Rob Keefe WHR National Real Estate Update

Rob KeefeWHR

National Real Estate Update

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“We are a specialized relocation company solely focused on advancing the lives of our clients’ employees by delivering high-touch relocation services that are customized to the culture and business practices of our clients”


Background• President of regional real estate brokerage • Real estate development company• Supervised title agency • President of mortgage broker/bank• Active in organized real estate

– WRA Chair (2012)– NAR Director/Taxation Committee

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Agenda

• National real estate market conditions

• Market issues

• Brokerage trends












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Market Issues






Top 20 Markets for Drop in Listing Count (Year over Year)


Inventory Compression• California down to 2.6 months inventory, a

40% drop from 2012

• Sacramento at 1.1 months inventory

• Seattle (King County) at 1.4 months inv a 50% drop from 2012

• Minneapolis at 3.0 months

• Washington DC less than 2 months



One cause of listing drop


20 MSA’s with highest average listing age


A tale of two cities

• Sacramento, CA

• Median listing age = 27 days

• Y/Y change in listing count = -67.2%

• Months inventory = 1.1

• Median listing age = 149 days

• Y/Y change in listing cout = -10.6%

• Months inventory = 5+

• Asheville, NC


Tight credit continues to weigh on market

• 37% of mortgages have >20% down payment• 2001-04 approx 40% of borrowers had FICO

>740• In 2012 this is over 50% overall, over 70% for

FNMA/FHLMC• Essentially no sub-prime, Alt-A market• NAR estimates deficit of 500-700k sales


Appraisals continue to kill deals


Other Federal issues

• Mortgage Interest Deductibility

• FHA solvency

• Short sale expediting

• Future of GSE’s

• General fiscal chaos and uncertainty


NAR’s View

• Upside … Credit Availability– Housing recovery so far even with tight credit– What happens if mortgage accessibility opens up?– Counter-cyclical housing policy … lower FHA premiums and lower GSE g-fees

• Downside … Washington Policy– QRM 20% down payment requirement?– Basel 3 … capital rule that punishes private mortgage with low down payment

and commercial loans– Trim mortgage interest deduction?– Capital gains tax on home sale?


Brokerage Developments











Summary• National market in recovery• Listing shortage in certain markets• Federal policies are putting damper on market• Appraisals continue to be challenging• Revolution in consumer-directed real estate data• Agents beginning to be put under microscope

Documents

Rob Keefe WHR National Real Estate Update