Road Network Risk Assessment and Index

Road Network Risk Assessment and Index

Zhang [email protected]

Road Network Risk Assessment Zhang Tiejun tj.zhang@rioh,cn

2

Founded in 1956. The only research institute directly under the Ministry of Transport, engaging in science and technical research in highway traffic and transportation field. Provide technology support for rapid, scientific and healthy development of highway traffic and transportation in China• Research area

– Highway engineering– Bridge engineering– Traffic engineering– ITS– Highway transportation– Moto vehicle application– Highway environment protection– Logistics


3

One department of RIOH, was founded in 1973. Mission:Improve safety of road traffic system and save lives• 5 platforms

-Road Safety Research Center（ RSRC), MOT-National Center for Quality Supervision & Inspection of Traffic Safety Facilities（ NSITS）-National Traffic Engineering Facilities (Highway) Standardization Technical

Committee（ NTSC）-Road Traffic Forensic Center, RIOH-Beijing Zhongjiao Hua’an Science & Technology Co., Ltd.

• 127professional staff. 12 senior engineers, 12 Ph.Ds, 50 Masters• Key Laboratory of Road Safety Technology, MOT

Road Safety Research Center


Outlines

2

Introduction1

RIOH Risk Assessment Research

3 Risk Assessment Model

4 Application Examples


Crash cause characteristic*

Human

Vehicl e

Road

10. 1% 5. 0%

0. 4%

1. 4%

79. 2%

1. 5%2. 4%

*RIOH， accident analysis report for mountainous highways， 2011.

1 Introduction


SUNflower Study (Sweden, UK, Netherlands)

Koornstra et al., 2002. SUNflower: A comparative study of the development of road safety in Sweden, the United Kingdom and the Netherlands.


a shared responsibility

Safe road

Safe userSafe vehicle

Speed

Road safe system

5 star user== 5 star vehicle== 5 star road


2 RIOH Risk Assessment Research1 Before 2003: Traffic safety audits, and safety influence

analysis of individual road or traffic factors.• Beginning of the performance of traffic safety audit.• Got some basic safety influence characteristics of

individual road and traffic factors , such as the safety influence of gradient.

2 2003 to 2008:”Road safety assessment in west area” and “Research of Highway Safety Manual in China” supported by MOT, systematic research of traffic safety complex factors was launched.

• Theory and methods of accident black spot identification.

• Accident prediction models of two-lane highways and four-lane undivided highways

• Safety management(Key segments selection, Safety analysis, countermeasure , Economic appraisal)


2 RIOH Risk Assessment Research

3 2009 to 2011： Through National Science and Technology Plan of Action, international cooperation, systematic research of risk assessment achievements was launched.

• Establishment of the basic performance process of risk assessment of road network.

• Build the rapid and dynamic traffic safety data collection system, the traffic safety basic database.

• Development of the core models which include 17 road factors basing on the traffic safety data in more than 7 provinces.

• Establishment of the database of traffic safety improvement countermeasures and effect results.

Road Network Risk Assessment Zhang Tiejun tj.zhang@rioh,cnPage10

措施路段类型寿命寿命期成本（元）寿命期效益（元）成本效益比

弯道安装混凝土护栏普通路段 10年 800000 7043686 8. 8 安装波形梁护栏普通路段 10年 560000 5602932 10. 01 安装警示墩全部路段 10年 600000 1341502 2. 24

安装弯坡警告标志普通路段 5年 2500 31545.51 12. 62

加宽路基村庄路段永久 8000000 3201675 0. 4 交叉路段永久 8000000 7099674 0. 89

施画路面中心线

普通路段 2年 6000 242651. 1 40. 44

村庄路段 2年 6000 543873. 2 90. 65 施画路面边缘线普通路段 2年 12000 75305.52 6. 28 施画路面边缘线村庄路段 2年 12000 82836.07 6. 9 施画人行横道线普通路段 2年 600 46784.79 77. 97

Survey System

Survey Data management

Risk assessment model

Risk Map system

Countermeasure and Economic appraisal model


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3 Risk Assessment ModelFour key Sub-models:

1. Traffic Data Collection and Management

2. Risk Scores Calculation and Risk Reason

Analysis

3. Countermeasure Database

4. Economic appraisal

Convenient Application software System


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Data collection and management

Accident data In recent five years

Traffic volume

Climate

Roadside

Operating speed

Road alignment

Traffic safety facility

Risk Assessment Model


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AADT1 …… AADTn

Intersection Bridge Tunnel Bridge&Tunnel Link

Volume

construction

Class

Road Network

Freeway Two-lane Four-laneundivided

Four-lanedivided

others

Assessment Segment Definition

Risk Assessment Model-Risk calculation


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Risk Scores Calculation based on road and traffic character

Focus on main road users



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Highway


Common Segment=

+ Village Segment

+ Intersection



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正面相撞33%

侧面相撞29%

刮撞行人9%

尾随相撞8%

翻车7%

同向刮擦4%

对向刮擦3%

撞固定物2%

其他2%碾压1%

撞静止车辆1%

坠车1%

失火0%

Focus on main crash type

Head on Crash

Rear-ended Crash

Roadside Crash



17Three-dimensional model of Crash Damage

Accident Rate severity

Traffic Volume

Total Crash Damage

Pi

Si


RPSCommon Segment

Village SegmentIntersection



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1 2

1 1 2 2

1 1 2 2

1 1 1 1 1 1

)( ...

...

...

( )

( )

n

nb n

fa b c d e

n n

i j i j i j

i j i j i j

b

b

RPS RPS RPSI RPSI RPSI

RPS P S P S P S

P S P S P SRPS

Base condition Risk Score

Factual condition Score Index

Accident Type

Safety Factors

• Accident rate index ( Pi ) – Curvature– Speed– Lane number– ……

• Severity Index( Si )– Speed – Roadside– ……

Pi>or<1Si>or<1



19



20

saving forgaving flexible

Countermeasure DatabaseRisk Assessment Model

CountermeasureSafety EffectCost


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Economic appraisal

Risk Assessment Model

Before Enforcement

① Optimization methods in operation theory

② Select the plan with maximum effect(Benefit/Cost)

After Enforcement

① Assess the factual effect of safety enforcement

② Renew countermeasure database


Define the

network

Collate data

Assign data to network

Produce maps

Quality review

Talk about results

4 Application examples


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Assessments in Anhui Province


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G206 – Class 2

S321 – ‘Class 2(a)’ (Upgraded Class 2)G205 – Class 1

X014 – Class 3 S320– Urban



Economic Analysis


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Investment Plan (20 years)Investment: RMB 180 mDeaths and serious injuries prevented: 2,054 (-23%)Benefit cost ratio:6.2 : 1

Roadside safetyShoulder sealing Pedestrian crossings。。

Leading countermeasures


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Actual risk-Overtaking risk


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Roadside hazard risk


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Pedestrian facilities can be improved


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Use of pedestrian facilities can be improved

Road network risk assessment and index

Thanks！！

Documents

Road Network Risk Assessment and Index