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S WISS A SIA C APITAL. SAC GLOBAL ENERGY & MINING FUND FUNDAMENTALS CAN’T GET ANY BETTER. Singapore, January 2011. WHAT DRIVES RESOURCES. DEMAND GROWTH Massive government spending creates growth SUPPLY CONSTRAINTSCredit crunch reduces project funding - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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1
SWISS ASIA CAPITAL
SAC GLOBAL ENERGY & MINING
FUNDFUNDAMENTALS
CAN’T GET ANY BETTERSingapore, January 2011
2
WHAT DRIVES RESOURCES- DEMAND GROWTH
Massive government spending creates growth
- SUPPLY CONSTRAINTSCredit crunch reduces project
funding
- MONETISATION = LOSS OF PURCHASING POWER
Currency wars and artificially low interest rates
- VALUATIONSstocks do not value minerals in the ground
- INTERNATIONAL MONEY FLOWSimproving profit
3
Financial Market Consolidation
The Cycle Shift into Resources
Resources
Resources?
FinancialsFinancials
Financials vs Resources Cycles
Resources
4
STRATEGIC INVESTMENTS- up to 10% - CONSTITUTIONAL PRECIOUS
METALSReal physical holding, no supply, premium
expansion
- up to 10% - STRATEGIC MINERALSUranium, Lithium, Rhodium, PGM-
Group, Rare Earth
- up to 10% - UNDERVALUED BASE AND BULK MINES
High grade, strategic location including Port access
- up to 20% - SILVER EXPOSURETrade imbalances; highly leveraged derivatives
market
- up to 50% - JUNIOR MINING MARKETDevelopment companies with growth and
cheap valuations
5
Infrastructure spending continues to support commodity demand
6
Resources stocks remain cheap and supported by the
War Cycle!
7
Structural debt issues will result in debasement of
paper currencies
8
A recipe for disasterMore spending and less
taxes!
9
Buy what China needs
10
CRB has tested previous break out levels and is
moving up again
11
CAPEX collapse in mining industry will restrain future
output
12
What is driving Energy?Cause
EmergingEconomies
Low Oil Pricesin 90’s
OPEC
Geopolitical
Effect
Rising OilConsumption
Cuts inExploration
Govt’s dependon Oil Income
Disruption/ThreatOf Disruption of
Production
Competition forOil Resources
Falling Production/Reserves
Cartel RestrictsSupply
Lower GlobalSpare Capacity
HigherOIL Prices
HigherOIL Prices
HigherOIL Prices
HigherOIL Prices
Possible Ramification
GreenMovement
Limited DrillingAccess and New
RefineriesHigher Barriers to
Entry – More CostlyHigher
OIL Prices
Peak OilTheory Less SupplyDeclining Oil
ProductionHigher
OIL Prices
13
Supply constraints and high replacement costs support
prices
14
Spare capacity and inventories are at historic
low levels
15
Critical Drivers moving GOLD The best environment for 20
years
GOLD Fundamentals & M&A
Falling US Financial Assets
From anInvestment
Point of view
GOLD &REAL Assets
Protect and EnhanceInvestment Returns
Possible RamificationPresent Environment
Geopolitical EnvironmentPortfolio Optimisation
Insurance PolicyInt. Asset Allocation Shifts
16
PURCHASING SEASON WILL DRIVE PRICES INTO MARCH
2011
171717
GOLD production shortfall remains due to a lack of new
discoveries!
18
Silver looks very cheap historically
Risk vs Return looks impressive!
Great opportunities in smaller metals due to supply
constrains!
Contractual defaults ?Rising prices will increase investment demand and deplete the future exchange inventories (LME/Commex)
Crazy Rare Earth: One of many rare earth minerals in demand South Africa controls 80 % of global supply
Low Silver Inventories Low Rhodium Prices
19
20
MINING SHARES BREAK-OUT 80 to 100% returns for the Index
21
Resources stocks are trading at large discounts to underlying
Assets!
B U Y
22
Precious Metals Mining companiesare at bargain valuations
BUY BUY BUY
23
Asian Bargains – NAV valuations at 30% discounted
Gold
Bargain Asian Assets *
24
ACQUISITION IN FULL SWING AS PRICES ARE BELOW
REPLACEMENT VALUES
25
Commodity exposure remains low whilst being the least unimpaired
asset class available
26
Total Global Mining shares exposure as % of total Global
Assets will increase!
27
Cash Bonds
Stocks
AlternativeAssets
Real AssetsProperty
Commodities
TOTAL GLOBAL FINANCE POOL OF 100 TRILLION DOLLARS
OR 150 TRILLION DOLLARS TOTAL WEALTH POOLIS LOOKING FOR CAPITAL PROTECTION
WITH UPSIDE PARTICIPATIONToday’s Asset Allocation Asset Allocation 1970’s
15 % Cash 30 %35 % Bonds 20 %
40 % Equities 10 %10 % Alternatives and Real Return Funds 20 %
ZERO Resources 20 %
28
REAL WEALTH is moving from West to East - SAC is one of the few Management companies covering the
resources sector in Asia!
- Team based stock selection and decision making process- Ideas have to compete on a real return basis for capital- Well established fundamental based research process- Private database covering over 200 companies world-wide with a focus on participating in the liberalisation and opening of the Resource sector in Asia- Proven track record covering Global and Asian Pacific Mandates
Our Dynamic Investment Process enhances Performance and reduces Risk
Database
3rd PartySpecialistResearch
Top-DownInvestmentApproach
CompanyMeetings
FieldTrips
PortfolioModelling
RiskReturnProfile
TechnicalResearch
Fundamental Investment Process
29
Adding alpha: picking companies with high re-rating
potential
The fund accumulates emerging producers, companies with increasing reserves & resources: these Companies are key M&A targets in an environment of declining supply and long lead times from discoveryto production.
30
THE KEY DECISION FOR BUYING RESOURCE STOCKS IN A BULL MARKET REMAIN- buy companies with a high proven reserve base, with positive earnings development and cashflow sustainability- accumulate emerging producers, companies increasing reserve & resources, whilst increasing production numbers - accumulate companies moving from the Junior to Mid Cap status & select M&A candidates- little exposure to large caps and hedge books- increasing African and Asian investment focus, which remain extremely undervalued and undiscovered- in addition, silver investments are favoured as
fundamentals remain exceptional- exposure to alternative energy names
GEM’s Investment Themes
31
THE KEY INVESTMENT FEATURES OF GEM- more nimble in investing in deeply-undervalued
companies- large competitors are either too large to benefit from the trend or have a tight tracking error to benchmark e.g. XAU - flexibility to invest in physical bullion and precious
metal futures to enhance returns and preserve capital- Passive option writing strategy may be employed- Investment Parameters: Equities between 60 to
90%; can hold Physical bullion; Derivative exposure up to 10%
- Holdings: The Fund will normally hold up to 50 holdings with a maximum limit of 10% of NAV in any one equity.
The Investment Approach is to focus on deep value and
growth
32
Mining-oriented + physical bullion: global diversification,
with Asia focus
Numbers as at 29th December 2010
25 % Americas30 % Africa & Europe40 % Asia-Pacific
By Reserves & by Production
Gradual shift as liquidity and listings increase
No exposure to any US Listings
Silver & PGMs24%
Gold59%
Base Metals/Bulks/
Specialty Metals
7%
Energy9%
Cash1%
Physical Bullion /
Commodities8%
North/South America
39%
Cash1%
Asia-Pacific33%
Europe / Africa19%
33
SAC Global Energy & MiningTop 10 Holdings
Company Location of assets % of fundPhysical Bullion 8.00%Newcrest Mining Asia-Pacific 3.30%Kinross Gold Americas / Africa /
Europe 3.20%
Eldorado Gold Corp Asia-Pacific 3.20%First Majestic South America 3.00%Randgold Resources Africa 2.90%Agnico Eagle Mines Americas 2.80%Goldcorp North America 2.80%Silver Wheaton Global / Royalty 2.80%Yamana Gold Americas 2.80%
Total 34.80%As at 29th December 2010
Performance Chart15.05.2002 – 29.12.2010
TrendlineCredit crunch –
Shares trade below cash levels
5-year annualized returns (%)
Annualized returns since fund inception – 15 May 2002 (%)
Commodity CRB Index +0.08 +5.75
MSCI World Equity Index +0.17 +3.11
SAC Global Energy & Mining Fund (net returns) +15.62 +14.85
35
Structure: Cayman registeredAdministrator: PictetCustodian: PictetInvestment Advisor: Swiss Asia Capital (Singapore) Pte. Ltd.Min. Initial Investment: USD 50,000 per nomineeNAV Calculations: Weekly (one price only)Mgmt Fee: 1.50%Distribution Fee: Up to 5%Performance Fee: 15% over 10% high water markBase Currency: USDPricing availability also in GBP, EUR, CHF and AUD.Security number (ISIN): KYG667401049
A word about the Fund
36
The information contained in this document has been compiled from, or has been based on publications, reports and other sources believed by the author to be accurate, sufficient and reliable. While reasonable efforts have been made to ensure the accuracy, sufficiency and reliability of such information, no representation and assurance can be given that all such information is accurate and complete in all material respects and not misleading and all sources of information are reliable. The delivery of this document shall not in any event create any implication or constitute a representation or warranty that the information contained in this document is true and correct and not misleading as at any time subsequent to the date of this document. No disclosure of any such information shall be made by the recipient to any other persons in any circumstances except as otherwise compelled by applicable laws.
If you have any doubt about the contents of this document, you should consult, and obtain independent advice from, your legal, financial and/or other professional advisors.
Important Note