M. Mohapatra,

Head, RSMC New Delhi

mohapatraimd@gmail.com

Review of Tropical Cyclone

Operational Plan for 2016

Operational plan 2016

Additional products of INSAT-3D imageries on cyclones in website of

IMD and RSMC New Delhi

GIS based RAPID system for better analysis of satellite imageries and

products available in IMD website

Derived products like vorticity, divergence, convergence, wind shear

etc from INSAT-3D

Satellite Meteorology

Establishment of a new processing system, earth station and civil work for INSAT-3D (Repeat) and INSAT-3D (Spare) expected to be launched in 2016.

Validation of different INSAT-3D products on monthly basis.

Up gradation of NSDC to a state of art New Satellite Data centre and to set up IMET cast Network for dissemination of satellite data/products.

Implementation of Advanced D ‘ Vorak’s technique tools in respect of auto tracking of cyclone.

DWR installations

DWRs Paradip, Karaikal and Mumbai: Commissioned and made functional.

DWR Srinagar: Commissioned and made functional.

DWR Gopalpur: System installed provided by ISRO. Hardware and software System tests are in progress by M/s BEL and ISRO Engineers.

DWR Bhuj: Under operational testing by M/s BEL engineers and SAT will be conducted shortly.

DWR Kochi: Installation is in progress.

DWR Goa: Installation of Base ring & Radome started. System will be commissioned shortly.

CAMC of C-Band DWR (Vaisala) for HQ and Jaipur signed for three years.

CAMC of 9 Nos. DWR (Metstar), China is under process of entering into contract agreement.

Upper Air Instruments Entire network of 39 stations of upper air (RS/RW) upgraded with GPS based system, and all the stations are working at present.

6 Nos. of GPS based systems (make M/s GRAW Germany) installed/ commissioned (one at each RMC) to up-grade these RS/RW stations as per WMO GCOS Network (GUAN) standard. Action being taken for induction of these stations into GUAN network.

13 Nos. of GPS based systems (make M/s Jinyang Korea) installed/ commissioned at RS/RW Agaratala, Siliguri, Gorakhpur, Lucknow, Ranchi, Karaikal, Machhilipatnam, Mangalore, Kochi, Jodhpur, Jammu, Sundernagar & Dehradun.

7 Nos. of GPS based systems (make M/s Changfeng China) installed/ commissioned at Patiala, Gwalior, Jagdalpur, Raipur, Jaipur, Aurangabad & Bangalore to up-grade these RS/RW stations.

Pilot Balloon (PB) observatories of Sundernagar and Dehradun up-graded to RS/RW.

Numerical Weather Prediction

Assimilation of INSAT 3D AMV/CMV in GFS and WRF, INSAT 3D Radiance in WRF, multiple DWR data in WRF

Porting of GFS and WRF model at IITM - ‘Aditya’ completed and operationalized .

GEFS and UM EPS products from NCMRWF

NWP Modeling

HWRF run at 27x9x3 resolution four times a day based

on 00, 06, 12 and 18 UTC analysis

Storm surge inputs: INCOIS and IIT Delhi models already

under use.

Coastal inundation forecast: INCOIS model in operation.

Plan : 2016:Experimental Seasonal Prediction

Model: Principal Component Regression Model for

storm count

The PCR model was developed using 6 parameters

for a training period of 40 years (1971 to 2010) and

tested for the years 2011-2014.

Regression model for cyclonic disturbance

(depression and above) days over NIO during OND

Experimental seasonal prediction was attempted on

real time for the post-monsoon cyclone period (OND).

2014 and 2015

The prediction may be communicated to member

countries from 2016 post-monsoon season to be

issued in September 2016

Plan: 2016

Extended Range Forecast:

Coupled Model Guidance

• We may produce the Extended Range Outlook for cyclogenesis and

heavy rainfall based on extended range numerical model forecasts.

Plan-2015: Bifurcation of VSCS category

Nomenclature MSW in kts Pressure

Drop (hPa)

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm (VSCS)

64-89 kts 20.1-40.5 hPa

Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm (ExSCS) 90-119 kts 40.5-79.9 hPa

Nomenclature of

Low Pressure System

Pr. defect

(hPa)

T.No MSW in kts

Low pressure area (LOPAR) 1.0 T1.0 <17

Depression (D) 1.0- 3.0 T1.5 17-27

Deep Depression (DD) 3.0 - 4.5 T2.0 28-33

Cyclonic Storm (CS) 4.5- 8.5 T2.5-3.0 34-47

Severe Cyclonic Storm (SCS) 8.5-20.1 T3.5 48-63

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm (VSCS) 20.1-79.9 T4.0-6.0 64-119

Super Cyclonic Storm (SuCS) >79.9 T≥6.5 120 or more

From the year 2015 onwards, the VSCS has been bifurcated as above and all

bulletins are issued based on the new nomenclature

Plan-2016: Quadrant wind radii monitoring

• Inputs: NOAA-NESDIS multi-platform

wind products and analysis field of

the model closest to the

observational analysis

• The wind radii forecasts are issued

over the sea area only as per the

requirement of the users.

• Included the wind radii analysis

information in best track parameters

from 2015

• It has been sent to WMO and NHC,

USA

28 kt

34 kt

50 kt

64 kt

Northeast Northwest

Southwest Southeast

Plan 2016 : Rainfall estimation (Implemented)

Satellite and RADAR based QPE

IMD-NCMRWF’s GPM based satellite - gauge merged rainfall product

TC specific rainfall profiles of analogous past cyclones (TCRAIN)

Plan-2016: Heavy rainfall prediction HWRF and ensemble tropical rainfall probability (eTRaP) for every six

hrs

Rainfall Initiatives

Enhanced duration for QPF from 2 days to 3 days and outlook from 3 days to 4 days

Pictorial and tabulation of sub catchment wise QPF from NWP models- GFS for 7days in addition to WRF, MME for 3 days

QPF issued for 4 new catchments: Jhelum, Pennar, Torsa, Sankosh which involves 12 sub catchments

Real time Hourly cumulative (one day) AWS/ARG rainfall data on Pan India. Useful for real time rainfall information, Urban flooding etc.

Zoom in/out

Information Systems and Services

New in-house developed/ re-designed website (user friendly/ easy to navigate): Launched by Hon’ble Minister on 141st IMD foundation day (2016).

NKN implementation: Link established with IITM Pune for running NWP models at HPCS of IITM, Pune. The link is also utilized for data exchange with other MoES centres under CUG of NKN and web browsing.

Data sharing with NAVY, IAF including FTP service, FDP project etc.

New links: Established GTS link with Bhutan over internet and 2 links (with Exeter and offenbach) through RMDCN cloud for data exchange over GTS.

Integration of several new data sets like Satellite radiance data, Himawari satellite(JMA), Argo BUFR (INCOIS), METOP etc. for GTS exchange.

NKN implementation between NCS and INCOIS for data exchange through VSAT hub at NCMRWF Noida.

Plans for warning dissemination:

Alerts for Cyclones over North Indian Ocean on

Google website (in collaboration with Google India)

OUPUT

Format Contents

Text Bulletins About the system Forecast -Track & Intensity Adverse Weather Damage Expected Action Suggested Dos & Don'ts

Graphics On Google Map

INPUT

Bulletin National & RSMC

Graphics Track, Intensity, Heavy Rainfall, Storm Surge

Format Bulletins :Word Graphics : PNG

Implementation : Work in Progress & will be made operational during pre-monsoon cyclone season (Apr 2015 )

Sample of what an IMD alert in Google website may look like

SOPs : Chapter 9 of the manual has been

finalised for national use

SOP between IMD and INCOIS is finalised

for national use

In addition, it will be used for coastal

weather bulletin, sea area bulletin

Synergised SOP for WMO/ESCAP PTC and

Typhoon Committee countries has been

finalised

It can be used as a guideline for regional

development of SSOP

SOP

Synergized- SOP for Marine Weather & Ocean State

forecast

IMD issues marine weather forecast for NIO

INCOIS issues Ocean state forecast

Some of the forecast parameter like wind and sea

state(wave height)are common. However the forecast

differ from each other different validity period, content

and language

Hence IMD & INCOIS constituted a committee to

develop a Synergized-SOP

Final SOP has been prepared and circulated to all

Cyclones warning centres for implementation from

2016

Thank you