BRAZIL

UNITED STATES

CANADA

MEXICO

ALGERIA

RUSSIA

KAZAKHSTAN

CHINA

AUSTRALIA

SAUDIARABIA

INDIA

ARGENTINA

PERU

BOLIVIA

VENEZUELA

MONGOLIA

TURKEY

LIBYA

ICELAND

EGYPT

JAPAN

SUDAN

PAKISTAN

OMAN

YEMEN

MADAGASCAR

INDONESIA

PHILIPPINES

ECUADOR

NIGER

CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC

KENYA

ETHIOPIA

ZAIRE(DRC)

TANZANIA

SOUTH AFRICA

LESOTHO

ANGOLA

MOROCCO

MAURITANIA

NAMIBIA

ZAMBIA

MOZAMBIQUE

GABON

IRAK

SRI LANKA

BANGLADESH

MYNMAR

VIETNAM

PAPUA NEW GUINEA

TIMOR-LESTE

NEW ZEALAND

SOUTH KOREA

CAMBODIA

LAOS

MALAYSIA

IRAN

NIGERIA

CHAD

MALI

TUNISIAISRAEL

JORDAN

SYRIALEBANON

DJIBOUTI

KUWAIT

TAIWAN

COLOMBIA

COSTA RICA

FRENCHGUIANA

PANAMA

DOMINICANREPUBLIC

HAITI

CUBA

GUATEMALAEL SALVADOR

NICARAGUA

HONDURAS

JAMAICA

FRENCHANTILLES

GUINEA

IVORY COASTSIERRA LEONE

LIBERIA GHANA TOGO

SAO TOME& PRINCIPE

GUIANASURINAM

RWANDABURUNDI

CYPRUS

BAHRAINQATAR

UNITEDARABEMIRATES

FRENCHPOYNESIA

PALESTINE

MALDIVES

HONG KONG

SINGAPORE

MAURITIUS

ILE DE LA RÉUNION

GROENLAND(DENMARK)

ERITREA

CAMEROON

UGANDA

BENIN

BURKINAFASO

CONGO

MALAWI

ZIMBABWE

SENEGAL

BOTSWANA

NEPAL

UZBEKISTAN

KYRGYZSTAN

TAJIKISTANTURKMENISTAN

GEORGIA

ARMENIA AZERBAIJAN

THAILAND

PARAGUAY

CHILE

URUGUAY

AFGHANISTAN

TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO

CAP VERT

HUNGARY

ITALY

SPAINPORTUGAL

FRANCE

GERMANYPOLAND

ROMANIA

BULGARIA

BOSNIE

GRÈCE

AUSTRIA

SLOVENIA

CZECHREPUBLIC

SLOVAKIA

SWITZERLAND

NORWAY

SWEDEN

FINLAND

UKRAINE

LITHUANIA

LATVIA

ESTONIA

BELARUS

CANADAIRELAND

UNITED KINGDOM

BELGIUM

COUNTRY RISK ASSESSMENT MAP • JANUARY 2016

A2

B

CC

B

D

B

A4

UPGRADE

C

160 COUNTRIES UNDER THE MAGNIFYING GLASSA UNIQUE METHODOLOGY• Macroeconomic expertise in assessing country risk

• Comprehension of the business environment

• Microeconomic data collected over 70 years of payment experience

RISK OF BUSINESSES DEFAULTING A1 A2 A3 A4 B C DVERY LOW LOW QUITE ACCEPTABLE ACCEPTABLE SIGNIFICANT HIGH VERY HIGH

• Oil price drop hampers Canada’s growth

• Risk of a housing bubble

• Economic recovery will largely depend on the US growth

• Agriculture production suffering from severe drought

• High unemployment and inflation weigh on household demand

• Political situation remains fragile

• Instability of the exchange rate

SOUTH AFRICAA2 B

• Economy is heavily reliant on oil and gas sector

• Large public deficit

• Private sector activity will suffer from further decline in consumer and business confidence

• Political uncertainties• High and rising

public debt

B B

• Investment, consumption and industrial activity are still declining

• Impact of the current political crisis may delay the budget adjustment process

• Investment slowed by fiscal adjustment linked to oil dependency

• Social and political situation might become more strained in the lead-up to the next legislative and presidential elections in 2016

C C

• The shilling against the US dollar may continue in 2016

• Difficult political environment: elections on the Zanzibar island have been cancelled due to fraud allegations

• Growth limited by political uncertainties

• Low level of nickel and cobalt prices, the leading sources of export earnings for the country, will limit exports

MADAGASCARC DTANZANIAGABONBRAZILBAHRAINALGERIACANADA

UNDER POSITIVE OR NEGATIVE WATCH

• Italy

• Ivory Coast

• Latvia

• Finland

• Hong Kong

• Japan

• Kazakhstan

• Namibia

• Taiwan

• Zambia

A4HUNGARY

• Solid growth (+3% in 2015 and +2.4% in 2016)

• Diversified exports

NEGATIVE WATCHPOSITIVE WATCH

DOWNGRADES