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Robert C. Stroh, Sr., DirectorShimberg Center for Affordable HousingUniversity of Florida
14 September 2005
FAR Legislative Strategy Session
Shimberg Center
Established in 1988 – F.S. 1004.46Activated 1989Business lines
Teaching – Residential developmentHousing Policy & ProgramsHousing TechnologyFlorida Housing Data Clearinghouse
Contacts
Toll free 800-259-5705 Web site www.shimberg.ufl.edu
Housing data Bill O’Dell, Asst. [email protected]
Policy & Programs Anne Williamson, Asst. [email protected]
Housing technology Bob Stroh, [email protected]
Florida Housing Data
Florida Housing Data Clearinghouse began four years ago with joint funding from the Florida Housing Finance Corporation (FHFC) and the Shimberg Center.
The Clearinghouse provides a common reference point for the health of Florida’s housing stock.
The Clearinghouse makes fact-based decision-making possible relative to housing.
Housing in Florida
Two Florida markets:
Large urban & coastal counties
Small rural counties
Affordability factors:
Household incomes
Housing prices
Mortgage rates
Affordability Factors
Household Incomes
Housing Prices
Mortgage Rates
Regions: South / Central / North Florida
Examples: Palm Beach/Tampa-St.Pete/Duval
Median Household Incomes
Median Household Incomes
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
Palm Beach Hills/Pinell Duval
Hou
seho
ld in
com
e
1990
2000
2004
Household Incomes
Median income increased in all but five counties 1990-2000
Losers: Brevard (0%), Hardee (-1%), Hendry (-2%), Miami-Dade (-4%), and St. Lucie (-1%)
Big Winners: Dixie (19%), Holmes (22%), Jefferson (20%), St. John’s (28%)
Occupation/Employment Groups
Ability to find affordable housing
Occupation/Employment Groups Service workers: Mechanics, Secretaries, Bartenders, Retail,
Housekeeping, Receptionists, Security, Tellers, Waiters. Construction: Laborers, Electricians, Plumbers, Carpenters,
Painters, Truck drivers. Finance: Accountants, Financial planners, Insurance agents,
Credits analysts. Public Service: Firemen, Police, Postal carriers Managers: Engineering, Food service, Lodging, Construction
Single-family Home Choices
Wage as Portion of Qualifying Wage for SF Home
00.20.40.60.8
11.21.41.6
Service Constr Financial Pub Serv ManagerPort
ion
of Q
ualif
ying
Wag
e
WPB
Tampa/StP
Jax
2-bdrm Apartment Option
Wages as a Portion of Rent for 2-bdrm FMR
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Service Constr Financial Pub Serv ManagerPo
rtio
n o
f m
edia
n-w
age
wo
rker
WPB
Tampa/StP
Jax
Affordability Factors Household Incomes Housing Prices Mortgage Rates
Florida House Price Appreciation(adjusted for inflation)
Year InflationApprec
1971-80 8.11 1.41
1981-90 4.51 -1.50
1991-00 2.76 0.21
2001-03 1.94 6.81
2003-prelim 1.88 7.16
House Price Real Appreciation
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
71-'80 81-'90 91-'00 01-'03 03-prel.Ap
prec
iatio
n ra
te
Indexes
Indexes used to relate housing price to household income
Interpreting Indexes require caution: Index is misleading when wide variation present
Truncated data sources are misleading
Affordability Index
Affordability Index = (Median family income/Qualifying income) x 100
Higher index value > Easier to afford median priced home
Lower index value > Harder to afford median priced home
Index indicates relative changes within a county over time and relative affordability of housing across counties
Affordability Index Trends
Affordability Index
60708090
100110120130140
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Ind
ex
va
lue
WPB
Tampa-St Pete
Jax
Affordability Factors Household Incomes Housing Prices Mortgage Rates
Mortgage Rates
I’ll leave that up to you to deal with!
Housing Need Indicator
Low Income/Severely cost-burdened Households at or below 80% AMI Paying more than 50% for mortgage or rent
The Clearinghouse provides current estimates and projections for 2002-2025
Affordable Housing Market
Households: Cost burdened/Below 80% AMI
County 2005 2015 2025Palm Beach 32474 40685 50300Hills/Pinnellas 39441 46317 53941Duval 11468 13643 16096
Affordable Housing Need in Florida
Tenure 2005 2015 2025Owner 345,654 424,482 514,685Renter 381,824 439,371 500,122
Households below 80% AMI with Over 50% Paid for Housing - Florida
The Affordable Home Market
Major Challenges Finding qualified buyers – work with community-based
non-profit to screen applicants
Assembling up-front cost – SHIP money helps in many counties
Homebuyer Training – Work with non-profit or county extension office
Florida Housing Data
Visit the Clearinghouse web site…
www.flhousingdata.shimberg.ufl.edu
or
Contact the Shimberg Center at 800-259-5705
County/City Comparisons
Projected Construction Demand, 2025 Jefferson County 613
Lafayette County 862
Gulf County 925
Hamilton County 989
Orange County 236,720
Miami Dade County 279,813
Palm Beach County 286,862
Broward County 420,578
More Housing Data
HH head age HH Income HH Family size by age HH Tenure
----------------------------------
2000 Census data for consolidated plan
AHNA – for use in preparation of housing element
2000 Census for annual PHA plan for HUD
Housing by County/city Mortgage cost Cost burden Values Age/Condition/Size Projected SF/MF demand SF & Mfgr sales/yr Condo sales yr & price
Geographic Displays
2002 Median Single Family Sales Price
