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Rogun Hydropower Project Techno-Economic Assessment INDEPENDENT PANEL OF EXPERTS. ENGINEERING/DAM SAFETY PANEL 15 May 2011. TEAS Panel of Experts (PoE) Membership. Roger Gill (Chair) - Hydropower Policy Expert - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Rogun Hydropower Project
Techno-Economic Assessment
INDEPENDENT PANEL OF EXPERTS
ENGINEERING/DAM SAFETY PANEL
15 May 2011
TEAS Panel of Experts (PoE) Membership
Roger Gill (Chair) - Hydropower Policy Expert
Ljiljana Spasic-Gril - Dam Engineering/Dam Safety/ Seismic Engineering Expert
Paul Marinos - Engineering Geology/Rock Mechanics Expert (will visit site in future)
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Terms of ReferenceTo ensure due diligence and international quality
standards in the studies
To provide independent advice and guidance to support objectivity and credibility in the assessment process
To share technical expertise and knowledge
PRIMARY OUTCOME:
Ensure international standards of design, risk evaluation and impact assessment are met
Assure a level of confidence amongst the international community in the quality and integrity of the assessment process and findings
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PoE Process
To date PoE have reviewed ToR, Inception Report, completed a first site visit and held discussions in Dushanbe
PoE members are confident that the process should ensure that no BIG issues are overlooked
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Client (Barki Tajik)
TEAS Consultant (Coyne et Bellier/ELC/IPA)
Hydroprojekt Moscow (HPM)
ESIA Consultant (Poyry)
TEAS at feasibility stage while HPM is undertaking detailed design
Coordination and communication between all the parties is critical to the effective execution of the program
TEAS consultant should visit HPM in Moscow and view the spillway physical model
Sharing short fortnightly Progress Reports amongst the key Actors is recommended
Integrating the Key Actors
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Recommendations to guide future work
To align with good international practice for hydropower and large dam projects the following areas need attention:
Clarify the principal design criteria Identify key risk mitigation measures (current and
planned) Economic evaluation Understand the long term sustainability of the
storage under high sediment inflows Clarify transboundary water management plans
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Principal Design CriteriaMust clearly indentify the principal design criteria for
the full project and for Stage 1 to align the project development work with international standards
The criteria are requested separately from HPM and TEAS consultants and should be based on the current and future plans
Including (but not limited to): Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) criteria Safe flood passage criteria Seismic design parameters Criteria for design of structures to accommodate regional
seismicity Operating criteria Sediment management
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Identifying Key Risk Mitigations
PoE must be convinced that mitigation actions are in place to address the key project risks
Mitigation measures must reduce the potential risk impacts to internationally acceptable levels
Risk rating = (consequence) x (likelihood)
Risk rating is assessed both before and after mitigation actions are in place
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Addressing Key Risk Mitigations (1)The PoE recommends that an initial workshop be
held in July to agree the key risk mitigation profile of the Rogun Dam project
The output would be a table identifying how the major risks are to be mitigated, for example purposes only:
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Risk item Category before Mitigation
Mitigation action
Category after Mitigation
Inability to pass PMF
Extreme Suitable spillway design
Low
Risk Categories
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Table of Risk Tolerance Categories
Consequence
Likelihood Insignificant Minor Moderate Major Extreme Catastrophic
Almost Certain Low Medium High Extreme Extreme Extreme
Likely Low Medium High Extreme Extreme Extreme
Possible Low Low Medium High Extreme Extreme
Unlikely Low Low Low Medium High Extreme
Rare Low Low Low Low Medium High
Extremely Rare Low Low Low Low Low Medium
Initial Risk Workshop
In advance of the workshop: the Key Actors will separately prepare their list of
top 10 or so risks and associated mitigation actions using an agreed format.
At the workshop: we will collectively agree the post mitigation or
residual risk impact category based on an agreed set of definition
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EconomicsUnderstanding the cost/benefit analysis of a
project is fundamental to sustainable practice and to ensure the effective allocation of capital
An initial cost/benefit analysis should be completed by the TEAS consultant, in collaboration with ESIA consultant by the end of June to guide decision making during the feasibility study, including:
an update of the cost estimate of the project an assessment of the market opportunities for
electricity sales recognition of the full benefits of Rogun
The initial analysis should be completed for both the full project and Stage 1
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Key Actor’s - Different Timeframes
Client – wishes to divert mid Nov 2011
TEAS Consultant – needs additional site investigations to complete full feasibility study (more than 1 year to complete)
World Bank/PoE – international standards must be met and residual risks acceptable (18 month study)
The question is – How can the different timeframes be managed?
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Client’s Timeframe
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Managing Different Timeframes
Could be done if Stage 1 is considered as a stand alone project meeting international standards with a normal design life (>100 years) to cover the possibility that stage 2 is delayed
TEAS – should prepare feasibility design for a stand alone Stage 1 dam to 1110m asl
Client - undertakes additional site investigations in accordance with specifications by TEAS consultant and with their oversight
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Stage 1 Stand Alone FeasibilityDuring a >100 year design life Stage 1 must:
safely pass PMFaccommodate maximum seismic eventbe economically sustainable together with Nurek, both facilities must sustainably
cope with the sediment load
Distance from Dam
Dam 18 km
1100
After 7 yrs
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Example of Dam Option at Stage 1
BUT must accommodate the salt wedge treatment
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Transboundary Water Management
The operational discharge regime should be explored by the TEAS in conjunction with ESIA Consultant for Rogun and the Vakhsh cascade to enable the ESIA consultant to address the transboundary water management issues and opportunities for joint benefits across riparian countries
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Long Term Sediment ManagementMitigation measures to address the long term
sediment impacts must be considered to demonstrate that dam safety can be assured in the very long term:
Spillway capability, dam height and seismicity are key issues
Reference: Palmieri et al (2003) “Reservoir Conservation – the Rescon Approach – economic and engineering evaluation of alternative strategies for managing sedimentation in storage reservoirs”
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Inception Phase - PoE Recommendations
1. HPM and TEAS consultants to produce principal design criteria
2. Hold Risk Mitigation management workshop
3. Undertake initial cost/benefit analysis (Full project and Stage 1)
4. Stage 1 design must have a design life >100 years
5. Consider mitigation measures to address the long term sediment impacts and ensure dam safety
6. Explore operational discharge regime to assist in addressing transboundary water management issues
7. Ensure co-ordination between the Key Actors by sharing fortnightly progress reports
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