ruseTi da saqarTvelo:

gamosavlis ZiebaSi

qarTveli da rusi eqspertebis mier SemuSavebuli sazogadoebrivi politikis sarekomendacio dokumentebi

2011

proeqti dafinansebulia evrokavSiris mier

პროექტის დირექტორი: კახა გოგოლაშვილი

პროექტის კორდინატორი: ქეთევან ემუხვარი

mTargmneli: რუსუდან მარგიშვილი

teqnikuri redaqtori: არტიომ მელიქ-ნუბაროვი

tiraJi: 250

© saqarTvelos strategiisa da saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis kvlevis fondi

ISBN 978-9941-0-3872-3

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saqarTvelo-ruseTis ekonomikur urTierTobaTa evolucia

postsabWoTa periodSi: ganvlili gza da perspeqtivebi

vladimer papava

ekonomikur mecnierebaTa doqtori, profesori, saqarTvelos strategiisa da saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis

kvlevis fondis ufrosi mecnier-TanamSromeli

reziume

sabWoTa kavSiris daSlis Semdeg ekonomikuri urTierTobebi saqarTvelosa da ruseTs Soris winaaRmdegobrivad viTardeboda. dReisaTvis es urTierTobebi kidev ufro garTulebulia. miuxedavad imisa, rom bolo wlebSi am or qveyanas Soris politikuri urTierToba daZabulia, xolo diplomatiuri urTierToba _ sruliad gawyvetili, maT Soris ekonomikuri urTierTobebi arasodes Sewyvetila. saqarTvelo-ruseTis ekonomikuri urTierTobebis induqciis meTodiT Seswavlis safuZvelze winamdebare naSromSi warmovadgenT am urTierTobebis Tvisobrivi gaumjobesebis ZiriTad perspeqtiul mimarTulebebs. kerZod, ganvixilavT qarTuli produqtebis rusul bazarze dabrunebis sakiTxebs, rogor SeiZleba saqarTvelosgan Tanxmobis miReba msoflio savaWro organizaciaSi ruseTis gawevrianebasTan dakavSirebiT da ra gziT moxdeba moskovis uaryofiTi damokidebulebis daZleva energomatareblebis evropisaken saqarTvelos gavliT transportirebasTan dakavSirebiT. pirveli problemis mosagvareblad iniciativa unda wamovides qarTveli mewarmeebisa da maTi gaerTianebebisgan. rac Seexeba msoflio savaWro organizaciaSi ruseTis gawevrianebasa da amaze saqarTvelos Tanxmobas, es SeuZlebelia am or qveyanas Soris sazRvris afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis monakveTebSi sabaJo urTierTobebis mogvarebis gareSe, raSic uSualo monawileoba unda miiRon saerTaSoriso organizaciebis warmomadgenlebma, maT Soris _ msoflio sabaJo organizaciamac. energomatareblebis saqarTvelos gavliT evropisaken transportirebasTan dakavSirebiT moskovis uaryofiTi damokidebulebis dasaZlevad ki aucilebelia paradigma `alternatiuli milsadenebi~ Seicvalos paradigmiT `urTierTSemavsebeli milsadenebi~, anu `milsadenebis harmonizacia~, rac emyareba im subieqtebs Soris partniorobis meqanizmebs, vinc moipovebs, transportirebas axorcielebs da navTobsa da gazs moixmars. yvela am problemis mogvareba SeiZleba warmatebiT, Tuki gadawyvetilebebis miRebis procesSi aqtiurad CaerTveba yvela dainteresebuli subieqti saerTaSoriso sazogadoebidan.

Sesavali

sabWoTa kavSiris daSlidan oci weli gavida, magram sul ufro did samecniero ineterss iwvevs im postsabWoTa urTierTobebis Seswavla, rac Camoyalibda yofil sabWoTa respublikebs Soris. arc is aris gasakviri, rom yvelaze cxovel interess swored ruseTis, rogorc ssrk samarTalmemkvidris, yofil sabWoTa respublikebTan urTierTobebis kvleva iwvevs.

2008 wlis agvistos ruseT-saqarTvelos omamde55 qarTuli urTierTobebis kvleva ufro spontanuri, vidre sistematiuri xasiaTisa iyo, rac

55 magaliTad, The Guns of August 2008: Russia’s War in Georgia, Svante E. Cornell, S. Frederick Starr, eds. Armonk: M.E. Sharpe, 2009.

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uaryofiTadac aisaxa am urTierTobebze. samwuxarod, naklebadaa Seswavlili postsabWoTa periodis ekonomikuri urTierTobebi am qveynebs Soris56.

omis Semdeg saerTaSoriso organizaciebis iniciativiT sul ufro didi yuradReba eTmoba qarTveli da rusi mecnierebisa da eqspertebis Sexvedrebis organizebasa da maT erTobliv kvleviT saqmianobas. amis Sedegad ukve gamoCnda erToblivi publikaciebic57.

samwuxarod, faqtia, rom ssrk-is daSlis Semdeg saqarTvelosa da ruseTs Soris urTierToba aris cudi. dReisaTvis es damokidebuleba kidev ufro gauaresda. miuxedavad imisa, rom bolo wlebSi am qveynebs Soris politikuri urTierTobebi daZabulia, xolo diplomatiuri ki _ saerTod gawyvetili, ekonomikuri urTierTobebi arasodes SeCerebula.

Cveni kvlevis mizania im saerTos gamonaxva, saidanac SesaZlebeli iqneba qarTul-rusuli ekonomikuri urTierTobis ganviTarebis perspeqtivebis dasaxva.

kvlevis amocanebia: a) saqarTvelosa da ruseTs Soris ekonomikuri urTierTobebis ganviTarebis ZiriTadi tendenciebis Seswavla da b) am urTierTobaTa dRevandeli mdgomareobis Sefaseba da SedarebiT mwvave sakiTxebis gamovlena, romelTa gadawyvetac saWiroa samomavlod.

sakvlevi Temis aqtualuroba imiT ganisazRvreba, rom saqarTvelo-ruseTs Soris oficialur urTierTobaTa faqtobrivi arqonis pirobebSi am qveynebis calkeul subieqtebs Soris ekonomikuri kontaqtebi viTardeba saxelmwifoTaSorisi regulirebis CarCoebs miRma. amis magaliTia saqarTvelodan ruseTSi `eqsportirebuli~ samuSao Zala, xolo rusTidan saqarTveloSi `eqsportirebuli~ pirdapiri investiciebi. garda amisa, es qveynebi, gavrcelebuli mosazrebis Tanaxmad, ganixilebian, rogorc energomatareblebis transportirebis konkurentebi.

viTareba, rodesac qveyanaTa Soris ar arsebobs oficialuri urTierTobebi, xolo ekonomikuri urTierTobebi TviTneburad, TavisTavad viTardeba, qarTul-rusul konteqstSi Seswavlili ar yofila. es Tavis mxriv gansazRvravs am gamokvlevis praqtikul mniSvnelobasac, radgan qarTul-rusuli ekonomikuri urTierTobebis ganviTarebis dargSi rekomendaciebi gamoadgeba am qveynebs Soris saerTo interesebis gamonaxvasa da qveyanaTa Soris arsebuli daZabulobis Senelebas.

winamdebare kvlevaSi gamoviyeneT Tvisobrivi analizis meTodi. saqarTvelo-ruseTis ekonomikuri urTierTobebis Sesaxeb arsebuli faqtobrivi masalis (romelic dagrovda 20 wlis manZilze, ssrk-is daSlis Semdeg) ganvrcoba induqciis meTodis safuZvelzea ganxorcielebuli. aucileblad unda aRiniSnos, rom mTavar SezRudvas warmoadgens is garemoeba, rom xelT ar gvaqvs realuri ekonomikuri viTarebis amsaxveli oficialuri statistikis yvela monacemi, gansakuTrebiT SromiTi migraciis, pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebis da a.S. Sesaxeb. amaze yvela konkretul SemTxvevaSi qvemoT iqneba miTiTebuli.

56 iSviaTi gamonaklisis saxiT ix. statia: Э. М. Иванов. «Экономические отношения России и Грузии». wignSi: Грузия: проблемы и перспективы развития. Том 1. Под ред. Е. М. Кожокина. Москва: Российский институт стратегических исследований, 2001. 57 magaliTad, Россия и Грузия: пути выхода из кризиса. Под ред. Георгия Хуцишвили и Тины Гогелиани. Тбилиси: МЦКП, 2010.

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problemis aRwera

winamdebare kvlevis amocanebidan gamomdinare, postsabWoTa periodis saqarTvelo-ruseTis ekonomikuri urTierTobebi unda daiyos sam etapad: revoluciamdeli (anu saxelmwifo damoukideblobis aRdgenidan 2003 wlis `vardebis revoluciamde~), omamdeli (anu `vardebis revoluciidan~ 2008 wlis agvistos rusul-qarTuli omamde) da omis Semdgomi (2008 wlis agvistos rusul-qarTuli omis Semdeg). revoluciamdeli periodi

sabWoTa kavSiris farglebSi saqarTvelo-ruseTs Soris ekonomikuri urTierTobebi Tavisi xasiaTiT iyo regionTaSorisi urTierTobebi erTiani qveynis saxalxo-meurneobrivi kompleqsis mbrZanebluri ekonomikis sistemaSi. sabWoTa respublikebis teritoriaze ekonomikur subieqtebs Soris ekonomikuri urTierTobebs gansazRvravda qveynis saxalxo meurneobis dagegmvis centraluri organo _ ssrk-is e.w. `gosplani~ (anu saxelmwifo sagegmo komiteti). saqarTvelo misi mcire zomidan gamomdinare, kavkasiis sxva mcire sabWoTa respublikebTan (zerbaijani da somxeTi) erTad, ssrk-is ekonomikuri daraionebis sistemaSi amierkavkasiis ekonomikur raionSi Sedioda58.

sabWoTa kavSiris daSlasTan erTad daiSala mbrZanebluri ekonomikac, ramac ukve postsabWoTa sivrceSi calkeul sawarmoTa Soris arsebuli samrewvelo kavSirebis gawyveta gamoiwvia. saqarTveloSi es tendencia daCqarda. kerZod, postsabWoTa periodis saqarTvelos pirvelma xelmZRvanelobam wina saukunis 90-iani wlebis dasawyisSi gamoacxada ruseTis ekonomikuri blokada da gadaketa sarkinigzo kvanZi qalaq samtrediaSi. amis Sedegad ruseTsa da saqarTvelos Soris arsebuli samrewvelo kavSirebi ufro adre da ufro swrafad gawyda, vidre es moxda sxva postsabWoTa respublikebSi. aman pirvel rigSi saqarTvelos ekonomika daazarala59. es iyo pirveli mcdari ekonomikuri nabiji saqarTvelo-ruseTis urTierTobebSi, romelic ganapiroba saqarTvelos xelisuflebis arasworma moqmedebebma. xazs vusvamT, rom amis Semdegac ruseTi saqarTvelos mTavari savaWro partniori iyo.

darCa ra samaneTo zonaSi, saqarTvelos (sxva sabWoTa respublikebis msgavsad) 1992 wlis Semodgomidan moskovidan sabWoTa samaneTo banknotebis (sabWoTa maneTis nacvlad rusuli maneTi mxolod 1993 wlis zafxulSi SemoiRes) miRebis problema gauCnda60. es iyo ruseTis reaqcia, romelic gamoiwvia sabWoTa kavSiris zogi yofili respublikis (maT Soris saqarTvelos) cenrtaluri bankebidan e.w. `haeris~, anu iseTi fuladi gzavnilebis gadaricxvam, romlebsac ar hqondaT Sesabamisi uzrunvelyofa. aman, Tavis mxriv, saqarTveloSi droebiTi erovnuli valutis _ erovnuli bankis kuponis _ SemoReba daaCqara61.

praqtikulad sabWoTa kavSiris daSlisTanave Seiqmna damoukidebel saxelmwifoTa Tanamegobroba (dsT), sadac gaerTianda yvela yofili sabWoTa respublika, baltiis qveynebis gamoklebiT. saqarTvelo damoukidebel

58 magaliTad, ix.: Закавказский экономический район. Экономико-географический очерк. Под ред. А. А. Адамеску, и Е. Д. Силаева. Москва, «Наука», 1973. 59 В. Папава, и Т. Беридзе. «Проблемы реформирования грузинской экономики». Российский экономический журнал, 1994, № 3. 60 Роман Гоциридзе. «Национальная валюта Грузии – Лари», Центральная Евразия: национальные валюты. Под ред. Э. М. Исмаилова. Стокгольм: CA&CC Press, 2008, 174-175. 61 iqve, 175.

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saxelmwifoTa TanamegobrobaSi Sevida mogvianebiT, 1993 wels, mas Semdeg, rac teritoriuli mTlianobisaTvis brZolaSi saqarTvelo iZulebuli Seiqna daetovebina afxazeTi, rasac mohyva iZulebiT gadaadgilebul pirTa mravalaTasiani talRa. ruseTTan urTierTobis mogvarebis imediT saqarTvelom miiRo damoukidebel saxelmwifoTa TanamegobrobaSi Sesvlis gadawyvetileba, im mizniT, rom moskovis keTilganwyoba moepovebina, romelic yovelTvis edga mxarSi separatistul moZraobas ara marto saqarTveloSi, aramed sabWoTa kavSiris sxva yofil respublikebSic62.

miuxedavad imisa, rom damoukidebel saxelmwifoTa Tanamegobrobis farglebSi miaRwies mraval mniSvnelovan SeTanxmebas, rac xels uwyobda wevri-saxelmwifoebis ekonomikuri kontaqtebis dalagebas, gavrcelebuli azris Tanaxmad, Tanamegobroba Tavidanve Seejaxa sirTuleebs integraciis procesebSi63. amis erT-erT mTavar mizezad miiCneva sabazro safuZvelze integraciis sqemebis SemuSavebisaken swrafva, rac damaxasiaTebelia sawarmoo kooperaciisaTvis da rac niSandoblivi iyo ssrk-is SedarebiT Caketili ekonomikuri sistemisaTvis64.

me-20 saukunis 90-iani wlebis Sua periodSi orive qveyana, saqarTveloc da ruseTic, dakavebuli iyo sakuTari problemebiT _ sabazro ekonomikaze gadasvliT da amdenad, am qveynebs Soris ekonomikuri urTierTobebi am qveynebis konkretuli ekonomikuri subieqtebis ekonomikuri dainteresebis safuZvelze Camoyalibda.

saqarTvelos ekonomikaze Zalian cudi gavlena iqonia ruseTis 1998 wlis savaluto-finansurma krizisma, rac uaryofiTad aisaxa saqarTvelos erovnuli valutis _ laris _ gacvliTi kursisa da mTlianad saqarTvelos ekonomikis stabilurobaze65. amis Sedegad saqarTvelosTan sagareo vaWrobaSi pirveloba ruseTma mxolod TurqeTs dauTmo (isic ara didi xniT). ase gagrZelda 2006 wlamde, iqamde, sanam ruseTma qarTuli Rvinisa da mineraluri wylebisTvis, aseve qarTuli warmoSobis sxvadasxva sasoflo-sameurneo produqtebisTvis ar daketa Tavisi bazari.

revoluciamdeli periodis qarTul-rusul urTierTobebSi gansakuTrebiT sayuradReboa e.w. `nulovani variantis~ xelSekrulebis teqstis saqarTvelos parlamentis mier iZulebiTi ratifikacia, romlis Tanaxmadac, saqarTvelom ruseTis valis saerTaSoriso savaluto fondisa da parizis klubis mier SemoTavazebuli sqemis mixedviT restruqturizaciis sanacvlod uari Tqva yofili sabWoTa kavSiris aqtivebze66. marTalia, parafirebul teqstSi ewera, rom es ar vrceldeba almasis fondsa da yofili ssrk-is `vneSekonombankis~

62 magaliTad, Crossroads and Conflict: Security and Foreign Policy in The Caucasus and Central Asia, Gary K. Bertsch, Cassady Craft, Scott A. Jones, and Michael Beck, eds. New York: Routledge, 2000; Dov Lynch. Engaging Eurasia’s Separatist States.Unresolved Conflicts and De Facto States. Washington, D.C.: United States Institute of Peace Press, 2004. 63 magaliTad, Р. С. Гринберг, Л. З. Зевин, и др. 10 лет Содружества независимых государств: иллюзии, разочарования, надежды. Москва: ИМЭПИ РАН, 2001; Л. П. Козик и П. А. Кохно. СНГ: реалии и перспективы. Москва: Издательский дом «Юридический мир ВК», 2001; В. А. Шульга (рук. авт. колл.). Экономика СНГ: 10 лет реформирования и интеграционного развития. Москва: Финстатинформ, 2001; Н. Н. Шумский. Сотрудничество независимых государств: проблемы и перспективы развития. Минск: «Технопринт», 2001. 64 magaliTad, Martha Brill Olcott, Anders Ǻslund, and Sherman W. Garnett. Getting it Wrong: Regional Cooperation and the Commonwealth of Independent States. Washington, D.C.: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1999. 65 Мераб Какулия. «До и после введения лари: национальная валюта Грузии в ретроспективе», Центральная Евразия: национальные валюты. Под ред. Э. М. Исмаилова. Стокгольм: CA&CC Press, 2008, 196-197. 66 ix.: Нодар Броладзе. «“Нулевой вариант”: за и против». Независимая газета, 2001, 17 января, на сайте http://www.ng.ru/cis/2001-01-17/5_variant.html#.

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angariSebze, magram 1993 wels xelmoweril oficialur dokumentSi aseTi Canaweri ukve aRar iyo, rac qarTulma mxarem mxolod xelmoweris Semdeg SeniSna. saqarTvelos xelisuflebis mravalricxovani protestis miuxedavad, ruseTis mxare xelmoweril teqstSi ramis Secvlas ar apirebda, xolo rodesac saqarTvelos dasWirda ruseTis mimarT sagareo valis restruqturizacia, moskovma am xelSekrulebis im saxiT ratifikacia moiTxova, ra saxiTac iyo xelmowerili. radganac saqarTvelos sagareo valis restruqturizaciis alternatiuli varianti ar arsebobda, saqarTvelos Tavisi erovnuli interesebis sazianod mouwia `nulovani variantis~ xelSekrulebis ratificireba, romelic parafirebuli teqstisagan gansxvavdeboda.

azerbaijanuli naxSirwyalbadis resursebis saqarTvelos gavliT transportirebas yovelTvis ekava mniSvnelovani adgili qarTul-rusul urTierTobebSi. kerZod, ruseTi miiCnevda (da samwuxarod, dRemde miiCnevs), rom am proeqtis realizacia safrTxes uqmnis mis erovnul usafrTxoebas da ewinaaRmdegeba mis interesebs67. amrigad, ruseTi ara marto ar iyo dainteresebuli saqarTvelos gavliT transportirebis derefnis gayvaniT, aramed yvela Zalas xmarobda, rom xeli SeeSala am proeqtebisaTvis68.

omamdeli periodi

jer kidev saqarTvelos 2003 wlis noembris `vardebis revoluciamde~ ruseTSi ukve popularuli iyo `liberaluri imperiis~ Seqmnis idea69, romlis mixedviTac, ruseTs ekonomikuri eqspansiis saSualebiT SeuZlia da unda aRadginos kidec Tavisi ekonomikuri gavlena mTel postsabWoTa sivrceze.70 zogadad, liberaluri imperia, misi avtorebis Canafiqris mixedviT, unda Seiqmnes yofili sabWoTa respublikebis ara Zaladobrivi SeiaraRebuli okupaciis, aramed am teritoriebze arsebuli ZiriTadi ekonomikuri obieqtebis dasakuTrebis (SeZenisa da aqtivebis ganviTarebis) gziT71.

kavkasiaSi pirveli qveyana, romelic ruseTis `liberalur imperiaSi~ CaerTo, iyo somxeTi. jer kidev 2002 wlis bolos daido ruseTsa da somxeTs Soris xelSekruleba `qonebis valze gacvla~72, romlis Tanaxmadac, ruseTma somxeTisagan miiRo sawarmoebi, romelTa saerTo Rirebuleba _ 93 milioni aSS dolari _ sakmarisi aRmoCnda ruseTis mimarT somxeTis valis dasafarad.

67 Alexander Rondeli. “Pipelines and Security Dynamics in the Caucasus.” Insight Turkey, 2002, Vol. 4, No 1. 68 iqve. 69 Анатолий Чубайс. «Миссия России в ХХI веке». Независимая газета, 2003, 1 октября, на сайте http://www.ng.ru/printed/ideas/2003-10-01/1_mission.html aRsaniSnavia, rom Cubaisis idea `liberaluri imperiis~ Sesaxeb gansakuTrebiT 1998-2005 wlebSi iyo popularuli (Thomas W. Simons, Jr. Eurasia’s New Frontiers: Young States, Old Societies, Open Futures. Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 2008, рр. 70-81). imperiis aRdgenis idea ruseTSi yovelTvis (ssrk-is daSlisTanavec ki) iyo aqtualuri (magaliTad, ix.: Karen Dawisha. “Imperialism, Dependence, and Interdependence in the Eurasian Space”. In The Making of Foreign Policy in Russia and The New States of Eurasia. Adeed Dawisha, and Karen Dawisha, eds. Armonk, M. E. Sharpe, 1995). 70 magaliTad, Henry Kissinger. Does America Need a Foreign Policy? Toward a Diplomacy for the Twenty-First Century. London: The Free Press, 2002, 76. 71 Keith Crane, D. J. Peterson, and Olga Oliker. “Russian Investment in the Commonwealth of Independent States”. Eurasian Geography and Economics, 2005, Vol. 46, No. 6. 72ix.: Анна Зейберт. «Баланс интересов Армении и России нуждается в переоценке». Деловой Экспресс, Express.AM, 2006, № 4, 9-15 февраля, на сайте http://www.express.am/4_06/geopolitics.html; Haroutiun Khachatrian. “Russian Moves in Caucasus Energy and Power Sectors could have Geopoliticl Impact”. Eurasia Insight. Eurasianet, 2003, September 25, http://www.eurasianet.org/departments/business/articles/eav092503.shtml.

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mogvianebiT somxeTis ekonomika TiTqmis mTlianad gaxda ruseTis `liberaluri imperiis~ nawili73.

ruseTsa da somxeTs Soris mdebare saqarTvelo da azerbaijani warmoadgens geografiul dabrkolebas somxuri da rusuli ekonomikis erTian ekonomikur sivrced gasaerTianeblad. somxur-azerbaijanuli konfliqtis gamo am gaerTianebisaTvis qarTuli `marSruti~ gacilebiT ufro realisturia, vidre azerbaijanuli. am `liberalur imperiaSi~ saqarTvelos CaTreviT gaadvildeba am imperiuli sqemis azerbaijanze gavrcelebac, radgan misi yvela satransporto komunikaciis arteria, ZiriTadi milsadenebis CaTvliT, saqarTveloze gadis.

saqarTvelos `liberalur imperiaSi~ gaerTianeba jer kidev 2003 wels daiwyo, rodesac `rao ees~-ma iyida amerikuli kompania `aeqs (amerikuli eleqtroqimiuri sazogadoeba) — abreSumis gzis~ (romelic flobda Tbilisis eleqtrogamanawilebel qsels) aqciebi da sxva aqtivebi. amis Sedegad `rao ees~-is kontrols daeqvemdebara qveynis eleqtroqselis 75 procenti74.

`vardebis revoluciis~ Semdeg rusulma kompaniebma da maTma Svilobilma sawarmoebma, romlebic daregistrirebulia mesame qveynebSi, saqarTvelos mTavrobis mier gasayidad gamotanili axali obieqtebis didi nawili privatizaciis sqemebis sakmaod gaumWvirvale viTarebaSi75 SeiZines. aseTi tipuri kompania iyo, magaliTad, rusuli holdingi-kompania `promiSlenie investori~, romelmac xelSi jer oqros sabado Caigdo, Semdeg ki _ oqros zodebis damamzadeebli qarxnis naxevari76.

aqtiurobda gazpromic _ ruseTis saxelmwifos mier kontrolirebadi gazis monopolia, romlis mizania akontrolos ara mxolod saqarTvelos gazis mrewveloba, aramed is erTaderTi gazsadenic, romliTac rusuli gazi saqarTvelosac da somxeTsac miewodeba. saqarTvelos mTavrobasa da gazproms77 Soris mimdinare molaparakebebSi mxolod aSS-is CareviT gaxda SesaZlebeli, rom gazsadeni ar miyides gazproms78.

2005 wels `vneStorgbankma~ privatizebuli gaerTianebuli qarTuli bankis, saqarTveloSi zomiT mesame bankis, sakontrolo paketi SeiZina79. amis Sedegad ruseTis saxelmwifom gaerTianebuli qarTuli bankis nacionalizacia moaxdina.

73 Гаидз Минасян. «Армения, российский форпост на Кавказе?». Russie.Nei.Visions, 2008, No. 27, февраль, сс. 9-10, http://www.ifri.org/files/Russie/ifri_RNV_minassian_Armenie_Russie_RUS_fevr2008.pdf. 74 Tea gulariZe, `Cubaiss TbilisSi xmauriani Sexvedra mouwyves”. Civil Georgia, 2003, 7 agvisto, http://www.civil.ge/geo/article.php?id=4564. 75 Nino Gujaraidze, Merab Barbakadze, Kety Gujaraidze, Rusudan Mchedlishvili, Kakhaber Kakhaberi. Aggressive State Property Privatization Policy on “Georgian-Style Privatization.” Tbilisi: Green Alternative, OSI, 2007,, available at www.greenalt.org/webmill/data/file/publications/Privatizeba-Eng4.pdf; Nino Gujaraidze. Aggressive State Property Privatization Policy on “Georgian-Style Privatization”-2. Tbilisi: Green Alternative, OSI, 2010, available at http://www.greenalt.org/webmill/data/file/publications/privatization_report_GA_2010(1).pdf 76 magaliTad, «Активы Маднеули перешли к российской группе Промышленные инвесторы». Альфа-Металл, 2005, 7 ноября, на сайте http://www.alfametal.ru/?id=news_details&news_id=10505. 77 magaliTad, «Грузия согласна продать магистральный газопровод Газпрому». Лента.Ру, 2005, 28 декабря, http://www.lenta.ru/news/2005/12/28/gas1/. 78 Jeremy D. Gordon. “Russia’s Foreign Policy Ace”. Paterson Review, 2007, Vol. 8, 85-86, http://www.diplomatonline.com/pdf_files/npsia/Paterson%20Review%20Vol%208%202007_BYPRESS2b.pdf 79 magaliTad, «Внешторгбанк (ВТБ) России приобретает контрольный пакет акций коммерческого “Объединенного грузинского банка”». Финам.Ру, 2005, 18 января, http://www.finam.ru/investments/newsma000010201D/default.asp?fl=1

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aucilebelia SevniSnoT, rom 2004 wels saxelmwifos kuTvnilma ruseTis `vneStorgbankma~ somxeTis “armsberbankis” sakontrolo paketi miiRo80.

moxmobili magaliTebi mowmobs, rom `vardebis revoluciamde~ dawyebuli ruseTis aqtiuroba, CaiTrios saqarTvelo `liberalur imperiaSi~, mniSvnelovnad gaizarda revoluciis Semdeg81, rasac saqarTvelos xelisuflebamac Riad Seuwyo xeli82. saqarTvelos (da ara marto) xelisuflebis amgvari qmedebebi imiTac SeiZleba aixsnas, rom msxvili rusuli kompaniebis xelmZRvanel Tanamdebobebze xSir SemTxvevaSi arian saxelmwifo uSiSroebis yofili muSakebi, romlebic ruseTis mTavrobis msgavsad, politikur miznebis misaRwevad mzad arian damatebiTi saxsrebi daxarjon83.

viTvaliswinebT ra im realur nabijebs, rac ruseTma `liberalur imperiaSi~ kavkasiis (pirvel rigSi, somxeTisa da saqarTvelos) CasarTavad gadadga, sruliad usafuZvlod gveCveneba imis mtkiceba, rom saqarTvelo ekonomikuri (da ara mxolod) TvalsazrisiT mTlianad dakargulia ruseTisaTvis84 an rom saqarTvelosa da somxeTs ruseTisaTvis minimaluri ekonomikuri mniSvneloba aqvT85.

2006 wels, saqarTvelos, misi prodasavluri orientaciis gamo, `dasasjelad~, ruseTma moimizeza qarTuli Rvinisa86 da mineraluri wylebis87 uxarisxoba da am produqtebisa da mTlainad qarTuli sasoflo-sameurneo produqtebisaTvis daxura Tavisi bazari. es, marTalia, erTi mxriv, uaryofiTad aisaxa saqarTvelos ekonomikaze88, magram, meore mxriv, iqca stimulad, rom saqarTvelos Tavisi produqciis gasasaReblad axali bazrebi moeZebna89. amis paralelurad ruseTma saqarTvelos blokada gamoucxada da yovelgvari saaviacio, sarkinigzo, sazRvao, saavtomobilo mimosvla da safosto gzavnilebic ki SeaCera90.

moskovis mier qarTuli sasoflo-sameurneo produqciis akrZalva ar vrceldeboda afxazeTze91. ruseTis Semdeg qarTuli Rvinisa da mineraluri

80 magaliTad, «Внешторгбанк приобрел контрольный пакет акций Армсбербанка». Ведомости, 2004, 24 марта, http://www.vedomosti.ru/newsline/news/2004/03/24/16606. 81 Владимир Папава, и Фредерик Старр. «Экономический империализм России». Project Syndicate, 2006, 17 января, на сайте http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/papava1/Russian; Vladimer Papava. “The Political Economy of Georgia’s Rose Revolution”. Orbis. A Journal of World Affairs, 2006, Vol. 50, No. 4, 663-665. 82 Vladimer Papava. “The Essence of Economic Reforms in Post-Revolution Georgia: What about the European Choice?” Georgian International Journal of Science and Technology, 2008, Vol. 1, Iss. 1, 3. 83 Sir Basil Markesinis. The American and Russian Economies in Moments of Crisis: A Geopolitical Study in Parallel. ICBSS Policy Brief No. 19, 2009б November, 23-24, 27, http://icbss.org/images/papers/pb_19_markesinis.pdf. 84 Сергей Лунев. «Центральная Азия и Южный Кавказ как геополитические регионы и их значение для России». Центральная Азия и Кавказ, 2006, № 3 (45), 26. 85 iqve. 86 magaliTad, ix.: Zaal Anjaparidze. “Russia Continues to Press Georgian Wine Industry.” Eurasia Daily Monitor, The Jamestown Foundation, 2006, April 20, available at www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews%5Btt _news%5D=31602; Mamuka Tsereteli. “Banned in Russia: The Politics of Georgian Wine.” Central Asia-Caucasus Institute Analyst, 2006, April 19, http://www.cacianalyst.org/?q=node/3904. 87 Robert Parsons. “Russia/Georgia: Russia Impounds Georgian Mineral Water”. Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty, 2006, April 19, http://www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/2006/04/e3ee1b53-6b14-4553-a05d-4aa389364dd0.html. 88 Eric Livny, Mack Ott, Karine Torosyan. “Impact of Russian Sanctions on the Georgian Economy.” Georgia in Transition. Lorenz King, Giorgi Khubua, eds. Frankfurt am Main: Peter Lang, 2009. 89 Джон Македон. «Российское экономическое давление приводит Грузию к мысли о выходе из СНГ». Eurasianet – Русский, 2006, 10 мая, http://russian.eurasianet.org/departments/business/articles/eav051006ru.shtml. 90«Россия объявила блокаду Грузии». Лента.Ру, 2006, 2 октября, на сайте http://lenta.ru/news/2006/10/02/blockade/. 91 magaliTad, Евгений Арсюхин. «Оранжевое предупреждение. Россия запретила ввоз грузинских фруктов». Российская газета, 2005, 21 декабря, http://www.rg.ru/2005/12/21/mandariny.html.

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wylebis Setana afxazeTmac akrZala92. aqve aRsaniSnavia, rom ruseTma sul sxva gadawyvetileba miiRo afxazur RvinosTan dakavSirebiT93.

dReisaTvis gansakuTrebiT aqtualuria msoflio savaWro organizaciaSi ruseTis gawevrianebis sakiTxi94. saqarTvelo, rogorc am organizaciis wevri-qveyana, imTaviTve Tanaxma iyo am organizaciaSi ruseTis gawevrianebaze, Tuki moskovi miscemda Tbiliss SesaZleblobas, gaexsna sakontrolo-gamSvebi punqtebi saqarTvelo-ruseTis sazRvris afxazeTisa da samxreT-oseTis monakveTebze95. Tbilisis pirobebi emyareba im mosazrebebs, rom or mezobel qveyanas Soris saqonlis sazRvarze gadatan-gadmotana unda xdebodes erovnuli sabaJo kanonmdeblobebiT, rac, samwuxarod, ver xorcieldeba saqarTvelos mxridan, separatistuli mTavrobebis gadawyvetilebebis gamo, rasac moskovi Riad uWers mxars.

energetikuli resursebis transportirebis gamo ruseTsa da saqarTvelos Soris arsebuli dapirispireba SenarCunda `vardebis revoluciis~ Semdegac: ruseTma yvela Zala da saSualeba gamoiyena, rom win aRdgomoda milsadenebTan dakavSirebuli proeqtebis realizebas96. rusi eqspertebic aRiareben, rom ruseTi zog yofil sabWoTa respublikasTan, maT Soris, saqarTvelosa da azerbaijanTan, `energetikul oms~ awarmoebs97. omis Semdgomi periodi

qarTul-rusuli urTierTobebis daZabulobam kulminacias 2008 wlis agvistoSi, rusul-qarTuli omis dros miaRwia. amis Semdeg am or qveyanas Soris Sewyda diplomatiuri urTierTobebi. am omma da ruseTis mier afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis aRiarebam eWvqveS daayena is, Tu ramdenad mizanSewonilia damoukidebel saxelmwifoTa Tanamegobrobis arseboba, romlic mxolod formalurad aRiarebs masSi Semavali qveynebis sazRvrebis daurRvevlobas98. ruseTis agresiis Semdeg, rogorc mosalodnelic iyo, saqarTvelo gamovida damoukidebel saxemwifoTa Tanamegobrobidan99.

92 magaliTad, «Вслед за Россией грузинские вина и минеральные воды запретила Абхазия». News.Ru, 2006, 15 мая, на сайте http://www.newsru.com/finance/15may2006/abhasia.html. 93 magaliTad, Анатолий Гордиенко. «Винно-политический обгон. “Букет Абхазии” вернется на российский рынок раньше “ Хванчкары”». Независимая газета, 2007, 17 октября, http://www.ng.ru/cis/2007-10-17/6_obgon.html; «Абхазия возобновит экспорт вина в Россию». Алкогольный портал, 2007, 8 октфбря, http://tatalc.ru/tatalc2/?pg=3&bl=1&md=2&iddoc=11139. 94 magaliTad, Katinka Barysch, Robert Cottrell, Franco Frattini, Paul Hare, Pascal Lamy, Maxim Medvedkov, Yevgeny Yasin. Russia and the WTO. London: Centre for European Reform (CER), 2002, http://www.cer.org.uk/pdf/p394_russia_wto.pdf. 95Tea gulariZe, `mniSvnelovani berketi”. Civil.Ge, 2007, 1 ivnisi, saitze http://www.civil.ge/geo/article.php?id=15448; “baqraZe natos Sesaxeb da ruseTis vmo-Si gawevrianebaze saubrobs”. Civil.Ge, 2008, 25 Tebervali, http://www.civil.ge/geo/article.php?id=17576. 96 magaliTad, Steve LeVin. The Oil and the Glory: The Pursuit of Empire and Fortune on the Caspian Sea. New York: Random House, 2007; Mamuka Tsereteli. “Beyond Georgia: Russia’s Strategic Interests in Eurasia”. Central Asia-Caucasus Institute Analyst, 2008, June 11, http://www.cacianalyst.org/?q=node/4879. 97 С. Б. Дружиловский. «К вопросу об альтернативной стратегии Российской Федерации в сфере энергетической политики», Средиземноморье – Черноморье – Каспий: между Большой Европой и Большим Ближним Востоком. Под ред. Н. П. Шмелева, В. А. Гусейнова, А. А. Язьковой. Москва: Издательский дом «Граница», 2006, 80. 98 Roy Allison. “Russia Resurgent? Moscow’s Campaign to ‘Coerce Georgia to Peace’.” International Affairs, 2008, Vol. 84, No. 6, р. 1161. 99 `saqarTvelo tovebs dsT-s — saakaSvili~. Civil.Ge, 2008, 12 agvisto, saitze http://www.civil.ge/geo/article.php?id=19096; “parlamentma dsT-dan gamosvlas dauWira mxari”. Civil.Ge, 2008, 14 agvisto, http://www.civil.ge/geo/article.php?id=19145.

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bolo periodSi iseTi STabeWdileba rCeba, rom saqarTvelosa da ruseTs Soris aranairi ekonomikuri urTierToba ar arsebobs. es ase araa, radgan saqarTvelo aris samuSao Zalis `eqsportiori~ ruseTSi, xolo ruseTi ki saqarTveloSi investiciebis erT-erTi mTavari `eqsportioria~.

sagareo vaWrobis sferoSi arsebuli mniSvnelovani SezRudvebis gamo saqarTvelosa da ruseTs Soris vaWroba dReisaTvis sakmaod Sekvecilia, Tumca sruliad Sewyvetili ar aris. oficialuri statistikuri monacemebis Tanaxmad, ruseTSi qarTuli eqsportis wili, saqarTvelos eqsportis mTel moculobasTan SedarebiT, 2005 wlis (anu erTi wliT adre, sanam ruseTi qarTuli produqciis Tavis bazarze Setanas akrZalavda) 17,8 procentidan 2008 wels 2,0 procentamde Semcirda, 2010 wels ki 2,2 procenti Seadgina100. igive tendencia SeiniSneba saqarTveloSi rusuli importis wilis SezRudvis TvalsazrisiTac: Tuki 2005 wels ruseTidan saqarTveloSi importi 15,4 procents Seadgenda, 2008 wels es maCvenebeli 6,7 procentamde Semcirda, xolo 2010 wels 5,5 procenti Seadgina101. aqve unda aRiniSnos, rom 2010 wlis saqarTvelos sagareo savaWro brunvaSi ruseTs ukavia mexuTe adgili (TurqeTis, azerbaijanis, ukrainisa da germaniis Semdeg), magram win uswrebs aSS-s, bulgareTs, CineTs da a.S.102

cnobilia, rom saqarTvelos bevri moqalaqe, maT Soris eTnikurad qarTvelebic, romlebmac miiRes ruseTis moqalaqeoba da cxovroben ruseTSi,103 TavianTi Semosavlis nawils saqarTveloSi macxovrebel naTesavebs uricxaven. ruseTis mier saqarTvelosTan savizo reJimis SemoRebam da 2006 wels ruseTSi mcxovrebi eTnikurad qarTvelebis (maT Soris ruseTis moqalaqeebisac)104 gamoZevebam, sabanko sistemis ganviTarebasTan erTad, xeli Seuwyo fuladi gzavnilebisTvis sabanko arxebis gamoyenebas, ramac mniSvnelovnad Caanacvla postsabWoTa sivrceSi gavrcelebuli sistema, romelic efuZneboda naTesavebisTvis fulis gagzavnis praqtikas nacnob-megobrebis xeliT105. am tendenciaze 2008 wlis agvistos ruseT-saqarTvelos ommac ki ver iqonia gavlena. 2005 wels (anu qarTvelebis ruseTidan gamoZevebamde erTi wliT adre) saqarTveloSi sul gadmoiricxa 403 mln. aSS dolarze meti, aqedan ruseTidan — 240 mln. aSS dolarze meti, ramac mTeli fuladi gzavnilebis 59,6 procenti Seadgina. 2008 wels fuladi gzavnilebis odenoba, 2005 welTan SedarebiT, gaizarda 2,6-jer da 1002 milioni aSS dolari Seadgina, sadac 2,6-jeraa gazrdili fuladi gzavnilebi ruseTidan da Seadgens TiTqmis 634 mln. aSS dollars _ ukve fuladi gzavnilebiT miRebuli mTliani Tanxis 63,3 procents106. 2009 wels, globaluri finansuri krizisis gamo, saqarTveloSi gadmoricxulma fuladma gzavnilebma (sul 842 mln. aSS dolari) ukve 2008 wels Tanxis 84 procenti Seadgina, ruseTidan ki, ufro cota, _ mxolod 71,0 procenti (ruseTidan saqarTveloSi gadmoricxuli fuladi gzavnilebis wilma

100 `saqarTvelos sagareo vaWroba qveynebis mixedviT~. saqarTvelos statistikis erovnuli samsaxuri, http://www.geostat.ge/index.php?action=page&p_id=136&lang=geo. 101 iqve. 102 iqve. 103 ruseTSi aqtualuria SromiT imigraciis problema (ix.: С. В. Антуфьев. «Реалии трудовой иммиграции в современной России». Право и безопасность, 2005, № 3 (16), август, http://dpr.ru/pravo/pravo_16_18.htm). 104 Владимер Папава. «Нелиберальная “либеральная империя” России». Project Syndicate, 2007, 28 февраля, http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/papava2/Russian. 105 Merab Kakulia. “Labour Migrants’ Remittances to Georgia: Volume, Structure and Socio-Economic Effect.” Georgian Economic Trends, 2007, October, p. 56. 106 `fuladi gzavnilebi qveynebis mixedviT~. saqarTvelos erovnuli banki, http://www.nbg.gov.ge/index.php?m=306.

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Seadgina mTliani Tanxis naxevarze meti _ 53,5 procenti)107, rac, pirvel rigSi, ruseTSi ekonomikuri krizisis gansakuTrebuli simZimiT aixsneba. 2010 wels, 2009 welTan SedarebiT, saqarTveloSi gaizarda fuladi gzavnilebis odenoba rogorc saerTod (940 mln. aSS dolari), ise ruseTidanac (530 mln. aSS dolari), Sesabamisad gaizarda ruseTidan saqarTveloSi gadmoricxuli fuladi gzavnilebis wilic, romelmac 56,4 procenti Seadgina108.

gacilebiT rTulia saqarTvelos ekonomikaSi Cadebuli rusuli (da ara marto rusuli) investiciebis met-naklebad zusti odenobis dadgena, radgan statistikuri informacia imdenad arasrulyofilia, rom masze dayrdnoba ar iZleva realuri viTarebis Sesaxeb safuZvliani daskvnebis gakeTebis saSualebas. amis ZiriTadi mizezia is, rom bevri firma, romelmac pirdapiri investiciebi ganaxorciela, daregistrirebulia ofSorul zonebSi, ris gamoc SeuZlebelia dadgindes am fuladi nakadebis realuri warmomavloba. amasTan, oficialuri statistikis Tanaxmad, ruseTi, saqarTveloSi 2010 wels ganxorcielbuli investiciebis mixedviT, niderlandis da aSS-is Semdeg, mesame adgilzea109.

mas Semdeg, rac moskovma aRiara afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis saxelmwifo damoukidebloba, Tbilisis pozicia ruseTis msoflio savaWro organizaciaSi SesvlasTan dakavSirebiT ufro kargad gamoikveTa: Tu oficialuri moskovi nebas ar miscems qarvel mebaJeebs imuSaon am or separatistul teritoriaze, anu or qveyanas Soris arsebul saerTaSoriso doneze aRiarebul sazRvrebze, saqarTvelo oficialurad ar daeTanxmdeba ruseTis msoflio savaWro organizaciaSi gawevrianebas110. 2011 wlis martSi, ruseT-saqarTvelos omis Semdeg pirvelad, bernSi (Sveicaria) ruseTis msoflio savaWro organizaciaSi gawevrianebis Taobaze saTaTbirod erTmaneTs oficialurad Sexvdnen ruseTisa da saqarTvelos warmomadgenlobiTi delegaciebi. rogorc Cans, aseTi Sexvedrebi 2011 wlis manZilze kidev Catardeba.

isev rTulia viTareba azerbaijanis energetikuli resursebis transportirebis derefnad saqarTvelos gamoyenebasTan dakavSirebiT. ruseT-saqarTvelos omma es mdgomareoba kidev ufro gaarTula. am omis dros rusulma aviaciam dabomba saqarTveloze gamavali milsadenebi, romlebic sakmaod moSorebiTaa samxreT oseTidan, romlis dacvac omis dawyebis formaluri sababi iyo111. omis Sedegad eWvqveS dadga satransporto derefnis _ saqarTveloze gamavali milsadenebis usafrTxoeba112. sabednierod, energetikuli resursebis saqarTvelos gavliT transportirebasTan

107 iqve. 108 iqve. 109 `2010 wels pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebi 16%-T Cemcirdeba~. Civil.Ge, 2011, 12 marti, http://www.civil.ge/geo/article.php?id=23765. 110 Кристиан Лоу. «Грузия не отказывается от своей позиции по поводу вступления России в ВТО». ИноСМИ.ru, 2010, 28 октября, на сайте http://www.inosmi.ru/caucasus/20101028/163900779.html 111 magaliTad, Alexander Jackson. “IA Forum Interview: Vladimer Papava.” International Affairs Forum, 2008, August 14, http://ia-forum.org/Content/ViewInternalDocument.cfm?ContentID=6377. 112 Stephen F. Jones. “Clash in the Caucasus: Georgia, Russia, and the Fate of South Ossetia.” Origins: Current Events in Historical Perspective, 2008, Vol. 2, Iss. 2, http://ehistory.osu.edu/osu/origins/article.cfm?articleid=20; Jad Mouawad. “Conflict Narrows Oil Options for West.” The New York Times, 2008, August 13, http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/14/world/europe/14oil.html; John Roberts. “Georgia Falls Victim to Pipeline Politics.” BBC News, 2008, August 12, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7557049.stm. aqve unda aRiniSnos, rom rusuli agresiis erT-erT mizans swored saqarTveloze gamavali milsadenebis usafrTxoebasTan dakavSirebuli eWvebis gaZliereba warmoadgenda (Pierre Hassner. “One Cold War Among Many?” Survival, 2008, Vol. 50, No. 4, 250).

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dakavSirebuli ndobis aRdgenas didi dro ar dasWirvebia113. garda amisa, faqtma, rom moskovma am gziT ver SeZlo mieRwia dasaxuli miznisaTvis _ gaekontrolebina milsadenebi114, anu yofili ssrk-is energoresursebis dasavleTisaken transportirebis sruli monopolizeba moexdina, ubiZga amerikasac da evropasac, rom ufro gulmodginebiT Sedgomodnen navTobisa da gazis transportirebisaTvis ruseTis alternatiuli gzebis Ziebas115.

problemis mogvarebis zogierTi gza

ssrk-is daSlis Semdeg saqarTvelosa da ruseTs Soris Camoyalibebuli ekonomikuri urTierTobebis zemoT warmodgenili analizis mixedviT, naklebi optimizmi gvrCeba imedisaTvis, rom uaxloes momavalSi am mxriv viTareba mniSvnelovnad Seicveba. Cvens pesimizms orive qveynis liderebis gancxadebebic aRrmavebs116. Tumca, saqarTvelos prezidentis mixeil saakaSvilis mcdelobas, ruseTis xelmZRvanelobasTan daewyo dialogi117, rusi kolegis ukiduresad negatiuri pasuxi mohyva118.

am viTarebis mixedviT, SedarebiT SesaZleblad gveCveneba status-kvos SenarCuneba saqarTvelo-ruseTis ekonomikur urTierTobebSi. aseT SemTxvevaSi gagrZeldeba is ekonomikuri urTierTobebi, romlebic am bolo wlebSi Camoyalibda _ ruseTis msxvili kompaniebi arian erT-erT mTavari `moTamaSeebi~ saqarTveloSi moqmed ucxoel investorebs Soris, xolo saqarTvelo _ ruseTSi samuSao Zalis `mimwodebeli~. amasTan, ruseTis bazari kvlav daxuruli iqneba qarTuli Rvinis, minaraluri wylebisa da sxva sasoflo-sameurneo produqciisaTvis, xolo saqarTvelo win aRudgeba ruseTis msoflio savaWro organizaciaSi Sesvlas, aseve gagrZeldeba dapirispireba Tbilissa da moskovs Soris energoresursebis transportirebasTan dakavSirebiT. laparakia qarTuli produqtebisaTvis ruseTis bazris gaxsnaze, ruseTis msoflio savaWro organizaciaSi SesvlasTan dakavSirebiT konsensusis miRwevaze da navTobisa da gazis transportirebis sferoSi midgomebis Secvlaze. qvemoT yvela am mimarTulebas cal-calke ganvixilavT.

ruseTs saqarTvelosaTvis savaWro embargo oficialurad ar gamoucxadebia, qarTuli produqtebisaTvis ruseTis bazri ki ruseTis mTavarma sanitariulma eqimma am produqtebis uxarisxobis momizezebiT daxura. aqedan gamomdinare, ruseTis msoflio savaWro organizaciaSi Sesvlis Semdegac SeeZleba qarTuli warmomavlobis produqciis, viTomda uxarisxobis mimizezebiT, ruseTis bazarze ardaSveba119. Sesabamisad, qarTuli produqtebis rusul bazarze

113 Vladimir Socor. “Business Confidence Returning to the South Caucasus Transport Corridor.” Eurasia Daily Monitor, The Jamestown Foundation, 2008, Vol. 5, No. 186, September 28, http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=33978. 114 Ariel Cohen, and Lajos F. Szaszdi. “Russia’s Drive for Global Economic Power: A Challenge for the Obama Administration.” The Heritage Foundation, 2009, Backgrounder No. 2235, January 30, http://www.heritage.org/research/RussiaandEurasia/bg2235.cfm. 115 Ivan Krastev. “Russia and the Georgia War: the Great-Power Trap.” Open Democracy News Analysis, 2008, August 31, http://www.opendemocracy.net/article/russia-and-the-georgia-war-the-great-power-trap 116 magaliTad, `saakaSvili: putins saqarTvelosTvis araferi kargi ar surs~. Civil.Ge, 2010, 22 ianvari, http://www.civil.ge/geo/article.php?id=22261; «Путин высмеивает грузинского лидера Саакашвили». ИноСМИ.ru, 2000, 20 ноября, http://www.inosmi.ru/caucasus/20091120/156575284.html. 117 magaliTad, Ия Агулашвили. «Примет ли Медведев предложение Саакашвили?». Резонанси, 2009, 17 марта, http://www.apsny.ge/analytics/1237355387.php. 118 magaliTad, «При Саакашвили Россия и Грузия не восстановят отношения – Медведев». РИА Новости, 2010, 24 июня, http://www.rian.ru/video/20100624/249738309.html. 119magaliTad: «Г. Онищенко: Грузия ничего не делает для улучшения качества вин». Yarmarka.net, 2006, 17 июля, http://www.yarmarka.net/news/news.asp?id=37794.

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dabrunebis sakiTxis mibma ruseTis msoflio savaWro organizaciaSi gawevrianebis sakiTxTan, Tundac formaluri TvalsazrisiT, ar aris marTlzomieri.

viTvaliswinebT ra ruseTis mTavari sanitariuli eqimis araerTgzis gancxadebas akrZaluli qarTuli produqtebis ruseTis bazarze Sesatanad molaparakebebis aRsadgenad mzadyofnasTan dakavSirebiT120 da am ori qveynis liderebs Soris arsebul politikur daZabulobas, razec zemoT gvqonda laparaki, vfiqrobT, rom ruseTis bazarze dabrunebis iniciativa uSualod am produqtebis mwarmoebeli msxvili qarTveli mewarmeebisagan da maTi gaerTianebebisagan unda wamovides (magaliTad, meRvineTa asociaciisagan). es Tavad mewarmeTa interesebSia, amitom swored maT unda imuSaon, raTa maT mier warmoebuli produqtebi akmayofilebdes ruseTis saxelmwifo sanitariuli samsaxuris mier dadgenil xarisxis moTxovnebs. saeqsporto produqtebis qarTveli mewarmeebis gaaqtiureba an dadebiT Sedegebs gamoiRebs da ruseTis bazari maTTvis gaixsneba, an kidev erTxel daanaxebs mTel saerTaSoriso sazogadoebas moskovis saqarTvelosTan damokidebulebas da ruseTis bazris daxurvis problema `sanitariuli~ (rasac mudmivad xazs usvams ruseTis mxare) CarCoebidan gamova da aSkarad miiRebs politikur datvirTvas. aqve auclebladaa gasaTvaliswinebeli, rom im dros, rodesac daxuruli iyo ruseTis bazari, qarTulma Rvinoebma gauZles xarisxis gamocdas rogorc evropis qveynebSi121, ise aSS-Si122 da am fonze Tuki ruseTis mTavari sanitariuli eqimi qarTuli Rvinoebis akrZalvas kvlavac maTi uxarisxobiT axsnis, es kidev ufro Seulaxavs moskovs saxels, vidre es 2006 wels iyo.

gansakuTrebiT mwvaved dgas ruseTis msoflio savaWro organizaciaSi Sesasvlelad saqarTvelos Tanxmobis miRebis problema. Tbilisi, miuxedavad imisa, rom ar Seucvlia Tavisi moTxovnebi ruseTis mimarT123, drodadro acxadebda, rom mzadaa daiwyos moskovTan molaparakebebi ruseTis msoflio savaWro organizaciaSi124 Sesasvlelad da maTi pirveli Sexvdra Catarda kidec 2011 wlis martSi (rogorc zemoTac aRiniSna)125. moskovis optimizms, rom daZlevs qarTul `bariers~, safuZvlad udevs varaudi, rom aSS aiZulebs Tbiliss gaxdes ufro damTmobi ruseTis msoflio savaWro organizaciaSi

120magaliTad: «Онищенко предложил возобновить винные переговоры с Грузией». Лента.Ру, 2006, 11 августа, http://lenta.ru/news/2006/08/11/alko1/; «Онищенко: Грузия хочет возобновить поставки вин в Россию». kvkz.ru, 2007, 31 июля, на сайте http://kvkz.ru/2007/07/31/onishhenko_gruzija_khochet_vozobnovit_postavki_vin_v_rossiju.html; «Онищенко: у Грузии нет желания возобновлять поставки "Боржоми" в Россию». Кавказский узел, 2010, 5 января, http://www.kavkaz-uzel.ru/articles/163891/. 121 magaliTad: Keti Chkhikvadze. “Small-Biz: Planning to Export to the EU?” The Financial, 2010, January 11, http://www.finchannel.com/Main_News/Business/74435_Small-Biz%3A_Planning_to_Export_to_the_EU?/; Keti Chkhikvadze. “Who in the EU Knows about Georgian Wine?” The Financial, 2011, February 02, http://www.finchannel.com/Main_News/Geo/81380_Who_in_the_EU_Knows_about_Georgian_Wine?/. 122 magaliTad: Dave DeSimone. “Wines from Republic of Georgia Blend Modern, Traditional Styles.” The Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, 2010, July 27, http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/ae/s_692191.html; Elizabeth Downer. “Wine from Georgia? It's a Great Story.” Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, 2010, September 02, http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/10245/1084192-389.stm. 123 magaliTad: `ruseTis vmo-Si gawevrianebaze saqarTvelos pozicia `ucvlelia~. Civil Georgia, 2010, 5 oqtomberi, http://www.civil.ge/rus/article.php?id=21238; Десмонд Батлер. «Премьер-министр Грузии обозначил позицию по вопросу вступления России в ВТО». ИноСМИ.ru, 2010, 7 октября, http://www.inosmi.ru/caucasus/20101007/163434813.html. 124 magaliTad, «Власти Грузии готовы к переговорам с РФ по поводу вступления России в ВТО». Независимая газета, 2010, 12 сентября, http://www.ng.ru/cis/2010-12-09/6_gruzia.html. 125 `ruseTma da saqarTvelom vmo-ze molaparakebebi ganaaxles~. Civil Georgia, 2011, 10 marti, http://www.civil.ge/geo/article.php?id=23753.

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SesvlasTan dakavSirebiT126. marTalia, aSS mouwodebs saqarTvelos, iyos ufro `kreatiuli~ am mimarTulebiT127, magram vaSingtoni imavdroulad erTmniSvnelovnad usvams xazs, rom molaparakebebi saqarTvelo-ruseTs Soris ruseTis msoflio savaWro organizaciaSi SesvlasTan dakavSirebiT aris ormxrivi procesi, raSic aSS ar ereva128.

cnobilia, rom saqarvelos strategiuli partniorebi _ aSS da evrokavSiri _ ar malaven, rom dainteresebuli arin ruseTis msoflio savaWro organizaciaSi SesvliT da 2011 wels dasrulda kidec molaparakebebi, romelTa Sedegadac ruseTma miiRo Tanxmoba organizaciaSi gawevrianebaze129.

saqarTvelo-ruseTis afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis monakveTebze sazRvris sabaJo kontrolTan dakavSirebuli problemebisgan ganyenebiT ori azri ar aris, rom saqarTveloc aranaklebaa dainteresebuli ruseTTan rogorc msoflio savaWro organizaciis wevrTan savaWro urTierTobebiT, radgan es garemoeba Tvisobrivad gaaumjobesebs ruseT-saqarvelos savaWro-ekonomikur urTierTobebs da maT ufro prognozirebads gaxdis. gaTvaliswinebiT imisa, rom saqarTvelos interesebSi aseve ar Sedis aSS-Tan da evrokavSirTan urTierTobebis garTuleba, vfiqrobT, rom Tbilisi am sakiTxSi garkveul daTmobebze wava.

am konteqstSi sayuradReboa am sakiTxTan dakavSirebiT saqarTvelos zogierTi opoziciuri politikuri partiis liderebis mier wamoyenebuli midgoma, rom Tu moskovi Tbiliss uflebas ar miscems gaxsnas sakontrolo-gamSvebi punqtebi saqarTvelo-ruseTis sazRvris afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis monakveTebze, maSin Tbiliss SeuZlia wavides kompromisul variantze da mosTxovos moskovs am monakveTebSi romelime legitimuri saerTaSoriso organizaciis warmomadgenlebis dayeneba130. aseTi organizacia SeiZleba iyos evrokavSiri, romlis damkvirveblebic ganlagdebian miTiTebul adgilebSi131.

Cveni mosazrebiT, es midgoma, romelic SeiZleba saqarTvelos xelmZRvanelobisTvisac misaRebi iyos, sakmaod Seesabameba realobas, oRond saqarTvelo-ruseTs Soris sabaJo sakiTxebis mogvarebaSi unda CaerTos msoflio sabaJo organizaciac. mxedvelobaSia misaRebi is garemoeba, rom orive es qveyana aris msoflio sabaJo organizaciis wevri (saqarTvelo _ 1993 wlidan, xolo ruseTi _ 1992 wlidan), organizaciisa, romlis erT-erTi mTavari amocanaa sabaJo sferoSi saerTaSoriso TanamSromlobis ganviTareba da romelsac aqvs mWidro kavSiri interpolTan, gaeros uSiSroebis sabWos kontrteroristul organizaciasTan, gaeros samsaxurTan, romelic muSaobs narkotikebis kontrolis mimarTulebiT.

126 Anders Åslund. “Why Doesn’t Russia Join the WTO?” The Washington Quarterly, 2010, Vol. 33, No.2, p. 11, http://www.twq.com/10april/docs/10apr_Aslund.pdf. 127 `aSS vmo-Si gawevrianebis Taobaze ruseT-saqarTvelos davis `kreatiuli gadawyvetisken~ mouwodebs~. Civil Georgia, 2010, 20 oqtomberi, http://www.civil.ge/geo/article.php?id=23258. 128 `obamas mrCeveli vmo-ze ruseT-saqarTvelos molaparakebebis Sesaxeb~. Civil Georgia, 2011, 5 marti, http://www.civil.ge/geo/article.php?id=23737. 129 magaliTad, Elizabeth Williamson. “Obama: Russia Belongs in WTO.” The Wall Street Journal, 2010, June 25, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704911704575327004122683016.html; Juliane von Reppert-Bismarck, and Alexei Anishchuk. “EU Agrees to Back Russia's WTO Entry.” Reuters, 2010, December 7, http://www.reuters.com/article/2010/12/07/us-eu-russia-wto-idUSTRE6B621R20101207. 130 magaliTad, `irakli alasania qarTul mxares ruseTis vmo-Si gawevrianebis Tanxmobis winapirobad or winadadebas sTavazobs~. GHN, 2011, 7 marti, http://www.ghn.ge/news-36411.html. 131 magaliTad, `giorgi TargamaZe ruseTis vmo-Si gawevrianebasTan dakavSirebiT or qveyanas Soris dialogis dawyebas miesalmeba~. GHN, 2011, 7 marti, http://www.ghn.ge/news-36379.html.

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energetikuli resursebis transportirebis sferoSi gansakuTrebuli mniSvneloba eniWeba milsadenebis qselis diversifikaciis sferoSi axali midgomebis SemuSavebas. es, pirvel rigSi, unda daefuZnos e.w. `alternatiuli milsadenebis~ paradigmas. rogorc cnobilia, kaspiis zRvis auzis naxSirwyalbadis resursebs miiCneven ruseTis naxSirwyalbadis resursebis alternativad da milsadenebi, romlebiTac kaspiis navTobi da gazi dasavleTis bazrebs ruseTis gverdis avliT miewodeba (aseve milsadenebis is proeqtebi, romlebic amas ganaxorcieleben), iTvleba ruseTze gamavali milsadenebis `alternatiulad~. termini `alternatiuli~ garkveulwilad moicavs ruseTis dapirispirebas sxva qveynebTan.

milsadenebis qselis ganviTarebis aRqmis amgvari xelovnuroba kargad Cans baqo-Tbilisi-sufsis navTobsadenis, baqo-Tbilisi-jeihanis da samxreT-kavkasiuri gazsadenis magaliTebze. am navTobsadenebiT transportirebuli navTobi rusuli navTobis eqsportis mxolod aT procents Tu Seesabameba, xolo samxreT-kavkasiuri gazsadeniT transportirebuli gazi _ gazis rusuli eqsportis or procents132. bunebrivia, rom aseTi TanafardobiT baqo-Tbilisi-sufsisa da baqo-Tbilisi-jeihanis navTobsadenebi da samxreT-kavkasiuri gazsadeni ver Seasruleben rusuli milsadenebis `alternatiul~ funqcias.

sinamdvileSi baqo-Tbilisi-sufsis, baqo-Tbilisi-jeihanis, samxreTkavkasiuri gazsadeni Tu ruseTis teritoriaze gamavali, navTobisa da gazis dasavleTSi gadamtani milsadenebi, aris urTierTSemavsebeli milsadenebi. navTobisa da gazis Seuferxebeli miwodebisTvis ki saWiroa swored milsadenebis iseTi sistemis arseboba, sadac es milsadenebi ar iqnebian urTierTdakavSirebuli da gauTvaliswinebel SemTxvevebSi (magaliTad, teqnikuri xarvezebis an remontis dros) SeuZliaT momxmarebels daubrkoleblad miawodon es produqtebi.

yovelive zemoTqmulidan gamomdinare, aucilebelia `alternatiuli milsadenebis~ paradigmidan gadavideT `urTierTSemavsebeli milsadenebis~, anu `milsadenebis harmonizaciis~ paradigmaze133. es ukanaskneli ki efuZneba partniorobas im subieqtebs Soris, romlebic moipoveben, transportirebas axorcieleben da navTobsa da gazs moixmaren. yvela am mxares Soris konsensusi safuZvlad `milsadenebis harmonizacias~ daedeba.

Zalian mniSvnelovania, rom yvela moqmedi milsadeni, aseve milsadenebis dReisaTvis aqtualuri proeqtebi _ `TeTri nakadi~, `nabuqo~, `CrdiloeTis nakadi~ da `samxreTis nakadi~ _ ganixilebodes `milsadenebis harmonizaciis~ paradigmis farglebSi. amisaTvis aucilebelia yvela dainteresebulma mxarem miiRos principuli gadawyvetileba _ iTanamSromlon erTmaneTTan, raTa daculi iyos momxmareblis uflebebi, rom energetikuli resursebi Seuferxeblad miewodebodes maT. am mimarTulebiT inicitiva, pirvel rigSi, unda wamovides saqarTvelosgan (ukeTesi iqneba, Tuki saqarTvelo

132 es sakiTxebi gacilebiT dawvrilebiT ix.: Vladimer Papava, Sabit Bagirov, Leonid Grigoriev, Wojciech Paczynski, Marcel Salikhov, and Micheil Tokmazishvil. Energy Trade and Cooperation Between the EU and CIS Countries. CASE Network Reports, No. 83. Warsaw: CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research, 2009, http://www.case.com.pl/upload/publikacja_plik/23703888_CNR_83_final.pdf. 133 Vladimer Papava and Michael Tokmazishvili. “Pipeline Harmonization Instead of Alternative Pipelines: Why the Pipeline ‘Cold War’ Needs to End.” Azerbaijan in the World. The Electronic Publication of Azerbaijan Diplomatic Academy, 2008, Vol. I, No. 10, June 15, http://www.ada.edu.az/biweekly/issues/150/20090327030535315.html; Vladimer Papava and Michael Tokmazishvili. “Russian Energy Politics and the EU: How to Change the Paradigm.” Caucasian Review of International Affairs, 2010, Vol. 4 (2) – Spring, http://www.criaonline.org/Journal/11/Done_Russian_Energy_Politics_and_EU_How_to_Change_the_Paradigm_by_Vladimer_Papava_and_Michael_Tokmazishvili.pdf.

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azerbaijanTan tandemSi imoqmedebs134) da evrokavSirisa da aSS-is aqtiuri daxmarebiT unda daarwmunon moskovi, rom `milsadenebis harmonizaciis~ paradigma marTebulia da mizanSewonilia misi realizacia.

yovelive zemoTqmuli rom SevajamoT, ganxiluli alternativebidan yvelaze naklebad mizanSewonilia pirveli _ uaxloes momavalSi saqarTvelo-ruseTs Soris ekonomikuri urTierTobebis status-kvos SenarCuneba. ra Tqma unda, gacilebiT saxarbielo iqneboda: a)winsvla qarTuli warmoSobis produqtebis ruseTis bazarze dasabruneblad msxvili qarTveli mewrmeebisa da maTi gaerTianebebis iniciativiT; b)ruseT-saqarTvelos Soris sabaJo sakiTxebis mogvarebaSi saerTaSoriso organizaciebis (magaliTad, evrokavSiris) warmomadgenlebis, maT Soris, msoflio sabaJo organizaciis, CarTva ruseTis msoflio savaWro organizaciaSi gawevrianebaze saqarTvelos Tanxmobis sanacvlod; g)`alternatiuli milsadenebis~ paradigmidan `urTierTSemavsebeli milsadenebis~, anu `milsadenebis harmonizaciis~ paradigmaze gadasvla, romelic daefuZneba navTobisa da gazis mompovebeli, transportirebiT dakavebuli da momxmarebeli subieqtebis partniorobas.

amgvarad, warmodgenili mimarTulebebiT muSaobis dawyeba SeiZleba paraleluradac moxdes, radgan es mimarTulebebi alternatiulia ara erTmaneTis mimarT, aramed saqarTvelo-ruseTs Soris ekonomikuri urTierTobebis status-kvos SenarCunebisa.

rekomendaciebi

ukanaskneli ori aTwleulis manZilze saqarTvelo-ruseTs Soris arsebuli ekonomikuri urTierTobebis analizis safuZvelze gamovlinda ZiriTadi gadauWreli problemebi, romlebic xels uSlian am urTierTobebis Semdgom ganviTarebas. am sakiTxebis mosagvareblad aucilebelia:

• daubrundes qarTuli warmoSobis produqtebi ruseTis bazars;

• gamoinaxos konsensusi ruseTis msoflio savaWro organizaciaSi Sesasvlelad;

• daiwyos TanamSromloba navTobisa da gazis evropis mimarTulebiT transportirebis sferoSi.

am mimarTulebebiT muSaoba SesaZlebelia paralelur reJimSi.

qarTuli warmoSobis produqtebis ruseTis bazarze dabrunebis sakiTxebiT, pirvel rigSi, unda dakavdnen is mewarmeebi (da maTi gaerTianebebi), romelTac dakarges es bazari. saqarTvelos xelisuflebam ki maT xeli ar unda SeuSalos.

ruseTis msoflio savaWro organozaciaSi gawevrianebisTvis saqarTvelos Tanxmobis sanacvlod Tbilisma unda mosTxovos moskovs, rom am or qveyanas Soris sabaJo sakiTxebis mowesrigebis saqmeSi CaerTon saerTaSoriso organizaciebi (magaliTad, evrokavSiri), maT Soris _ msoflio sabaJo organizacia. mocemuli problemis mosagvareblad didi mniSvneloba aqvs am organizaciebis mzaobas, miiRon monawileoba sabaJo sakiTxebis mowesrigebaSi saqarTvelo-ruseTis sazRvrebis afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis monakveTebze. amisaTvis saarTvelos xelisuflebam evrokavSiris Sesabamis stuqturebTan da msoflio sabaJo organizaciis xelmZRvanelobasTan unda daiwyos molaparakebebi.

134 Vladimer Papava. “Formation and Development of the “Caucasian Tandem”.” Azerbaijan Focus, 2009, Vol. 1 (1).

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saqarTvelo-ruseTs Soris navTobisa da gazis evropisaken transportirebis sferoSi TanamSromlobis dasawyebad aucilebelia `alternatiuli milsadenebis~ paradigmaze uaris Tqma da gadasvla `urTierTSemavsebeli milsadenebis~, anu `milsadenebis harmonizaciis~ paradigmaze. paradigmaTa aseTi Canacvleba SesaZlebeli gaxdeba mxolod aqtiuri moqmedebebis SemTxvevaSi yvela dainteresebuli mxaris, pirvel rigSi ki, evrokavSirisa da misi im wevri-qveynebisa, romlebic uSualod iReben (an momavalSi miiReben) navTobsa da gazs saqarTvelos gavliT. am mizniT saqarTvelos xelisuflebam aqtiurad unda imuSaos uSualod am qveynebTan da aseve evrokavSirTan, raTa moxdes zemoT aRniSnuli `alternatiuli milsadenebis~ paradigmis `urTierTSemavsebeli milsadenebis~, anu `milsadenebis harmonizaciis~ paradigmiT Canacvleba. aranaklebi aqtiurobaa saWiro am mimarTulebiT aSS-is xelmZRvanelobasTan samuSaod, romelsac arsebiTi gavlena aqvs dasavleTisa da evraziis energetikuli politikis Camoyalibeba-ganxorcielebaze.

daskvnebi

miuxedavad saqarTvelo-ruseTis urTierTobebis sirTulisa, gansakuTrebiT 2008 wlis agvistos omis Semdeg, am qveynebs Soris ekonomikuri kavSirebi ar gamwydara. grZeldeba vaWroba am or qveyanas Soris (marTalia, Tvisobrivad SedarebiT dabal doneze), ufro mniSvnelovani gaxda rusuli kapitalis aqtiuroba qarTul ekonomikaSi, xolo qarTuli samuSao Zala (sxva yofili sabWoTa respublikebis msgavsad), Tavis mxriv, aqtiurad gamoiyeneba rusul ekonomikaSi, Tanac ruseTSi momuSaveebi TavianTi Semosavlis nawils saqarTveloSi mcxovreb naTesavebs ugzavnian.

amasTan, saqarTvelo-ruseTis ekonomikur urTierTobebSi dagrovda iseTi mwvave problemebi, romelTa mosagvarebladac gansakuTrebuli yuradRebaa saWiro. es problemebia: ruseTis bazarze qarTuli produqciis dabruneba, ruseTis msoflio savaWro organizaciaSi SesvlasTan dakavSirebiT konsensusis miRweva da navTobisa da gazis evropisaken transportirebis saqmeSi TanamSromloba. Tuki pirveli problemis mosagvareblad iniciativa unda wamovide qarTveli saqonelmwarmoeblebisa da maTi gaerTianebebidan, meore da mesame problemis gadawyvetaSi gansakuTrebuli mniSvneloba aqvs saqarTvelos xelisuflebisa da am sakiTxebiT uSualod dainteresebuli saerTaSoriso sazogadoebis aqtiur moqmedebebs. saerTaSoriso organizaciebis formatma, romelTa wevrebi arian saqarTveloc da ruseTic, SeiZleba mniSvnelovani roli iTamaSon garkveuli pozitiuri Sedegebis misaRwevad.