

5

Sep

-15

Oct-

15

No

v-1

5

Dec-1

5

Jan

-16

Feb

-16

Mar-1

6

Ap

r-16

May-1

6

Ju

n-1

6

Sensex Sagar (RHS)

Key Financials (₹ in Cr)

Y/E Mar Net

Sales EBITDA

Adj PAT

EPS (Rs)

EPS Growth (%)

RONW (%)

ROCE (%)

P/E (x)

EV/EBITDA (x)

2016 753 124 46 26.5 -38.5 8.4 9.7 14.7 8.5

2017E 869 147 50 28.8 8.7 8.5 10.7 24.0 10.7

2018E 1,019 192 80 45.7 58.7 12.3 15.1 15.1 7.8

2019E 1,178 230 111 64.1 40.2 15.4 18.4 10.8 6.1

Page 2: Sagar Cements Ltd. - Moneycontrol.com

- 2 of 21- Friday 01st July, 2016

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

ii) Power cost is expected to decline given that: a) BMM has a 25 MW

captive power plant with a surplus of 15 MW which is sold to AP Genco

b) Coal prices are declining due to increasing emphasis on cleaner

fuels.

iii) With the uptick in demand coupled with lower freight and power

costs, we expect Sagar’s EBITDA margin to expand from 16.5% in FY16

to 19.5% by FY19.

We initiate coverage on Sagar as a BUY with a Price Objective of ₹941,

representing a potential upside of 38% over a period of 18 months. We

have arrived at our target price by assigning an EV/EBITDA multiple of

8x to FY19E EBITDA of Rs 230 crores.

Page 3: Sagar Cements Ltd. - Moneycontrol.com

- 3 of 21- Friday 01st July, 2016

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Company Background

Incorporated in 1981, Sagar Cements is a south based cement manufacturer with a

cement capacity of 3 mtpa and a clinker capacity of ~ 2.3 mtpa. It earns ~70% of its

revenues from sales to south India. The company primarily manufacturers the OPC

variety of cement from its plant situated in the Nalgonda district of Telanga and has

a dealership strength of ~1600.

In FY15, it acquired BMM Cements for Rs 540 crores which has a cement capacity

of 1 mtpa and a clinker capacity of 0.7 mtpa. BMM Cements has a 25 MW thermal

captive power plant and a 20 year limestone mining lease. In June 2016, Sagar

received an approval to acquire a 0.2 mtpa grinding unit of Toshali Cements for Rs

60 crores. It further plans to increase the capacity of this unit to 0.3 mtpa at a cost of

Rs 6 crore post acquisitions. Post both these acquisitions, Sagar Cement’s

consolidated capacity will increase ~4.3 mtpa from 2.75 mtpa in FY16.

Sagar Cements– Snapshot

Sagar Cements (Standalone)

FY16 Revenues: Rs 622 crores

Cement:3.0 mtpa

Clinker: 2.3 mtpa

Capacity

Utilization:55%

Capacity Geography Mix Channel Mix Freight Mix

AP & T: 42%

Karnataka:10.5%

TN: 16.8%

Maharashtra: 19%

Orrisa: 9%

Trade: 75%

Non-Trade: 25%

Road: 100%

Source: Sagar Cements, Ventura Research

Page 4: Sagar Cements Ltd. - Moneycontrol.com

- 4 of 21- Friday 01st July, 2016

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Key Investment Highlights

Well poised to capture demand revival in the South

Sagar Cements, with a grinding capacity of 4 mn tones (including 1 mn tones post

acquisition of BMM industries) is a dominant player in south India with presence

across all five key states – AP, Telangana, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Karnataka. In

addition, it has also expanded its geographic wings to Maharashtra and Orrisa.

However, it continues to earn nearly~70% of its revenues from the south.

South India has witnessed a five year lull in cement demand owing to surplus

capacities, subdued demand and political unrest over the creation of a separate

state, Telangana. However, with the political resolution of Telangana, limited

planned capacity additions in the area and an anticipated pick-up in construction and

irrigation projects, cement demand in the south is expected to revive going forward.

Diversifying geographic base, but South continues to dominate

70.8%

53.7% 51.0% 54.0%

38.8% 41.7%

7.0%

13.9%14.0% 11.0%

15.1% 10.5%

5.3%

11.8% 13.3% 10.0%

16.1% 16.8%

9.3%11.8% 13.5% 16.0%

20.0% 19.0%

4.1% 3.8% 3.9% 6.0% 7.1% 8.7%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16

AP & T Karnataka TN Maharashtra Orrisa Others

Source: Sagar Cements, Ventura Research

Page 5: Sagar Cements Ltd. - Moneycontrol.com

- 5 of 21- Friday 01st July, 2016

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Our industry interactions suggest that while there has been an increase in project

clearances, on-the ground construction activity is yet to pick-up. Barring roads,

which has seen a significant improvement in pace of execution, other infrastructure

projects are yet to take-off. Accordingly, we believe that a real-uptick in cement off-

take will happen from FY18 onwards, when construction of most projects is likely to

be in full swing. Accordingly, we expect cement demand to grow at 6.7% in FY17;

this is primarily attributable to the low base (-1.3% in FY16). We expect an 8%

CAGR from FY18 onwards.

Diversification to faster growing areas a plus

The management has strategically reduced its exposure to Andhra Pradesh from

~71% of total revenues in FY11 to ~40% in FY16. It has expanded its presence in

the Tamil Nadu and Kerala markets which are relatively faster growing, coupled with

an enhanced presence in Maharashtra and Orissa, which are historically lucrative

markets owing to favorable demand-supply dynamics. This strategic shift has

enabled the company to report a 5% revenue CAGR during FY11-16 (standalone)

despite the fact that AP has de-grown at a CAGR of 6% during the same period.

South Industry: Demand likely to revive after a subdued period of 5 years, utilizations to cross 60%

50%

52%

54%

56%

58%

60%

62%

64%

66%

68%

70%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E

in m n tonnes

Capacity Dem and Utilization (RHS)

Source: Ventura Research

FY11-FY15: Capacity CAGR: 6.1% Demand CAGR: 0.9% Average utilization level: 59.3%

FY16-FY18 Estimated: Capacity CAGR: 1.6% Demand CAGR: 7.9% Average utilization level: 63%

Page 6: Sagar Cements Ltd. - Moneycontrol.com

- 6 of 21- Friday 01st July, 2016

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Major infra activity lined up in key markets

Source: Ventura Research

Re-alignment of markets augurs well for future prospects

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

AP & T Karnataka TN Maharashtra Orrisa

in mn tonnes

FY11 FY16

Only market to de-grow

Source: Sagar Cements, Ventura Research

Page 7: Sagar Cements Ltd. - Moneycontrol.com

- 7 of 21- Friday 01st July, 2016

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Sagar’s plant in Nalgonda, Telangana is within 100 kms of Amravati, the proposed

state capital of Andhra Pradesh. Amravati is expected to witness construction

activities towards enhancement of road and housing infrastructure. With close

proximity to the city, Sagar Cements is expected to emerge as the biggest

beneficiary of the development of the new state capital.

Acquisition of BMM results in multiple synergies

In June 2008, Sagar invested Rs 86 crores in a JV with Vicat SA, France in order to

set up a 5.5 mtpa cement plant in Karnataka. In September 2014, Sagar sold its

entire 47% stake in the JV for Rs 435 crores, thus multiplying its investment by more

than 5x. In August 2015, Sagar completed its acquisition of BMM Cements for Rs

570 crores, funded primarily from the profits booked through the JV.

About BMM:

Capacity: 1 mn ton

Location: Karnataka- Andhra Pradesh Border

Capacity Utilization: 45% in FY16

Power: 25 MW Captive Power Plant

Limestone: 20 years mining lease granted in 2016

South markets to recover from de-growth Orrisa and Maharashtra to maintain growth pace

Error! Not a valid

link.

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16e FY17e FY18e FY19e

AP & T Karnataka TN

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16e FY17e FY18e FY19e

Maharashtra Orrisa

Source: Sagar Cements, Ventura Research

Source: Sagar Cements, Ventura Research

Page 8: Sagar Cements Ltd. - Moneycontrol.com

- 8 of 21- Friday 01st July, 2016

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Acquisition of BMM provides multiple synergies for Sagar, as enumerated below:

i) Reduction in freight cost:

BMM, located at the AP-Karnataka border, is well positioned to service the southern

markets of Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and AP, while Sagar’s plant in Nalagoda, can

focus on supplies to Maharashtra and Orissa. This arrangement has the potential to

bring down Sagar’s lead distance from 650-700 kms to 500-550 kms, a reduction of

nearly 20%. Sagar’s freight cost which ranges between Rs 650-700 per tone, is

expected to come down to Rs 550-600 per tone by FY18-19 owing to the anticipated

benefits of reduced lead distance post acquisition of BMM.

BMM – Key Financials

in Rs crs FY14 FY15

Volumes ( in mn tonnes) 0.348 0.158

Realisations (Rs/Tonne) 4110.0 4321.0

Revenues 149.5 115.5

EBITDA -9.7 6.0

PAT -65.7 -23.4

Fixed Asset 396.2 439.9

Source: Ventura Research

Pre-acquisition distribution model – High lead distance as far off markets services

Sagar Cements,

Mattampally

Source: Sagar Cements, Ventura Research

Page 9: Sagar Cements Ltd. - Moneycontrol.com

- 9 of 21- Friday 01st July, 2016

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Commencement of captive railway siding to further reduce freight cost:

Sagar has completed the construction of its captive railway siding, at a cost of Rs

123 crores. Currently, 100% of its cement dispatches are via road in the absence of

railway connectivity to its plant. Hence, the railway siding was constructed with the

aim of reducing freight cost, enhancing its presence in far away markets at

competitive rates. The management has indicated that the trial run of the unit has

begun. However, the railway minister is yet to re-classify the freight cost of the

railway siding to industrial rates, as a result of which the company has not yet

derived significant cost savings. The rates are expected to be revised in FY17, post

which, the company is expected to derive savings of ~Rs 12 crores annually,

translating to 150-200 bps expansion in operating margin.

ii) Reduction in power cost:

Unlike Sagar, BMM has a 25 MW captive coal based power plant. With captive

requirements of only 10 MW, BMM has a PPA to sell 15 MW to AP Genco @ Rs

5.4/unit. Sagar is evaluating the options of continuing its contract with AP Genco

Post BMM acquisition– Same markets can now be serviced through a shorter lead distance

Sagar Cements,

Mattampally

BMM, Gudipadu

Source: Sagar Cements, Ventura Research

Page 10: Sagar Cements Ltd. - Moneycontrol.com

- 10 of 21- Friday 01st July, 2016

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

versus increasing captive consumption. Either way, the company stands to benefit

either through sale of power which compensates for higher cost power purchased or

through the consumption of low cost electricity – as captive power consumption will

cost ~Rs 4/unit as compared to Rs 6.3/unit in case of purchased electricity.

Accordingly, Sagar’s power and fuel cost which stands at ~Rs 1250-1300 per tone is

expected to reduce to ~ Rs 1100 per ton.

Sagar’s power cost per tone reduced from Rs 1220 per tone in FY15 to Rs 1120 per

tone in FY16 owing to:

i) Captive consumption in BMM’s plant, and

ii) Fall in coal prices.

Sagar has a PPA with Singareni coal field for the supply of coal. However, Sagar’s

consumption is skewed towards international coal – domestic: international coal mix

stood at 25:75. According to the management, the quality of the international coal

grade variety is far superior, thereby increasing the price competitiveness of the

same when adjusted on gross calorific value basis. Coal prices have nearly havled

from ~$130/tone to $60/tone from May 2011 to May 2016 as the emphasis, globally,

has shifted to cleaner fuels.

Also, thanks to technology initiatives, the electricity consumption per unit of

production has been on a declining trend adding to the savings in power and fuel

costs.

Coal prices are expected to remain subdued

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

May

-11

Jul-

11

Sep

-11

No

v-11

Jan

-12

Mar

-12

May

-12

Jul-

12

Sep

-12

No

v-12

Jan

-13

Mar

-13

May

-13

Jul-

13

Sep

-13

No

v-13

Jan

-14

Mar

-14

May

-14

Jul-

14

Sep

-14

No

v-14

Jan

-15

Mar

-15

May

-15

Jul-

15

Sep

-15

No

v-15

Jan

-16

Mar

-16

May

-16

in $/Ton

Australian Coal Price

Source: Ventura Research

Page 11: Sagar Cements Ltd. - Moneycontrol.com

- 11 of 21- Friday 01st July, 2016

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

iii) Reduce tax liability:

BMM reported a net loss of Rs 57 crores and Rs 65 crores in FY13 and FY14

respectively. Sagar can use these accumulated losses to lower its tax liability. In

FY16, Sagar’s tax rate stood at 12% and is expected to remain at 12% in FY17,

before increasing to 28% in FY18-19.

Limestone reserves adequate to support any expansions

Around 1.4 tonnes of limestone is required to manufacture 1 tonne of cement. South

India has abundant limestone reserves, which is also the reason for surplus cement

capacities in that region.

Sagar’s limestone mine is within 4 kms of its plant. The mine has reserves of more

than 1000 mt, which can serve Sagar’s requirements for 100+ years. BMM, too, has

received a 20 year mining lease in 2016, with reserves of 155 mt.

Prior to the grant of the mining lease, the company had to purchase limestone

externally thereby incurring high expenditure. Hence, BMM operated at only 16%

utilization levels in FY15. Even so, Sagar’s (consolidated) raw material expenses

shot up from Rs ~400 per tone to Rs 680 per tone in FY16. As the mining lease is

now obtained for BMM, we expect raw material costs to reduce to Rs 450 per tone

by FY19.

Declining electricity consumption per unit… …power cost per tone also declining

Error! Not a valid link.

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

98

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15

in KWH

Electrcity consumption per unit of production

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16

in Rs per tonne

Power Cost per tonne

Source: Sagar Cements, Ventura Research

Source: Sagar Cements, Ventura Research

Page 12: Sagar Cements Ltd. - Moneycontrol.com

- 12 of 21- Friday 01st July, 2016

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Well-thought out expansion strategy

We derived great comfort from our interaction with the management. With a hands-

on management approach to the situation on the ground, they have adopted a

strategy to double their capacity every 12 years, timing it with the next up-cycle in

the cement industry. The cement industry, is inherently, cyclical in nature, with

demand growth of ~6% indicting a down-cycle and a demand growth of ~10%,

indicating an up-cycle.

Sagar completed the acquisition of BMM in 2015, at the start of the potential next

up-cycle in the cement sector. This strategy ensures that the company expands and

consolidates its capacity during a down-cycle and maximizes the demand potential

in an up-cycle, thereby ensuring that equity investors are awarded with high RoEs.

Key Risks:

Lower than anticipated rainfall: While the Met department has forecast

above normal monsoons for this year, any deviation will hurt the rural

economy to a great extent. This will adversely impact all underlying sectors,

including cement.

Increase in coal prices: Sagar is entirely dependent on coal for its fuel

requirements. Any increase in coal prices will put pressure on the operating

margins.

Cement cycles since 1990

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

FY

90

FY

91

FY

92

FY

93

FY

94

FY

95

FY

96

FY

97

FY

98

FY

99

FY

00

FY

01

FY

02

FY

03

FY

04

FY

05

FY

06

FY

07

FY

08

FY

09

FY

10

FY

11

FY

12

FY

13

FY

14

FY

15

in mn tonnes

~6% CAGR

~10% CAGR

~6% CAGR

~10% CAGR

~6% CAGR

Source: Sagar Cements, Ventura Research

Page 13: Sagar Cements Ltd. - Moneycontrol.com

- 13 of 21- Friday 01st July, 2016

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Financial Performance

In Q4FY16, Sagar reported revenue de-growth of 15% YoY owing to 5% decline in

volumes and 8% decline in realizations. The decline in volume and pricing was on

account of subdued demand conditions. Q4FY16 volumes stood at 0.46 mn tones,

while net realization stood at Rs 4670 per tone. EBITDA margin contracted 600 bps

to 16.8% in Q4FY16 owing to lower realizations, higher employee and operating

costs. The company reported a PAT of Rs 15.2 crores, down 30% YoY owing to

contraction in operating margin.

Quarterly Financial Performance (₹ in crore)

Particulars Q4FY16 Q4FY15 FY15 FY16

Net Sales 153.4 181.3 575.6 753.4

Growth % -15.4 30.9%

Total Expenditure 127.6 139.8 519.2 629.4

EBIDTA 25.8 41.5 56.4 124.0

EBDITA Margin % 16.8 22.9 9.8 16.5

Depreciation 7.5 5.9 21.5 33.7

EBIT (EX OI) 18.3 35.6 34.9 90.4

Other Income 7.93 5.30 366.3 4.1

EBIT 26.2 40.9 401.2 94.5

Margin % 17.1 22.5 69.7 12.5

Interest 8.6 4.9 23.1 41.8

Exceptional items 0.00 0 0.0 0.0

PBT 17.6 36.0 378.1 52.7

Margin % 11.4 19.9 65.7 7.0

Provision for Tax 2.4 14.3 81.4 6.6

PAT 15.2 21.7 296.7 46.1

PAT Margin (%) 9.9 12.0 51.5 6.1

Source: Sagar Cements, Ventura Research

Page 14: Sagar Cements Ltd. - Moneycontrol.com

- 14 of 21- Friday 01st July, 2016

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Financial Outlook

Revenues expected to grow at a CAGR of 16%

We expect Sagar’s revenues to grow at a 3 year CAGR of 16% to Rs 1178 crore in

FY19E on the back of a ~12% CAGR in volumes. We expect sales volume to touch

2.8 mn tones and net realization to clock at Rs 4250 per ton by FY19. The steady

volume growth will be driven by:

i) Pick-up in construction activity in the South

ii) Ramp up of production from BMM Cements and

iii) Incremental sales volumes from the recently acquired Toshali cements.

For a long period, the utilization of players in the South remained at sub 50% levels

owing to political disputes. However, with the resolution of the dispute and

anticipated pick-up in key markets, led by creation of a new capital state Amravati (

within 100 kms from Sagar’s plant) , we expect Sagar’s utilization level to increase to

~64% by FY19 from 52% in FY16.

Utilizations to gradually improve… Volumes and realizations to pick up

Error! Not a valid

link.

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E

in mtpa

Capacity Capacity Utilisation (RHS)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E

in Rs per tonnein mtpa

Volumes Net Realisation per tonne

Source: Ventura Research

Source: Ventura Research

Page 15: Sagar Cements Ltd. - Moneycontrol.com

- 15 of 21- Friday 01st July, 2016

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Cement prices in Chennai and Bengaluru relatively firm

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jan

-15

Feb

-15

Mar-

15

Ap

r-15

May-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-15

Au

g-1

5

Sep

-15

Oct-

15

No

v-1

5

Dec-1

5

Jan

-16

Feb

-16

Mar-

16

Ap

r-16

May-1

6

in Rs per bag

Hyderabad Bengaluru Bidar Bellary

Chennai Sholapur Pune Mumbai

Source: Ventura Research Revenues to grow at a 3 year CAGR of 16%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E

Rs crs

Revenues % Growth (RHS)

Source: Ventura Research

Page 16: Sagar Cements Ltd. - Moneycontrol.com

- 16 of 21- Friday 01st July, 2016

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EBITDA and PAT to grow at a steady pace

EBITDA is expected to grow at a 3 year CAGR of 23% to Rs 230 crore by FY19 on

the back of savings in freight and power costs as the synergies from BMM’s

acquisition starts to kick in. Accordingly EBITDA margin is expected to expand from

~16.5% in FY16 to ~19.5% by FY19. We expect the company to report a PAT of Rs

111 crores and EPS of Rs 64 in FY19.

EBITDA margin set to expand PAT to grow at a robust pace

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

0

50

100

150

200

250

FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E

in Rs crs

EBITDA EBITDA margin (RHS)

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E

in Rs crs

PAT PAT margin (RHS)

Source: Ventura Research

Source: Ventura Research

Debt levels comfortable Return ratios to improve

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-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E

in Rs crs

D/E Interest Coverage (RHS)

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E

RoE RoCE

Source: Ventura Research

Source: Ventura Research

Page 17: Sagar Cements Ltd. - Moneycontrol.com

- 17 of 21- Friday 01st July, 2016

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Valuation

We initiate coverage on Sagar Cements as a BUY with a Price Objective of ₹941,

representing a potential upside of 38% over a period of 18 months. We have arrived

at our target price by assigning an EV/EBITDA multiple of 8x to FY19E EBITDA

estimate of Rs 230 crores. We believe Sagar is a good play in the boom of the

cement cycle given its latest acquisitions to enhance capacities and provide synergy

benefits in the form of lower freight and power costs, imminent pick-up in cement

demand in South and strong balance sheet strength. The assigned valuation implies

a EV/Tonne of $64, which is in-line with similar sized peers.

Sagar’s EV/EBITDA multiple trend

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Au

g-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Oc

t-1

5

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Fe

b-1

6

Ma

r-1

6

EV 7X 8.5X 10X 11.5X 13X

Source: Ventura Research

Page 18: Sagar Cements Ltd. - Moneycontrol.com

- 18 of 21- Friday 01st July, 2016

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Sagar’s Price/Book multiple trend

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Ju

n-1

0

Ju

n-1

1

Ju

n-1

2

Ju

n-1

3

Ju

n-1

4

Ju

n-1

5

Ju

n-1

6

CMP 1X 1.2X 1.4X 1.6X 1.8X

Source: Ventura Research

Peer comparison on operational parameters Company Capacity FY16

in mn tonnes FY15 FY16 FY15 FY16 FY15 FY16 FY15 FY16 FY15 FY16

Sagar Cements 3.8 46% 52% 395 684 633 616 1,226 1,126 329 634

Sanghi Industries 4.1 82% 83% 217 291 1125 1190 1040 892 664 783

Mangalam Cements 3.3 71% 71% 807 970 1092 1068 1100 790 328 149

Deccan Cements 2.3 48% 58% 325 376 871 952 1248 1123 606 870

Saurashtra Cements 2.4 62% NA 256 NA 530 NA 1045 NA 599 NA

Star Ferro & Cement 3.7 68% 71.1% 1052 1314 1118 NA 793 NA 1880 1448

Capcity Utilisation RM per tonne Freight cost per tonne Power & Fuel cost per tonne EBITDA per tonne

Source: Ventura Research

Page 19: Sagar Cements Ltd. - Moneycontrol.com

- 19 of 21- Friday 01st July, 2016

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Sagar reasonably priced compared to peers

Saurashtra Cements

Deccan Cements

Star Ferro

Sanghi IndustriesSagar Cements

Mangalam Cements

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600

EV/TTM EBITDA

EBITDA/Ton

Source: Ventura Research

Peer comparison on financial parameters

In Rs CrSales EBITDA PAT

EBITDA

Mgn PAT Mgn EPS

ROE P/E

(x)

EV/Tonne

($)

EV/EBITDA

(x)

Indian Peers

Sagar Cements2015 576 56 297 9.8% 51.5% 43.1 56.9% 6.9 20.3 9.0

2016 753 124 46 16.5% 6.1% 26.5 8.4% 14.7 41.9 8.5

2017E 869 147 50 16.9% 5.8% 28.8 8.5% 24.0 54.1 9.9

2018E 1019 192 80 18.8% 7.8% 45.7 12.3% 15.1 48.6 7.1

Sanghi Industries2015 932.3 157.4 30.6 16.9% 3.3% 1.4 3.2% 40.3 88.4 10.9

2016 776.7 141.0 1.5 18.2% 0.2% 3.2 0.2% 19.2 69.4 13.5

2017E 1198.1 236.0 70.5 19.7% 5.9% 3.2 7.2% 21.4 68.6 8.0

2018E 1309.4 287.0 59.3 21.9% 4.5% 2.7 5.7% 25.4 82.5 7.9

Managlam Cements2015 908.4 77.1 17.9 8.5% 2.0% 8.0 4.2% 39.0 53.3 13.3

2016 833.0 35.0 -20.5 4.2% -2.5% -7.7 -4.3% 0.0 41.4 29.4

2017E 976.0 130.3 51.4 13.4% 5.3% 19.2 9.7% 13.6 45.3 7.7

2018E 1108.6 156.1 74.8 14.1% 6.7% 28.0 12.5% 9.4 45.3 5.8

Star Ferro Cements 2015 1430.0 435.0 83.4 30.4% 5.8% 3.8 12.3% 30.6 215.3 7.4

2016 1712.0 395.0 92.0 23.1% 5.4% 4.2 12.3% 27.8 132.8 8.3

2017E 2115.0 503.9 141.4 23.8% 6.7% 6.4 16.3% 18.1 132.9 6.4

2018E 2586.0 620.5 196.7 24.0% 7.6% 8.9 19.0% 13.0 132.9 5.2

Source: Ventura Research

Page 20: Sagar Cements Ltd. - Moneycontrol.com

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Financials and Projections

Y/E March, Fig in ` Cr FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E Y/E March, Fig in ` Cr FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E

Profit & Loss Statement Per Share Data (Rs)

Net Sales 753.4 869.4 1019.5 1177.7 Adj. EPS 26.5 28.8 45.7 69.0

% Chg. -19.2 15.4 35.3 35.5 Cash EPS 45.9 53.5 71.0 94.8

Total Expenditure 629.4 722.7 827.4 935.9 DPS 7.5 4.3 11.4 17.2

% Chg. -18.8 14.8 31.5 29.5 Book Value 316.1 339.8 372.1 420.7

EBDITA 124 147 192 242 Capital, Liquidity, Returns Ratio

EBDITA Margin % 16.5 16.9 18.8 20.5 Debt / Equity (x) 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7

Other Income 4.1 4.7 5.5 6.4 Current Ratio (x) 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.0

PBDIT 128.1 151.4 197.6 248.1 ROE (%) 8.4 8.5 12.3 16.4

Depreciation 33.7 42.9 44.0 44.8 ROCE (%) 9.7 10.7 15.1 19.4

Interest 41.8 51.6 43.2 36.7 Dividend Yield (%) 1.1 0.6 1.7 2.5

Exceptional items 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Valuation Ratio (x)

PBT 52.7 57.0 110.5 166.6 P/E 14.7 24.0 15.1 10.0

Tax Provisions 6.6 6.8 30.9 46.7 P/BV 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.6

Reported PAT 46.1 50.1 79.5 120.0 EV/Sales 1.4 1.8 1.5 1.2

Minority Interest 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 EV/EBIDTA 8.5 10.7 7.7 5.7

Share of Associate 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Efficiency Ratio (x)

PAT 46.1 50.1 79.5 120.0 Inventory (days) 44 42 40 40

PAT Margin (%) 6.1 5.8 7.8 10.2 Debtors (days) 39 35 35 35

Power/ Sales (%) 29.3 28.5 27.4 26.1 Creditors (days) 64 58 55 55

Balance Sheet Cash Flow Statement

Share Capital 17.4 17.4 17.4 17.4 Profit Before Tax 52.7 57.0 110.5 166.6

Reserves & Surplus 532.2 573.5 629.6 714.2 Depreciation 33.7 42.9 44.0 44.8

Minority Interest Working Capital Changes 127.9 6.2 2.7 5.4

Long Term Borrowings 295.4 295.4 245.4 195.4 Others -58.4 -2.9 15.9 30.8

Deferred Tax Liability 47.4 47.4 47.4 47.0 Operating Cash Flow 155.8 103.1 173.0 247.6

Other Non Current Liabilities 70.1 70.0 70.0 70.0 Capital Expenditure -488.0 -74.8 -31.0 -25.0

Total Liabilities 962 1005 1010 1046 Other Investment Activities 0.0 -2.5 -45.0 -93.0

Gross Block 1139.8 1224.8 1255.8 1280.8 Cash Flow from Investing -488.0 -77.3 -76.0 -118.0

Less: Acc. Depreciation 255.1 297.9 341.9 386.7 Changes in Share Capital 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Net Block 884.7 926.9 913.9 894.1 Changes in Borrowings 173.2 0.0 -50.0 -50.0

Capital Work in Progress 15.2 5.0 5.0 5.0 Dividend and Interest 0.0 -15.4 -8.9 -23.4

Other Non Current Assets 95.5 95.4 74.4 74.4 Cash Flow from Financing 173 -15 -59 -73

Net Current Assets -110.0 -105.8 -70.4 -19.5 Net Change in Cash -189.2 10.4 38.2 56.2

Long term Loans & Advances 77.3 86.9 101.9 117.8 Opening Cash Balance 195.8 6.6 17.0 55.1

Total Assets 963 1009 1025 1073 Closing Cash Balance 6.6 17.0 55.1 111.4

Page 21: Sagar Cements Ltd. - Moneycontrol.com

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