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Russian Grain Export / Future and Bottleneck
Marubeni Corporation
November 12, 2010
1
Status of Russia in World Grain & Oilseeds Market
2
Important status in Wheat, not in Corn nor Soybeans
USA
41%
China
19%
Brazil
7%
EU27
7%
Russia
1%
Others
25%
Corn Production Total:810.3million ton
USA
35%
Brajil
27%
Argentina
21%
China
6%
Russia
0%
Others
11%
Soybean Production Total:259.9million ton
EU27
20%
China
17%
India
12% USA
9%
Russia
9%
Others
33%
Wheat Production Total:682.2million ton
USA
55% Arzentina
16%
Brazil
10%
Ukraine
5%
Russia
1% Others
13%
Corn Exports Total:92.2million ton
USA
44% Brazil
31%
Arzentina
14%
Russia
0%
Others
11%
Soybean Exports Total:92.8million ton
USA
16%
EU27
15%
Canada
13%
Russia
12%
Australia
10%
Others
34%
Wheat Exports Total:135.3million ton
3
Production/Consumption and Stock-to-Use Ratio
Production(L)・Consumption(R)
Stock-to-use ratio
Mil
lion t
on
%(E
nd
ing s
tock
s/C
on
sum
pti
on
)
Main reasons for increase of consumption are China’s explosive food
demand and surging demand for bioethanol supported by U.S. government.
Supply/Demand situation of Grains in the world① ~Stock-to-Use Ratio is gradually decreasing~
4
China imports 55 million tons of soybean a year. China is now a net-importer of corn and, for the future, increased import of wheat is also expected.
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1949
1953
1957
1961
1965
1969
1973
1977
1981
1985
1989
1993
1997
2001
2005
中国の人口の推移(百万人)
農村部人口
都市部人口
都市化率
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
中国の食肉・ミルク消費の推移
(キロ/人)
ミルク
羊肉
牛肉
鶏肉
豚肉
豚肉
ミルク→Urbanizaition rate
Urban population
Rural population
Chinese population(million)
Pork
Milk
Milk
Mutton
Pork
Chicken
Beef
Meat and milk consumption in China(kg/person)
Supply/Demand situation of Grains in the world②
~China’s explosive food consumption~
5
Consumption of corn for ethanol is surging. 116 million tons of corn will
be consumed for ethanol in 2010, which equal to 2.5 times of U.S. corn
export.
About 140 million tons of corn is “needed” to fulfill required volume of
corn use by RFS hereafter.
Global S/D for grains become more and more tight
as grain supply is absorbed for energy use.
Supply/Demand situation of Grains in the world③
~Surging demand for bioethanol ~
6
Global supply and demand for grains become tight year by year due to
China’s explosive food consumption and surging ethanol demand
⇒Increased demand for wheat as an alternative feed grain.
Presence of Russia is increasing in wheat and barley market as
their export share is 13-14% of total world export.
1 EU-27 138.92 China 113.83 India 80.74 Russia 61.75 USA 60.36 Canada 26.57 Pakistan 24.08 Australia 22.59 Ukraine 20.9
10 Kazakhstan 17.0Total 680.0
【Wheat Production】
1 USA 24.12 EU-27 21.03 Canada 18.04 Russia 17.55 Australia 14.56 Ukraine 9.27 Kazakhstan 7.58 Arzentina 4.0
Total 128.9
【Wheat Exports】
1 EU-27 61.5
2 Russia 17.9
3 Ukraine 11.8
4 Canada 9.5
5 Australia 8.3
6 Turkey 6.0
7 USA 4.9
Total 148.8
1 Ukraine 6.0
2 Australia 3.4
3 Russia 2.1
5 Canada 1.4
6 EU-27 1.0
Total 16.0
【Barley Exports】 【Barley Production】
Supply/Demand Situation of grains in the world④ ~Increasing presence of Russia in Wheat and Barley Trade~
7
Russia was one of the largest importer of wheat until the early 1990s, but
changed to a net-exporter since 2001.
Domestic demand has decreased due to depressed livestock industry
caused by surged meat/dairy import along with economic deregulation.
Upward trend of yield and economy has been observed since
2001 and will be expected for the future.
Amount of Grain trade in Russia (million ton) Wheat in Russia(million ton)
Total
Wheat
Barley
Corn
Others
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10
Production
Consumption
Russian grain overview① ~Transition from importer to exporter~
8
Main buyers of Russian wheat are Middle-East and North African
countries such as Egypt, Turkey, Syria and Iran. Wheat and barley are
mostly dispatched from the coast of Black Sea while very limited amount
of grains are exported to Japan and SouthEast Asian countries.
⇒Three major “bottlenecks” in Russian grain export.
Middle-East North African
countries
(15-20 million
tons/year)
Eastern
Asia
(0-0.1
million
tons/year)
Central Asia
(1-2 million
tons/year)
Russian grain overview ②
~Export market of Russian grains ~
Three major “Bottlenecks” in Russian grain export
9
Insufficient siloes/warehouses in grain producing are
Insufficient flow from producing area to export terminals
Insufficient facilities/systems at exporting port
For above three points, Russia is far-away under-
developed compared with USA, the world’s
largest grain exporter.
10
Delivery of grain to exporting port is frequently delayed because of train shortage.
Long-term quality maintenance is impossible because of old country elevator.
Grains are often wasted/disposed because of capacity shortage.
Export from Far East is limited because there is no Elevator to export.
USA Russia
Production 426 million ton 108 million ton
Export quantum 108 million ton 23 million ton
Grain storage capacity about 550 million ton about 80 million ton
Port in PNW
(west)
Port in GULF
(east)
Port in Black
sea and Azov
(west)
Port in Far East
(east)
Elevator export capacity 34 million ton 67 million ton 12 million ton 0 million ton
Logistics from country
elevator to Export port train/barge barge/train train train
Number of days from
country elevator to
Export port
3 ~ 5 days 7 ~ 17 days 4 ~ 14 days 4 ~ 20 days
Comparison between Russia and USA
To increase Russian grain export --
11
Investment in country elevators, logistic network and port
facilities and override the “bottlenecks” .
Improve the quality by Governmental Support and
introduce more strict/reliable Standards.
Assure Free Trade and avoid any kind of Governmental
Intervention in order to be a reliable exporter.