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RMA SAN DIEGO CHAPTER
COMMUNITY BANKING IN 2015
JANUARY 14, 2015
THE FINDLEY GROUPGary Steven Findley, Esq.
3808 E. La Palma Ave.Anaheim, California
92807(714)630-7136
INTRODUCTION & THOUGHTSCOMMUNITY BANKING IS CHANGING
Where Are We Now? Regulatory Hot Topics 2015 Predictions Landscape Next Five Years What Does It Take To Be
Exceptional? Local Bank Thoughts
WHERE ARE WE NOW? -2014 / 2015GENERAL COMMENTS
Performance Improving But Still Illusionary For Some - - Core Profitability Questionable
Dodd-Frank and Compliance a Burden - - Burden Index
Loan Growth Improving But Is Still a Challenge For Some - - Where Do You Find?
ALLL Earnings Driver in 2014 - - 2015? Strategic Direction For Some Still a Mystery Bank Number to Reduce Further Question of Viability Remains - - Who Is Last
Bank Standing? Further Separation Between Banks
Continues!
WHAT ARE REGULATORYHOT TOPICS?
Rising Interest Rates Cyber Security Compliance & Operations / BSA &
AML Further Economic Shock Strategic & Succession Planning Credit Losses in Areas of Rapid
Growth CRE Concentration Levels (Repeat?)
Hot Topic Radar
2015 PREDICTIONS
GDP 2% To 2.5% Interest Rates - Flat to 0.25 Enforcement Actions 20% Mergers - 14 Recapitalizations - 7 Branch / Subsidiary Sales - 8 Failures - 0 New Bank - 0 ?
WHAT WILL LANDSCAPE LOOK LIKE IN FIVE YEARS?
Further Reduction In Numbers Focus Remains On Efficiency Ratio and
NII Return Will Improve But Still Marginal
Due to Cost & NIM Compression Market Value Will Continue to Improve Regulatory Burden to Remain Still Capital Focused / But Some
Loosening
PERFORMANCE FOCUS NEXT 3+ YEARS (AFTER TAX) - 2015
ROAA 0.70 to 1.10
ROAE 6.00% to 12.00%
MV/BV 1.00 to 1.40
Numbers Depend Upon Size and Focus!
Merger Prices Will Improve Slightly
No Big Payday For Smaller Banks!
Price Improves With Size
Most Deals Will Be Among Smaller Size Entities –
Building Mass
Regulatory Burden Will Remain
- Impact On ROAA / ROAE
Significant (.30+ ROAA)
- While They Say It Doesn’t Apply
- - Often It Does
CHALLENGES TO BUILDING VALUE OVER NEXT FIVE YEARS
Succession - - Board & Management
Economic Changing Clientele Regulatory Other
WHAT ARE BOARDS TALKING ABOUT
Capital Plan Shareholder Value Human Capital Banking Succession Planning Technology Customer Needs Mergers & Acquisitions
WHAT DOES IT TAKE TO BE EXCEPTIONAL?
Starts With People - -
Aligning to a Common Vision Who
Always Looks to Get Better - -
Don’t Settle!
Investing in Human Capital
Depositors
Borrowers
Regulators
Staff
Management
Other Directors
Shareholder
Community
DIRECTORS
UNDERSTANDING EXPECTATIONS WHAT IS EXPECTED FROM PARTNERS?
LOCAL THOUGHTS
SAN DIEGO / IMPERIAL / SOUTH ORGANGE COUNTIES
9 BANKS
Question & Answer Period
Thank you – Open to comments, thoughts,
suggestions and questions.