Review of NOAA Intensity Forecasting Experiment (IFEX)

2008 Accomplishments and Plans for 2009

Eric Uhlhorn, Frank Marks,

John Gamache, Sim Aberson, Jason Dunion

NOAA/AOML/HRD

Highlights• Second busiest season (by flight hours)• TC genesis of Dolly and Fay• Pre- and a post-storm ocean surveys in Gustav

and Ike, including floats/drifters/expendables• HFIP/Texas Advanced Computing Center

(TACC) real-time Doppler data for TDR missions in Ike

• Rapid intensification event in Paloma• Numerous collaborators

StormP-3

FlightsG-IV

FlightsGPS

DropsondesAXBTs

Airborne Radar

Analyses

H*Wind Analyse

s

HRS Runs

Dolly 6 3 145 56 9 23 4

Fay 12 4 190 0 18 39 13

Gustav 8 4 204 208 15 59 10

Hanna 1 2 63 0 0 42 11

Ike 11 8 375 207 15 59 12

Kyle 8 0 59 0 24 10 9

Paloma 3 2 120 54 14 27 5

Totals 39 23 1156 525 95 259 64

Dolly – 6 P3 and 3 G-IV flights from 07/20 to 07/23

• Nearly continuous coverage from before genesis to hurricane and landfall.

• Looked at convective bursts, arc clouds, SFMR winds in on- and off-shore flows, ocean structure.

• Evolution of Dolly’s wind field at 1 km during last 24 h before landfall

7/21 23Z 7/22 11Z 7/22 23Z

7/22 00Z 7/22 13Z 7/23 01Z

Gustav – 8 P3/4 GIV 08/28 to 09/03• A pre- and a post-storm ocean survey in collaboration with EMC, UM/RSMAS, and URI, and

coordination with AOML/PhOD, the University of Washington, Scripps Institute of Oceanography, Air Force 53rd WRS, and CARCAH to deploy 12 floats/drifters ahead of the storm.

• A landfall flight coordinated with mobile teams from UF/FCMP, TTU, LSU, UA-Hunstville, and the Center for Severe Weather Research.

• Superobs sent for realtime EnKF assimilation in WRF-ARW at TACC (in collaboration with TAMU and PSU).

• Coverage from rapid intensification through landfall.

• Looked at mesoscale convective systems and potentially tornadic rainbands near landfall and SFMR validation in shallow bathymetry.

15

20

25

30

35

-95 -90 -85 -80 -75

Gustav

La

titu

de

Longitude

Gustav – Coordinated Upper-Ocean Response

Experiment (08/28 – 09/03)

Gustav – Coordinated Landfall Survey

TTU StickNetUF/FCMP

UAH

Offshore flowOnshore flow

• A pre- and a post-storm ocean survey in collaboration with EMC, UM/RSMAS, and URI, and coordination with AOML/PhOD, the University of Washington, Scripps Institute of Oceanography, Air Force 53rd WRS, and CARCAH to deploy 9 floats/drifters ahead of the storm.

• A landfall flight coordinated with mobile teams from UF/FCMP, TTU, LSU, UA-Hunstville, and the Center for Severe Weather Research.

• Superobs sent for realtime EnKF assimilation in WRF-ARW at TACC (in collaboration with TAMU and PSU).

Ike – 11 P3/8 G-IV 09/05 to 09/15

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

-100 -95 -90 -85 -80 -75 -70 -65

Hurricane Ike

La

titu

de

Longitude

Ike – Coordinated Upper-Ocean Response Experiment (09/08 – 09/15)

HFIP-TACC Real-time for IkeEnsemble Track

Ensemble max 10-m wind

Paloma RI – 3 P3/2 G-1V 11/05 to 11/08

15

20

25

30

-90 -85 -80 -75

Paloma P-3 flightsL

atit

ud

e

Longitude

11/08 19Z11/08 16Z11/07 09Z11/07 06Z

Plans for 2009

• Continue TDR missions and real-time Doppler data transmission

• Continue coordination with NESDIS Ocean Winds

• Coordinate with 53rd for additional float/drifter deployments

• Commence joint experiment with Dept. of Interior/MMS for Loop Current study

Plan for NOAA WP-3D profiling over MMS Moorings (In collaboration with AOML HRD, AOC, TPC, NCEP)

Goal: To observe and improve our understanding of the LC response to the near-surface wind structure during TC passages. Specific objectives are:

1. The oceanic response of the LC to TC forcing; and, 2. Influence of the LC response on the atmospheric boundary layer and intensity.

Deliverables include:

V, T, S profiles to 1000 m @ 2-m resolution.

Surface winds (SFMR, GPS) provided by HRD.

Atmospheric profiles of V, T and RH @ 5-m resolution.

Summary: Quality ocean data needed for coupled models!

Good data set-serves as the prototype of ocean/atmosphere measurements .

Combine adaptive aircraft surveys with moored, drifter and ship based measurements as part of the MMS/SAIC Dynamics of the Loop Current Study with the NOAA HFIP (AOML, NCEP), NSF and NASA (leveraging assets this year).

Negative feedback (cooling/mixing induced by strong winds and CCR) as opposed to positive feedback over the LC/ WCR. Need to update OHC climatology in Atlantic basin.

SST modulated by warm and cold ocean features that have to be properly initialized in ocean models and mixing processes impact fluxes.

Targeted temperature and current measurements needed to assess mixing schemes, fluxes and evaluate initialization schemes. Expendables (AXCP, AXCTD) drifters and floats required for satellite and oceanic and coupled model evaluations.