Richard Peto, Alan D Lopez, Jillian Boreham and …...2012/02/22 · Richard Peto, Alan D Lopez, Jillian Boreham and Michael Thun (Nov 2011 update) MORTALITY FROM SMOKING IN DEVELOPED

Richard Peto, Alan D Lopez, Jillian Boreham and Michael Thun (Nov 2011 update)

MORTALITY FROM SMOKING IN DEVELOPED COUNTRIES, 1950-2010 Tobacco-attributed mortality by disease, overall mortality rates and, where possible, trends.

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6 All Developed Countries 18 EU15: European Union –15 countries that joined the EU before 2004 30 EU12 recent: European Union – 12 countries that joined in 2004-2007 42 EU27: European Union – all 27 member states 54 Australia 66 Austria 78 Belarus 90 Belgium 102 Bulgaria 114 Canada 126 Caucasia: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia 138 Central Asia: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan 150 Croatia 156 Czech Republic 168 Denmark 180 Estonia 192 Finland 204 France 216 Germany 228 Greece 240 Hungary 252 Ireland 264 Italy 276 Japan 288 Latvia 300 Lithuania 312 Luxembourg 324 Macedonia, Former Yugoslav Republic of 330 Malta 342 Moldova, Republic of 354 Netherlands 366 New Zealand 378 Norway 390 Poland 402 Portugal 414 Romania 426 Russian Federation 438 Serbia and Montenegro 444 Slovakia 456 Slovenia 462 Spain 474 Sweden 486 Switzerland 498 Ukraine 510 United Kingdom 522 United States

No. of deaths Standardised rates Annual death rates / 100,000(Source: WHO) (defined overleaf) (zero denoted by −)

All ages

0−34

35−69 All ages 0−34 35−69 0−4 5−9 10−14 15−19 20−24 25−29 30−34ALL CAUSES M 6651182 401312 2734731 991.9 131.7 1157.2 212.9 22.3 25.8 82.8 152.2 194.9 231.3 F 6330968 177815 1421124 588.8 62.7 551.1 171.0 16.7 16.7 36.5 50.1 63.5 84.1Tuberculosis M 55982 9185 40172 8.6 2.9 14.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.6 6.9 10.0 F 15065 3285 7797 2.0 1.1 2.6 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.3 2.5 3.0HIV M 18326 4005 13921 2.8 1.3 4.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 3.2 4.3 F 6202 1873 4201 0.9 0.6 1.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 1.9Other infective M 69179 6370 25369 10.5 2.3 10.5 9.5 0.6 0.5 0.9 1.0 1.5 1.8 and parasitic F 73627 4789 16053 7.2 1.8 6.2 8.1 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.2ALL CANCER M 1524693 18804 683594 227.5 6.1 307.5 3.6 3.4 3.3 4.9 6.4 8.5 12.5 F 1223828 17166 488817 131.2 5.7 189.4 2.9 2.7 2.6 3.6 4.8 8.0 15.1Mouth and M 44561 350 31401 6.9 0.1 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 pharynx cancer F 13488 198 5935 1.5 0.1 2.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2Oesophagus cancer M 53360 117 30160 8.1 0.0 13.5 0.0 0.0 − 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 F 16075 56 5725 1.7 0.0 2.3 0.0 − 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1Stomach cancer M 118836 742 55240 17.7 0.2 24.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 F 76306 813 26645 7.9 0.3 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1Colorectal cancer M 162815 812 66588 24.1 0.3 30.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 F 152222 714 47932 15.1 0.2 19.0 0.0 − 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0Liver cancer M 65814 505 32010 9.9 0.2 14.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 F 32789 259 10169 3.3 0.1 4.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2Pancreas cancer M 78592 345 39188 11.8 0.1 17.6 0.0 − 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 F 75783 151 25068 7.7 0.0 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2Larynx cancer M 25754 37 16253 4.0 0.0 7.1 − 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 F 2888 11 1504 0.3 0.0 0.6 − − 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Lung cancer M 414339 745 204021 62.2 0.2 92.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.9 F 179335 487 75856 19.6 0.2 30.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6Malignant melanoma M 17074 625 9185 2.6 0.2 3.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 F 13324 499 6529 1.5 0.2 2.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6Female breast cancer F 192444 1763 103053 22.5 0.6 38.6 − − 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.1Cervix cancer F 29789 1346 19086 3.8 0.4 6.8 0.0 − − 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.9Other uterine cancer F 38829 234 17274 4.3 0.1 6.8 − 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3Ovarian cancer F 64566 721 32980 7.5 0.2 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7Prostate cancer M 130034 36 24554 18.6 0.0 12.2 0.0 − 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Bladder cancer M 53817 58 16317 7.8 0.0 7.7 0.0 0.0 − 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 F 19435 46 3788 1.7 0.0 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Other and ill−defined M 249694 8709 115952 37.5 2.8 50.7 1.9 1.9 1.7 2.4 3.2 3.9 4.8 cancer sites F 221764 5991 77247 23.1 2.0 30.1 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.8 1.9 2.3 3.4Hodgkin’s disease M 3247 444 1604 0.5 0.1 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 F 2590 393 979 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2Myeloma and non− M 58412 1452 23198 8.7 0.5 10.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.9 Hodgkin lymphomas F 53112 835 16334 5.3 0.3 6.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6Leukaemia M 48344 3827 17923 7.2 1.3 8.0 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.4 F 39089 2649 12713 4.2 0.9 4.9 0.9 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.1Diabetes M 108680 1527 40687 16.0 0.5 18.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.5 F 134265 1264 30353 12.3 0.4 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.0ALL VASCULAR M 2646866 31299 996968 389.1 9.9 437.6 3.9 0.8 1.2 3.6 8.5 18.4 32.9 DISEASE F 3066349 12915 487308 260.8 4.2 196.3 3.1 0.7 0.9 2.1 3.9 7.0 11.9Rheumatic heart M 10624 526 5499 1.6 0.2 2.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 disease and fever F 19586 458 6754 2.0 0.1 2.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4Hypertensive disease M 108145 822 40290 15.9 0.3 17.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 F 164800 505 27631 14.0 0.2 11.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5Ischaemic heart M 1301322 8459 537110 192.2 2.6 237.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.8 4.9 11.3 disease F 1266204 2175 214310 109.2 0.7 87.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.8Pulmonary embolism M 29991 649 12078 4.4 0.2 5.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 and other venous F 43816 772 10056 4.0 0.2 3.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7Cerebrovascular M 630440 4285 206811 91.9 1.4 93.9 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.3 4.4 disease F 909515 2502 143974 77.7 0.8 58.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.3 2.4Other vascular M 566344 16558 195180 83.0 5.3 81.4 3.0 0.5 0.8 2.3 5.0 10.0 15.3 disease F 662428 6503 84583 53.9 2.2 32.6 2.5 0.5 0.6 1.1 2.0 3.4 5.1Chronic obstructive M 241663 1570 63850 34.9 0.5 30.2 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.0 pulmonary disease F 175688 1110 33286 15.7 0.4 13.6 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7Other respiratory M 313855 18948 82796 46.3 6.7 34.1 28.5 1.5 1.1 1.5 2.4 4.7 7.4 disease F 285314 12800 31659 24.0 4.9 12.1 24.2 1.3 0.9 1.1 1.4 2.1 2.9Peptic ulcer M 21917 633 10942 3.3 0.2 4.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 F 16584 188 3627 1.5 0.1 1.4 0.0 − 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2Liver cirrhosis (incl. M 150924 7535 114718 23.5 2.4 45.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.7 5.0 8.9 some other digestive) F 85932 3819 56923 11.2 1.2 20.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.5 4.4Renal disease M 75583 1662 18016 10.9 0.5 8.0 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.1 F 87697 1557 13799 7.5 0.5 5.5 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9Pregnancy, birth F 2083 1454 625 0.3 0.5 0.2 − − − 0.3 0.9 1.0 1.1Congenital and M 52216 47133 3819 10.7 17.9 1.4 118.0 1.5 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.0 perinatal causes F 41358 35993 3614 8.7 14.4 1.3 95.0 1.3 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.8Ill−defined causes M 185427 20335 78348 28.0 6.7 30.3 13.9 0.7 0.8 2.8 6.6 10.3 12.1 F 234590 8248 26250 19.0 3.0 9.6 10.5 0.5 0.5 1.3 2.1 2.7 3.2Other medical causes M 468330 26833 159765 69.1 8.9 65.3 13.3 3.3 3.8 6.0 8.4 11.4 15.9 F 603705 16690 100524 52.2 5.8 38.2 10.4 2.9 3.1 4.0 5.3 6.5 8.2ALL NON− M 717541 205473 401766 110.7 65.1 145.7 20.5 10.0 13.1 59.5 110.9 121.2 120.3 MEDICAL CAUSES F 278681 54664 116288 34.3 18.2 40.6 15.4 6.1 6.6 20.8 25.4 25.7 27.8Road traffic M 97949 43975 42041 15.1 13.9 15.3 2.3 2.6 3.3 20.4 29.2 21.6 17.7 accidents F 37509 13918 15012 5.2 4.6 5.3 1.8 2.0 2.1 8.8 7.9 5.1 4.6Fire M 18315 3445 11854 2.9 1.1 4.4 1.5 0.6 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.7 2.2 F 8916 1792 3825 1.1 0.6 1.4 1.2 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8Suicide M 158572 43463 93974 24.4 13.6 34.2 − 0.1 2.0 12.7 24.6 27.5 28.3 F 43465 9494 24508 5.9 3.1 8.5 − 0.0 0.7 3.8 5.1 5.3 6.4Homicide M 53631 22968 28105 8.3 7.2 9.7 1.7 0.4 0.6 7.0 13.4 14.0 13.4 F 17941 6101 9257 2.6 2.0 3.1 1.5 0.5 0.5 1.8 3.0 3.4 3.4

623018 299573 273220 37328 37613 41377 45915 46065 45196 46078

660665 288778 290171 35433 35759 39446 43928 44468 44205 45539

POPULATION:(1000s; UN, 2004 revision)

M=maleF=female

Peto, Lopez et al2

ALL DEVELOPED COUNTRIES: 2005

Annual death rates / 100,0009th ICD/10th ICD categories(zero denoted by −)

35−39 40−44 45−49 50−54 55−59 60−64 65−69 70−74 75−79 80+/NKALL CAUSES M 001−999/A00−Y89291.5 446.6 677.0 961.6 1256.3 1715.9 2751.3 3933.6 6041.0 12438.0 F 116.8 182.0 282.1 413.1 589.7 845.5 1428.4 2270.4 3942.7 10254.6Tuberculosis M 010−018, 137/12.1 16.1 19.1 18.4 13.3 9.7 10.3 8.7 11.5 21.5 F A15−A19, B902.9 3.2 3.3 2.9 2.1 1.6 2.3 2.7 4.4 7.1HIV M 279.5, 279.6/B20−B246.1 7.8 6.6 5.0 3.4 2.3 1.5 1.2 0.7 0.3 F 2.2 2.5 1.9 1.3 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2Other infective M Rest of 001−139/rest of2.4 4.1 6.8 10.3 12.4 15.7 22.0 37.8 59.3 144.0 and parasitic F A00−B99 excl A33,A341.4 2.2 3.4 5.2 6.8 9.8 14.4 25.8 41.3 116.1ALL CANCER M 140−208/C00−C9721.7 47.6 106.4 211.2 356.9 556.2 852.2 1193.4 1591.5 2321.9 F 28.7 54.2 96.4 153.3 228.1 321.2 443.7 602.6 796.8 1179.2Mouth and M 140−149/C00−C140.9 2.7 7.5 14.6 19.3 21.8 25.9 24.6 24.7 27.6 pharynx cancer F 0.3 0.6 1.4 2.2 3.1 3.8 4.4 5.8 7.8 12.7Oesophagus cancer M 150/C150.5 1.5 4.6 10.4 18.0 26.1 33.1 39.3 46.8 54.6 F 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.6 2.7 4.5 5.9 8.2 11.6 17.2Stomach cancer M 151/C162.2 4.3 9.1 17.2 27.3 41.1 72.5 97.8 126.1 163.2 F 1.8 2.9 5.1 7.6 11.0 16.2 28.4 39.3 55.4 80.8Colorectal cancer M 153, 154/C18−C212.0 4.2 8.8 17.5 33.4 56.1 91.6 133.4 183.7 277.8 F 1.8 3.9 7.4 13.3 21.7 32.6 52.4 74.3 107.1 187.2Liver cancer M 155.0/C22 excl C2210.7 1.8 4.7 10.4 16.9 26.5 40.3 61.0 68.9 70.9 F 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.6 3.9 7.0 12.8 21.2 27.5 32.5Pancreas cancer M 157/C251.0 2.9 6.0 12.2 21.2 32.9 47.0 62.2 76.9 101.0 F 0.6 1.4 3.1 6.3 11.3 19.2 28.7 41.2 57.1 83.4Larynx cancer M 161/C320.2 1.0 3.1 6.6 9.8 12.2 16.7 17.8 18.2 21.0 F 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.7 1.9Lung cancer M 162/C33, C342.8 10.0 28.8 61.7 108.4 175.5 262.9 351.0 439.5 487.3 F 1.8 5.6 12.8 22.3 36.6 57.6 73.0 103.1 126.9 145.1Malignant melanoma M 172/C431.0 1.6 2.4 3.4 4.5 6.0 8.0 10.4 13.9 20.8 F 0.9 1.3 1.8 2.4 2.8 3.5 4.2 5.4 7.0 10.3Female breast cancer F 174/C507.8 15.8 26.1 38.5 52.2 60.5 69.3 78.0 94.4 142.3Cervix cancer F 180/C533.4 5.2 6.8 7.8 7.7 7.2 9.3 10.5 11.6 12.2Other uterine cancer F 179, 182/C54, C550.7 1.5 2.8 4.9 8.3 11.8 17.5 20.8 24.5 31.9Ovarian cancer F 183/C56, C570−C5741.5 3.3 7.0 11.8 16.2 21.7 27.3 32.1 36.9 43.3Prostate cancer M 185/C610.0 0.2 0.9 3.2 9.4 22.3 49.2 95.4 171.7 415.9Bladder cancer M 188/C670.2 0.6 1.6 3.7 7.4 14.1 26.3 42.4 68.5 127.2 F 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.6 2.7 4.7 8.6 14.2 31.9Other and ill−defined M Rest of 140−199/6.9 12.0 21.9 38.7 61.2 87.8 126.6 176.6 235.6 367.2 cancer sites F rest of C00−C80, C975.1 8.1 14.1 22.9 35.6 51.6 73.3 105.5 146.8 242.3Hodgkin’s disease M 201/C810.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.3 1.8 2.5 3.1 F 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.8 1.0 1.6 1.8Myeloma and non− M 200, 202−203/1.3 2.3 3.6 6.7 11.3 18.9 28.5 44.7 64.3 102.6 Hodgkin lymphomas F C82−C90, C960.8 1.3 2.2 4.0 7.2 12.2 17.9 28.2 39.4 61.2Leukaemia M 204−208/C91−C951.7 2.0 3.0 4.6 8.2 13.9 22.5 35.0 50.2 81.7 F 1.3 1.7 2.5 3.5 5.3 7.7 12.5 17.9 25.5 41.4Diabetes M 250/E10−E142.3 4.0 7.2 11.9 20.3 32.2 48.8 78.0 114.4 229.9 F 1.4 2.2 3.9 7.0 13.0 21.3 36.7 59.6 91.7 208.8ALL VASCULAR M 390−459/I00−I9957.8 115.4 209.3 331.4 462.5 669.2 1217.5 1756.2 2848.5 5732.0 DISEASE F 20.5 37.8 68.4 112.9 182.5 298.9 652.9 1131.8 2199.3 5599.1Rheumatic heart M 390−398/I00−I090.6 1.1 1.7 2.1 2.7 3.1 4.5 5.3 7.9 16.1 disease and fever F 0.5 0.8 1.5 2.1 2.8 3.8 6.6 8.8 11.8 23.2Hypertensive disease M 401−405/I10−I152.1 4.2 8.4 13.6 20.0 27.8 47.6 70.8 108.7 250.5 F 1.0 2.0 4.1 7.1 11.0 17.3 34.8 60.3 101.5 310.3Ischaemic heart M 410−414/I20−I2523.9 54.8 108.6 179.7 255.5 371.9 666.1 892.1 1394.8 2501.7 disease F 5.7 12.0 23.7 43.1 78.1 139.3 312.2 516.2 984.1 2179.1Pulmonary embolism M 415.1, 451−453/1.1 1.7 2.6 4.0 5.7 8.3 13.1 19.8 30.0 60.1 and other venous F I26, I80−I821.0 1.5 2.2 2.7 4.0 5.9 10.0 16.4 28.5 70.1Cerebrovascular M 430−438/I60−I698.2 17.5 33.9 60.3 92.0 144.2 301.1 464.4 775.3 1430.3 disease F 4.6 9.5 18.8 33.2 53.1 86.0 203.2 360.7 710.3 1600.4Other vascular M Rest of 390−459/21.8 36.1 54.3 71.9 86.6 113.8 185.1 303.9 531.9 1473.3 disease F rest of I00−I997.7 12.0 18.0 24.8 33.4 46.6 85.9 169.4 363.1 1415.9Chronic obstructive M 490−496/1.5 3.2 6.9 14.0 25.9 52.9 107.0 186.4 315.0 625.6 pulmonary disease F J40−J47, J671.0 1.8 3.7 6.6 12.8 25.6 43.6 80.4 135.0 281.9Other respiratory M Rest of 460−519/10.2 16.8 24.6 31.6 35.8 45.3 74.2 138.5 272.4 993.7 disease F rest of J00−J983.7 5.4 7.0 9.5 12.3 17.7 29.2 59.2 121.3 632.1Peptic ulcer M 531−533/K25−K271.1 2.0 3.2 4.4 5.3 6.1 9.6 12.2 18.7 34.7 F 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.5 2.1 3.6 5.8 10.3 28.2Liver cirrhosis (incl. M 571/K70, K7414.5 25.4 39.6 52.2 56.5 60.1 67.9 63.2 57.5 47.9 some other digestive) F 6.8 11.5 17.2 23.6 27.6 26.8 31.3 31.3 32.6 29.0Renal disease M 580−590/N00−N191.5 2.1 3.4 5.1 8.2 13.0 22.4 42.5 79.0 245.4 F 1.1 1.5 2.3 3.4 5.3 8.5 16.1 28.3 52.3 168.4Pregnancy, birth F 630−676/A34,O00−O990.8 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Congenital and M 740−779/A33,1.0 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.9 1.8 1.5 1.7 2.0 4.2 perinatal causes F P00−P96, Q00−Q990.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.3 1.4 1.7 3.1Ill−defined causes M 780−799/R00−R9914.3 20.9 28.2 34.1 34.4 35.0 45.2 57.0 99.1 419.5 F 4.1 5.6 7.5 9.3 10.6 12.2 18.2 30.9 77.2 559.1Other medical causes M Rest of 001−799/22.0 32.7 46.8 60.8 71.6 91.2 132.2 218.3 397.9 1230.8 F rest of A00−R9911.2 16.1 23.5 31.3 42.1 57.1 85.9 152.5 293.5 1210.7ALL NON− M E800−E999/V01−Y89122.8 147.5 167.5 169.7 147.9 125.3 139.0 138.4 173.6 386.5 MEDICAL CAUSES F 29.9 36.3 41.7 44.1 42.5 40.6 48.8 57.8 85.3 231.6Road traffic M E810−E819, E826−E829/15.9 15.7 15.8 15.6 14.6 14.3 15.1 19.0 23.4 31.0 accidents F part of V01−V99, Y8504.4 4.9 5.1 4.9 5.0 5.7 7.0 8.7 10.7 11.9Fire M E890−E899/X00−X092.8 3.9 5.0 5.1 4.6 4.2 5.2 4.5 5.1 9.1 F 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.9 5.5Suicide M E950−E959/X60−X8429.1 34.0 37.7 38.8 36.0 31.3 32.7 35.5 39.8 54.0 F 6.8 7.5 8.6 9.1 9.0 9.4 9.5 10.0 11.4 13.1Homicide M E960−E969/11.7 12.9 12.8 11.3 8.1 5.3 5.7 3.7 3.8 8.5 F X85−X99, Y00−Y093.5 3.7 3.6 3.4 2.8 2.0 2.8 2.7 3.4 3.3

45962 47644 45889 42045 37095 28470 26114 20296 15723 14206

45993 48399 47512 44463 39929 31939 31935 26682 24039 30995

POPULATION(1000s; UN, 2004 revision)

MF

All Developed Countries 3

2005: ALL DEVELOPED COUNTRIES

Male smoking−attributed deaths (Sm.) and total deaths (Total)ALL

CAUSESALL

CANCERLung

cancerUpper aero−digestive ca.(see below)

Othercancer

COPD

Otherrespiratory

Vasculardisease

Cirrhosis &some otherdigestive

Othermedical

Non−medical

20000−34 Sm. − − − − − − − − − − −

424826 20671 843 561 19267 1870 23220 28263 4459 126803 219540 Total

35−69 Sm. 805099 309386 198456 50469 60461 58262 24165 302503 − 110783 −2704517 708180 216422 80008 411750 75765 78055 994732 96908 357402 393475 Total

(30%) (44%) (92%) (63%) (15%) (77%) (31%) (30%) (31%)

70+ Sm. 633340 261057 175964 23937 61156 125513 20748 176500 − 49522 −3322202 755800 195481 42369 517950 178105 199342 1599668 26433 463197 99657 Total

(19%) (35%) (90%) (56%) (12%) (70%) (10%) (11%) (11%)

Any Sm. 1438439 570443 374420 74406 121617 183775 44913 479003 − 160305 −6451545 1484651 412746 122938 948967 255740 300617 2622663 127800 947402 712672age Total

(22%) (38%) (91%) (61%) (13%) (72%) (15%) (18%) (17%)

20050−34 Sm. − − − − − − − − − − −

401312 18804 745 504 17555 1570 18948 31299 7535 117683 205473 Total

35−69 Sm. 745221 282851 184049 46365 52437 47070 24351 280240 − 110709 −2734731 683594 204021 77814 401759 63850 82796 996968 114718 391039 401766 Total

(27%) (41%) (90%) (60%) (13%) (74%) (29%) (28%) (28%)

70+ Sm. 634181 275200 186938 24788 63474 121823 20740 161553 − 54865 −3515139 822295 209573 45357 567365 176243 212111 1618599 28671 546918 110302 Total

(18%) (33%) (89%) (55%) (11%) (69%) (10%) (10%) (10%)

Any Sm. 1379402 558051 370987 71153 115911 168893 45091 441793 − 165574 −6651182 1524693 414339 123675 986679 241663 313855 2646866 150924 1055640 717541age Total

(21%) (37%) (90%) (58%) (12%) (70%) (14%) (17%) (16%)

To be conservative, no deaths before age 35, and none from liver cirrhosis or non−medical causes, were attributed to smoking

Male death rates used for calculations: ICD codes as on previous pageAll ages 0−34 35−69 35−39 40−44 45−49 50−54 55−59 60−64 65−69 70−74 75−79 80+/NK

POPULATION (1000s; UN, 2004 revision)2000 613090 305845 261813 48302 46933 43486 39050 30498 29449 24096 20445 13326 116612005 623018 299573 273220 45962 47644 45889 42045 37095 28470 26114 20296 15723 14206NUMBER OF DEATHS (Source: WHO)All causes2000 6451545 424826 2704517 147898 217880 290882 353082 380751 610673 703351 898611 841328 15822632005 6651182 401312 2734731 133959 212788 310648 404300 466024 488528 718484 798373 949828 1766938Lung cancer2000 412746 843 216422 1850 6163 14566 26074 36986 60070 70713 80026 60424 550312005 414339 745 204021 1289 4774 13207 25934 40221 49954 68642 71247 69099 69227ANNUAL DEATH RATE / 100,000 (*The rates for the age groups 0−34 and 35−69 are the means of seven five−yearly rates,

but the all−ages rates are standardised to the conventional "European" age distribution)All causes 2000 1059.8* 139.7* 1226.4* 306.2 464.2 668.9 904.2 1248.4 2073.7 2919.0 4395.2 6313.6 13568.72005 991.9* 131.7* 1157.2* 291.5 446.6 677.0 961.6 1256.3 1715.9 2751.3 3933.6 6041.0 12438.0All cancer 2000 243.8* 6.6* 339.6* 25.5 57.0 122.5 227.5 384.9 631.0 928.7 1276.6 1657.2 2349.52005 227.5* 6.1* 307.5* 21.7 47.6 106.4 211.2 356.9 556.2 852.2 1193.4 1591.5 2321.9Lung cancer 2000 67.8* 0.3* 105.1* 3.8 13.1 33.5 66.8 121.3 204.0 293.5 391.4 453.4 471.92005 62.2* 0.2* 92.9* 2.8 10.0 28.8 61.7 108.4 175.5 262.9 351.0 439.5 487.3Upper aerodigestive cancer (mouth, oesophagus, pharynx and larynx) 2000 20.5* 0.2* 36.9* 2.0 7.3 18.8 34.0 49.7 67.9 79.0 88.2 92.6 102.92005 19.0* 0.2* 33.8* 1.6 5.2 15.2 31.6 47.0 60.1 75.7 81.8 89.7 103.2Other cancer 2000 155.5* 6.2* 197.5* 19.7 36.6 70.3 126.7 213.9 359.1 556.3 797.0 1111.1 1774.62005 146.3* 5.7* 180.8* 17.3 32.3 62.5 118.0 201.5 320.6 513.6 760.6 1062.3 1731.4Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) 2000 41.6* 0.6* 38.3* 2.0 3.8 7.8 14.7 31.6 75.4 132.9 235.3 359.9 703.62005 34.9* 0.5* 30.2* 1.5 3.2 6.9 14.0 25.9 52.9 107.0 186.4 315.0 625.6Other respiratory disease 2000 50.3* 8.3* 35.0* 9.5 15.3 21.6 26.6 33.0 55.0 84.0 150.7 303.3 1098.72005 46.3* 6.7* 34.1* 10.2 16.8 24.6 31.6 35.8 45.3 74.2 138.5 272.4 993.7Vascular disease 2000 429.8* 8.9* 470.3* 55.5 115.8 202.5 309.2 456.0 876.1 1276.9 2073.9 2978.3 6678.32005 389.1* 9.9* 437.6* 57.8 115.4 209.3 331.4 462.5 669.2 1217.5 1756.2 2848.5 5732.0Liver cirrhosis and some other digestive 2000 21.2* 1.4* 41.3* 11.4 22.1 33.8 41.3 50.2 64.1 66.5 63.4 57.2 50.22005 23.5* 2.4* 45.2* 14.5 25.4 39.6 52.2 56.5 60.1 67.9 63.2 57.5 47.9Other medical causes 2000 158.3* 44.2* 152.6* 66.6 91.2 114.8 130.1 153.5 215.5 296.4 449.6 791.2 2279.72005 159.9* 41.1* 157.0* 62.9 90.8 122.6 151.5 170.8 207.1 293.5 457.4 782.5 2330.3All non−medical causes 2000 114.8* 69.6* 149.2* 135.7 159.0 165.8 154.8 139.1 156.7 133.6 145.8 166.5 408.82005 110.7* 65.1* 145.7* 122.8 147.5 167.5 169.7 147.9 125.3 139.0 138.4 173.6 386.5

Rates and calculations for some earlier years are in Peto, Lopez et al, 1994

Peto, Lopez et al4

ALL DEVELOPED COUNTRIES: 2000, 2005

Female smoking−attributed deaths (Sm.) and total deaths (Total)ALL

CAUSESALL

CANCERLung


Othercancer

COPD

Otherrespiratory

Vasculardisease

Cirrhosis &some otherdigestive

Othermedical

Non−medical

20000−34 Sm. − − − − − − − − − − −

190007 18847 543 313 17991 1216 16993 12747 2213 80918 57073 Total

35−69 Sm. 155341 59538 48060 4127 7351 18902 3906 46966 − 26029 −1404335 486850 69721 12872 404257 35635 31533 502939 43120 193358 110900 Total

(11%) (12%) (69%) (32%) (2%) (53%) (12%) (9%) (13%)

70+ Sm. 348432 87739 66779 7209 13751 77226 14959 120735 − 47773 −4618771 685896 91718 18923 575255 138539 235072 2623319 25014 808244 102687 Total

(8%) (13%) (73%) (38%) (2%) (56%) (6%) (5%) (6%)

Any Sm. 503773 147277 114839 11336 21102 96128 18865 167701 − 73802 −6213113 1191593 161982 32108 997503 175390 283598 3139005 70347 1082520 270660age Total

(8%) (12%) (71%) (35%) (2%) (55%) (7%) (5%) (7%)

20050−34 Sm. − − − − − − − − − − −

177815 17166 487 265 16414 1110 12800 12915 3819 75341 54664 Total

35−69 Sm. 155978 64302 52624 4318 7360 18646 3807 41259 − 27964 −1421124 488817 75856 13164 399797 33286 31659 487308 56923 206843 116288 Total

(11%) (13%) (69%) (33%) (2%) (56%) (12%) (8%) (14%)

70+ Sm. 369783 97724 75435 7367 14922 83615 15166 113149 − 60129 −4732029 717845 102992 19022 595831 141292 240855 2566126 25190 932992 107729 Total

(8%) (14%) (73%) (39%) (3%) (59%) (6%) (4%) (6%)

Any Sm. 525761 162026 128059 11685 22282 102261 18973 154408 − 88093 −6330968 1223828 179335 32451 1012042 175688 285314 3066349 85932 1215176 278681age Total

(8%) (13%) (71%) (36%) (2%) (58%) (7%) (5%) (7%)


Female death rates used for calculationsAll ages 0−34 35−69 35−39 40−44 45−49 50−54 55−59 60−64 65−69 70−74 75−79 80+/NK


but the all−ages rates are standardised to the conventional "European" age distribution)All causes 2000 637.6* 67.0* 581.1* 117.8 183.1 276.0 402.9 590.0 976.8 1520.7 2552.6 4170.7 11457.62005 588.8* 62.7* 551.1* 116.8 182.0 282.1 413.1 589.7 845.5 1428.4 2270.4 3942.7 10254.6All cancer 2000 138.4* 6.2* 200.1* 32.3 60.6 103.1 162.4 237.3 337.1 467.9 635.4 840.7 1230.42005 131.2* 5.7* 189.4* 28.7 54.2 96.4 153.3 228.1 321.2 443.7 602.6 796.8 1179.2Lung cancer 2000 19.0* 0.2* 29.3* 2.1 6.0 12.0 21.5 37.0 50.4 76.4 101.3 125.2 135.72005 19.6* 0.2* 30.0* 1.8 5.6 12.8 22.3 36.6 57.6 73.0 103.1 126.9 145.1Upper aerodigestive cancer (mouth, oesophagus, pharynx and larynx) 2000 3.7* 0.1* 5.3* 0.5 1.3 2.8 4.4 6.4 9.0 12.9 16.9 21.7 35.92005 3.5* 0.1* 5.1* 0.6 1.1 2.5 4.3 6.5 9.2 11.6 15.4 21.1 31.7Other cancer 2000 115.7* 5.9* 165.4* 29.6 53.3 88.4 136.5 193.8 277.7 378.7 517.2 693.8 1058.92005 108.1* 5.4* 154.3* 26.3 47.6 81.1 126.7 185.0 254.4 359.2 484.1 648.8 1002.4Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) 2000 17.4* 0.4* 15.5* 1.2 2.0 3.9 7.1 14.5 27.2 52.8 93.7 149.9 303.62005 15.7* 0.4* 13.6* 1.0 1.8 3.7 6.6 12.8 25.6 43.6 80.4 135.0 281.9Other respiratory disease 2000 27.4* 6.5* 12.9* 3.5 4.9 6.6 8.7 12.4 19.6 34.8 64.7 143.3 713.82005 24.0* 4.9* 12.1* 3.7 5.4 7.0 9.5 12.3 17.7 29.2 59.2 121.3 632.1Vascular disease 2000 297.6* 4.2* 216.6* 19.2 37.2 65.6 110.3 184.8 400.0 699.3 1357.7 2334.8 6637.42005 260.8* 4.2* 196.3* 20.5 37.8 68.4 112.9 182.5 298.9 652.9 1131.8 2199.3 5599.1Liver cirrhosis and some other digestive 2000 9.3* 0.7* 17.0* 4.7 8.4 12.4 16.0 21.3 27.0 29.1 32.6 34.5 31.32005 11.2* 1.2* 20.7* 6.8 11.5 17.2 23.6 27.6 26.8 31.3 31.3 32.6 29.0Other medical causes 2000 112.1* 30.0* 78.1* 26.3 34.1 44.4 57.5 78.8 118.0 187.2 304.8 577.0 2291.92005 111.6* 28.0* 78.5* 26.2 35.0 47.6 63.0 83.9 114.7 178.8 307.2 572.5 2301.6All non−medical causes 2000 35.4* 19.0* 40.8* 30.6 35.9 40.0 41.0 40.8 48.0 49.5 63.6 90.4 249.22005 34.3* 18.2* 40.6* 29.9 36.3 41.7 44.1 42.5 40.6 48.8 57.8 85.3 231.6



2000, 2005: ALL DEVELOPED COUNTRIES

Relative importance of deaths in MIDDLE age (35−69) in the year 2005

Age Deaths attributed to SMOKING Mean years lostrange /total deaths (millions) PER DEATH FROM(years) Male Female SMOKING

0−34 /− 0.4 /− 0.2 −

35−69 /0.7 2.7 /0.2 1.4 23 years

70+ /0.6 3.5 /0.4 4.7 8 years

All ages /1.4 6.7 /0.5 6.3 15 years

Deaths, by cause, attributed to SMOKING / total deaths (thousands) in the year 2005

Male (by age) Female (by age)Cause 0−34 35−69 70+ All 0−34 35−69 70+ All

Lung Cancer /− 0.7 /184 204 /187 210 /371 414 /− 0.5 /53 76 /75 103 /128 179

All Cancer /− 19 /283 684 /275 822 /558 1525 /− 17 /64 489 /98 718 /162 1224 (41%) (33%) (13%) (14%)

Vascular /− 31 /280 997 /162 1619 /442 2647 /− 13 /41 487 /113 2566 /154 3066

Respiratory /− 21 /71 147 /143 388 /214 556 /− 14 /22 65 /99 382 /121 461

All Other /− 331 /111 908 /55 686 /166 1924 /− 134 /28 380 /60 1066 /88 1580

All Causes /− 401 /745 2735 /634 3515 /1379 6651 /− 178 /156 1421 /370 4732 /526 6331 (27%) (18%) (11%) ( 8%)

Cancer deaths, and all deaths,attributed to SMOKING / total deaths (millions) in the year 2005

Cause Male Female Male + Female

All Cancer /0.6 1.5 /0.2 1.2 /0.7 2.7(37%) (13%) (26%)

All Causes /1.4 6.7 /0.5 6.3 /1.9 13(21%) ( 8%) (15%)

Peto, Lopez et al6

ALL DEVELOPED COUNTRIES: 2005

10.1% 1955

MALE

8.3% 1960

7.4% 1965

7.2% 1970

6.7% 1975

6.4% 1980

5.9% 1985

5.5% 1990

5.6% 1995

4.8% 2000

4.5% 2005*

Populationrisk ofdying atages 0−34

8 42%

10 41%

11 41%

12 41%

12 40%

13 39%

13 37%

12 36%

13 38%

11 35%

9* 33%*

Population risk of a 35−year−old dying at ages 35−69from smoking (shaded) or from any cause (shaded and white)

*eg, at year 2005 male death rates, out of 100 men aged 35, 33 would die before age 70 (with 9 of these deaths attributed to smoking)

Note: Most of those killed by smoking would otherwise have survived beyond age 70,but a minority (shaded area to right of dotted line) would have died by 70 anyway

7.6% 1955

FEMALE

5.9% 1960

4.8% 1965

4.3% 1970

3.9% 1975

3.6% 1980

3.4% 1985

2.9% 1990

2.8% 1995

2.3% 2000

2.2% 2005

0.4 28%

0.6 25%

0.9 24%

1.2 24%

1.5 22%

1.9 22%

2.2 21%

2.2 19%

2.2 20%

2.1 18%

2.0 18%


1955-2005: ALL DEVELOPED COUNTRIES

Numbers of deaths attributed to smoking / total deaths (thousands)

Male (by age) Female (by age)Year 0−34 35−69 70+ All 0−34 35−69 70+ All

1950 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

1955 /− 879 /359 1820 /91 1644 /450 4343 /− 653 /21 1356 /7.0 2019 /28 4028 (20%) ( 6%) ( 2%) (0.3%)

1960 /− 737 /451 1841 /140 1808 /591 4386 /− 517 /29 1297 /10 2192 /40 4006 (25%) ( 8%) ( 2%) (0.5%)

1965 /− 663 /568 2072 /217 2007 /785 4742 /− 426 /50 1376 /20 2480 /70 4282 (27%) (11%) ( 4%) (0.8%)

1970 /− 637 /662 2268 /316 2202 /978 5107 /− 372 /75 1441 /40 2804 /115 4617 (29%) (14%) ( 5%) ( 1%)

1975 /− 605 /704 2308 /420 2432 /1124 5344 /− 340 /97 1425 /73 3132 /170 4897 (31%) (17%) ( 7%) ( 2%)

1980 /− 597 /758 2346 /492 2682 /1250 5624 /− 312 /123 1399 /112 3501 /234 5211 (32%) (18%) ( 9%) ( 3%)

1985 /− 555 /801 2324 /552 2918 /1352 5797 /− 299 /143 1356 /170 3941 /313 5595 (34%) (19%) (11%) ( 4%)

1990 /− 521 /863 2482 /546 2862 /1409 5865 /− 258 /160 1393 /235 4023 /395 5674 (35%) (19%) (11%) ( 6%)

1995 /− 518 /947 2926 /594 3102 /1541 6546 /− 238 /164 1515 /302 4417 /466 6171 (32%) (19%) (11%) ( 7%)

2000 /− 425 /805 2705 /633 3322 /1438 6452 /− 190 /155 1404 /348 4619 /504 6213 (30%) (19%) (11%) ( 8%)

2005 /− 401 /745 2735 /634 3515 /1379 6651 /− 178 /156 1421 /370 4732 /526 6331 (27%) (18%) (11%) ( 8%)

50−year total* (M=millions), mid−1960 to mid−2010: 77/ 564M

1960−2010 by age & sex:

/− 27M /38 124M

(30%) /24 140M

(17%) /62 291M /− 15M /6.1 71M

( 9%) /9.4 187M

( 5%) /15 273M

*Estimated as 10 times the sum of the annual numbers for 1965, 1975, 1985, 1995 & 2005

Peto, Lopez et al8

ALL DEVELOPED COUNTRIES: 1950-2010

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Year

An

nu

al s

mo

kin

g d

eath

s (1

000s

) Male Female

450

591

785

978

1124

1250

13521409

1541

14381379

28 4070

115170

234

313

395466

504 526

Smoking−attributed deaths:thousands per year (all ages)

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Year

An

nu

al s

mo

kin

g d

eath

s (1

000s

) Male Female

359

451

568

662704

758801

863

947

805

745

21 2950

7597

123143 160

164 155 156

Smoking−attributed deaths:thousands per year at ages 35−69 only

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

10

20

30

%

Year

Male Female

10

13

17

19

2122

23 24 2422

21

0.7 1.01.6

2.53.5

4.55.6

7.0 7.68.1 8.3

Smoking−attributed deaths:% of all deaths (all ages)

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

10

20

30

40

%

Year

Male Female

20

25

2729

3132

34 3532

30

27

1.6 2.33.6

5.26.8

8.811 11 11 11 11

Smoking−attributed deaths:% of all deaths at ages 35−69 only



ALL−CAUSE mortality rates attributed and not attributed to smoking

11.6

5.5

1.0

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20100

2020

15

5

10*

Year:

Sta

nd

ard

ised

† d

eath

rat

e/10

00

ALL−CAUSE mortality

ages 35−69 & 0−34

Male 35−69

Female 35−69

M and F 0−34

* An annual rate of 10 per 1000 implies that 30% of 35−year−olds will die before age 70

† Mean of 7 age−specific rates, ages 35−69 (or ages 0−34)

8.4

3.2

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20100

15

5

10

Year:

Sta

nd

ard

ised

† d

eath

rat

e/10

00


ages 35−69: MALE

Not attributed:

Attributed: to smoking

4.9

0.6

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20100

10

5

Year:

Sta

nd

ard

ised

† d

eath

rat

e/10

00

ALL−CAUSE mortalityages 35−69: FEMALE

Not attributed:


8.4

4.9

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20100

15

5

10

Year: S

tan

dar

dis

ed†

dea

th r

ate/

1000

ALL−CAUSE mortality ages 35−69

NOT ATTRIBUTED TO SMOKING

Male

Female

3.2

0.6

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20100

10

5

Year:

Sta

nd

ard

ised

† d

eath

rat

e/10

00

ALL−CAUSE mortality ages 35−69ATTRIBUTED TO SMOKING

Male

Female

MALE all−cause mortality (annual rate/1000, by age) FEMALE all−cause mortality (annual rate/1000, by age)

0−34 35−69 70−79 0−34 35−69 70−79

YearAttributed tosmoking? Yes YesYes Yes YesYesNo NoNo No NoNo

1950 ... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...1955 2.96 0.1512.4 9.154.69 0.2670.4 55.9− −3.05 2.261960 3.56 0.1911.3 8.186.60 0.3267.8 52.3− −2.48 1.741965 4.10 0.2811.0 7.669.31 0.5665.6 49.9− −2.19 1.411970 4.47 0.4010.7 7.2912.3 0.8863.4 48.1− −2.13 1.261975 4.51 0.4910.1 6.7114.3 1.3060.2 45.3− −1.98 1.151980 4.63 0.629.66 6.3114.3 1.6656.0 40.9− −1.89 1.041985 4.57 0.718.81 5.8714.3 2.2053.3 38.8− −1.73 0.981990 4.42 0.718.24 5.4013.2 2.8446.5 33.9− −1.61 0.841995 4.51 0.709.23 5.6712.6 3.1443.8 32.1− −1.65 0.812000 3.70 0.668.56 5.1511.6 3.0241.9 30.6− −1.40 0.672005 3.19 0.628.38 4.8910.2 2.7839.7 28.3− −1.32 0.63

0−34 and 35−69 = means of 7 age−specific rates; 70−79 = mean of 2 rates (70−74 & 75−79)

Peto, Lopez et al10


ALL CANCER mortality rates attributed and not attributed to smoking

0.9

0.3

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20100

2

1

Year:

Sta

nd

ard

ised

†

dea

th r

ate/

1000

LUNG CANCER mortalityages 35−69

Male Female

3.1

1.9

0.06

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20100

6

1

2

3

5

4

Year:

Sta

nd

ard

ised

† d

eath

rat

e/10

00

ALL CANCER mortalityages 35−69 & 0−34

Male 35−69

Female 35−69

M and F 0−34


1.8

1.3

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20100

4

1

2

3

Year:

Sta

nd

ard

ised

† d

eath

rat

e/10

00

ALL CANCER mortalityages 35−69: MALE

Not attributed:


1.6

0.3

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20100

4

1

2

3

Year:

Sta

nd

ard

ised

† d

eath

rat

e/10

00

ALL CANCER mortalityages 35−69: FEMALE

Not attributed:


1.81.6

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20100

4

1

2

3

Year:

Sta

nd

ard

ised

† d

eath

rat

e/10

00

ALL CANCER mortality ages 35−69NOT ATTRIBUTED TO SMOKING

Male

Female

1.3

0.3

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20100

4

1

2

3

Year:

Sta

nd

ard

ised

† d

eath

rat

e/10

00ALL CANCER mortality ages 35−69

ATTRIBUTED TO SMOKING

Male

Female

MALE cancer mortality (annual rate/1000, by age) FEMALE cancer mortality (annual rate/1000, by age)

0−34 35−69 70−79 0−34 35−69 70−79

YearAttributed tosmoking? Yes YesYes Yes YesYesNo NoNo No NoNo

1950 ... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...1955 ... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...1960 ... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...1965 1.38 0.072.18 2.283.15 0.1010.0 7.55− −0.11 0.101970 1.50 0.102.11 2.184.03 0.179.80 7.25− −0.11 0.091975 1.62 0.142.06 2.125.03 0.289.82 7.19− −0.10 0.091980 1.75 0.192.02 2.055.50 0.429.54 6.82− −0.09 0.081985 1.84 0.231.99 1.995.84 0.639.62 6.88− −0.09 0.081990 1.90 0.252.00 1.955.86 0.909.52 6.75− −0.08 0.071995 1.76 0.251.99 1.875.76 1.049.39 6.56− −0.07 0.072000 1.48 0.251.91 1.755.45 1.039.22 6.35− −0.07 0.062005 1.27 0.251.80 1.645.00 1.048.92 5.96− −0.06 0.06

0−34 and 35−69 = means of 7 age−specific rates; 70−79 = mean of 2 rates (70−74 & 75−79)



0.028

0.018

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010Year:

0

0.05

0.10

Lung cancer mortalityper 1000 aged 35−39

Male Female

1.08

0.37

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010Year:

0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5


Male Female

4.4

1.3

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010Year:

0

2.5

5.0

7.5


Male Female

0.016

0.006

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010Year:

0

0.05

0.10

Upper aero−digestive cancermortality per 1000 aged 35−39

Male Female

0.47

0.07

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010Year:

0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5


Male Female

0.9

0.2

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010Year:

0

2.5

5.0

7.5


Male Female

0.17

0.26

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010Year:

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

Other cancer mortalityper 1000 aged 35−39

Male Female

2.0 1.8

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010Year:

0

2

4

6


Male Female

10.6

6.5

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010Year:

0

5

10

15

20

25


Male Female

0.22

0.29

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010Year:

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

All cancer mortalityper 1000 aged 35−39

Male Female

* Annual mortality per 1000: 1965, 1975, 1985, 1990, 1995, 2000 and 2005

3.6

2.3

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010Year:

0

2

4

6


Male Female

15.9

8.0

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010Year:

0

5

10

15

20

25


Male Female

Mortality* trends at selected ages: 35−39, 55−59 & 75−79

Peto, Lopez et al12


0.58

0.21

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010Year:

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Vascular mortalityper 1000 aged 35−39

Male Female

4.6

1.8

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010Year:

0

3

6

9

12


Male Female

28

22

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010Year:

0

20

40

60


Male Female

0.12

0.05

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010Year:

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

Respiratory mortalityper 1000 aged 35−39

Male Female

0.6

0.3

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010Year:

0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5


Male Female

5.9

2.6

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010Year:

0

5

10

15


Male Female

1.7

0.9

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010Year:

0

1

2

3

All medical causes:mortality per 1000 aged 35−39

Male Female

11.1

5.5

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010Year:

0

5

10

15

20

25


Male Female

59

39

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010Year:

0

25

50

75

100


Male Female

2.9

1.2

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010Year:

0

1

2

3

All causes: mortalityper 1000 aged 35−39

Male Female

* Annual mortality per 1000: 1965, 1975, 1985, 1990, 1995, 2000 and 2005

12.6

5.9

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010Year:

0

10

20

30


Male Female

60

39

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010Year:

0

25

50

75

100


Male Female

Mortality* trends at selected ages: 35−39, 55−59 & 75−79



No. of deaths Standardised rates Annual death rates / 100,000(Source: WHO) (defined overleaf) (zero denoted by −)

All ages

0−34

35−69 All ages 0−34 35−69 0−4 5−9 10−14 15−19 20−24 25−29 30−34ALL CAUSES M 1795463 52293 543250 736.9 62.3 716.3 108.7 11.8 14.4 50.4 76.4 79.5 94.7 F 1858601 25158 288794 453.7 32.3 360.8 88.6 9.5 10.5 20.7 26.5 29.2 41.0Tuberculosis M 2065 60 638 0.8 0.1 0.8 0.0 0.0 − − 0.0 0.2 0.2 F 1414 45 211 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1HIV M 4078 521 3385 2.0 0.6 3.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.5 F 1102 241 814 0.5 0.3 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.1Other infective M 21361 672 6377 8.8 0.8 8.3 2.7 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.6 1.0 and parasitic F 24783 480 3650 6.2 0.6 4.6 2.0 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.7ALL CANCER M 541165 4410 210436 225.3 5.1 284.4 3.0 3.4 2.9 4.3 5.4 7.0 10.0 F 424587 3869 144400 130.0 4.6 180.2 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.9 4.0 6.2 12.0Mouth and M 14586 71 9984 6.7 0.1 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 pharynx cancer F 4671 40 2106 1.6 0.0 2.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1Oesophagus cancer M 17894 31 9508 7.8 0.0 12.6 − − − − 0.0 0.1 0.1 F 6240 6 1966 1.8 0.0 2.5 − − − 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Stomach cancer M 28273 122 10375 11.7 0.1 14.0 0.0 − − 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 F 19323 126 4964 5.4 0.1 6.2 0.0 0.0 − 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5Colorectal cancer M 59940 160 20638 24.5 0.2 28.3 0.0 − 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 F 53768 141 13248 14.7 0.2 16.9 0.0 − 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7Liver cancer M 19762 105 8253 8.3 0.1 11.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 F 8354 37 1933 2.3 0.0 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1Pancreas cancer M 26851 70 12086 11.3 0.1 16.4 − − 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 F 27190 28 7708 7.8 0.0 9.9 0.0 − − 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1Larynx cancer M 7928 6 4321 3.5 0.0 5.7 − 0.0 − − − 0.0 0.0 F 850 − 397 0.3 − 0.5 − − − − − − −Lung cancer M 140933 160 63607 59.6 0.2 86.5 0.0 − 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 F 53048 110 22817 17.8 0.1 28.5 − 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5Malignant melanoma M 5854 172 3025 2.6 0.2 3.8 − − − 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 F 4800 168 2116 1.6 0.2 2.5 0.0 − − 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7Female breast cancer F 73605 516 33737 24.9 0.6 41.1 − − 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 3.1Cervix cancer F 5690 189 3143 2.1 0.2 3.6 0.0 − − 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9Other uterine cancer F 12516 33 4168 3.8 0.0 5.3 − − − 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2Ovarian cancer F 22868 141 9956 7.6 0.2 12.5 − − 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5Prostate cancer M 56649 5 8722 21.7 0.0 12.7 − − 0.0 − 0.0 − 0.0Bladder cancer M 22422 10 5445 8.9 0.0 7.6 0.0 0.0 − − − 0.0 0.0 F 8290 11 1367 2.0 0.0 1.8 − 0.0 0.0 − 0.0 0.0 0.0Other and ill−defined M 99281 2182 40476 41.9 2.6 53.8 1.8 2.1 1.8 2.1 2.7 3.2 4.4 cancer sites F 86930 1476 25277 25.6 1.8 31.7 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.8 2.0 2.9Hodgkin’s disease M 1224 123 541 0.5 0.1 0.7 0.0 0.0 − 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 F 946 117 314 0.3 0.1 0.4 − 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3Myeloma and non− M 21994 334 7987 9.1 0.4 10.8 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.7 Hodgkin lymphomas F 20948 179 5551 6.0 0.2 7.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4Leukaemia M 17574 859 5468 7.3 1.0 7.4 0.7 1.0 0.8 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.0 F 14550 551 3632 4.2 0.7 4.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.9Diabetes M 38686 185 10315 15.4 0.2 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 F 52787 94 5434 11.9 0.1 7.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3ALL VASCULAR M 612357 3059 143369 242.2 3.5 193.4 2.3 0.4 0.9 2.2 3.4 5.5 9.5 DISEASE F 754351 1614 55893 158.9 1.9 71.7 1.9 0.5 0.7 1.2 2.0 2.8 4.4Rheumatic heart M 2894 32 800 1.2 0.0 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 disease and fever F 6803 23 1002 1.7 0.0 1.3 0.0 − 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1Hypertensive disease M 26676 49 4903 10.4 0.1 6.7 0.0 − 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 F 52861 24 2610 10.5 0.0 3.4 0.0 0.0 − 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1Ischaemic heart M 268192 692 76070 107.6 0.7 102.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.2 3.0 disease F 241613 177 20416 51.9 0.2 26.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7Pulmonary embolism M 13825 176 4517 5.7 0.2 5.9 0.0 − − 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 and other venous F 21339 200 3454 5.2 0.2 4.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6Cerebrovascular M 133359 598 22811 51.6 0.7 31.0 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.6 1.0 1.8 disease F 202345 407 14507 42.6 0.5 18.4 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.7 1.3Other vascular M 167411 1512 34268 65.7 1.7 46.0 1.6 0.2 0.6 1.4 1.8 2.7 3.8 disease F 229390 783 13904 46.9 1.0 17.8 1.5 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.3 1.6Chronic obstructive M 77455 202 13260 29.9 0.2 18.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 pulmonary disease F 52664 144 7188 12.5 0.2 9.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3Other respiratory M 89506 920 13158 34.5 1.1 17.8 2.5 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.8 disease F 105507 583 6502 21.7 0.8 8.3 2.0 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 1.0Peptic ulcer M 5672 33 1723 2.3 0.0 2.3 − 0.0 − 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 F 6361 15 746 1.4 0.0 0.9 0.0 − 0.0 0.0 − 0.0 0.1Liver cirrhosis M 35366 361 25000 16.3 0.4 31.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.1 F 17400 157 9860 6.6 0.2 11.8 0.0 − 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8Renal disease M 20858 84 3042 8.0 0.1 4.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 F 24232 70 2061 5.2 0.1 2.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1Pregnancy, birth F 191 122 69 0.1 0.1 0.1 − − − 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5Congenital and M 9965 8168 1347 7.1 11.2 1.6 72.4 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.0 perinatal causes F 8259 6392 1254 5.9 9.3 1.4 59.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.9Ill−defined causes M 51811 3211 17292 22.0 3.9 21.5 9.8 0.5 0.5 1.9 3.7 4.8 5.9 F 69804 1557 6723 15.5 2.0 8.2 7.3 0.4 0.4 0.9 1.5 1.8 2.0Other medical causes M 177038 5529 45175 71.7 6.5 58.0 9.0 2.1 2.9 5.3 6.8 8.3 11.2 F 250934 3284 27451 57.1 4.2 34.2 8.1 2.2 2.6 3.1 3.8 4.2 5.3ALL NON− M 108080 24878 48733 50.6 28.5 56.3 6.6 3.6 5.4 33.8 53.6 48.4 48.2 MEDICAL CAUSES F 64225 6491 16538 19.8 7.9 19.1 4.7 2.3 2.8 10.3 12.8 10.8 11.5Road traffic M 23938 10768 9624 12.1 12.5 10.8 1.4 1.4 2.6 19.9 26.9 19.4 15.7 accidents F 7564 2626 2817 3.4 3.2 3.2 1.0 0.8 1.5 6.1 6.1 4.0 3.0Fire M 1460 255 712 0.7 0.3 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 F 955 121 320 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2Suicide M 31026 6041 18252 14.8 6.7 20.8 − 0.0 0.7 5.6 11.8 13.2 15.9 F 10986 1692 6659 4.8 2.0 7.6 − 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.3 3.5 4.7Homicide M 2013 792 1081 1.0 0.9 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.8 1.4 1.6 1.5 F 997 362 471 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.7

188535 81906 87967 10261 10473 10887 11613 12089 12665 13919

197103 78502 89576 9718 9941 10359 11040 11582 12239 13623

POPULATION:(1000s; UN, 2004 revision)

M=maleF=female

*Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden and United Kingdom

Peto, Lopez et al14

EU15 (European Union - 15 countries*): 2005

Annual death rates / 100,0009th ICD/10th ICD categories(zero denoted by −)

35−39 40−44 45−49 50−54 55−59 60−64 65−69 70−74 75−79 80+/NKALL CAUSES M 001−999/A00−Y89126.5 197.5 324.6 517.2 780.9 1177.9 1889.5 3094.1 5115.1 12361.8 F 64.3 106.0 175.7 267.0 396.4 583.3 932.8 1595.9 2931.6 9867.2Tuberculosis M 010−018, 137/0.2 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.6 3.5 6.7 13.2 F A15−A19, B900.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.6 3.6 6.1HIV M 279.5, 279.6/B20−B244.7 6.8 5.0 3.0 2.2 1.8 1.3 1.3 0.9 0.3 F 1.4 1.8 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2Other infective M Rest of 001−139/rest of1.6 3.0 4.4 6.4 8.4 12.8 21.8 36.5 62.0 147.0 and parasitic F A00−B99 excl A33,A340.8 1.2 1.9 3.1 4.4 7.2 13.5 25.4 45.3 124.5ALL CANCER M 140−208/C00−C9718.6 41.5 95.0 190.5 329.9 517.7 797.6 1187.6 1671.1 2594.9 F 25.0 48.6 87.4 142.1 218.0 307.7 432.7 597.1 830.3 1311.1Mouth and M 140−149/C00−C140.9 2.9 7.6 14.9 19.1 20.6 23.6 22.6 23.2 27.7 pharynx cancer F 0.2 0.6 1.6 2.6 3.8 4.6 4.5 5.8 7.4 11.9Oesophagus cancer M 150/C150.5 1.6 4.8 10.6 17.6 23.9 29.5 35.9 43.2 58.5 F 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.9 3.2 5.0 6.2 8.3 12.6 21.1Stomach cancer M 151/C161.2 2.8 5.2 9.7 14.7 23.3 40.9 64.1 92.5 140.6 F 1.2 1.8 3.1 4.4 6.4 10.0 16.7 25.8 38.8 74.1Colorectal cancer M 153, 154/C18−C211.5 3.4 7.4 15.7 30.9 53.3 85.9 136.0 197.0 323.7 F 1.5 3.2 5.8 11.4 19.6 29.1 47.4 70.7 107.5 214.1Liver cancer M 155.0/C22 excl C2210.4 1.2 3.4 6.5 12.3 20.4 35.1 51.0 64.0 71.9 F 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.4 4.0 8.3 14.5 21.1 28.4Pancreas cancer M 157/C250.8 2.4 5.1 10.7 19.0 30.4 46.4 62.4 78.9 100.8 F 0.4 1.3 2.8 5.9 11.0 19.5 28.5 42.9 62.2 89.0Larynx cancer M 161/C320.1 0.8 2.4 5.4 8.2 10.3 12.7 16.1 17.1 26.0 F 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.4 2.1Lung cancer M 162/C33, C342.4 8.8 27.3 57.2 103.7 164.3 241.4 339.7 441.8 484.3 F 1.8 6.0 14.6 25.0 37.1 49.9 65.3 86.3 109.8 113.1Malignant melanoma M 172/C431.0 1.6 2.3 3.2 4.5 6.2 7.9 11.0 13.0 19.9 F 1.0 1.6 1.8 2.4 2.7 3.6 4.6 5.4 7.5 12.0Female breast cancer F 174/C507.9 16.1 25.7 38.5 55.2 66.7 77.6 91.9 112.8 185.2Cervix cancer F 180/C531.8 2.8 3.5 4.1 4.0 4.0 5.3 6.3 7.5 9.9Other uterine cancer F 179, 182/C54, C550.5 1.0 2.0 3.2 5.9 9.6 15.0 20.2 24.8 37.9Ovarian cancer F 183/C56, C570−C5741.2 2.4 5.8 9.8 15.4 22.7 30.3 35.7 43.2 51.0Prostate cancer M 185/C610.0 0.1 0.8 3.1 9.7 22.6 52.4 107.1 202.5 518.0Bladder cancer M 188/C670.2 0.5 1.5 3.8 7.5 14.0 25.9 46.3 81.2 161.9 F 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.7 2.9 5.6 9.7 16.6 39.7Other and ill−defined M Rest of 140−199/6.5 11.2 21.3 38.8 63.6 95.0 140.7 206.8 285.8 453.6 cancer sites F rest of C00−C80, C975.0 7.8 13.8 22.8 36.6 55.3 80.9 118.8 175.5 297.9Hodgkin’s disease M 201/C810.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.1 1.4 2.1 3.2 4.0 F 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.7 2.3Myeloma and non− M 200, 202−203/1.2 2.3 3.5 6.4 11.6 19.3 31.1 48.8 71.0 109.0 Hodgkin lymphomas F C82−C90, C960.7 1.3 2.2 4.0 7.1 12.8 21.7 33.0 49.3 69.6Leukaemia M 204−208/C91−C951.5 1.7 2.2 3.9 6.8 12.9 22.7 37.6 56.6 95.0 F 1.2 1.4 1.9 2.8 4.8 7.0 12.9 19.7 30.4 51.8Diabetes M 250/E10−E141.0 2.4 4.5 8.1 13.7 24.5 44.4 79.7 127.6 273.0 F 0.7 1.0 1.7 3.2 6.5 11.5 24.9 54.4 101.6 289.3ALL VASCULAR M 390−459/I00−I9919.0 38.1 72.5 124.4 201.2 325.0 573.4 1021.4 1862.9 5175.3 DISEASE F 7.8 14.4 26.4 40.0 63.8 115.2 234.5 504.6 1120.4 4758.8Rheumatic heart M 390−398/I00−I090.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.2 1.9 3.1 5.7 9.7 19.8 disease and fever F 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.1 2.0 4.9 8.6 15.7 31.6Hypertensive disease M 401−405/I10−I150.5 0.9 2.2 3.8 7.3 11.6 20.4 39.2 73.9 266.5 F 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.7 2.8 6.0 12.0 28.7 66.5 358.9Ischaemic heart M 410−414/I20−I257.9 18.6 37.9 68.5 110.8 176.4 298.3 490.3 832.5 1959.4 disease F 1.6 3.9 8.2 12.8 22.9 45.7 90.5 186.9 393.7 1461.9Pulmonary embolism M 415.1, 451−453/1.0 1.8 2.8 4.2 6.6 9.7 15.6 24.9 40.4 90.7 and other venous F I26, I80−I820.9 1.4 2.3 3.0 4.3 6.4 12.0 20.0 38.4 108.3Cerebrovascular M 430−438/I60−I693.2 6.3 10.9 17.4 28.9 50.5 100.1 210.3 428.9 1274.5 disease F 2.7 4.5 8.1 11.9 17.0 27.6 57.0 133.5 312.8 1273.7Other vascular M Rest of 390−459/6.2 10.3 18.5 29.8 46.4 74.9 135.8 251.1 477.7 1564.4 disease F rest of I00−I992.4 4.1 6.7 9.9 15.6 27.6 58.1 126.8 293.3 1524.5Chronic obstructive M 490−496/0.7 1.4 2.8 7.1 15.3 34.1 70.2 142.8 278.1 684.0 pulmonary disease F J40−J47, J670.3 0.9 1.9 4.5 9.0 17.5 31.7 59.8 109.3 263.3Other respiratory M Rest of 460−519/2.6 3.8 6.4 10.1 17.1 28.7 55.8 120.0 251.7 952.2 disease F rest of J00−J981.3 1.9 3.0 5.1 7.6 13.1 26.1 56.6 130.8 702.6Peptic ulcer M 531−533/K25−K270.2 0.6 1.1 1.9 2.6 3.7 5.8 9.0 17.0 41.5 F 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.7 2.7 5.2 11.1 35.9Liver cirrhosis M 571/K70, K745.9 13.2 23.9 34.4 40.6 47.3 53.5 56.6 54.5 48.5 F 2.5 5.0 9.8 13.2 15.3 17.2 19.9 23.5 27.2 25.7Renal disease M 580−590/N00−N190.4 0.7 1.2 2.0 3.9 7.0 14.1 30.4 62.6 217.3 F 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.4 2.7 4.1 8.7 18.9 39.4 146.0Pregnancy, birth F 630−676/A34,O00−O990.3 0.1 0.0 − − − − − − −Congenital and M 740−779/A33,0.9 1.1 1.3 1.8 2.4 2.0 1.7 2.0 1.8 3.6 perinatal causes F P00−P96, Q00−Q990.9 0.9 1.2 1.7 2.2 1.9 1.4 1.5 2.0 2.7Ill−defined causes M 780−799/R00−R997.9 11.0 15.8 19.9 24.6 29.6 41.6 61.4 98.1 386.2 F 2.6 3.7 5.6 7.1 8.7 11.4 18.1 32.4 63.9 454.0Other medical causes M Rest of 001−799/15.1 22.9 34.4 48.2 61.3 85.4 138.9 247.9 482.0 1467.3 F rest of A00−R997.6 10.9 17.2 25.2 36.7 51.9 89.7 174.5 375.5 1477.1ALL NON− M E800−E999/V01−Y8947.7 50.7 55.5 58.7 56.9 57.1 67.9 93.8 138.1 357.7 MEDICAL CAUSES F 12.5 14.7 17.3 19.0 20.1 22.4 27.6 40.3 71.3 269.7Road traffic M E810−E819, E826−E829/12.7 11.2 11.0 10.6 9.9 9.6 10.8 15.0 18.6 24.8 accidents F part of V01−V99, Y8502.6 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.4 4.5 6.1 7.7 8.0Fire M E890−E899/X00−X090.5 0.6 0.8 1.1 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.7 2.0 4.6 F 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.3 2.9Suicide M E950−E959/X60−X8417.9 21.0 22.8 22.6 21.0 18.9 21.3 26.5 32.6 52.9 F 5.5 6.3 8.0 8.4 8.1 8.4 8.2 7.6 8.2 10.8Homicide M E960−E969/1.5 1.4 1.4 1.5 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 F X85−X99, Y00−Y090.6 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6

15301 15255 13753 12523 11902 10114 9118 7443 5757 5462

15044 15096 13751 12724 12163 10644 10153 9086 8187 11752

POPULATION(1000s; UN, 2004 revision)

MF

EU15 15

2005: EU15 (European Union - 15 countries)

Male smoking−attributed deaths (Sm.) and total deaths (Total)ALL

CAUSESALL

CANCERLung


Othercancer

COPD

Otherrespiratory

Vasculardisease

Livercirrhosis

Othermedical

Non−medical

20000−34 Sm. − − − − − − − − − − −

65742 5236 184 146 4906 284 1169 3659 538 23014 31842 Total

35−69 Sm. 170541 92846 60975 15103 16768 11092 3543 40752 − 22308 −583571 219046 66985 25010 127051 15193 15119 171528 26712 86080 49893 Total

(29%) (42%) (91%) (60%) (13%) (73%) (23%) (24%) (26%)

70+ Sm. 221681 97480 64295 8799 24386 44955 8255 51724 − 19267 −1158335 298579 71508 15607 211464 63201 79987 488619 10119 186999 30831 Total

(19%) (33%) (90%) (56%) (12%) (71%) (10%) (11%) (10%)

Any Sm. 392222 190326 125270 23902 41154 56047 11798 92476 − 41575 −1807648 522861 138677 40763 343421 78678 96275 663806 37369 296093 112566age Total

(22%) (36%) (90%) (59%) (12%) (71%) (12%) (14%) (14%)

20050−34 Sm. − − − − − − − − − − −

52293 4410 160 108 4142 202 920 3059 361 18463 24878 Total

35−69 Sm. 150285 85470 57222 13633 14615 9296 2915 31246 − 21358 −543250 210436 63607 23813 123016 13260 13158 143369 25000 89294 48733 Total

(28%) (41%) (90%) (57%) (12%) (70%) (22%) (22%) (24%)

70+ Sm. 222373 103403 68877 9025 25501 44567 7153 45611 − 21639 −1199920 326319 77166 16487 232666 63993 75428 465929 10005 223777 34469 Total

(19%) (32%) (89%) (55%) (11%) (70%) (9%) (10%) (10%)

Any Sm. 372658 188873 126099 22658 40116 53863 10068 76857 − 42997 −1795463 541165 140933 40408 359824 77455 89506 612357 35366 331534 108080age Total

(21%) (35%) (89%) (56%) (11%) (70%) (11%) (13%) (13%)


Male death rates used for calculations: ICD codes as on previous pageAll ages 0−34 35−69 35−39 40−44 45−49 50−54 55−59 60−64 65−69 70−74 75−79 80+/NK


but the all−ages rates are standardised to the conventional "European" age distribution)All causes 2000 833.3* 75.1* 819.0* 150.7 233.3 365.1 550.1 853.6 1364.6 2215.8 3545.0 5798.6 13692.72005 736.9* 62.3* 716.3* 126.5 197.5 324.6 517.2 780.9 1177.9 1889.5 3094.1 5115.1 12361.8All cancer 2000 241.3* 5.8* 313.8* 22.0 51.8 112.0 207.4 351.9 566.2 885.1 1273.1 1754.1 2642.32005 225.3* 5.1* 284.4* 18.6 41.5 95.0 190.5 329.9 517.7 797.6 1187.6 1671.1 2594.9Lung cancer 2000 64.3* 0.2* 96.6* 3.2 12.3 31.4 62.7 112.1 177.9 276.8 380.2 457.6 466.52005 59.6* 0.2* 86.5* 2.4 8.8 27.3 57.2 103.7 164.3 241.4 339.7 441.8 484.3Upper aerodigestive cancer (mouth, oesophagus, pharynx and larynx) 2000 19.7* 0.2* 34.5* 2.1 7.9 19.6 33.4 47.1 58.7 72.9 81.9 93.3 111.32005 17.9* 0.1* 31.1* 1.5 5.3 14.8 30.9 44.9 54.8 65.8 74.6 83.5 112.2Other cancer 2000 157.3* 5.5* 182.6* 16.7 31.6 61.0 111.3 192.8 329.6 535.4 810.9 1203.3 2064.52005 147.7* 4.8* 166.8* 14.7 27.4 52.9 102.4 181.3 298.5 490.4 773.3 1145.8 1998.4Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) 2000 34.8* 0.3* 22.9* 0.8 1.8 3.8 7.9 18.3 40.2 87.2 180.8 333.2 747.92005 29.9* 0.2* 18.8* 0.7 1.4 2.8 7.1 15.3 34.1 70.2 142.8 278.1 684.0Other respiratory disease 2000 43.1* 1.3* 21.8* 3.2 5.0 7.2 11.7 18.5 35.9 71.4 147.2 321.3 1196.52005 34.5* 1.1* 17.8* 2.6 3.8 6.4 10.1 17.1 28.7 55.8 120.0 251.7 952.2Vascular disease 2000 299.5* 3.9* 247.1* 21.4 46.8 87.6 147.2 245.2 426.6 754.6 1318.8 2329.1 6199.62005 242.2* 3.5* 193.4* 19.0 38.1 72.5 124.4 201.2 325.0 573.4 1021.4 1862.9 5175.3Liver cirrhosis 2000 18.4* 0.5* 35.6* 7.7 16.4 26.7 33.8 43.9 57.2 63.7 62.7 60.4 56.72005 16.3* 0.4* 31.2* 5.9 13.2 23.9 34.4 40.6 47.3 53.5 56.6 54.5 48.5Other medical causes 2000 139.7* 28.1* 116.9* 40.9 52.9 68.0 84.0 117.0 174.2 281.0 466.2 856.1 2476.62005 138.1* 23.4* 114.4* 32.1 48.8 68.5 92.0 119.9 168.0 271.2 471.8 858.6 2549.2All non−medical causes 2000 56.3* 35.1* 61.0* 54.7 58.6 59.8 58.1 58.7 64.3 72.7 96.2 144.5 373.12005 50.6* 28.5* 56.3* 47.7 50.7 55.5 58.7 56.9 57.1 67.9 93.8 138.1 357.7


Peto, Lopez et al16

EU15 (European Union - 15 countries): 2000, 2005

Female smoking−attributed deaths (Sm.) and total deaths (Total)ALL

CAUSESALL

CANCERLung


Othercancer

COPD

Otherrespiratory

Vasculardisease

Livercirrhosis

Othermedical

Non−medical

20000−34 Sm. − − − − − − − − − − −

30676 4623 118 68 4437 203 659 2090 276 14352 8473 Total

35−69 Sm. 33820 15570 12211 1428 1931 4172 968 7966 − 5144 −304310 144391 19032 4289 121070 7585 7728 68884 10868 47596 17258 Total

(11%) (11%) (64%) (33%) (2%) (55%) (13%) (12%) (11%)

70+ Sm. 88856 22882 16400 2635 3847 20109 5706 28631 − 11528 −1531407 264923 25442 7179 232302 41313 106635 747059 8223 324051 39203 Total

(6%) (9%) (64%) (37%) (2%) (49%) (5%) (4%) (4%)

Any Sm. 122676 38452 28611 4063 5778 24281 6674 36597 − 16672 −1866393 413937 44592 11536 357809 49101 115022 818033 19367 385999 64934age Total

(7%) (9%) (64%) (35%) (2%) (49%) (6%) (4%) (4%)

20050−34 Sm. − − − − − − − − − − −

25158 3869 110 46 3713 144 583 1614 157 12300 6491 Total

35−69 Sm. 38351 19533 15622 1674 2237 4201 879 7368 − 6370 −288794 144400 22817 4469 117114 7188 6502 55893 9860 48413 16538 Total

(13%) (14%) (68%) (37%) (2%) (58%) (14%) (13%) (13%)

70+ Sm. 104492 27961 20382 2888 4691 24265 5225 30590 − 16451 −1544649 276318 30121 7246 238951 45332 98422 696844 7383 379154 41196 Total

(7%) (10%) (68%) (40%) (2%) (54%) (5%) (4%) (4%)

Any Sm. 142843 47494 36004 4562 6928 28466 6104 37958 − 22821 −1858601 424587 53048 11761 359778 52664 105507 754351 17400 439867 64225age Total

(8%) (11%) (68%) (39%) (2%) (54%) (6%) (5%) (5%)


Female death rates used for calculationsAll ages 0−34 35−69 35−39 40−44 45−49 50−54 55−59 60−64 65−69 70−74 75−79 80+/NK


but the all−ages rates are standardised to the conventional "European" age distribution)All causes 2000 512.2* 37.8* 400.3* 74.7 121.8 191.9 284.5 420.6 649.2 1059.3 1824.6 3320.7 11218.32005 453.7* 32.3* 360.8* 64.3 106.0 175.7 267.0 396.4 583.3 932.8 1595.9 2931.6 9867.2All cancer 2000 137.2* 5.1* 189.2* 28.0 56.0 95.3 152.1 226.6 320.1 446.0 625.0 856.7 1408.62005 130.0* 4.6* 180.2* 25.0 48.6 87.4 142.1 218.0 307.7 432.7 597.1 830.3 1311.1Lung cancer 2000 15.8* 0.1* 25.1* 1.8 6.7 12.5 20.1 31.8 42.0 60.7 83.3 97.0 100.72005 17.8* 0.1* 28.5* 1.8 6.0 14.6 25.0 37.1 49.9 65.3 86.3 109.8 113.1Upper aerodigestive cancer (mouth, oesophagus, pharynx and larynx) 2000 3.9* 0.1* 5.6* 0.4 1.4 3.2 5.1 7.4 9.6 12.1 16.5 21.4 40.22005 3.7* 0.1* 5.6* 0.4 1.0 2.7 5.1 7.9 10.3 11.7 15.1 21.4 35.1Other cancer 2000 117.5* 4.9* 158.5* 25.7 47.9 79.5 126.9 187.3 268.5 373.3 525.2 738.3 1267.72005 108.5* 4.4* 146.1* 22.9 41.5 70.1 112.1 173.1 247.5 355.7 495.8 699.1 1162.9Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) 2000 13.3* 0.2* 10.4* 0.6 1.2 2.5 5.1 9.6 17.6 36.0 69.4 113.2 263.52005 12.5* 0.2* 9.4* 0.3 0.9 1.9 4.5 9.0 17.5 31.7 59.8 109.3 263.3Other respiratory disease 2000 27.3* 0.8* 10.3* 1.9 2.5 4.0 5.8 9.3 16.1 32.5 70.3 161.9 893.52005 21.7* 0.8* 8.3* 1.3 1.9 3.0 5.1 7.6 13.1 26.1 56.6 130.8 702.6Vascular disease 2000 199.1* 2.4* 93.3* 9.4 17.4 29.4 46.5 77.1 155.6 317.7 673.3 1446.1 5825.22005 158.9* 1.9* 71.7* 7.8 14.4 26.4 40.0 63.8 115.2 234.5 504.6 1120.4 4758.8Liver cirrhosis 2000 7.7* 0.3* 13.8* 3.4 6.3 10.5 14.1 17.1 21.2 24.1 28.3 32.4 30.32005 6.6* 0.2* 11.8* 2.5 5.0 9.8 13.2 15.3 17.2 19.9 23.5 27.2 25.7Other medical causes 2000 105.2* 19.1* 62.4* 16.7 21.7 30.7 41.0 59.5 94.9 171.9 312.9 631.9 2503.22005 104.3* 16.8* 60.2* 14.8 20.5 30.0 43.1 62.7 90.3 160.2 314.0 642.5 2535.9All non−medical causes 2000 22.4* 9.9* 21.0* 14.8 16.7 19.5 19.9 21.4 23.5 31.0 45.3 78.4 294.02005 19.8* 7.9* 19.1* 12.5 14.7 17.3 19.0 20.1 22.4 27.6 40.3 71.3 269.7


EU15 17

2000, 2005: EU15 (European Union - 15 countries)

Relative importance of deaths in MIDDLE age (35−69) in the year 2005

Age Deaths attributed to SMOKING Mean years lostrange /total deaths (thousands) PER DEATH FROM(years) Male Female SMOKING

0−34 /− 52 /− 25 −

35−69 /150 543 /38 289 23 years

70+ /222 1200 /104 1545 8 years

All ages /373 1795 /143 1859 13 years

Deaths, by cause, attributed to SMOKING / total deaths (thousands) in the year 2005

Male (by age) Female (by age)Cause 0−34 35−69 70+ All 0−34 35−69 70+ All

Lung Cancer /− 0.2 /57 64 /69 77 /126 141 /− 0.1 /16 23 /20 30 /36 53

All Cancer /− 4.4 /85 210 /103 326 /189 541 /− 3.9 /20 144 /28 276 /47 425 (41%) (32%) (14%) (10%)

Vascular /− 3.1 /31 143 /46 466 /77 612 /− 1.6 /7.4 56 /31 697 /38 754

Respiratory /− 1.1 /12 26 /52 139 /64 167 /− 0.7 /5.1 14 /29 144 /35 158

All Other /− 44 /21 163 /22 268 /43 475 /− 19 /6.4 75 /16 428 /23 521

All Causes /− 52 /150 543 /222 1200 /373 1795 /− 25 /38 289 /104 1545 /143 1859 (28%) (19%) (13%) ( 7%)

Cancer deaths, and all deaths,attributed to SMOKING / total deaths (thousands) in the year 2005

Cause Male Female Male + Female

All Cancer /189 541 /47 425 /236 966(35%) (11%) (24%)

All Causes /373 1795 /143 1859 /516 3654(21%) ( 8%) (14%)

Peto, Lopez et al18

EU15 (European Union - 15 countries): 2005

9.1% 1955

MALE

7.7% 1960

6.5% 1965

5.9% 1970

5.1% 1975

4.4% 1980

3.7% 1985

3.7% 1990

3.2% 1995

2.6% 2000

2.2% 2005*

Populationrisk ofdying atages 0−34

9 39%

11 40%

12 40%

12 39%

12 38%

12 36%

11 33%

10 30%

9 28%

7 25%

6* 22%*

Population risk of a 35−year−old dying at ages 35−69from smoking (shaded) or from any cause (shaded and white)

*eg, at year 2005 male death rates, out of 100 men aged 35, 22 would die before age 70 (with 6 of these deaths attributed to smoking)

Note: Most of those killed by smoking would otherwise have survived beyond age 70,but a minority (shaded area to right of dotted line) would have died by 70 anyway

6.9% 1955

FEMALE

5.5% 1960

4.4% 1965

3.7% 1970

3.1% 1975

2.5% 1980

2.1% 1985

1.8% 1990

1.6% 1995

1.3% 2000

1.1% 2005

0.4 27%

0.6 25%

0.8 24%

0.9 23%

1.1 21%

1.3 19%

1.5 18%

1.5 16%

1.5 15%

1.5 13%

1.6 12%

EU15 19

1955-2005: EU15 (European Union - 15 countries)

Numbers of deaths attributed to smoking / total deaths (thousands)

Male (by age) Female (by age)Year 0−34 35−69 70+ All 0−34 35−69 70+ All

1950 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

1955 /− 236 /156 666 /45 763 /201 1665 /− 174 /8.2 502 /2.8 903 /11 1579 (23%) ( 6%) ( 2%) (0.3%)

1960 /− 206 /199 714 /72 828 /271 1748 /− 141 /12 495 /6.7 1004 /18 1641 (28%) ( 9%) ( 2%) (0.7%)

1965 /− 183 /235 780 /105 872 /340 1836 /− 120 /17 499 /11 1092 /28 1710 (30%) (12%) ( 3%) ( 1%)

1970 /− 162 /249 798 /148 932 /397 1892 /− 99 /20 494 /17 1198 /37 1792 (31%) (16%) ( 4%) ( 1%)

1975 /− 136 /247 773 /201 1039 /448 1947 /− 78 /23 462 /27 1313 /50 1853 (32%) (19%) ( 5%) ( 2%)

1980 /− 117 /233 707 /219 1086 /452 1910 /− 63 /27 407 /35 1365 /61 1835 (33%) (20%) ( 7%) ( 3%)

1985 /− 97 /224 658 /241 1143 /465 1898 /− 49 /30 364 /52 1461 /81 1874 (34%) (21%) ( 8%) ( 4%)

1990 /− 97 /221 668 /220 1094 /441 1859 /− 45 /33 362 /62 1462 /95 1869 (33%) (20%) ( 9%) ( 4%)

1995 /− 85 /203 641 /228 1133 /431 1859 /− 38 /33 332 /81 1511 /115 1881 (32%) (20%) (10%) ( 5%)

2000 /− 66 /171 584 /222 1158 /392 1808 /− 31 /34 304 /89 1531 /123 1866 (29%) (19%) (11%) ( 6%)

2005 /− 52 /150 543 /222 1200 /373 1795 /− 25 /38 289 /104 1545 /143 1859 (28%) (19%) (13%) ( 7%)

50−year total* (M=millions), mid−1960 to mid−2010: 25/ 185M

1960−2010 by age & sex:

/− 5.5M /11 34M

(31%) /10 54M

(19%) /21 93M /− 3.1M /1.4 19M

( 7%) /2.8 69M

( 4%) /4.2 92M

*Estimated as 10 times the sum of the annual numbers for 1965, 1975, 1985, 1995 & 2005

Peto, Lopez et al20

EU15 (European Union - 15 countries): 1950-2010

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Year

An

nu

al s

mo

kin

g d

eath

s (1

000s

) Male Female

201

271

340

397

448 452465

441 431

392373

11 1828 37

5061

8195

115 123143

Smoking−attributed deaths:thousands per year (all ages)

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Year

An

nu

al s

mo

kin

g d

eath

s (1

000s

)

Male Female

156

199

235

249 247

233224 221

203

171

150

8.2 1217 20

23 2730 33 33 34

38

Smoking−attributed deaths:thousands per year at ages 35−69 only

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

10

20

30

%

Year

Male Female

12

16

19

21

23 2424

24 2322

21

0.7 1.11.7 2.1

2.7 3.34.3

5.16.1 6.6

7.7

Smoking−attributed deaths:% of all deaths (all ages)

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

10

20

30

40

%

Year

Male Female

23

2830

31 3233

3433

3229

28

1.6 2.33.4 4.0

5.16.5

8.29.2 10

1113

Smoking−attributed deaths:% of all deaths at ages 35−69 only

EU15 21

1955-2005: EU15 (European Union - 15 countries)

ALL−CAUSE mortality rates attributed and not attributed to smoking

7.2

3.6

0.5

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20100

2020

15

5

10*

Year:

Sta

nd

ard

ised

† d

eath

rat

e/10

00


ages 35−69 & 0−34

Male 35−69

Female 35−69

M and F 0−34

* An annual rate of 10 per 1000 implies that 30% of 35−year−olds will die before age 70


5.2

2.0

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20100

15

5

10

Year:

Sta

nd

ard

ised

† d

eath

rat

e/10

00


ages 35−69: MALE

Not attributed:


3.1

0.5

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20100

10

5

Year:

Documents

Richard Peto, Alan D Lopez, Jillian Boreham and …...2012/02/22 · Richard Peto, Alan D Lopez, Jillian Boreham and Michael Thun (Nov 2011 update) MORTALITY FROM SMOKING IN DEVELOPED