12
RESULTS REVIEW 2QFY20 09 NOV 2019 Eicher Motors NEUTRAL Meeting lowered expectations RE reported in-line operating results, with EBITDA margins at 25% (-90bps QoQ). We recently upgraded Eicher Motors to NEUTRAL as the corporate tax rate cuts will enable the co to partially offset input cost pressures. We raise our EPS by ~3% over FY20-22 and have a revised TP of Rs 19,650 as we value the core RE business at 22x Sep-21 EPS vs. 19x earlier (at 20% premium to mass market OEMs). HIGHLIGHTS OF THE QUARTER Financials: Vols for RE declined 21% YoY to 166k units. However, realizations at Rs 1,30,970 grew 15/2% YoY/QoQ on higher exports. Standalone revenue/EBITDA declined 9/24% YoY. EBITDA margins were in-line with our estimates at 25% (-490/-90bps YoY/QoQ). Higher other income (+52% YoY) partially offset the impact of the above. Standalone PAT grew 19/15% YoY/QoQ owing to tax adjustments. Consolidated profit was up +1/27% YoY/QoQ at Rs 5.7bn (vs our estimate of Rs 4.5bn). Weak performance at VECV impacted the consolidated results. Demand outlook: Retails have risen sharply in the festive season. Management’s strategy to open 250 new studio stores as well as the price reduction (Bullet ES) has resulted in significantly higher retails in Oct-19, post which the channel stock has now fallen to under 3 weeks. In our 2QFY20 Preview note we highlighted that demand will benefit from here on led by corporate actions, good monsoons and a benign base . Exports growth led by the Twins: Exports have risen sharply to ~4k per month (from 1.5k earlier) as the Twins are rolled out across international markets. While management highlights that the initial consumer response has been encouraging; we believe that exports are a medium term opportunity. As RE is a new entrant in the mid sized category (above 500cc), ramping up the distribution is the key challenge. VECV’s performance remained sedate as industry retails are impacted by the axle load related capacity increase. Thus, EBITDA margins are weak at 5.2% (-30bps QoQ). CV sector recovery is delayed. Industry awaits announcement of a scrappage scheme. STANCE We recently upgraded the stock to NEUTRAL as (1) Lowering of corporate tax rates will partially offset revenue/margin pressures from the price reductions as well as the impending BSVI transition (2) Eicher’s strategy of opening new format stores/launching entry variants is driving footfalls (3) Realizations are being supported by the growth in export markets, led by the Twins. Financial Summary: Consolidated YE March (Rs mn) 2QFY20 2QFY19 YoY (%) 1QFY20 QoQ (%) FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E Net Sales 21,925 24,082 (9.0) 23,819 (8.0) 89,650 97,971 97,253 108,138 121,712 EBITDA 5,414 7,293 (25.8) 6,145 (11.9) 28,076 29,031 24,393 27,061 31,238 APAT 5,727 5,663 1.1 4,518 26.8 21,797 22,203 20,678 22,356 26,421 Diluted EPS (Rs) 210.1 207.7 1.1 165.7 26.8 799.6 814.5 758.6 820.1 969.2 APAT Growth (%) 27.2 1.9 (6.9) 8.1 18.2 P/E (x) 27.1 26.6 28.6 26.4 22.4 RoE (%) 35.2 27.8 21.2 19.5 19.6 Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research INDUSTRY AUTOS CMP (as on 08 Nov 2019) Rs 21,701 Target Price Rs 19,650 Nifty 11,908 Sensex 40,324 KEY STOCK DATA Bloomberg EIM IN No. of Shares (mn) 27 MCap (Rsbn) / ($ mn) 592/8,313 6m avg traded value (Rsmn) 2,827 STOCK PERFORMANCE (%) 52 Week high / low Rs 25,350/15,197 3M 6M 12M Absolute (%) 29.1 6.7 (4.2) Relative (%) 21.1 0.0 (18.6) SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%) Jun-19 Sep-19 Promoters 49.3 49.3 FIs & Local MFs 4.8 7.3 FPIs 33.2 31.9 Public & Others 12.7 11.5 Pledged Shares 0.0 0.0 Source : BSE Aditya Makharia [email protected] +91-22-6171-7316 Mansi Lall [email protected] +91-22-3021-2070 HDFC securities Institutional Research is also available on Bloomberg HSLB <GO>& Thomson Reuters

RESULTS REVIEW 2QFY20 09 NOV 2019 Eicher Motors - 2QFY20...Eicher Motors NEUTRAL ‘ Meeting lowered expectations. RE reported in-line operating results, with EBITDA margins at 25%

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Page 1: RESULTS REVIEW 2QFY20 09 NOV 2019 Eicher Motors - 2QFY20...Eicher Motors NEUTRAL ‘ Meeting lowered expectations. RE reported in-line operating results, with EBITDA margins at 25%

RESULTS REVIEW 2QFY20 09 NOV 2019

Eicher Motors NEUTRAL

Meeting lowered expectationsRE reported in-line operating results, with EBITDA margins at 25% (-90bps QoQ). We recently upgraded Eicher Motors to NEUTRAL as the corporate tax rate cuts will enable the co to partially offset input cost pressures. We raise our EPS by ~3% over FY20-22 and have a revised TP of Rs 19,650 as we value the core RE business at 22x Sep-21 EPS vs. 19x earlier (at 20% premium to mass market OEMs). HIGHLIGHTS OF THE QUARTER Financials: Vols for RE declined 21% YoY to 166k units.

However, realizations at Rs 1,30,970 grew 15/2% YoY/QoQ on higher exports. Standalone revenue/EBITDA declined 9/24% YoY. EBITDA margins were in-line with our estimates at 25% (-490/-90bps YoY/QoQ). Higher other income (+52% YoY) partially offset the impact of the above. Standalone PAT grew 19/15% YoY/QoQ owing to tax adjustments. Consolidated profit was up +1/27% YoY/QoQ at Rs 5.7bn (vs our estimate of Rs 4.5bn). Weak performance at VECV impacted the consolidated results.

Demand outlook: Retails have risen sharply in the festive season. Management’s strategy to open 250 new studio stores as well as the price reduction (Bullet ES) has resulted in significantly higher retails in Oct-19, post which the channel stock has now fallen to under 3 weeks. In our 2QFY20 Preview note we highlighted that demand

will benefit from here on led by corporate actions, good monsoons and a benign base.

Exports growth led by the Twins: Exports have risen sharply to ~4k per month (from 1.5k earlier) as the Twins are rolled out across international markets. While management highlights that the initial consumer response has been encouraging; we believe that exports are a medium term opportunity. As RE is a new entrant in the mid sized category (above 500cc), ramping up the distribution is the key challenge.

VECV’s performance remained sedate as industry retails are impacted by the axle load related capacity increase. Thus, EBITDA margins are weak at 5.2% (-30bps QoQ). CV sector recovery is delayed. Industry awaits announcement of a scrappage scheme.

STANCE We recently upgraded the stock to NEUTRAL as (1) Lowering of corporate tax rates will partially offset revenue/margin pressures from the price reductions as well as the impending BSVI transition (2) Eicher’s strategy of opening new format stores/launching entry variants is driving footfalls (3) Realizations are being supported by the growth in export markets, led by the Twins.

Financial Summary: Consolidated YE March (Rs mn) 2QFY20 2QFY19 YoY (%) 1QFY20 QoQ (%) FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E Net Sales 21,925 24,082 (9.0) 23,819 (8.0) 89,650 97,971 97,253 108,138 121,712 EBITDA 5,414 7,293 (25.8) 6,145 (11.9) 28,076 29,031 24,393 27,061 31,238 APAT 5,727 5,663 1.1 4,518 26.8 21,797 22,203 20,678 22,356 26,421 Diluted EPS (Rs) 210.1 207.7 1.1 165.7 26.8 799.6 814.5 758.6 820.1 969.2 APAT Growth (%) 27.2 1.9 (6.9) 8.1 18.2 P/E (x) 27.1 26.6 28.6 26.4 22.4 RoE (%) 35.2 27.8 21.2 19.5 19.6 Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

INDUSTRY AUTOS CMP (as on 08 Nov 2019) Rs 21,701 Target Price Rs 19,650 Nifty 11,908 Sensex 40,324 KEY STOCK DATA Bloomberg EIM IN No. of Shares (mn) 27 MCap (Rsbn) / ($ mn) 592/8,313 6m avg traded value (Rsmn) 2,827 STOCK PERFORMANCE (%) 52 Week high / low Rs 25,350/15,197 3M 6M 12M Absolute (%) 29.1 6.7 (4.2) Relative (%) 21.1 0.0 (18.6) SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%) Jun-19 Sep-19 Promoters 49.3 49.3 FIs & Local MFs 4.8 7.3 FPIs 33.2 31.9 Public & Others 12.7 11.5 Pledged Shares 0.0 0.0 Source : BSE Aditya Makharia [email protected] +91-22-6171-7316 Mansi Lall [email protected] +91-22-3021-2070

HDFC securities Institutional Research is also available on Bloomberg HSLB <GO>& Thomson Reuters

Page 2: RESULTS REVIEW 2QFY20 09 NOV 2019 Eicher Motors - 2QFY20...Eicher Motors NEUTRAL ‘ Meeting lowered expectations. RE reported in-line operating results, with EBITDA margins at 25%

EICHER MOTORS: RESULTS REVIEW 2QFY20

Valuation summary We have a NEUTRAL rating on Eicher with a revised

TP of Rs 19,650 (earlier Rs 16,280).

We increase multiple on the RE business to 22x (earlier 19x). We value the core RE business at a 20% premium to mass market OEMs.

The higher multiples factor in the benefits from the corporate tax cuts, which provide room to partially absorb the impact of the recent price cuts as well as the emission related cost hikes. The recent pick-up in retails has lowered the system inventories, which will facilitate a smooth transition to BSVI.

SOTP Valuation (Rs.)

Stake

held (%) Valuation

methodology Multiple

(x) Value/sh

(Rs)

Royal Enfield 100 P/E on Sep-21E core EPS 22 18,864

VECV 54.4 P/E on Sep21E 13 786 TP (Rs) 19,650 Source: HDFC sec Inst Research

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EICHER MOTORS: RESULTS REVIEW 2QFY20

Quarterly Financials Snapshot: Standalone Particulars (Rs mn.) 2QFY20 2QFY19 YoY (%) 1QFY20 QoQ (%) 1HFY20 1HFY19 YoY (%) Volumes (in units) 166,589 210,102 (20.7) 183,589 (9.3) 350,178 435,463 (19.6) Net ASP (Rs/veh) 130,973 114,423 14.5 128,144 2.2 129,490 113,648 13.9

Net sales (incl OOI) 21,819 24,041 (9.2) 23,526 (7.3) 45,344 49,490 (8.4) Material Expenses 11,896 12,176 (2.3) 12,725 (6.5) 24,622 25,274 (2.6) Employee Expenses 1,783 1,706 4.5 2,041 (12.6) 3,824 3,359 13.8 Other Operating Expenses 2,679 2,972 (9.9) 2,667 0.5 5,345 5,449 (1.9) Total Expenditure 16,359 16,855 (2.9) 17,433 (6.2) 33,791 34,082 (0.9) EBITDA 5,460 7,186 (24.0) 6,093 (10.4) 11,553 15,408 (25.0) Depreciation 890 718 23.9 868 2.5 1,758 1,417 24.1 EBIT 4,570 6,468 (29.3) 5,225 (12.5) 9,795 13,991 (30.0) Other Income 1,450 953 52.1 1,884 (23.0) 3,333 2,213 50.6 Interest Cost 27 8 264.0 29 (7.1) 57 15 285.7 PBT 5,993 7,413 (19.2) 7,079 (15.3) 13,072 16,190 (19.3) Tax 288 2,599 (88.9) 2,097 (86.3) 2,385 5,464 (56.4) RPAT 5,705 4,814 18.5 4,982 14.5 10,687 10,726 (0.4) EPS 209.3 176.6 18.5 182.8 14.5 392.0 393.5 (0.4) Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Margin Analysis: Standalone As % of sales 2QFY20 2QFY19 YoY (bps) 1QFY20 QoQ (bps) 1HFY20 1HFY19 YoY (bps) Material Expenses 54.5 50.6 387 54.1 43 54.3 51.1 323 Employee Expenses 8.2 7.1 108 8.7 (50) 8.4 6.8 165 Other Operating Expenses 12.3 12.4 (9) 11.3 94 11.8 11.0 78 Total Expenditure 75.0 70.1 487 74.1 87 74.5 68.9 566 EBITDA 25.0 29.9 (487) 25.9 (87) 25.5 31.1 (566) RPAT 26.1 20.0 612 21.2 497 23.6 21.7 190 Tax as % of PBT 4.8 35.1 (3,026) 29.6 (2,481) 18.2 33.7 (1,550) Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

ASP hike (+15% YoY, 2% QoQ) driven by improved product mix (exports) as well as safety related cost increases EBITDA margins were in-line with our estimates at 25% (-490/-90bps YoY/QoQ). Depreciation charges were higher as the Vallam plant capacity is commissioned Standalone PAT grew 18.5% YoY owing to higher other income and tax adjustments (lower tax rate of 4.8%). Lower taxes was due to the write back of deferred tax of Rs 538mn post the introduction of revised corporate tax norms

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Page 4: RESULTS REVIEW 2QFY20 09 NOV 2019 Eicher Motors - 2QFY20...Eicher Motors NEUTRAL ‘ Meeting lowered expectations. RE reported in-line operating results, with EBITDA margins at 25%

EICHER MOTORS: RESULTS REVIEW 2QFY20

Quarterly Financials Snapshot: VECV Rs mn 2QFY20 2QFY19 YoY (%) 1QFY20 QoQ (%) 1HFY20 1HFY19 YoY (%) Volumes (in units) 11,370 18,696 (39.2) 13,331 (14.7) 24,701 35,023 (29.5) Net Sales 20,040 29,660 (32.4) 22,550 (11.1) 42,590 55,750 (23.6) EBITDA 1,050 2,670 (60.7) 1,250 (16.0) 2,300 5,070 (54.6) EBITDA margin (%) 5.2 9.0 -376 bps 5.5 -30 bps 5.4 9.1 -369 bps PAT 150 1,420 (89.4) 380 (60.5) 530 2,600 (79.6) Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Quarterly Financials Snapshot: Consolidated Rs mn 2QFY20 2QFY19 YoY (%) 1QFY20 QoQ (%) 1HFY20 1HFY19 YoY (%) Net sales (incl OOI) 21,925 24,082 (9.0) 23,819 (8.0) 45,744 49,559 (7.7) EBITDA 5,414 7,293 (25.8) 6,145 (11.9) 11,559 15,389 (24.9) EBITDA margin (%) 24.7 30.3 -559 bps 25.8 -110 bps 25.3 31.1 -578 bps Depreciation 898 722 24.5 876 2.5 1,774 1,423 24.7 EBIT 4,516 6,571 (31.3) 5,269 (14.3) 9,785 13,966 (29.9) Other Income 1,450 940 54.4 1,204 20.5 2,654 1,536 72.9 Interest Cost 44 18 148.3 47 (5.4) 91 33 174.6 PBT 5,922 7,493 (21.0) 6,426 (7.8) 12,348 15,468 (20.2) Tax 278 2,602 (89.3) 2,117 (86.9) 2,395 5,458 (56.1) Share of JV profit 83 772 (89.2) 209 (60.2) 292 1,415 (79.4) RPAT 5,727 5,663 1.1 4,518 26.8 10,245 11,425 (10.3) EPS 210.1 207.7 1.1 165.7 26.8 375.8 419.1 (10.3) Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

VECV margins at 5.2% remains affected due to weak industry environment Consolidated PAT at Rs.5.7bn was up +1% YoY, +27% QoQ Eicher’s large capex programs are now behind as the Vallam Phase II has been commissioned and the technical centers have been set up. The OEM will incur a spend of Rs 7bn in FY20

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Page 5: RESULTS REVIEW 2QFY20 09 NOV 2019 Eicher Motors - 2QFY20...Eicher Motors NEUTRAL ‘ Meeting lowered expectations. RE reported in-line operating results, with EBITDA margins at 25%

EICHER MOTORS: RESULTS REVIEW 2QFY20

Volume Assumptions in units FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E RE 820,493 823,828 764,653 817,529 899,282 % YoY 23.1 0.4 (7.2) 6.9 10.0 VECV 65,932 72,969 59,376 62,112 68,128 % YoY 12.6 10.7 (18.6) 4.6 9.7 Total volumes 886,425 896,797 824,029 879,641 967,410 % YoY 22.3 1.2 (8.1) 6.7 10.0

RE average ASP (Rs) 108,098 118,890 127,153 132,243 135,315 % YoY 3.3 10.0 6.9 4.0 2.3 Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

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Page 6: RESULTS REVIEW 2QFY20 09 NOV 2019 Eicher Motors - 2QFY20...Eicher Motors NEUTRAL ‘ Meeting lowered expectations. RE reported in-line operating results, with EBITDA margins at 25%

EICHER MOTORS: RESULTS REVIEW 2QFY20

RE volumes declined sharply due to weak macros RE realizations are driven by safety norms/exports

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Retails have witnessed a pick-up in Oct-19 Lower revenues has impacted profitability

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

While RE witnessed sharp decline in volumes (-21/-9% YoY/QoQ), retails in the festive month of Oct-19 are in excess of 90k units (vs. wholesales of 67k). Financing was at ~59% level vs. 53-54% usually Pick-up in volumes is expected on the back of recently launched lower priced variants (Bullet X and Classic S). These models have received a good reception in the markets of Kerala, Punjab, Haryana etc. Smaller format studio stores have driven higher footfalls in the upcountry markets of North / West. As of Oct-19, the co has ~500 such stores RE is well prepared to transition to BSVI as the older inventory is running out

21.5

%

18.8

% 27.4

%

22.5

%

3.6%

-5.9

%

-13.

6%

-18.

5% -20.

7%

-25%

-15%

-5%

5%

15%

25%

35%

160

180

200

220

240

2QFY

18

3QFY

18

4QFY

18

1QFY

19

2QFY

19

3QFY

19

4QFY

19

1QFY

20

2QFY

20

RE Volumes (in units '000) % YoY - RHS

1.0

3.9

5.4

3.9

7.3

10.1

14.4

13.5

14.5

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

2QFY

18

3QFY

18

4QFY

18

1QFY

19

2QFY

19

3QFY

19

4QFY

19

1QFY

20

2QFY

20

Realisation (in Rs '000) % YoY - RHS

72.7

62.6 60.8

62.9 62.4

58.3

54.2 52.9

59.5

72.0

45

60

75

Jan-

19

Feb-

19

Mar

-19

Apr-

19

May

-19

Jun-

19

Jul-1

9

Aug-

19

Sep-

19

Oct

-19

RE Total Volumes (in '000)

31.9

31.7

32.3

32.3

29.9

29.5

27.8

25.9

25.0

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

2QFY

18

3QFY

18

4QFY

18

1QFY

19

2QFY

19

3QFY

19

4QFY

19

1QFY

20

2QFY

20

EBITDA margin (%)

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Page 7: RESULTS REVIEW 2QFY20 09 NOV 2019 Eicher Motors - 2QFY20...Eicher Motors NEUTRAL ‘ Meeting lowered expectations. RE reported in-line operating results, with EBITDA margins at 25%

EICHER MOTORS: RESULTS REVIEW 2QFY20

VECV volumes VECV margins are under pressure

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Two wheelers - One year forward P/E band

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

VECV performance was impacted by the weak industry environment Valuation multiples have risen aided by the corporate tax cuts and improvement in industry retails

12.0

37.8

33.2

41.0

24.5

4.3

(9.1

) (18.

3)

(39.

2)

-45

-30

-15

0

15

30

45

10

15

20

25

2QFY

18

3QFY

18

4QFY

18

1QFY

19

2QFY

19

3QFY

19

4QFY

19

1QFY

20

2QFY

20

VECV Vols (in units '000) % YoY - RHS

9.2

8.7

9.5

9.2

9.0

6.8

8.5

5.5

5.2

5

6

7

8

9

10

2QFY

18

3QFY

18

4QFY

18

1QFY

19

2QFY

19

3QFY

19

4QFY

19

1QFY

20

2QFY

20

VECV EBITDA margin (%)

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Nov-

15

Feb-

16

May

-16

Aug-

16

Nov-

16

Feb-

17

May

-17

Aug -

17

Nov -

17

Feb-

18

May

-18

Aug-

18

Nov-

18

Feb-

19

May

-19

Aug-

19

Nov-

19

Hero Motocorp Eicher Bajaj Auto

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EICHER MOTORS: RESULTS REVIEW 2QFY20

Peer Set Comparison

Mcap CMP Reco TP

Adj EPS (Rs/sh) P/E (x) RoE (%)

(Rs bn) (Rs/sh) FY20E FY21E FY22E FY20E FY21E FY22E FY20E FY21E FY22E

Ashok Leyland 225 77 NEU 76 4.9 5.4 6.3 15.8 14.3 12.1 16.4 16.7 18.0 Bajaj Auto 939 3,246 BUY 3,530 171.0 183.4 208.2 19.0 17.7 15.6 21.3 20.3 20.4 Eicher 592 21,701 NEU 19,650 758.6 820.1 969.2 28.6 26.4 22.4 21.2 19.5 19.6 Hero Motocorp 529 2,647 BUY 3,460 168.0 180.5 204.5 15.8 14.7 12.9 24.1 22.7 22.8 Maruti Suzuki 2,175 7,201 NEU 6,770 222.3 284.0 331.1 32.4 25.4 21.7 13.8 15.9 16.6

Source: HDFC sec Inst Research

Change in estimates

New Old % Change

FY20 FY21 FY22 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY20 FY21 FY22 Net Revenue 97,253 108,138 121,712 95,429 106,008 117,853 2 2 3 EBITDA 24,393 27,061 31,238 24,405 26,943 30,471 (0) 0 3 EBITDA margin (%) 25.1 25.0 25.7 25.6 25.4 25.9 -49 bps -39 bps -19 bps PAT 20,678 22,356 26,421 20,417 22,231 25,141 1 1 5 EPS 758.6 820.1 969.2 749.0 815.5 922.3 1 1 5 Source: HDFC sec Inst Research

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EICHER MOTORS: RESULTS REVIEW 2QFY20

Income Statement (Consolidated) (Rs mn) FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E Net Revenues 89,650 97,971 97,253 108,138 121,712 Growth (%) 27.5 9.3 (0.7) 11.2 12.6 Material Expenses 46,435 50,574 52,892 59,138 66,319 Employee Expenses 5,737 7,024 7,778 8,217 9,126 Other Operating Expenses 9,402 11,341 12,190 13,724 15,028 Total Expenses 61,573 68,940 72,860 81,078 90,474 EBITDA 28,076 29,031 24,393 27,061 31,238 EBITDA Margin (%) 31.3 29.6 25.1 25.0 25.7 EBITDA Growth (%) 29.1 3.4 (16.0) 10.9 15.4 Depreciation 2,233 3,003 3,587 3,910 4,301 EBIT 25,843 26,028 20,806 23,151 26,937 Other Income (Including EO Items) 601 4,259 5,014 5,121 5,874 Interest 53 73 134 137 144 PBT 26,390 30,214 25,686 28,135 32,668 Tax (Incl Deferred) 9,359 10,770 6,036 7,090 8,232 Share of profit from JV 2,566 2,584 1,029 1,311 1,985 RPAT 19,597 22,027 20,678 22,356 26,421 EO (Loss) / Profit (Net Of Tax) (2,201) (175) - - - APAT 21,797 22,203 20,678 22,356 26,421 APAT Growth (%) 27.2 1.9 (6.9) 8.1 18.2 Adjusted EPS (Rs) 799.6 814.5 758.6 820.1 969.2 EPS Growth (%) 27.0 1.9 (6.9) 8.1 18.2 Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Balance Sheet (Consolidated) (Rs mn) FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E SOURCES OF FUNDS Share Capital - Equity 273 273 273 273 273 Reserves 70,028 88,914 105,594 123,683 145,212 Total Shareholders Funds 70,301 89,187 105,867 123,955 145,484 Total Debt 1,508 1,868 1,961 2,059 2,162 Net Deferred Taxes 1,421 2,739 2,766 2,794 2,822 TOTAL SOURCES OF FUNDS 73,230 93,794 110,594 128,808 150,468 APPLICATION OF FUNDS Net Block 15,017 18,746 21,659 23,794 25,595 CWIP 3,332 4,497 4,797 5,097 5,397 Investments 17,643 19,439 19,703 20,498 21,813 Total Non-current Assets 35,992 42,682 46,159 49,389 52,805 Cash & Equivalents 50,286 59,439 72,405 88,438 107,614 Inventories 3,946 6,334 6,395 6,814 7,670 Debtors 680 903 1,332 1,481 1,667 Other Current Assets 4,319 4,510 4,848 5,239 5,666 Total Current Assets 59,231 71,186 84,980 101,972 122,617 Creditors 11,719 12,341 12,257 13,628 15,339 Other Current Liabilities & Provns 10,274 7,734 8,288 8,924 9,614 Total Current Liabilities 21,992 20,075 20,545 22,553 24,953 Net Current Assets 37,238 51,111 64,435 79,419 97,663 TOTAL APPLICATION OF FUNDS 73,230 93,794 110,594 128,808 150,468 Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

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EICHER MOTORS: RESULTS REVIEW 2QFY20

Cash Flow (Consolidated) (Rsmn) FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E Reported PBT 28,956 32,798 26,714 29,446 34,653 Non-operating & EO Items (601) (4,259) (5,014) (5,121) (5,874) Interest Expenses 53 73 134 137 144 Depreciation 2,233 3,003 3,587 3,910 4,301 Working Capital Change 5,133 (4,720) (358) 1,048 932 Tax Paid (8,716) (9,452) (6,009) (7,062) (8,204) OPERATING CASH FLOW ( a ) 27,058 17,443 19,055 22,358 25,952 Capex (8,117) (7,897) (6,800) (6,345) (6,402) Free Cash Flow (FCF) 18,942 9,546 12,255 16,013 19,550 Investments (185) (1,797) (264) (795) (1,315) Non-operating Income 601 4,259 5,014 5,121 5,874 INVESTING CASH FLOW ( b ) (7,701) (5,435) (2,050) (2,019) (1,843) Debt Issuance/(Repaid) 1,064 359 93 98 103 Interest Expenses (53) (73) (134) (137) (144) FCFE 19,953 9,832 12,215 15,974 19,509 Share Capital Issuance 746 832 (0) (0) (0) Dividend (3,493) (3,973) (3,998) (4,268) (4,891) FINANCING CASH FLOW ( c ) (1,736) (2,855) (4,039) (4,307) (4,932) NET CASH FLOW (a+b+c) 17,622 9,153 12,967 16,032 19,177 Closing Cash & Equivalents 50,286 59,439 72,405 88,438 107,614 Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Key Ratios (Consolidated) FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E PROFITABILITY (%) GPM 48.2 48.4 45.6 45.3 45.5 EBITDA Margin 31.3 29.6 25.1 25.0 25.7 EBIT Margin 28.8 26.6 21.4 21.4 22.1 APAT Margin 24.3 22.7 21.3 20.7 21.7 RoE 35.2 27.8 21.2 19.5 19.6 RoIC (or Core RoCE) 74.2 58.5 43.9 44.1 48.4 RoCE 26.1 20.1 15.6 14.5 14.4 EFFICIENCY Tax Rate (%) 35.5 35.6 23.5 25.2 25.2 Fixed Asset Turnover (x) 6.0 5.2 4.5 4.5 4.8 Inventory (days) 16.1 23.6 24.0 23.0 23.0 Debtors (days) 2.8 3.4 5.0 5.0 5.0 Other Current Assets (days) 17.6 16.8 18.2 17.7 17.0 Payables (days) 47.7 46.0 46.0 46.0 46.0 Other Current Liab & Provns (days) 41.8 28.8 31.1 30.1 28.8 Cash Conversion Cycle (days) (53.1) (31.0) (29.9) (30.4) (29.8) Debt/EBITDA (x) (1.7) (2.0) (2.9) (3.2) (3.4) Net D/E (x) (0.7) (0.6) (0.7) (0.7) (0.7) Interest Coverage (x) 484.0 355.1 155.3 169.4 187.7 PER SHARE DATA (Rs) EPS 799.6 814.5 758.6 820.1 969.2 CEPS 800.8 918.2 890.1 963.5 1,127.0 Dividend 110.0 125.1 125.9 134.4 154.0 Book Value 2,579 3,272 3,884 4,547 5,337 VALUATION P/E (x) 27.1 26.6 28.6 26.4 22.4 P/BV (x) 8.4 6.6 5.6 4.8 4.1 EV/EBITDA (x) 19.3 18.4 21.4 18.7 15.6 EV/Revenues (x) 6.1 5.4 5.4 4.7 4.0 OCF/EV (%) 5.0 3.3 3.7 4.4 5.3 FCF/EV (%) 3.5 1.8 2.4 3.2 4.0 FCFE/Mkt Cap (%) 3.4 1.7 2.1 2.7 3.3 Dividend Yield (%) 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

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EICHER MOTORS: RESULTS REVIEW 2QFY20

RECOMMENDATION HISTORY

Rating Definitions BUY : Where the stock is expected to deliver more than 10% returns over the next 12 month period NEUTRAL : Where the stock is expected to deliver (-)10% to 10% returns over the next 12 month period SELL : Where the stock is expected to deliver less than (-)10% returns over the next 12 month period

Date CMP Reco Target 15-Mar-19 22,612 SELL 21,000 12-Apr-19 20,998 SELL 21,000 13-May-19 20,354 SELL 18,900 10-Jul-19 19,039 SELL 17,150 1-Aug-19 16,348 SELL 14,760 22-Sep-19 17,860 NEU 16,280 11-Oct-19 18,201 NEU 16,280 9-Nov-19 21,701 NEU 19,650

13,00015,00017,00019,00021,00023,00025,00027,00029,000

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Eicher TP

HDFC securities Institutional Equities Unit No. 1602, 16th Floor, Tower A, Peninsula Business Park, SenapatiBapatMarg, Lower Parel,Mumbai - 400 013 Board : +91-22-6171 7330 www.hdfcsec.com

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EICHER MOTORS: RESULTS REVIEW 2QFY20

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